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Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss recent trends in public-administration-led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used.
Abstract: This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

52 citations

BookDOI
01 Jan 2018
TL;DR: Agrimonde-Terra as discussed by the authors proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios.
Abstract: After a first foresight study on "World food security in 2050" (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled "Metropolization", "Regionalization" and "Households" are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled "Healthy" and "Communities" involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The "Healthy" scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the "Metropolization" scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.

52 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) as mentioned in this paper was a foresight program for transition countries, which was based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs.
Abstract: Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

52 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed that the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences and that demographic change has been recognized as a key determinant for explaining social change, since age transition can explain a wide range of socioeconomic changes.
Abstract: The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences. Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence.

52 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focused on long distance freight transport and explored possible sustainable futures through quantitative modeling, and developed an emission model with random parameter combinations to screen a set of sustainable futures, with an 80% reduction of GHG emissions and fossil fuel share.

52 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20241
2023323
2022665
2021145
2020155
2019173