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Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.


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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a comparative analysis of planning approaches in two organisations linked through common ownership is presented, where data generated from planning documentation and the foresight practice of strategy personnel in the two cases (transport and banking) provided support for a dynamic model of foresight integrated LT planning.

50 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors distinguish three different modes of orientation which can be delivered by future studies and reflections, and suggest a "mode 3" type orientation: even diverging future studies' results can be made subject to a 'hermeneutics' of the present, where we can learn about ourselves from the diversity, variety and divergence of statements about the future.
Abstract: Debates about the future are an essential medium of modern societies’ self-understanding and governance. In this context, future studies and reflections are frequently advising decision-making processes. But the considerable diversity of statements about the future and the divergence which often becomes apparent regarding the prospects of the future threaten the possibility of delivering the desired orientation. The more divergent the envisioned futures, the more providing reliable orientation might be without any chance of success. Against this background the aim of this paper is to distinguish three different modes of orientation which can be delivered by future studies and reflections. The mode 1 orientation corresponds to the decision-theoretical model: Statements about the future are interpreted as a reliable framework into which decisions and actions have to fit as good as possible. If future studies result in strongly diverse statements (e.g. in the field of energy scenarios), orientation is only possible in a mode 2 understanding: the futures form a set of diverse possibilities within which some “robust” strategies for action might be identified. But what is beyond this distinction? If futures would completely diverge between, so to speak, paradise and apocalypse, even the mode 2 approach would no longer work (this case applies to some recent debates on new and emerging sciences and technologies). For this case I would like to suggest a ‘mode 3’ type orientation: even diverging future studies’ results can be made subject to a ‘hermeneutics’ of the present, where we can learn about ourselves from the diversity, variety and divergence of statements about the future. What we can learn from this consideration that there are extremely different ways to benefit from reflections on the future. Their feasibility depends on an epistemological issue: do images of the future in a certain context converge as soon as more reliable knowledge is fed in, or is diversity or divergence persistent?

50 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors argue that foresight is primarily grounded in human capacities and needs and that a more critical and egalitarian type of foresight needs to be pursued for cultural innovation beyond the industrial worldview.

50 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the shadows of time and chronotopes are defined as an asymmetric literary genre in futures studies of change management, pointing toward the understanding of time as a narrative concept.
Abstract: This article aims to present and explain `time' as a theoretical and a narrative concept. Most studies of change management define time as chronological time. This article presents two alternative time definitions: the shadows of time and the chronotopes, pointing toward understanding time as an asymmetric literary genre in futures studies of change management.

49 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the 1995-1999 foresight program of the Dutch National Council for Agricultural Research, and evaluated some key dimensions of the foresight process, including the selection and range of participants, the immediate impact of interactive tools such as workshops and the ultimate effect on the strategic thinking in the agricultural sector.
Abstract: Science and Technology Foresight (STF) is an interactive and systematic exploration of future dynamics of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying and supporting viable strategies and actions for stakeholders. In comparison to futures studies and forecasting, the literature on foresight has paid little attention to its actual strategic value. In this paper we review the 1995-1999 foresight programme of the Dutch National Council for Agricultural Research, and evaluate some key dimensions of the foresight process, including the selection and range of participants, the immediate impact of interactive tools such as workshops and the ultimate effect on the strategic thinking in the agricultural sector. The evaluation indicates that strategic thinking in the Dutch agricultural sector has improved. The paper concludes with suggestions for monitoring and evaluation of foresight that may increase the understanding of foresight's strategic value.

49 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20241
2023323
2022665
2021145
2020155
2019173