Futures studies

About: Futures studies is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2996 publications have been published within this topic receiving 49505 citations. The topic is also known as: futurology & futurism.

Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight

Abstract: – The objective of this paper is to contribute to improved practice and impact of foresight through the development and testing of a Foresight Impact Evaluation Schema. The schema is designed to guide foresight practitioners in the more effective design and conduct of foresight exercises to optimise impact., – The development of the schema is based on the significant previous work in this field, and the author's experience of designing and managing more than 100 foresight projects. It also takes into account accumulated experience with heuristics developed to guide foresight design and management, and with various approaches to evaluating the impact of social science knowledge on policy‐ and decision‐making., – A range of impacts identified from major foresight projects have been characterised according to four categories of impact ‐ awareness raising, informing policy, enabling greater capacity to address uncertainty, and influencing policy, strategy, investment, program delivery and public attitudes., – The schema needs to be tested against a variety of foresight projects to further refine its usefulness., – With the rapid growth of the application of foresight, it has become essential to guide practitioners in the appropriate design and management of all the processes associated with foresight to achieve maximum impact, and to demonstrate the value of the investment in foresight to consequent policy and planning., – This paper builds on earlier and contemporary work to develop a more refined and applicable schema to guide foresight impact evaluation.

System Innovation for Sustainability: A Scenario Method and a Workshop Process for Product Development Teams

Abstract: The overall objective of this research was to effectively link the activities/decisions at product development (micro-innovation) level in companies with the transformation which needs to take place at the societal (macro-innovation) level to achieve sustainability. The research took place in three phases. In the first phase a broad literature review was carried out which covered areas of sustainability science, futures studies and system innovation theory. In the second phase, based on the findings and insights gathered from the review of the literature, a theoretical framework was developed explaining how activities and decisions at product development level relates to the long term and structural changes required at the socio-technical system level to achieve sustainability. This theoretical framework was used to develop a scenario method to help product development teams in planning for system innovation for sustainability. The third phase of the research consisted of field work carried out to test, improve and evaluate the scenario method following an action research methodology. The results of the field work indicated that the scenario method can aid product development teams to incorporate sustainability issues into their decision making in an effective way and can influence the business transformation which needs to take place as part of the societal transformation to achieve sustainability. Three outstanding issues related to the scenario method remain as potential areas for improvement and/or further research: 1) The trade-off between the time/cost efficiency of the scenario method and the depth of the output which can be achieved using it; 2) The conflict between the time horizon prescribed to be used by the scenario method and the planning periods conventionally used by businesses which is only a fraction of the time required to transform socio-technical systems, and; 3) The wider application scope of the scenario method.

Artificial Intelligence in Innovation: How to Spot Emerging Trends and Technologies

Abstract: Firms apply strategic foresight in technology and innovation management to detect discontinuous changes early, to assess their expected consequences, and to develop a future course of action enabling superior company performance. For this purpose, an ever-increasing amount of data has to be collected, analyzed, and interpreted. Still, a major part of these activities is performed manually, which requires high investments in various resources. To support these processes more efficiently, this article presents an artificial-intelligence-based data mining model that helps firms spot emerging topics and trends at a higher level of automation than before. Its modular structure consists of components for query generation, data collection, data preprocessing, topic modeling, topic analysis, and visualization, combined in such a way that only a minimum amount of manual effort is required during its initial set up. The approach also incorporates self-adaptive capabilities, allowing the model to automatically update itself once new data has become available. The model parameterization is based on latest research in this area, and its threshold parameter is learnt during supervised training using a training data set. We have applied our model to an independent test data set to verify its effectiveness as an early warning system. By means of a retrospective analysis, we show in three case studies that our model is able to identify emerging technologies prior to their first publication in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. Based on our findings, we derive both theoretical and practical implications for the technology and innovation management of firms, and we suggest future research opportunities to further advance this field.

Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities

Abstract: Two apparently independent management disciplines – Strategic Planning and Futures Studies --are converging through joint application in practice and their literatures. The two disciplines enhance each other; yet, in the academic community, they remain largely detached and ignorant of each other. The primary purpose of this article is to acknowledge and explore the methodological intersections and complementarities of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies. In the academy, Strategic Planning was the predecessor of contemporary Strategic Management. But, Strategic Planning was essentially abandoned by the academy in the 1980s. Subsequently, a new community of strategic planning methodologists – comprised largely of futurists – emerged. Futures studies have enabled strategists to use planning models more productively by clarifying vital issues such as impending and potential changes in economic, industry and market structures; drivers of rivalry; technology; and supply/demand balances. Concurrently, the strategic planning model provides a structure for integrating and organizing the many methods and techniques that are used by futurists. Thus, Futures Studies and Strategic Planning are highly complementary. A second purpose of this article therefore is to stimulate a more productive conversation between these two disciplines and to encourage their collaboration in the academy.