Graphical model

About: Graphical model is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 10476 publications have been published within this topic receiving 415620 citations.

Probabilistic topic models

Abstract: Probabilistic topic modeling provides a suite of tools for the unsupervised analysis of large collections of documents. Topic modeling algorithms can uncover the underlying themes of a collection and decompose its documents according to those themes. This analysis can be used for corpus exploration, document search, and a variety of prediction problems.In this tutorial, I will review the state-of-the-art in probabilistic topic models. I will describe the three components of topic modeling:(1) Topic modeling assumptions(2) Algorithms for computing with topic models(3) Applications of topic modelsIn (1), I will describe latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), which is one of the simplest topic models, and then describe a variety of ways that we can build on it. These include dynamic topic models, correlated topic models, supervised topic models, author-topic models, bursty topic models, Bayesian nonparametric topic models, and others. I will also discuss some of the fundamental statistical ideas that are used in building topic models, such as distributions on the simplex, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, and models of mixed-membership.In (2), I will review how we compute with topic models. I will describe approximate posterior inference for directed graphical models using both sampling and variational inference, and I will discuss the practical issues and pitfalls in developing these algorithms for topic models. Finally, I will describe some of our most recent work on building algorithms that can scale to millions of documents and documents arriving in a stream.In (3), I will discuss applications of topic models. These include applications to images, music, social networks, and other data in which we hope to uncover hidden patterns. I will describe some of our recent work on adapting topic modeling algorithms to collaborative filtering, legislative modeling, and bibliometrics without citations.Finally, I will discuss some future directions and open research problems in topic models.

Graphical Models, Exponential Families, and Variational Inference

Abstract: The formalism of probabilistic graphical models provides a unifying framework for capturing complex dependencies among random variables, and building large-scale multivariate statistical models. Graphical models have become a focus of research in many statistical, computational and mathematical fields, including bioinformatics, communication theory, statistical physics, combinatorial optimization, signal and image processing, information retrieval and statistical machine learning. Many problems that arise in specific instances — including the key problems of computing marginals and modes of probability distributions — are best studied in the general setting. Working with exponential family representations, and exploiting the conjugate duality between the cumulant function and the entropy for exponential families, we develop general variational representations of the problems of computing likelihoods, marginal probabilities and most probable configurations. We describe how a wide variety of algorithms — among them sum-product, cluster variational methods, expectation-propagation, mean field methods, max-product and linear programming relaxation, as well as conic programming relaxations — can all be understood in terms of exact or approximate forms of these variational representations. The variational approach provides a complementary alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo as a general source of approximation methods for inference in large-scale statistical models.

An introduction to variational methods for graphical models

Abstract: This paper presents a tutorial introduction to the use of variational methods for inference and learning in graphical models (Bayesian networks and Markov random fields). We present a number of examples of graphical models, including the QMR-DT database, the sigmoid belief network, the Boltzmann machine, and several variants of hidden Markov models, in which it is infeasible to run exact inference algorithms. We then introduce variational methods, which exploit laws of large numbers to transform the original graphical model into a simplified graphical model in which inference is efficient. Inference in the simpified model provides bounds on probabilities of interest in the original model. We describe a general framework for generating variational transformations based on convex duality. Finally we return to the examples and demonstrate how variational algorithms can be formulated in each case.

A Bayesian Method for the Induction of Probabilistic Networks from Data

Abstract: This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. We extend the basic method to handle missing data and hidden (latent) variables. We show how to perform probabilistic inference by averaging over the inferences of multiple belief networks. Results are presented of a preliminary evaluation of an algorithm for constructing a belief network from a database of cases. Finally, we relate the methods in this paper to previous work, and we discuss open problems.

Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial

Abstract: Standard statistical practice ignores model uncertainty. Data analysts typically select a model from some class of models and then proceed as if the selected model had generated the data. This approach ignores the uncertainty in model selection, leading to over-confident inferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are. Bayesian model averaging (BMA)provides a coherent mechanism for accounting for this model uncertainty. Several methods for implementing BMA have recently emerged. We discuss these methods and present a number of examples.In these examples, BMA provides improved out-of-sample predictive performance. We also provide a catalogue of currently available BMA software.