Showing papers on "Inflation published in 1996"

The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation

Abstract: THE CONCEPT of a natural unemployment rate has been central to most modern models of inflation and stabilization. According to these models, inflation will accelerate or decelerate depending on whether unemployment is below or above the natural rate, while any existing rate of inflation will continue if unemployment is at the natural rate. The natural rate is thus the minimum, and only, sustainable rate of unemployment, but the inflation rate is left as a choice variable for policymakers. Since complete price stability has attractive features, many economists and policymakers who accept the natural rate hypothesis believe that central banks should target zero inflation. We question the standard version of the natural rate model and each of these implications. Central to our analysis is the effect of downward nominal wage rigidity in an economy in which individual firms experience stochastic shocks in the demand for their output. We embed these features in a model that otherwise resembles a standard natural rate model and show there is no unique natural unemployment rate. Rather, the rate of unemployment that is consistent with steady inflation

An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts

Abstract: The authors consider the time-series behavior of the U.S. real interest rate from 1961 to 1986, using the methodology of James D. Hamilton (1989), by allowing three possible regimes affecting both the mean and variance. The results suggest that the ex-post real interest rate is essentially random with means and variances that are different for the periods 1961-73, 1973-80, and 1980-86. The inflation rate series also shows interesting shifts in both mean and variance. Series for the ex-ante real interest rate and expected inflation are constructed. Finally, the authors make clear how their results can explain some recent findings in the literature. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper examines the possibility of nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. It finds evidence of a significant structural break in the function that relates economic growth to inflation. The break is estimated to occur when the inflation rate is 8 percent. Below that rate, inflation does not have any effect on growth, or it may even have a slightly positive effect. When the inflation rate is above 8 percent, however, the estimated effect of inflation on growth rates is significant, robust, and extremely powerful. The paper also demonstrates that when the existence of the structural break is ignored, the estimated effect of inflation on growth is biased by a factor of three.

How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy

Abstract: This paper analyzes German monetary policy in the post-Bretton Woods era. Despite the public focus on monetary targeting, in practice, German monetary policy involves the management of short term interest rates, as it does in the United States. Except during the mid to late 1970s, the Bundesbank has aggressively adjusted interest rates to achieve and maintain low inflation. The performance of the real economy, however, also influences its decision-making. Our formal analysis suggests that the Bundesbank has adjusted short term interest rates according to a modified version of the feedback rule that Taylor (1994) has used to characterize the behavior of the Federal Reserve Board under Alan Greenspan.

Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience

Abstract: This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.

Inflation and Growth

Abstract: country mean of inflation exceeded the median for each decade. This property reflects the skewing of inflation rates to the right, as shown in Figure 1. That is, there are a number of outliers with positive inflation rates of large magnitude, but none with negative inflation rates of high magnitude. Because this skewness increased in the 1980s, the mean inflation rate rose from the 1970s to the 1980s, although the median rate declined.

What Does the Bundesbank Target

Abstract: Although its primary ultimate objective is price stability, the Bundesbank has drawn a distinction between its money-focus strategy and the inflation targeting approach recently adopted by a number of central banks. We show that, holding constant the current forecast of inflation, German monetary policy responds very little to changes in forecasted money growth; we conclude that the Bundesbank is much better described as an inflation targeter than as a money targeter. An additional contribution of the paper is to apply the structural VAR methods of Bernanke and Mihov (1995) to determine the optimal indicator of German monetary policy: We find that the Lombard rate has historically been a good policy indicator, although the use of the call rate as an indicator cannot be statistically rejected.

How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post-Communist Countries

Abstract: BETWEEN 1989 AND 1991 the collapse of the Soviet bloc brought down the established political system in a number of countries.' With the rapid decline of the communist party's power throughout the region, and particularly following the collapse of the Soviet Union, it proved impossible to maintain an economic system based on hierarchical subordination, predominant state ownership, and a command-rationing allocation mechanism.2 All previously communist-controlled countries therefore inherited both an economic system that no longer functioned properly and a political struggle for power. The central problem has proved to be one of controlling inflation. In theory, liberalization and privatization can take place without price stabilization, but in practice this combination has not proved effective. At least in these countries, it has not proved possible to balance the budget or control monetary emission without large cuts in subsidies and

Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries

Abstract: This paper attempts to explain the differences in inflation performance across countries. Earlier research has examined this topic, but it has considered only some of the factors that might be empirically important determinants of inflation rates. We consider the distaste for inflation, optimal tax considerations, time consistency issues, distortionary non-inflation policies and other factors that might be empirically important determinants of inflation performance. Overall, the results suggest that institutional arrangements - central bank independence or exchange rate mechanisms - are relatively unimportant determinants of inflation performance, while economic fundamentals - openness and optimal tax considerations - are relatively important determinants.

Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?

Abstract: One of the basic tenets of Keynesian economics is that labor market institutions cause downward nominal wage rigidity. We attempt to evaluate the evidence that relative wage adjustments occur more quickly in higher-inflation environments. Using matched individual wage data from consecutive years, we find that about 6-10 percent of workers experience wage rigidity in a 10-percent inflation environment, while this proportion rises to over 15 percent when inflation is less than 5 percent. By invoking a simple symmetry assumption, we generate counterfactual distributions of wage changes from the distributions of actual wage changes. Using these counterfactual distributions, we estimate that, over the sample period, a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate reduces the fraction of workers affected by downward nominal rigidities by about 0.5 percent, and slows the rate of real wage growth by about 0.06 percent. Using state-level data, the analysis of the effects of nominal rigidities is less conclusive. We find only a weak statistical relationship between the rate of inflation and the pace of relative wage adjustments across local labor markets.

Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century

Abstract: Inflation targeting is a monetary policy rule that has implications for both the average performance of an economy and its business cycle behavior. We use a modern, rational expectations model to study the twin effects of this policy rule. The model highlights forward- looking consumption and labor supply decisions by households and forward-looking investment and price-setting decisions by firms. In it, monetary policy has real effects because imperfectly competitive firms are constrained to adjust prices only infrequently and satisfy all demand at posted prices. In this 'sticky price' model, there are also effects of the average rate of inflation on the amount of time that individuals must devote to shopping activity and on the average markup of price over cost that firms can charge. However, in terms of the welfare effects of long-run inflation, it is optimal to set monetary policy so that the nominal interest rate is close to zero, replicating in an imperfectly competitive model the result that Friedman found under perfect competition. A perfect inflation target has desirable effects on the response of the macroeconomy to permanent shocks to productivity and money demand. Under such a policy rule, the monetary authority makes the money supply evolve so a model with sticky prices behaves much like one with flexible prices.

Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?

Abstract: Price level targeting (without base drift) and inflation targeting (with base drift) are compared under commitment and discretion, with persistence in unemployment. Price level targeting is often said to imply more short-run inflation variability and thereby more employment variability than inflation targeting. Counter to this conventional wisdom, under discretion a price level target results in lower inflation variability than an inflation target (if unemployment is at least moderately persistent). A price level target also eliminates the inflation bias under discretion and, as is well known, reduces long-term price variability. Society may be better off assigning a price level target to the central bank even if its preferences correspond to inflation targeting. A price level target thus appears to have more advantages than commonly acknowledged.

How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Abstract: This paper investigates the precision of conventional and unconventional estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (the 'NAIRU'). The main finding is that the NAIRU is imprecisely estimated: a typical 95% confidence interval for the NAIRU in 1990 is 5.1% to 7.7%. This imprecision obtains whether the natural rate is modeled as a constant, as a slowly changing function of time, as an unobserved random walk, or as a function of various labor market fundamentals; it obtains using other series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or quarterly data, and using various measures for expected inflation. This imprecision suggests caution in using the NAIRU to guide monetary policy.

Inflation and growth

Abstract: country mean of inflation exceeded the median for each decade. This property reflects the skewing of inflation rates to the right, as shown in Figure 1. That is, there are a number of outliers with positive inflation rates of large magnitude, but none with negative inflation rates of high magnitude. Because this skewness increased in the 1980s, the mean inflation rate rose from the 1970s to the 1980s, although the median rate declined.

The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation

Abstract: This paper explores the theoretical foundations of a new approach to monetary policy. Proponents of this approach hold that, when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the central bank should not take deliberate anti-inflation action but, rather, should wait for exogenous circumstances – such as favourable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions – to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances to arise, the central bank should aggressively resist incipient increases in inflation. This strategy has come to be known as ‘the opportunistic approach to disinflation’. We deduce policy maker preferences that rationalize the opportunistic approach as the optimal strategy for disinflation in the context of a model that is standard in other respects. The policy maker who is endowed with these preferences tends to focus on stabilizing output when inflation is low, but on fighting inflation when inflation is high. We contrast the opportunistic approach to a more conventional strategy derived from strictly quadratic preferences.

A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles

Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a monetary model that offers an explanation of some puzzling features of observed returns on equities and default-free bonds. The key feature of the model is that some assets other than money play a special role in facilitating transactions, which affects the rate of return that they offer. The model is capable of producing a low risk-free rate, a high equity premium, and an average positive relationship between maturity and term premium for default-free bonds. The model's implications for the joint distribution of asset returns, velocity, inflation, money growth, and consumption growth are also compared to the behavior of these variables in the U.S. economy.

Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies; The Early Experience

Abstract: This paper analyzes the growth and stabilization experience in 26 transition economies in eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-1994. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Growth resumes after stabilization occurs, typically with a lag of about two years. Reducing inflation thus appears to be a precondition for growth. An econometric analysis of the short-run determinants of inflation and growth illustrates the key roles of fixed exchange rates, improved fiscal balances, and structural reforms in spurring growth and lowering inflation, and confirms that inflation stabilization programs have been beneficial for growth even after controlling for structural reforms.

Inflation targeting in a St. Louis model of the 21st century

Abstract: Inflation targeting is a monetary policy rule that has implications for both the average performance of an economy and its business cycle behavior. We use a modern, rational expectations model to study the twin effects of this policy rule. The model highlights forward- looking consumption and labor supply decisions by households and forward-looking investment and price-setting decisions by firms. In it, monetary policy has real effects because imperfectly competitive firms are constrained to adjust prices only infrequently and satisfy all demand at posted prices. In this 'sticky price' model, there are also effects of the average rate of inflation on the amount of time that individuals must devote to shopping activity and on the average markup of price over cost that firms can charge. However, in terms of the welfare effects of long-run inflation, it is optimal to set monetary policy so that the nominal interest rate is close to zero, replicating in an imperfectly competitive model the result that Friedman found under perfect competition. A perfect inflation target has desirable effects on the response of the macroeconomy to permanent shocks to productivity and money demand. Under such a policy rule, the monetary authority makes the money supply evolve so a model with sticky prices behaves much like one with flexible prices.

Disinflation and the NAIRU

Abstract: This paper asks why the NAIRU rose in most OECD countries in the 1980s. I find that a central cause was the tight monetary policy used to reduce inflation. The evidence comes from a cross-country comparison: countries with larger decreases in inflation and longer disinflationary periods have larger rises in the NAIRU. Imperfections in the labor market have little direct relation to changes in the NAIRU, but long-term unemployment benefits magnify the effects of disinflation. These results support `hysteresis' theories of unemployment.

Inflation and Growth: In Search of a Stable Relationship

Abstract: A re inflation and growth inversely associated, directly associated, or not associated? Is the empirical inflationgrowth relationship primarily a long-run relationship across countries, a shortrun relationship across time, or both? Like a bickering couple, inflation and growth just cannot seem to decide what their relationship should be. In this article, we characterize the literature on inflation and growth. Aware of the limits of our comparative advantage, we do not intend to do a general survey of the literature. Instead, we look at the aspects of the literature that motivated us to pursue one particular angle in our own recent work: the behavior of growth before, during, and after discrete high inflation crises.

Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation

Abstract: A number of analysts have claimed recently that the consumer price index overstates the annual increase in the cost of living. This paper develops a framework for studying measurement problems in the consumer price index and systematically analyzes the available evidence concerning the magnitude of these problems. It concludes that the CPI overstates increases in the cost of living. The evidence suggests that the bias is centered on 1.0 percentage point per year. The extent of this bias is not known exactly. To take into account this uncertainty, the estimated bias is presented in terms of a probability distribution rather than a point estimate or range. We estimate that there is a 10 percent chance that the bias is less than 0.6 percentage point and a 10 percent chance that it is greater than 1.5 percentage points per year. CPI procedures overstate the rate of inflation for medical procedures that are subject to technological improvement. To illustrate this point and to show how better to measure medical care prices, the paper presents a prototypical price index for cataract surgery. This price index grows much more slowly than a price index for cataract surgery constructed using the methodology of the CPI. The paper discusses implications of CPI mismeasurement for monetary and fiscal policy as well as for other official statistics. It also offers some suggestions for improving the CPI.

Inflation, Asset Prices, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Monetary Economics

Abstract: This article offers a tractable monetary asset pricing model. In monetary economies, the price level, inflation, asset prices, and the real and nominal interest rates have to be determined simultaneously and in relation to each other. This link allows us to relate in closed form each of the dependent entities to the underlying real and monetary variables. Among other features of such economies, inflation can be partially nonmonetary and the real and nominal term structures can depend on fundamentally different risk factors. In one extreme, the process followed by the real term structure is independent of that followed by its nominal counterpart. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices

Abstract: This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation follow simple time-series processes whose parameters can be estimated from the cross-section of bond prices. The extracted inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate is highly variable at short horizons, but comparatively stable at long horizons. Changes in real rates and expected inflation are strongly negatively correlated at short horizons, but not at long horizons.

A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets

Abstract: The cutting edge of recent efforts to reshape monetary policy in many countries has been to impose a price target on the central bank. This paper examines such a policy in light of the Federal Reserve System's experience with money targeting from the late 1970s through the mid 1980s. The empirical analysis documents the Federal Reserve's initial use and subsequent disregard of money growth targets, and shows that abandoning these targets was a sensible response to the changing mix of shocks affecting the U.S. economy -- specifically, an increase in the relative volatility of money demand shocks. This experience provides little ground for confidence that a price target would be optimal for U.S. monetary policy. Even if the structure of the relevant shocks at any particular time were to appear favorable, a policy based on a price target would likewise be undermined if the relative volatility of aggregate supply shocks increased.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets

Abstract: Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting : the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementaing and monitoring of monetary policy.

Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?

Abstract: If nominal wages are downward rigid, moderate levels of inflation may improve labor market efficiency by facilitating real wage cuts. In this paper we attempt to test the hypothesis that downward real wage changes occur more readily in higher-inflation environments. Using individual wage change data from two sources, we find that about 6-10 percent of workers experience nominally rigid wages in a 10- percent inflation environment. This proportion rises to over 15 percent at a 5 percent inflation rate. We use the assumption of symmetry to generate counterfactual distributions of real wage changes in the absence of rigidities. These counterfactual distributions suggest that a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate reduces the fraction of workers with downward-rigid wages by about 0.8 percent, and allows real wages to fall about 0.06 percent faster. A market- level analysis of the effects of nominal rigidities, based on wage growth and unemployment at the state level, is less conclusive. We find only a weak statistical relationship between the rate of inflation and the pace of relative wage adjustments across local labor markets.

Why Do People Dislike Inflation

Abstract: A questionnaire survey was conducted to explore how people think about inflation, and what real problems they see it as causing. With results from 677 people, comparisons were made among people in the US, Germany, and Brazil, between young and old, and between economists and non-economists. Among non-economists in all countries, the largest concern with inflation appears to be that it lowers people's standard of living. Non-economists appear often to believe in a sort of sticky-wage model, by which wages do not respond to inflationary shocks, shocks which are themselves perceived as caused by certain people or institutions acting badly. This standard of living effect is not the only perceived cost of inflation among non-economists: other perceived costs are tied up with issues of exploitation, political instability, loss of morale, and damage to national prestige. The most striking differences between groups studied were between economists and non-economists. There were also important international and intergenerational differences. The US - Germany differences (on questions not just about information) were usually less strong than the intergenerational differences.