Inflation

About: Inflation is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 43124 publications have been published within this topic receiving 916968 citations.

A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model

Abstract: A discretionary policymaker can create surprise inflation, which may reduce employment and raise government revenue. But when people understand the policymaker's objectives, these surprises cannot occur systematically. In equilibrium people form expectations rationally and the policymaker optimizes in each period, subject to the way that people form expectations. Then, we find that (1) the rates of monetary growth and inflation are excessive; (2) these rates depend on the slope of Phillips curve, the natural unemployment rate, and other variables that affect the benefits and costs from inflation; (3) the monetary authority behaves countercyclically; and (4) unemployment is independent of money policy. Outcomes improve if rules commit future policy choices in the appropriate manner. The value of these commitments--which amount to long-term contracts between the government and the private sector--underlies the argument for rules over discretion.

An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy

Abstract: This paper considers a simple quantitative model of output, interest rate and inflation determination in the United States, and uses it to evaluate alternative rules by which the Fed may set interest rates. The model is derived from optimizing behavior under rational expectations, both on the part of the purchasers of goods (who choose quantities to purchase given the expected path of real interest rates), and upon that of the sellers of goods (who set prices on the basis of the expected evolution of demand). Numerical parameter values are obtained in part by seeking to match the actual responses of the economy to a monetary shock to the responses predicted by the model. The resulting model matches the empirical responses quite well and, once due account is taken of its structural disturbances, can account for our data nearly as well as an unrestricted VAR. The monetary policy rule that most reduces inflation variability (and is best on this account) requires very variable interest rates, which in turn is...

Monetary Theory and Policy

Abstract: Part 1 Empirical evidence on money and output: introduction some basic correlations estimating the effect of money on output summary. Part 2 Money in a general equilibrium framework: introduction the Tobin effect money in the utility function summary appendix - the MIU approximation problems. Part 3 Money and transactions: introduction shopping-time models cash-in-advance models other approaches summary appendix - the CIA approximation problems. Part 4 Money and public finance: introduction bugdet accounting equilibrium seigniorage optimal taxation and seigniorage Friedman's rule revisited nonindexed tax systems problems. Part 5 Money and output in the short run: introduction flexible prices sticky prices and wages a framework for monetary analysis inflation persistence summary appendix problems. Part 6 Money and the open economy: introduction the Obstfeld-Rogoff two-country model policy coordination the small open economy summary appendix problems. Part 7 The credit channel of monetary policy: introduction imperfect information in credit markets macroeconomic implications does credit matter? summary. Part 8 Discretionary policy and time inconsistency: introduction inflation under discretionary policy solutions to the inflation bias is the inflation bias important? do central banking institutions matter? lessons and conclusions problems. Part 9 Monetary-policy operating procedures: introduction from instruments to goals the instrument-choice problem operating procedures and policy measures problems. Part 10 Interest rates and monetary policy: introduction interest-rate rule and the price level interest rate policies in general equilibrium models the term structure of interest rates a model for policy analysis summary problems.

The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation

Abstract: We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our 'natural' classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification reveals the true underlying monetary regime to be something radically different, often a variant of a float. Conversely, when official classification is floating, our scheme routinely suggests that the reality was a form of de facto peg. Our new classification scheme points to a complete rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. Indeed, the breakup of Bretton Woods had a far less dramatic impact on most exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed. Also, contrary to an influential empirical literature, our evidence suggests that exchange rate arraignments may be quite important for growth, trade and inflation. Our newly compiled monthly data set on market-determined exchange rates goes back to 1946 for 153 countries.