Showing papers on "Leverage (finance) published in 2009"

Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors Are Reliably Important?

Abstract: This paper examines the relative importance of many factors in the capital structure decisions of publicly traded American firms from 1950 to 2003. The most reliable factors for explaining market leverage are: median industry leverage (+ effect on leverage), market-to-book assets ratio (−), tangibility (+), profits (−), log of assets (+), and expected inflation (+). In addition, we find that dividend-paying firms tend to have lower leverage. When considering book leverage, somewhat similar effects are found. However, for book leverage, the impact of firm size, the market-to-book ratio, and the effect of inflation are not reliable. The empirical evidence seems reasonably consistent with some versions of the trade-off theory of capital structure.

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008

Abstract: The crisis of 2008-09 has focused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. In this paper we study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a newly constructed historical dataset for 12 developed countries over the years 1870-2008, utilizing the data to study rare events associated with financial crisis episodes. We present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates, and we also find a decline in safe assets on banks' balance sheets. We also show for the first time how monetary policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how despite these policies the output costs of crises have remained large. Importantly, we can also show that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are

Liquidity and Leverage

Abstract: In a financial system in which balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes appear immediately as changes in net worth, eliciting responses from financial intermediaries who adjust the size of their balance sheets. We document evidence that marked-to-market leverage is strongly procyclical. Such behavior has aggregate consequences. Changes in dealer repos—the primary margin of adjustment for the aggregate balance sheets of intermediaries—forecast changes in financial market risk as measured by the innovations in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX). Aggregate liquidity can be seen as the rate of change of the aggregate balance sheet of the financial intermediaries.

The fundamental principles of financial regulation

Abstract: Today's financial regulatory systems assume that regulations which make individual banks safe also make the financial system safe. The eleventh Geneva Report on the World Economy shows that this thinking is flawed. Actions that banks take to make themselves safer can - in times of crisis - undermine the system's stability. The Report argues for a different approach. What is needed is micro-prudential (i.e. bank-level) regulation, macro-prudential (i.e. system-wide) regulation, and careful coordination of the two. Macro-prudential regulation in particular needs reform to ensure it countervails the natural decline in measured risk during booms and its rise in subsequent collapses. "Counter-cyclical capital charges" are the way forward; regulators should adjust capital adequacy requirements over the cycle by two multiples - the first related to above-average growth of credit expansion and leverage, the second related to the mismatch in the maturity of assets and liabilities. Changes to mark-to-market procedures are also needed. Macro- and micro-prudential regulation should be carried out by separate institutions since they differ in focus and expertise required. Central Banks should be tasked with macro-prudential regulation, Financial Services Authorities with micro-prudential regulation. Improved international coordination is also important. Since financial and asset-price cycles differ from country to country, counter-cyclical regulatory policy needs to be implemented mainly by the "host" rather than the "home" country.

The Leverage Cycle

Abstract: Equilibrium determines leverage, not just interest rates. Variations in leverage cause fluctuations in asset prices. This leverage cycle can be damaging to the economy, and should be regulated.

Testing Theories of Capital Structure and Estimating the Speed of Adjustment

Abstract: This paper examines time-series patterns of external financing decisions and shows that publicly traded U.S. firms fund a much larger proportion of their financing deficit with external equity when the cost of equity capital is low. The historical values of the cost of equity capital have long-lasting effects on firms’ capital structures through their influence on firms’ historical financing decisions. We also introduce a new econometric technique to deal with biases in estimates of the speed of adjustment toward target leverage. We find that firms adjust toward target leverage at a moderate speed, with a half-life of 3.7 years for book leverage, even after controlling for the traditional determinants of capital structure and firm fixed effects.

The impact of capital‐structure choice on firm performance: empirical evidence from Egypt

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of capital structure choice on firm performance in Egypt as one of emerging or transition economies.Design/methodology/approach – Multiple regression analysis is used in the study in estimating the relationship between the leverage level and firm's performance.Findings – Using three of accounting‐based measures of financial performance (i.e. return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and gross profit margin), and based on a sample of non‐financial Egyptian listed firms from 1997 to 2005 the results reveal that capital structure choice decision, in general terms, has a weak‐to‐no impact on firm's performance.Originality/value – This is the first study that examines the relationship between leverage level and firm performance in Egypt.

Skill-relatedness and firm diversification

Abstract: According to the knowledge-based view of the firm, a firm’s workforce is its most important resource, and firms often diversify into activities that allow them to leverage human resources. Human capital also represents a main asset for employees. When switching jobs, individuals are expected to remain in industries that value the skills that they have developed in their previous work. Based on this observation, this article develops theoretical arguments and a statistical method that uses cross-industry labor flows to assess the skill-relatedness between industries. Industries classified in different sectors of the economy sometimes exhibit strong skill-relatedness linkages. Also, industry space, i.e., the resulting network that connects industries with overlapping skill requirements, is highly predictive of diversification moves on the part of firms. Diversification is found to be over 100 times more likely to occur into industries that have ties to a firm’s core activity in terms of skills than into industries that do not. This effect of skill-relatedness eclipses the effect of other types of relatedness, such as value chain linkages and classification-based relatedness.

Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy

Abstract: In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. Offering a window on liquidity, the balance sheet growth of broker-dealers provides a sense of the availability of credit. Contractions of broker-dealer balance sheets have tended to precede declines in real economic growth, even before the current turmoil. For this reason, balance sheet quantities of market-based financial intermediaries are important macroeconomic state variables for the conduct of monetary policy.

Creditor Rights and Corporate Risk-Taking

Abstract: We analyze the link between creditor rights and firms’ investment policies, proposing that stronger creditor rights in bankruptcy reduce corporate risk-taking. In cross-country analysis, we find that stronger creditor rights induce greater propensity of firms to engage in diversifying acquisitions, which result in poorer operating and stock-market abnormal performance. In countries with strong creditor rights, firms also have lower cash flow risk and lower leverage, and there is greater propensity of firms with low-recovery assets to acquire targets with high-recovery assets. These relationships are strongest in countries where management is dismissed in reorganization, and are observed in time-series analysis around changes in creditor rights. Our results question the value of strong creditor rights as they have an adverse effect on firms by inhibiting management from undertaking risky investments.

Are the determinants of capital structure country or firm specific

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the capital structure determinants of Greek, French, Italian, and Portuguese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We compare the capital structures of SMEs across countries and differences in country characteristics, asset structure, size, profitability, risk, and growth and how these may impact capital structure choices. The results show that SMEs in these countries determine their capital structure in similar ways. We attribute these similarities to the country institutional and financial characteristics and the commonality of their civil law systems. However, structural differences arise due to firm specific effects. We find that size is positively related to leverage while the relationship between leverage and asset structure, profitability and risk is negative. Growth is not a statistically significant determinant of leverage for any of the four countries. Our main conclusion is that firm-specific rather than country facts explain differences in capital structure choices of SMEs.

Do Buyouts (Still) Create Value

Abstract: We examine whether, and how, leveraged buyouts from the most recent wave of public to private transactions created value. For a sample of 192 buyouts completed between 1990 and 2006, we show that these deals are somewhat more conservatively priced and less levered than their predecessors from the 1980s. For the subsample of deals with post-buyout data available, median market and risk adjusted returns to pre- (post-) buyout capital invested are 72.5% (40.9%). In contrast, gains in operating performance are either comparable to or slightly exceed those observed for benchmark firms. Increases in industry valuation multiples and realized tax benefits from increasing leverage while private are each economically as important as operating gains in explaining realized returns.

Bankruptcy Codes and Innovation

Abstract: We argue that when bankruptcy code is creditor friendly, excessive liquidations cause levered firms to shun innovation, whereas by promoting continuation upon failure, a debtor-friendly code induces greater innovation. We provide empirical support for this claim by employing patents as a proxy for innovation. Using time-series changes within a country and cross-country variation in creditor rights, we confirm that a creditor-friendly code leads to a lower absolute level of innovation by firms, as well as relatively lower innovation by firms in technologically innovative industries. When creditor rights are stronger, technologically innovative industries employ relatively less leverage and grow disproportionately slower.

The Net Benefits to Leverage

Abstract: I estimate the market's valuation of the net benefits to leverage using panel data from 1994 to 2004, identified from market values and betas of a company's debt and equity. The median firm captures net benefits of up to 5.5% of firm value. Small and profitable firms have high optimal leverage ratios, as predicted by theory but in contrast to existing empirical evidence. Companies are on average slightly underlevered relative to the optimal leverage ratio at refinancing. This result is mainly due to zero leverage firms. I also look at implications for financial policy.

Presidential Address: Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency

Abstract: Stock-market trading is increasingly dominated by sophisticated professionals, as opposed to individual investors. Will this trend ultimately lead to greater market efficiency? I consider two complicating factors. The first is crowding—the fact that, for a wide range of “unanchored” strategies, an arbitrageur cannot know how many of his peers are simultaneously entering the same trade. The second is leverage— when an arbitrageur chooses a privately optimal leverage ratio, he may create a firesale externality that raises the likelihood of a severe crash. In some cases, capital regulation may be helpful in dealing with the latter problem. IN THE LAST 20 YEARS or so, there have been profound changes in the way that money is managed. One indicator of these changes is the rapid growth of the hedge fund industry, whose assets on a global basis have gone from $39 billion at year-end 1990 to $1.93 trillion as of the second quarter of 2008. 1 Hedge funds are commonly thought of as the prototypical sophisticated investors, for a couple of reasons. First, many of their investment strategies are based on extensive quantitative modeling, much of which has its roots in academic research in finance. 2 Second, hedge funds often implement these strategies in an aggressively leveraged fashion. The growth of hedge funds is part of a broader trend toward professional asset management. French (2008) documents that, in the stock market, individual investors have been largely supplanted by institutions. Direct individual ownership of U.S. equities, which was 47.9% in 1980, fell to 21.5% by 2007. At

A Resolution of the Distress Risk and Leverage Puzzles in the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Abstract: We revisit findings that returns are negatively related to financial distress intensity and leverage. These are puzzles under frictionless capital markets assumptions, but consistent with optimizing firms that differ in their exposure to financial distress costs. Firms with high costs choose low leverage to avoid distress, but retain exposure to the systematic risk of bearing such costs in low states. Empirical results are consistent with this explanation. The return premiums to low leverage and low distress are significant in raw returns, and even stronger in risk-adjusted returns. When in distress, low leverage firms suffer more than high leverage firms as measured by a deterioration in accounting operating performance and heightened exposure to systematic risk. The connection between return premiums and distress costs is apparent in subperiod evidence—both are small or insignificant prior to 1980 and larger and significant thereafter.

Expropriation through loan guarantees to related parties: Evidence from China

Abstract: We identify and analyze a sample of publicly traded Chinese firms that issued loan guarantees to their related parties (usually the controlling block holders), thereby expropriating wealth from minority shareholders. Our results show that the issuance of related guarantees is less likely at smaller firms, at more profitable firms and at firms with higher growth prospects. We also find that the identity and ownership of block holders affect the likelihood of expropriation. In addition, we use this sample to provide new evidence on the relation between tunneling and proxies for firm value and financial performance. We find that Tobin’s Q, ROA and dividend yield are significantly lower, and that leverage is significantly higher, at firms that issued related guarantees.

Lending Relationships and Information Rents: Do Banks Exploit Their Information Advantages?

Abstract: In the process of lending to a firm, a bank acquires proprietary firm-specific information that is unavailable to non-lenders. This asymmetric evolution of information between lenders and prospective lenders grants the former an information monopoly. This paper empirically investigates whether relationship banks exploit this advantage by charging higher interest rates than those that would prevail were all banks symmetrically informed. My identification strategy hinges on the notion that large information shocks that level the playing field among banks erode the relationship bank's information monopoly. I use the borrower's IPO as such an information releasing event, and build a panel dataset in which the unit of observation is a firm's lending relationships before and after its IPO. Prior to a firm's IPO, I find a U-shaped relation between borrowing rates and relationship intensity. After the IPO, interest rates are decreasing in relationship intensity. Furthermore, mean interest rates drop after an IPO. The results are robust to firm and loan-year fixed effects, and to controls for firm leverage pre- and post- IPO. Thus, the reported interest rate pattern is clean of any confounding effects that might arise from changes in financial risk.

Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009

Abstract: We show that household leverage is an early and powerful predictor of the 2007 to 2009 recession. Counties in the U.S. that experienced a large increase in household leverage from 2002 to 2006 showed a sharp relative decline in durable consumption starting in the third quarter of 2006 – a full year before any significant change in unemployment. Similarly, counties with the highest reliance on credit card borrowing reduced durable consumption by significantly more following the financial crisis of the fall of 2008. Overall, our estimates show that household leverage growth and dependence on credit card borrowing explain a large fraction of the overall consumer default, house price, unemployment, residential investment, and durable consumption patterns during the recession. Our findings suggest that a focus on household finance may help elucidate the sources macroeconomic fluctuations.

Bank Loan Supply, Lender Choice, and Corporate Capital Structure

Abstract: This paper explores the relevance of capital market supply frictions for corporate capital structure decisions. To identify this relationship, I study the effect on firms' financial structures of two changes in bank funding constraints: the 1961 emergence of the market for certificates of deposit, and the 1966 Credit Crunch. Following an expansion (contraction) in the availability of bank loans, leverage ratios of bank-dependent firms significantly increase (decrease) relative to firms with bond market access. Concurrent changes in the composition of financing sources lend further support to the role of credit supply and debt market segmentation in capital structure choice.

Do Firms Target Credit Ratings or Leverage Levels

Abstract: Firms reduce leverage following credit rating downgrades. In the year following a downgrade, downgraded firms issue approximately 1.5%–2.0% less net debt relative to net equity as a percentage of assets compared to other firms. This relationship persists within an empirical model of target leverage behavior. The effect of a downgrade is larger at downgrades to a speculative grade rating and if commercial paper access is affected. In particular, firms downgraded to speculative are about twice as likely to reduce debt as other firms. Rating upgrades do not affect subsequent capital structure activity, suggesting that firms target minimum rating levels.

Do Country or Firm Factors Explain Capital Structure? Evidence from SMEs in France and Greece

Abstract: We investigate the capital structure determinants of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a sample of Greek and French firms. We address the following questions: Are the capital structure determinants of SMEs in the two countries driven by similar factors? Are potential differences driven by country-specific or firm-specific factors? Are the size and structure of their financial markets important factors to explain any cross-country differences on SME capital structure? To answer these questions we apply panel data methods to the sample of firms for the period 1998 to 2002. We assess the extent to which the debt to assets ratio of firms depends upon their asset structure, size, profitability and growth rate. The results show that the SMEs in both countries exhibit similarities in their capital structure choices. Asset structure and profitability have a negative relationship with leverage, whereas firm size is positively related to their debt to assets ratio. Growth is statistically significant only for France and is positively related to debt. We attribute these similarities to their institutional characteristics and in particular the commonality of their civil law systems. We find differences in the intensity of the capital structure relationship between the two countries. We provide evidence that these differences are due to firm-specific rather than country factors.

Ownership and capital structure in Latin America

Abstract: This study evaluates the capital-structure determinants of Latin American firms using a comprehensive sample covering seven countries. Firms in the region have debt levels similar to those of U.S. firms, which is puzzling, given that Latin American firms experience relatively lower tax benefits and higher bankruptcy costs. This study argues that ownership-concentrated firms avoid issuing equity because they do not want to share control rights. Latin American firms have high ownership concentration, which creates an ideal setting to study how ownership concentration explains firms' capital structure. Consistent with the control argument, this study finds a positive relation between leverage and ownership concentration, when losing control becomes an issue. Also, the study shows a positive relation between leverage and growth. In addition, the study reports that other determinants that do not proxy for control rights are consistent with previous findings. Firms that are larger, have more tangible assets, and are less profitable are also more leveraged.

The Dynamics of Leveraged and Inverse Exchange-Traded Funds

Abstract: Leveraged and inverse Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted signicant assets lately. Unlike traditional ETFs, these funds have \leverage" explicitly embedded as part of their product design and are primarily used by short-term traders, but are gaining popularity with individual investors placing leveraged bets or hedging their portfolios. The structure of these funds, however, creates both intended and unintended characteristics that are not seen in traditional ETFs. This note provides a unied framework to better understand the underlying dynamics of leveraged and inverse ETFs, their impact on market volatility and liquidity, unusual features of their product design, and questions of investor suitability. In particular, leveraged funds are not well understood both by investors and industry professionals. The daily re-leveraging of these funds creates profound microstructure eects and exacerbates volatility towards the close. We also show that the gross return of a leveraged or inverse ETF has an embedded path-dependent option that under certain conditions can lead to value destruction for a buy-and-hold investor. The unsuitability of these products for longer-term investors is reinforced by the drag on returns from high transaction costs and tax ineciency. y

Financially Constrained Stock Returns

Abstract: We study the effect of financial constraints on risk and expected returns by extending the investment-based asset pricing framework to incorporate retained earnings, debt, costly equity, and collateral constraints on debt capacity. Quantitative results show that more financially constrained firms are riskier and earn higher expected stock returns than less financially constrained firms. Intuitively, by preventing firms from financing all desired investments, collateral constraints restrict the flexibility of firms in smoothing dividend streams in the face of aggregate shocks. The inflexibility mechanism also gives rise to a convex relation between market leverage and expected stock returns. A VOLUMINOUS LITERATURE in corporate finance and macroeconomics has studied in depth the impact of financial constraints on firm value, capital investment, and business cycles. 1 In asset pricing, an important open question is how financial constraints affect risk and expected returns. Using the Kaplan and Zingales (1997) index of financial constraints, Lamont, Polk, and Sa ´ a-Requejo (2001) report that more constrained firms earn lower average returns than less constrained firms. However, Whited and Wu (2006) use an alternative index and find that more constrained firms earn higher average returns than less constrained firms, although the difference is insignificant. Conflicting evidence is difficult to interpret without models that explicitly tie the characteristics in question with risk and expected returns. We aim to fill this gap. We study the effect of financial constraints on risk and expected stock returns by extending the neoclassical investment framework to incorporate retained earnings, debt, costly equity, and collateral constraints on debt capacity. In doing so, we fill an important void in the literature. To the best

Hedge Fund Risk Dynamics: Implications for Performance Appraisal

Abstract: Accurate appraisal of hedge fund performance must recognize the freedom with which managers shift asset classes, strategies, and leverage in response to changing market conditions and arbitrage opportunities. The standard measure of performance is the abnormal return defined by a hedge fund's exposure to risk factors. If exposures are assumed constant when, in fact, they vary through time, estimated abnormal returns may be incorrect. We employ an optimal changepoint regression that allows risk exposures to shift, and illustrate the impact on performance appraisal using a sample of live and dead funds during the period January 1994 through December 2005.

The impact of public guarantees on credit to SMEs

Abstract: This article provides an in-depth evaluation of the impact of public credit guarantees to SMEs in increasing credit availability and reducing borrowing costs, without compromising their financial sustainability. Extensive econometric tests have been carried out by comparing the performance of the SMEs that benefited from such guarantees in Italy with a sample of comparable firms. The findings confirm the presence of a causal relationship between the public guarantee and the higher debt leverage of guaranteed firms, as well as their lower debt cost. Italy’s guarantee instrument has proved to be an effective instrument in these respects.

How Do Pensions Affect Corporate Capital Structure Decisions

Abstract: This paper examines the capital structure implications of defined benefit corporate pension plans. The magnitude of the liabilities arising from these pension plans is substantial. We show that leverage ratios for firms with pension plans are about 35% higher when pension assets and liabilities are incorporated into the capital structure. We estimate that the tax shields from pension contributions are about a third of those from interest payments. Pension contributions have a modest effect in lowering firms’ marginal corporate tax rates. Once pensions are considered, firms are less conservative in their choice of leverage than has been previously thought. We show that firms incorporate the magnitude of their pension assets and liabilities into their capital structure decisions.

Age Effects, Leverage and Firm Growth

Abstract: Recent theories of firm dynamics emphasize the role of financial variables as determinants of firm growth. Empirically examining these relationships has been difficult, since there is a lack of financial data on the small, young, and private firms. Using a unique administrative data set, this paper considers the growth of new firms in Canadian manufacturing from a financial perspective. We find that financial factors, such as leverage and initial financial size, impact growth rates for new firms. Further, the inclusion of leverage has little impact on the economic significance of the conditional age and size relationships with firm growth.