Showing papers on "Market capitalization published in 2017"

The impact of microblogging data for stock market prediction: Using Twitter to predict returns, volatility, trading volume and survey sentiment indices

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a robust methodology to assess the value of microblogging data to forecast stock market variables: returns, volatility and trading volume of diverse indices and portfolios. The methodology uses sentiment and attention indicators extracted from microblogs (a large Twitter dataset is adopted) and survey indices (AAII and II, USMC and Sentix), diverse forms to daily aggregate these indicators, usage of a Kalman Filter to merge microblog and survey sources, a realistic rolling windows evaluation, several Machine Learning methods and the Diebold-Mariano test to validate if the sentiment and attention based predictions are valuable when compared with an autoregressive baseline. We found that Twitter sentiment and posting volume were relevant for the forecasting of returns of S&P 500 index, portfolios of lower market capitalization and some industries. Additionally, KF sentiment was informative for the forecasting of returns. Moreover, Twitter and KF sentiment indicators were useful for the prediction of some survey sentiment indicators. These results confirm the usefulness of microblogging data for financial expert systems, allowing to predict stock market behavior and providing a valuable alternative for existing survey measures with advantages (e.g., fast and cheap creation, daily frequency).

Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.

Abstract: The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.

Does It Pay to Pay Attention

Abstract: We employ a novel brokerage account dataset to investigate the relation between individual investor attention and performance. In addition to portfolio holdings and trades, we observe when investors log-in to their trading account, what information they look at, and how much time they spend processing such information. We show that attention is positively related to investment performance – both at the portfolio return level as well as the individual trades level – and provide evidence that the superior performance of high-attention investors arises because they behave as momentum traders that purchase stocks early in the momentum cycle, several months before reversal sets in. We also show that paying attention is particularly profitable when trading stocks with high market capitalization, trading volume, volatility, number of analysts, dispersion of analyst forecasts, and news – indicating that it is for the stocks with high uncertainty, but for which a lot of public information is available, that it pays to pay attention. Finally, we find that account holders with higher invested wealth and higher exposure to small capitalization stocks, growth stocks, momentum stocks, and the overall market, are more attentive; that males pay more attention than females; and that attention is an increasing function of investors’ age.

The impact of the financial system on economic growth in the context of the global crisis: empirical evidence for the EU and OECD countries

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of the development and stability of the financial sector on economic growth on the basis of the quantitative methods that produce robust results. The following research hypotheses are tested: /H1/ The relationship between financial sector development (stability) and economic growth is nonlinear; /H2/ An excessively large size of the financial system does not lead to more rapid economic growth: it may even negatively affect GDP dynamics; /H3/ The inclusion of the post-crisis period gives new insights of the nature of the relationship between financial system and economic growth. The analysis covers the 28 EU and 34 OECD economies and the 1993–2013 period. The following variables are used to measure the financial sector: domestic credit provided by financial sector, bank nonperforming loans, bank capital to assets ratio, market capitalization of listed companies, turnover ratio of stocks traded, and the monetization ratio. A new element of the empirical analysis is the application of the extended econometric and economic modelling, including testing nonlinear relationships, analyzing both levels and changes of the financial variables, as well as estimating the models on the basis of a moving panel with overlapping observations. The regression equations are estimated by Blundell and Bond’s GMM system estimator. Our results indicate that all the research hypotheses have been positively verified.

Measuring the intellectual capital of Italian listed companies

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between intellectual capital (IC), measured in terms of the market to book (MTB) ratio, and potential key determinants of IC value such as intangible assets (IA) and a range of other factors. Design/methodology/approach The study is conducted for a sample of 140 Italian corporations over the period 2009-2013. Applying a holistic market-based approach, the relationship between IC value and selected determinants from the extant literature is tested. Five hypotheses are tested using a pooled OLS regression model, while controlling for time. ROE is employed as a useful firm profitability indicator from the perspective of an equity investor. Moreover, four robustness tests are undertaken. Findings The results show that IA, profitability, leverage, industry type, auditor type, and family ownership positively affect IC value, whereas SIZE and AGE negatively affect IC value. Moreover, the findings of the robustness tests suggest that all firms, and not just knowledge-intensive business service industry firms, manage knowledge. Research limitations/implications The validity of the findings is limited to the Italian context, as the study focuses on a sample of companies listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, all of which prepare their individual financial statements according to IFRS. Further limitations are related to the use of market value in the short term, as it is influenced by market volatility. The study may allow academic researchers to investigate the impact of other non-accounting sources of information on market value within a multidisciplinary perspective. Practical implications This paper also has implications for managers and practitioners. The findings suggest that managers should not take for granted that firm growth (an increase in SIZE) alone will lead to an increase in IC value, in the absence of a consistent IC-oriented investment strategy. Managers should also avoid smoothing their IC investment as the company grows, in order to maintain a stable MTB ratio. Further, standard setters should seek to explore better means of disclosing non-accounting information relating to IC value. Originality/value This paper contributes to the IC literature as it is the first study which applies the market capitalization approach to analyze IC value determinants in the Italian context, within the framework of IFRS. The findings reveal some interesting relationships between the MTB ratio and recognized intangible investments, which are found to be insignificant in previous studies, confirming that, through the holistic effect, the MTB ratio may be a good proxy for IC.

Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence

Abstract: Factor investing is popular, and its adoption is accelerating. One reason it is increasingly being embraced is that portfolio return expectations seem to be evidence based. However, much of the so-called evidence consists of repeated analysis of the very datasets used to derive an investment model in the first place. To mitigate this trap, the authors estimate the risk premiums earned from factor investing over very long periods (up to 117 years) and across many markets (up to 23). They report on the long-term profitability of following strategies based on market capitalization, value versus growth, dividend yield, stock-return momentum, and low-volatility investing.

Independent Director Reputation Incentives and Stock Price Informativeness

Abstract: This study examines whether the reputation incentives of independent directors increase the incorporation of firm-specific information into stock prices. We find that the proportion of directors who deem their directorships to be more important based on firm market capitalization is associated with higher firm-specific information content in stock prices. This is consistent with the argument that boards which are incentivized to protect their reputation can deter managers from withholding information. We find this relation to be stronger when other external monitoring mechanisms are weak and when there is uncertainty regarding future prospects of the firm. We also find evidence that the presence of directors with high reputation incentives is negatively associated with stock price crash.

Predicting fraudulent financial reporting using artificial neural network

Abstract: Purpose This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of an artificial neural network (ANN) in predicting fraudulent financial reporting in small market capitalization companies in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach Based on the concepts of ANN, a mathematical model was developed to compare non-fraud and fraud companies selected from among small market capitalization companies in Malaysia; the fraud companies had already been charged by the Securities Commission for falsification of financial statements. Ten financial ratios are used as fraud risk indicators to predict fraudulent financial reporting using ANN. Findings The findings indicate that the proposed ANN methodology outperforms other statistical techniques widely used for predicting fraudulent financial reporting. Originality/value The study is one of few to adopt the ANN approach for the prediction of financial reporting fraud.

Intellectual capital disclosure and corporate market value: does board diversity matter?

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between IC disclosure and the corporate market value (CMV) of listed firms on the main board of Nigeria Stock Exchange and to test the moderating effect of religious and ethnic composition of board members on the relationship. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the signaling and upper echelons theories in formulating four hypotheses that guide the results analysis. By employing a two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments and controlling for the possible endogeneity effect on the parameters estimated for a sample of 91 listed firms on main board of Nigeria Stock Exchange, this study investigates the association of IC disclosure with CMV, namely, cost of capital and market capitalization, and the moderating role of religious and ethnic composition on such association using data over the 2010 to 2014 financial years. Findings The results show a significant positive relationship between overall IC disclosure and market capitalization and a negative impact on cost of capital, which are in line with the hypothesized propositions. The moderating effect of board diversity is also confirmed. This study contributes to recent evidence concerning the value relevance of IC information to investors and other interested stakeholders and the established moderating role of board diversity in IC disclosure-related studies. Practical implications The regulators may consider development of standards on board composition about religious and ethnic composition in order to curb the domination from same group in the board room. Those charged with governance should be concerned with the disclosure of IC information in the financial statements as it has value relevance to the investors, in line with signaling theory. Social implications The ethnic and religious composition of board members is a significant factor within the board room and needs to be given adequate consideration. Originality/value This study is the first to consider IC disclosure across whole sectors in the Nigerian economy and looks upon ethnicity and religious affiliation of boards as moderating variables. The study controls for heteroscedasticity and endogeneity issues by adopting two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments.

Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

Abstract: The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of \$100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, however, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1,469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and June 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, the market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.

Improving Factor-Based Quantitative Investing by Forecasting Company Fundamentals

Abstract: On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported data, that are known through retrospective analysis to outperform the market average. Two popular factors are the book value normalized by market capitalization (book-to-market) and the operating income normalized by the enterprise value (EBIT/EV). In this paper: we first show through simulation that if we could (clairvoyantly) select stocks using factors calculated on future fundamentals (via oracle), then our portfolios would far outperform a standard factor approach. Motivated by this analysis, we train deep neural networks to forecast future fundamentals based on a trailing 5-years window. Quantitative analysis demonstrates a significant improvement in MSE over a naive strategy. Moreover, in retrospective analysis using an industry-grade stock portfolio simulator (backtester), we show an improvement in compounded annual return to 17.1% (MLP) vs 14.4% for a standard factor model.

The Cross-Section of Crypto-Currencies as Financial Assets: Investing in Crypto-Currencies Beyond Bitcoin

Abstract: Crypto-currencies have developed a vibrant market since bitcoin, the first crypto-currency, was created in 2009. We look at the properties of crypto-currencies as financial assets in a broad cross-section. We discuss approaches of altcoins to generate value and their trading and information platforms. Then we investigate crypto-currencies as alternative investment assets, studying their returns and the co-movements of altcoin prices with bitcoin and against each other. We evaluate their addition to investors' portfolios and document they are indeed able to enhance the diversification of portfolios due to their little co-movements with established assets, as well as with each other. Furthermore, we evaluate pure portfolios of crypto-currencies: an equally-weighted one, a value-weighted one, and one based on the CRypto-currency IndeX (CRIX). The CRIX portfolio displays lower risk than any individual of the liquid crypto-currencies. We also document the changing characteristics of the crypto-currency market. Deepening liquidity is accompanied by a rise in market value, and a growing number of altcoins is contributing larger amounts to aggregate crypto-currency market capitalization.

The Corporate Social Responsibility and Firms’ Financial Performance: Evidence from Financial Sector of Pakistan

Abstract: Competitiveness of financial sector has increased manifold and the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an indispensable concern parallel to concentrating on profitability enhancement. Businesses are consider as social units, they have to serve stakeholders, and tend to execute CSR on priority basis and subsequent disclosure as well. Unhealthy CSR policies may cause externalities and eventual relinquished customers. The main purpose of study is to shed light on the impact of corporate social responsibility on financial performance of banking sector of Pakistan, using a sample of 30 commercial banks listed with Pakistan stock exchange (PSX) for the period of 10 years from 2006 to 2015, selected based upon market capitalization. We applied pooled regression models to investigate the impact of CSR on financial performance. Empirical findings signify the robustness of pooled model that documented a positive and significant impact of CSR on ROA, ROE and EPS. This premise holds that CSR has positive and significant impact on FP of selected commercial banks of Pakistan. Based upon key findings, this study postulates CSR phenomenon is consider as an essential growth element and financial performance-boosting tool by banking industry of Pakistan. Eventually, mainstream of the studies on CSR are in context of well-established companies and nations, however, developing nations are least emphasized, thus the findings of this study greatly contribute in body of knowledge as well as offer pivotal implications for policy makers and governance of financial sector.

Enhancement of stock market forecasting using an improved fundamental analysis-based approach

Abstract: Stock investment is regarded as a high-risk financial activity, in which life savings can be destroyed when investors fail to consider factors in stock price variation or do not master professional knowledge and experiences related to investment. To enhance decision-making quality and profitability for investors, numerous different methods for forecasting stock market prices have appeared. However, these forecasts usually do not appear as expected because of uncertainties in the stock market. Therefore, how to effectively use stock information to help investors make stock investment decisions has become a primary issue in stock investment. Based on the bottom-up approach that considers financial conditions of listed companies, industrial environment, macroeconomics, and financial news respectively, an improved fundamental analysis-based approach for stock market forecasting is developed for selecting optimal stocks from the stock market and predicting their future price trends to provide a reference for investor decisions. This study involves the following tasks: (1) design an improved fundamental analysis-based approach to stock market forecasting; (2) develop techniques related to fundamental analysis-based stock market forecasting, and (3) demonstrate and evaluate the proposed fundamental analysis-based approach to stock market forecasting. The improved fundamental analysis-based approach to stock market forecasting involves techniques such as calculating the weight of financial indicators, evaluating and selecting individual stocks, selecting financial news features, determining stock trading signals based on financial news, and forecasting stock price trend.

Best Practice for Cost-of-Capital Estimates

Abstract: Cost-of-capital assessments with factor models require quantitative forward-looking estimates. We recommend estimating Vasicek-shrunk betas with 1–4 years of daily stock returns and then shrinking betas a second time (and more for smaller stocks and longer-term projects), because the underlying betas are themselves time-varying. Such estimators also work well in other developed countries and for small-minus-big (SMB) and high-minus-low (HML) exposures. If own historical stock returns are not available, peer betas based on market cap should be used. Historical industry averages have almost no predictive power and should never be used.

Erratum to: A Bi-Directional Examination of the Relationship Between Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings and Company Financial Performance in the European Context

Abstract: Research focusing on the relationship between measures of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and company financial performance has led to mixed results in the North American context. In addition, the ethical attitudes and approaches toward CSR investments of both companies and rating agencies are not necessarily the same in Europe and the United States. In this study, we use CSR ratings issued by a major European CSR ratings agency (Vigeo) to examine in a bi-directional manner the relationships between CSR ratings and financial performance in the European context. By bi-directional, we mean an examination of the relationship between prior CSR ratings and subsequent accounting and financial performance and reciprocally, the impact of accounting and financial performance of year N − 1 on CSR ratings of year N. Our principal findings are: (1) the greater the market capitalization of a company, the higher the Vigeo rating, (2) the higher the risk of the company, the lower the Vigeo rating, and (3) the greater the stock market return of a company, the lower the Vigeo rating. Based on these findings, we propose (1) a concept of “political visibility” pursuant to which enterprises of a greater size are exposed to greater pressure to conform to norms of socially acceptable behavior, (2) a concept of “priorities” in which enterprises that have resolved their most urgent financial needs have a greater ability to invest in CSR, (3) a concept of “rating downgrading” which reveals the sanctioning role of the rating agency from an ethical standpoint.

The Impact of Reputation on Corporate Financial Performance: Median Regression Approach

Abstract: Background: In recent years, reputation has become an important risk concern for companies around the world. Deloitte Global Survey highlights the reputation risk as the top strategic business risk in 2014. This is also proven by a research conducted by AON Global Risk Management Survey in 2015 and Allianz Risk Barometer Survey in 2016 which finds a loss of reputation as one of the biggest risks for business executives. Furthermore, the importance of reputation is confirmed by the fact that reputation accounts for more than 25 percent of a company’s market value and the total market capitalization of the S&P500 companies. Objectives: To investigates the relationship between corporate reputation and financial performance. Methods/Approach: The survey of the paper was conducted in 2015 in Croatia. The questionnaire for assessing corporate reputation contained three reputational dimensions: products and services, corporate integrity, and organizational performance while the financial dimensions contained indicators of EVA, ROCE, ROA, ROE and the financial stability coefficient. Hierarchical regression methods were applied in the analysis. Results: This research leads to the conclusion that some dimensions of corporate reputation can be important predictors of financial performance. Conclusions: Results of the research could be a valid motivation for business executives to consider reputation risk as a critical issue of corporate business strategy.

Determinants of intellectual capital disclosure: evidence from India

Abstract: Purpose This paper aims at exploring the extent and determinants of intellectual capital disclosure (ICD) in India. Design/methodology/approach Content of annual reports of 200 firms classified on their market capitalization is analysed using search terms to find out the extent and nature of disclosure. The period of study is 2010-11 and 2013-14. Paired t-test is used to see if there is any significant change in the level of disclosure between two time periods. The various determinants and their impacts are captured using a regression equation. Findings The analysis showed evidence that market capitalization, ownership and age of the firms are the major determinants of ICD in India. Performance, size and type of industry mattered only for large-cap firms. Disclosure levels are seen to increase with market capitalization. Human capital and external capital is highly reported by all categories of firms. The overall disclosure by all categories has significantly increased, whereas that of human capital and external capital has increased significantly only in small-cap and mid-cap firms. Originality/value This paper looks at size, market and performance-related variables and their impact on the extent of disclosure. It takes representative firms from three indices based on their market capitalization and evaluates them, thus making results and findings reliable. This is the first paper which takes a large cross section sample from across 12 sectors and also performs a longitudinal analysis. This paper is of interest to managers of firms who can affect the policies of their firms in making robust changes in disclosure practices.

Measuring and mapping the emergence of the digital economy: a comparison of the market capitalization in selected countries

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a method to quantify the digital economy using a representative measurement approach and use it to analyze the USA, Germany, the Republic of Korea and Sweden. Design/methodology/approach The research approach of this paper is based on a developed methodology to identify firms of the digital economy by measuring the market capitalization of selected countries in comparison over time using financial databases. Findings Comparing the market capitalization of the digital economy, the USA lead both in absolute as well as in relative terms. The 11 firms with the largest market capitalization are all American. For Germany, the results show that policy measures should be undertaken to ameliorate competitiveness in the field. Research limitations/implications This current measurement only includes public firms. An interesting avenue for future research would be to transfer the approach to investigate private firms. Originality/value Previous research has focused on comparing information and communication technologies adoption and infrastructure as well as innovation hubs between countries. The authors are not aware of any paper to date which has compared market capitalization in the digital economy between countries using a representative sample. This paper offers a research approach to measure and compare the digital economy between countries. The methodology could be applied to other countries which seek to benchmark their performance and derive policy measures to be able to compete with jurisdictions leading in the digital economy.

Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

Abstract: Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Financial performance towards value of firms in basic and chemicals industry

Abstract: 1. Introduction Capital market is one of the major contributors of economic growth in Indonesia. Rise and fall of the stock index is a reflection of the economic dynamism of the country (Widoatmodjo, 2009). Capital market is a platform between parties who have excess fund (investors) to those who need additional fund by trading the securities issued by the related companies (Tandelilin, 2010). The performance of capital market could be used as a benchmark to determine the economy growth of a country (Fetai, 2015; Glavina, 2015; Thalassinos, 2008; Thalassinos et al., 2012). Investment activity is an activity of placing funds in to one or more than one assets in a certain period with expectation of generating income or increasing value of the investment. Increasing trading value will be followed by increasing stock price (Husnan, 2005). Investment climate in Indonesia tends to hike in accordance with the new regulation of Decree No. KEP-00071/BEI/11-2013 concerning Changes to Round Lots and Tick Price. Effectively implemented since January 6, 2014, the new regulation stipulated the round lot value of equity security now consists of 100 shares as compared to 500 shares set out in the previous Decree of 2012. Decreasing round lots is expected to attract investors to trade actively at stock exchange, because the funds needed to purchase a stock became less. Since more investors are entering the stock market, there will be more trading transactions so it will enhance market capitalization and the liquidity of stock will go up. Liquid stocks will have high trading value, which indicates the investors are attracted to this stock. Stock price is formed on the power supply and demand in the stock market which is influenced by investors' considerations both from firm's internal and external factors (Jogiyanto, 2010; Thalassinos et al., 2015; Rupeika-Apoga and Nedovis, 2015). An investor, before making any decision regarding an investment, should always analyze and have in depth knowledge about the performance of related firm. The firm's performance could be discovered through the firm's internal information sourced from the firm's financial statements (Hanafi and Halim, 1996). The information presented in the financial statements has been sufficiently described the development of the firm and its achievements. If the financial performance of a firm shows good prospects, the stockholders and potential investors will be interested in buying the stocks, which will affect stock price (Tcvetkov et al., 2015). Generally, the main purpose of a firm is to maximize the wealth of its stockholders through the firm's value as reflected in the stock price (Brigham and Houston, 2001). The stock price is the price that would be paid by investors as an evidence of ownership. The higher the value of the firm, the more an investor is willing to pay for a stock. The stockholders always observe stock price movements, as the value of their prosperity is determined by the stock price. The stock price will directly affect value of the firm, which is an important indicator for investors. Value of a firm is very essential because it reflects firm's performance that could affect investors' perception towards the firm. In general terms, there are three approaches to value a firm which are discounted cash flow valuation, relative valuation, and contingent claim valuation (Damodaran, 2012). In reality, the most approach used is the relative valuation which will become the focus in this study. Relative valuation estimates the value of an asset by analyzing its pricing of comparable assets relative to a common variable. Price earnings ratio (PER), price to book value ratio (PBV), Tobin's Q, and price sales ratio are some of the widely used ratios to determine the value of a firm. A publicly traded firm provides information regarding its financial performance and financial ratios as consideration for investors in making an investment decision. …

Price linkages between Australian housing and stock markets: Wealth effect, credit effect or capital switching?

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the linkages between Australian house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. Specifically, it investigated whether there is a capital switching effect between house prices and stock prices. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. To accommodate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), a sub-period analysis was undertaken. To assess the impact of investor structure, the tests were also performed for small cap stocks and large cap stocks individually. Findings The empirical results reveal a negative lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices in Australia, suggesting the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. The impact of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between house prices and stock prices is also documented. Before the crisis, a causality transmission was running from house prices to stock prices, whilst stock prices appeared to lead house prices after the crisis. The capital switching activities between housing and stocks are more evident for small cap stocks. Originality/value This study is the first to examine the linkages between house prices and stock prices under the Toda and Yamamoto test framework. This is the first study to explore the impacts of the GFC on the lead–lag relationship between the two asset prices under the capital switching framework. This study is also the first to provide empirical evidence regarding the existence of capital switching activities between housing and stocks. In addition, the impact of investor structure on the interrelationship between the two asset prices is examined for the first time under the capital switching framework.

Reverse Mergers, Shell Value, and Regulation Risk in Chinese Equity Markets

Abstract: Using a comprehensive sample of reverse merger (RM) transactions, we examine the effects of China’s IPO regulations on the prices and returns of its publicly listed stocks. During 2007-2015, unlisted Chinese firms paid an average of 3 to 4 Billion RMB for each listed shell, an amount exceeding 2/3 of the median market capitalization of a listed firm. This large shell premium varies over time and is sensitive to regulatory shocks. In the cross-section, a portfolio that longs (shorts) the highest (lowest) estimated shell probability (ESP) firms earns substantial abnormal returns. Adding an ESP-based factor to five common factors improves return attribution and eliminates the notoriously large Size premium. Consistent with theory, ESP also explains the sensitivity of prices to corporate earnings, and predicts the likelihood of firms to undertake major asset restructurings (MARs). We conclude China’s IPO regulations impose a high cost on the functional efficiency of its financial system.

Study of Effective Corporate Tax Rate and Its Influential Factors: Empirical Evidence from Emerging European Markets

Abstract: This article examines the driving factors of the effective corporate tax rate (ECTR) for a sample of companies listed on five Eastern European stock exchanges (Romania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovenia), covering the period 2000–2016. The empirical research covers variables regarding firm characteristics (e.g., profitability, efficiency of assets, indebtedness, liquidity, and solvency), firm-level controls, auditing fees, and the statutory rate. The estimated panel data models provide support for a positive link between the ECTR and profitability, debt, capital and inventory intensity, firm size, and statutory rate, strengthening the validity of political cost theory. Further, the negative link between market capitalization and assets growth supports the idea of political power theory.

Related Party Transactions and Firm Value in the Business Groups in the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Abstract: Related party transactions are the most common corporate actions occurring in the business groups in the Indonesia Stock Exchange that can influence firm value. The market capitalization proportion of the business groups is more than 50 percent of all the market capitalization of the issuers listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study aimed to analyze the determinants of related party transactions affecting the values of the companies in the business groups in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The determinants were the types of related party transactions, company’s size, debt to equity ratio, and period of crisis. This study used panel data with quarterly time period from 2006 to 2013. Samples were determined by purposive sampling that focused on the typology of the companies, namely the companies in the three business groups representing the three layers of market capitalization. In total were 704 observations. The result showed that related party transactions of sales and incomes as well as purchases and expenses significantly have positive effect on firm value. Debt to equity ratio insignificantly has positive effect on firm value. The related party transactions of loans, receivables, asset tunneling, company’s size and period of crisis significantly have negative effect on firm value.JEL classification numbers: G11, G32Keywords: related party transactions, firm value, business groups, Indonesia, propping and tunneling

Evaluating the Shariah-Compliance of Equity Portfolios: The Weighting Method Matters

Abstract: Like every equity investment strategy, a Shariah compliant equity portfolio makes implicit bets. The most obvious bet is the application of sector and financial screens to select the Shariah-compliant stocks. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the weighting method. Most Shariah compliant equity portfolios are market capitalization weighted. We first of all demonstrate the negative impact on the Islamic investor of choosing market capitalization weighting under the assumption of mispricing. We then investigate the use of alternative weighting methods in Shariah compliant equity investing, namely the approach of equal-weighting and low risk weighting. For the universe of Shariah compliant S&P 500 stocks over the period 1984-2014, we show that the equal-weighting and low risk weighted portfolios outperform the market capitalization weighted benchmark.

Investigating the Nexus between Institutional Quality and Stock Market Development in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Abstract: This study investigates the nexus between institutional quality and stock market development. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL (1,1)) and ARDL bounds testing procedure (Pesaran et al., 2001) was adopted for the estimation. We used annual time series data that covers the periods 1985 to 2013. Institutional quality is measured with corruption control, democratic accountability and bureaucratic quality, while stock market development is measured with market capitalization ratio. The institutional quality captures the degree of transparency and the level of investors' confidence while market capitalization measures overall performance. In addition, we also accounted for the influence of the banking sector (proxy: ratio of credit to the private sector). We control for the influence of variables such as stock market liquidity and per capita income. The results of the bounds test suggest that institutional quality and market development move together in the long run. Further investigation also shows that corruption control and democratic accountability are key institutional measures that impact significantly on stock market development, suggesting that institutional quality promotes the degree of transparency and investors' confidence. Other variables such as stock market liquidity, bureaucratic quality and per capita income were also found to be important determinants of stock market development in Nigeria. Hence, given the above findings, the relevant authorities should increase their efforts to control the level of corruption through the enhancement of the regulatory framework that could ensure accountability and efficient monitoring of the market actors for the sustainability of investors' confidence and the promotion of stock market development in Nigeria.