Showing papers on "Monsoon published in 1999"

On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO

Abstract: Analysis of the 140-year historical record suggests that the inverse relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (weak monsoon arising from warm ENSO event) has broken down in recent decades. Two possible reasons emerge from the analyses. A southeastward shift in the Walker circulation anomalies associated with ENSO events may lead to a reduced subsidence over the Indian region, thus favoring normal monsoon conditions. Additionally, increased surface temperatures over Eurasia in winter and spring, which are a part of the midlatitude continental warming trend, may favor the enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient conducive to a strong monsoon. These observations raise the possibility that the Eurasian warming in recent decades helps to sustain the monsoon rainfall at a normal level despite strong ENSO events.

Choice of South Asian Summer Monsoon Indices

Abstract: In the south Asian region, two of the major precipitation maxima associated with areas of intensive convective activity are located near the Bay of Bengal and in the vicinity of the Philippines. The variations of monthly mean outgoing longwave radiation in the two regions are poorly correlated, particularly in the decade of 1980s. The enhanced convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian subcontinents is coupled with reinforced monsoon circulation west of 80°E over India, the western Indian Ocean, and the tropical northern Africa. In contrast, the enhanced convection in the vicinity of the Philippines corresponds to intensified monsoon circulation primarily east of 80°E over southeast Asia including the Indochina peninsula, South China Sea, Philippine Sea, and the Maritime Continent. To better reflect regional monsoon characteristics, two convection indices (or associated circulation indices that are dynamically coherent with the convection indices) are suggested to measure the variability of the...

A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon

Abstract: A broad-scale circulation index representing the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon is proposed and is shown to be well correlated with the interannual variability of precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Using monthly precipitation analysis based on merging rain-gauge data with satellite estimates of precipitation for the period 1979-96, it is shown that the variability of precipitation on seasonal to interannual time-scales is coherent over a large region covering the Indian continent as well as the north Bay of Bengal and parts of south China. A new index, termed Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (EIMR), is defined as the precipitation averaged over the region 70 degrees E-110 degrees E, 10 degrees N-30 degrees N. The EIMR index is expected to represent the convective heating fluctuations associated with the Indian monsoon better than the traditional all India Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) based only on the precipitation over the Indian continent. It is shown that large precipitation over the Bay of Bengal with significant interannual variability cannot be ignored in the definition of Indian summer monsoon and its variability. The June-to-September climatological mean EIMR is found to be larger than that of the LMR even though the former is averaged over a larger area. The dominant mode of interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon is associated with a dipole between the EIMR region and the north-western Pacific region (110 degrees E-160 degrees E, 10 degrees N-30 degrees N) and a meridional dipole between the EIMR region and the equatorial Indian Ocean (70 degrees E-110 degrees E, 10 degrees S-5 degrees N). It is argued that the interannual variability of the monsoon circulation is primarily driven by gradients of diabatic heating associated with variations of the EIMR, and that the regional monsoon Hadley circulation is a manifestation of this heating. An index of the monsoon Hadley (MH) circulation is defined as the meridional wind-shear anomaly (between 850 hPa and 200 hPa) averaged over the same domain as the EIMR. Using circulation data from two independent reanalysis products, namely the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis, it is shown that the MH index is significantly correlated with the EIMR. Also it is shown that both the EIMR and MH indices have a dominant quasi-biennial variability, consistent with previous studies of IMR. Teleconnections of IMR, EIMR and MH indices with summer sea surface temperature (SST) have also been investigated. There are indications that the south equatorial Indian Ocean SST has a strong positive correlation with the EIMR. Also it is noted that the correlation of the monsoon indices with the eastern Pacific SST was weak during the period under consideration primarily due to almost a reverse relationship between monsoon and El Nino and Southern Oscillation during the latest eight years.

Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: Results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)

Abstract: Amplification of the northern hemisphere seasonal cycle of insolation during the mid-Holocene causes a northward shift of the main regions of monsoon precipitation over Africa and India in all 18 simulations conducted for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Differences among simulations are related to differences in model formulation. Despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates of biome shifts, the magnitude of the monsoon increases over northern Africa are underestimated by all the models.

High-Resolution Holocene Environmental Changes in the Thar Desert, Northwestern India

Abstract: Sediments from Lunkaransar dry lake in northwestern India reveal regional water table and lake level fluctuations over decades to centuries during the Holocene that are attributed to changes in the southwestern Indian monsoon rains. The lake levels were very shallow and fluctuated often in the early Holocene and then rose abruptly around 6300 carbon-14 years before the present (14C yr B.P.). The lake completely desiccated around 4800 14C yr B.P. The end of this 1500-year wet period coincided with a period of intense dune destabilization. The major Harrapan-Indus civilization began and flourished in this region 1000 years after desiccation of the lake during arid climate and was not synchronous with the lacustral phase.

The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: comparison of ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses

Abstract: The behavior of the Asian summer monsoon is documented and compared using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) Reanalysis. In terms of seasonal mean climatologies the results suggest that, in several respects, the ERA is superior to the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis. The overall better simulation of the precipitation and hence the diabatic heating field over the monsoon domain in ERA means that the analyzed circulation is probably nearer reality. In terms of interannual variability, inconsistencies in the definition of weak and strong monsoon years based on typical monsoon indices such as All-India Rainfall (AIR) anomalies and the large-scale wind shear based dynamical monsoon index (DMI) still exist. Two dominant modes of interannual variability have been identified that together explain nearly 50% of the variance. Individually, they have many features in c...

Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime

Abstract: Interannual variability of the North American warm season-precipitation regime is examined in three regions of the United States and Mexico: Arizona-New Mexico, northwest Mexico, and southwest Mexico. Daily observed precipitation over the United States and Mexico for a 26-yr (1963-88) period and various fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis are used to compare and contrast hydrologic conditions and atmospheric circulation features associated with early, late, wet, and dry monsoons in each region. Relationships between anomalous monsoon behavior and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon are examined. Some factors associated with the atmosphere's lower boundary conditions that might influence the interannual variability of the warm season precipitation regime are discussed. The mean seasonal evolution of the North American monsoon system is characterized by the regular northward progression of heavy precipitation from southern Mexico by early June to the southwestern United States by early July. While the seasonal normal rainfall and its variability are largest in southwest Mexico, the mean seasonal percent departure from normal is largest in Arizona-New Mexico. Wet (dry) monsoons in southwest Mexico tend to occur during La Nina (El Nino). This association is attributed, in part, to the impact of local sea surface temperature anomalies on the land-sea thermal contrast, hence the strength of the monsoon. There is also a weak association between dry monsoons in Arizona-New Mexico (northwest Mexico) and La Nina (El Nino). Wet summer monsoons in Arizona-New Mexico tend to follow winters characterized by dry conditions in the southwestern United States and vice versa. Although the onset and duration of the monsoon are quite regular in each region, the precise date of onset in a given region is highly variable and likely to be unrelated to the date of onset in the other regions. Early monsoons in Arizona-New Mexico tend to have heavy seasonal rainfall while late monsoons in northwest Mexico tend to have deficient seasonal rainfall. The onset date in southwest Mexico is not related to seasonal rainfall. However, interannual fluctuations in rainfall over the entire monsoon region for the 2-month period after onset in southwest Mexico are highly correlated, suggesting that knowledge of the starting date in southwest Mexico may be useful for analyzing, understanding, and possibly predicting these fluctuations.

Easterly wave regimes and associated convection over West Africa and tropical Atlantic: results from the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses

Abstract: NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF daily reanalyses are used to investigate the synoptic variability of easterly waves over West Africa and tropical Atlantic at 700 hPa in northern summer between 1979–1995 (1979–1993 for ECMWF). Spectral analysis of the meridional wind component at 700 hPa highlighted two main periodicity bands, between 3 and 5 days, and 6 and 9 days. The 3–5-day easterly wave regime has already been widely investigated, but only on shorter datasets. These waves grow both north and south of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The two main tracks, noted over West Africa at 5 °N and 15 °N, converge over the Atlantic on latitude 17.5 °N. These waves are more active in August–September than in June–July. Their average wavelength/phase speed varies from about 3000 km/8 m s-1 north of the jet to 5000 km/12 m s-1 south of the jet. Rainfall, convection and monsoon flux are significantly modulated by these waves, convection in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) being enhanced in the trough and ahead of it, with a wide meridional extension. Compared to the 3–5-day waves, the 6–9-day regime is intermittent and the corresponding wind field pattern has both similar and contrasting characteristics. The only main track is located north of the AEJ along 17.5 °N both over West Africa and the Atlantic. The mean wavelength is higher, about 5000 km long, and the average phase speed is about 7 m s-1. Then the wind field perturbation is mostly evident at the AEJ latitude and north of it. The perturbation structure is similar to that of 3–5-days in the north except that the more developed circulation centers, moving more to the north, lead to a large modulation of the jet zonal wind component. South of the AEJ, the wind field perturbation is weaker and quite different. The zonal wind core of the jet appears to be an almost symmetric axis in the 6–9-day wind field pattern, a clockwise circulation north of the AEJ being associated with a counter-clockwise circulation south of the jet, and vice versa. These 6–9-day easterly waves also affect significantly rainfall, convection and monsoon flux but in a different way, inducing large zonal convective bands in the ITCZ, mostly in the trough and behind it. As opposed to the 3–5-day wave regime, these rainfall anomalies are associated with anomalies of opposite sign over the Guinea coast and the Sahelian regions. Over the continent, these waves are more active in June–July, and in August–September over the ocean. GATE phase I gave an example of such an active 6–9-day wave pattern. Considered as a sequence of weak easterly wave activity, this phase was also a sequence of high 6–9-day easterly wave activity. We suggest that the 6–9-day regime results from an interaction between the 3–5-day easterly wave regime (maintained by the barotropic/baroclinic instability of the AEJ), and the development of strong anticyclonic circulations, north of the jet over West Africa, and both north and south of the jet over the Atlantic, significantly affecting the jet zonal wind component. The permanent subtropical anticyclones (Azores, Libya, St Helena) could help initiation and maintenance of such regime over West Africa and tropical Atlantic. Based on an a priori period-band criterion, our synoptic classification has enabled us to point out two statistical and meteorological easterly wave regimes over West Africa and tropical Atlantic. NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses are in good agreement, the main difference being a more developed easterly wave activity in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, especially for the 3–5-day regime over the Atlantic.

Monsoon-controlled export fluxes to the interior of the Arabian Sea

Abstract: As a part of the US-JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study (ASPS), we deployed a mooring array consisting of 16 Mark-7G time-series sediment traps on five moorings, each in the mesopelagic and interior depths in the western Arabian Sea set along a transect quasi-perpendicular to the Omani coast. The array was deployed for 410 days to cover all monsoon and inter-monsoon phases at 4.25-, 8.5- or 17-day open-close intervals, all of which were synchronized at 17-day periods. Total mass flux, fluxes of organic, inorganic carbon, biogenic Si and lithogenic Al (mg m −2 day −1 ) were obtained from samples representing 667 independent periods. The average total mass fluxes estimated in the interior depth along this sediment trap array at Mooring Stations 1–5 (MS-1–5) during 1994-5 ASPS were 147, 235, 221, 164 and 63 mg m −2 day −1 , respectively. Mass fluxes during the southwest (SW) Monsoon were always larger than during the northeast (NE) Monsoon at all divergent zone stations, but the difference was insignificant at the oligotrophic station, MS-5. Four major pulses of export flux events, two each at NE Monsoon and SW Monsoon, were observed in the divergent zone; these events dominated in quantity production of the annual mass flux, but did not dominate temporally. Export pulses were produced by passing eddies and wind-curl events, but the direct processes to produce individual export blooms at each station were diversified and highly complex. The onset of these pulses was generally synchronous throughout the divergent zone. Export pulses associated with specific biogeochemical signatures such as the ratio of elevated biogenic Si to inorganic carbon indicate a supply of deep water to the euphotic layer in varying degrees. The variability of mass fluxes at the oligotrophic station, MS-5, also represented both monsoon events, but with far less amplitude and without notable export pulses.

Synergistic feedbacks from ocean and vegetation on the African Monsoon response to Mid‐Holocene insolation

Abstract: We used a coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model without flux corrections, iteratively coupled to a biome model, to explore the impact of vegetation and ocean feedbacks on mid-Holocene monsoon change in northern Africa. We show that both feedbacks significantly increase the northward penetration and the intensity of the monsoon rainfall. The major contribution of the ocean is to enhance the inland moisture advection, whereas that of vegetation is to increase local recycling. Synergistic interactions between ocean and vegetation feedbacks play a critical role in the African monsoon changes, yielding to model results in much better agreement with observations.

Contrasting evaporative moisture sources during the drought of 1988 and the flood of 1993

Abstract: Using hourly observed precipitation data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalyses at 6 hourly intervals, and a quasi-isentropic back-trajectory algorithm, we have examined the transport and surface sources of moisture supplying rainfall during the spring and summer over the United States during the drought year of 1988 and the flood year of 1993. These results are compared to calculations using a bulk-transport approach and monthly mean data. We find that about 41 % of precipitation over the Mississippi River basin originated as evaporation from the same basin during April-July 1988 and 33 % during 1993. During the July peak of the 1993 flood the recycling ratio was considerably lower than in other months, while the source of moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea increased enormously. By contrast, at the June climax of the 1988 drought, the recycling ratio reaches a maximum. We also find a small source region in the eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean during both years, which decreases significantly with the onset of the Mexican monsoon around the beginning of July. The back-trajectory approach represents an improvement over the bulk recycling approach by rejecting the assumption of uniform distributions of rainfall in space and time, instead focusing specifically on the sources and transport of moisture contributing to observed rainfall events.

Intrusion of the Southwest Monsoon Current into the Bay of Bengal

Abstract: The general eastward flow in the north Indian Ocean during summer, which is called the Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC), flows eastward south of India, turns around Sri Lanka, and enters the Bay of Bengal. The intrusion of the SMC into the Bay of Bengal is studied using expendable bathythermograph (XBT) observations along the shipping route between Sri Lanka and Malaca Strait, TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height anomalies, and an ocean general circulation model. The intrusion appears first as a broad northward shallow (confined to the upper 200 m) flow in the central part of the Bay of Bengal during May. As the summer season advances, it moves westward, intensifies, and becomes narrow. The mean seasonal (May-September) transport of the SMC into the Bay of Bengal is about 10 Sv. The zonal variation of the geostrophic velocity across 6°N calculated using the XBT data compares well with that from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data. However, the SMC in the XBT data is faster (40 cm s−1) than in the altimeter data or the numerical simulation (25 cm s−1). Harmonic analysis of the depth of 20°C isotherm together with a simple forced Rossby wave model demonstrates that the SMC east of Sri Lanka is forced by both Ekman pumping in the Bay of Bengal and Rossby wave radiation associated with the spring Wyrtki [1973] jet in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The initial intrusion of the SMC into the Bay of Bengal is attributed to this Rossby wave radiation from the eastern boundary.

Climatology and variability of historical Soviet snow depth data : Some new perspectives in snow-Indian monsoon teleconnections

Abstract: This study presents the monthly climatology and variability of the historical soviet snow depth data. This data set was developed under the bilateral data exchange agreement between United States of America and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The original data is for 284 stations for periods varying from 1881 upto 1985. The seasonal cycle of the mean snow depth has been presented both as spatial maps and as averages over key locations. The deepest snow (=80 cms/day) areas are found over Siberia (in Particular over 80′–100 ′E, 55′–70 ′N) during March. Over the course of the annual cycle average snow depth over this region changes dramatically from about 10 cms in October to about 80 cms in March. The variability is presented in the form of spatial maps of standard deviation. To investigate the interaction of snow depth with Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR), lag and lead correlation coefficients are computed. Results reveal that the winter-time snow depth over western Eurasia surrounding Moscow (eastern Eurasia in central Siberia) shows significant negative (positive) relationship with subsequent IMR. Following the monsoon the signs of relationship reverse over both the regions. This correlation structure is indicative of a midlatitude longwave pattern with an anomalous ridge (trough) over Asia during the winter prior to a strong (weak) monsoon. As the time progresses from winter to spring, the coherent areas of significant relationship show southeastward propagation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the snow depth reveal that the first mode describes a dipole-type structure with one centre around Moscow and the other over central Siberia, depicting similar pattern as the spatial correlation structure. The decadal-scale IMR variations seem to be more associated with the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude snow depth variations rather than with the tropical ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability.

Formation and spreading of Arabian Sea high-salinity water mass

Abstract: The formation and seasonal spreading of the Arabian Sea High-Salinity Water (ASHSW) mass were studied based on the monthly mean climatology of temperature and salinity in the Arabian Sea, north of the equator and west of 80°E, on a 2° × 2° grid. The ASHSW forms in the northern Arabian Sea during winter and spreads southward along a 24 sigma-t surface against the prevailing weak zonal currents. The eastern extent of the core is limited by the strong northward coastal current flowing along the west coast of India. During the southwest monsoon the northern part of the core shoals under the influence of the Findlater Jet, while the southern part deepens. Throughout the year the southward extent of the ASHSW is inhibited by the equatorial currents. The atmospheric forcing that leads to the formation of ASHSW was delineated using the monthly mean climatology of heat and freshwater fluxes. Monsoon winds dominate all the flux fields during summer (June-September), while latent heat release during the relative calm of the winter (November-February) monsoon, driven by cool, dry continental air from the north, results in an increased density of the surface layer. Thus excess evaporation over precipitation and turbulent heat loss exceeding the radiative heat gain cool the surface waters of the northern Arabian Sea during winter and drive convective formation of ASHSW.

65,000 Years of Vegetation Change in Central Australia and the Australian Summer Monsoon

Abstract: Carbon isotopes in fossil emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae) eggshell from Lake Eyre, South Australia, demonstrate that the relative abundance of C4 grasses varied substantially during the past 65,000 years. Currently, C4 grasses are more abundant in regions that are increasingly affected by warm-season precipitation. Thus, an expansion of C4 grasses likely reflects an increase in the relative effectiveness of the Australian summer monsoon, which controls summer precipitation over Lake Eyre. The data imply that the Australian monsoon was most effective between 45,000 and 65,000 years ago, least effective during the Last Glacial Maximum, and moderately effective during the Holocene.

Equatorial currents and transports in the upper central Indian Ocean: Annual cycle and interannual variability

Abstract: The zonal circulation south of Sri Lanka is an important link for the exchange of water between the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Results from a first array of three moorings along 80 degrees 30'E north of 4 degrees 10'N from January .1991 to March 1992 were used to investigate the Monsoon Current regime [Schott et al., 1994]. Measurements from a second array of six current meter moorings are presented here. This array was deployed along 80 degrees 30'E between 45'S and 5 degrees N from July 1993 to September 1994 to investigate the annual cycle and interannual variability of the equatorial currents at this longitude. Both sets of moorings contribute to the Indian Ocean current meter array ICM8 of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. The semiannual equatorial jet (EJ) was showing a large seasonal asymmetry, reaching a monthly mean eastward transport of 35 Sv (1 Sv = 1 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) in November 1993, but just 5 Sv in May 1994. The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) had a maximum transport of 17 Sv in March to April 1994. Unexpectedly, compared to previous observations and model studies, the EUC was reappearing again in August 1994 at more than 10 Sv transport and was still flowing when the moorings were recovered. In addition, monthly mean ship drifts near the equator are evaluated to support the interpretation of the moored observations. Interannual variability of the EJ in our measurements and ship drift data appears to be related to the variability of the zonal winds and Southern Oscillation Index. The output of a global numerical model (Parallel Ocean Climate Model) driven by the winds for 1993/1994 is used to connect our observations to the larger scale. The model reproduces the EJ asymmetry and shows the existence of the EUC and its reappearance during summer 1994.

Simulating the evolution of the Asian and African monsoons during the past 30 Myr using an atmospheric general circulation model

Abstract: At geologic timescales, many proxy data suggest a contrasting evolution of Asian and African monsoons since the Oligocene. The Asian summer monsoon increases drastically around 8 Ma, whereas the African summer monsoon gradually weakens during the Miocene. Using an atmospheric general circulation model, we simulate most of the spatial evolutions of both monsoons only accounting for the changes of paleogeography, including continental drift, orogeny, and sea level change. The paleogeographic changes modify drastically the climate over central and southern Asia between the Oligocene and the present. The retreat of an epicontinental sea warms central Eurasia in summer. The heating of this area and the uplifts of the Tibetan plateau and of the Himalayas deepen the Asian low-pressure cell and displace it northwest. This then shifts precipitation from Indochina toward the southern flank of the Himalayas. This is in good agreement with proxy data. Therefore our modeling studies support a shift and a strengthening of the Asian monsoon during the late Tertiary rather than a real "onset". We suggest that the increase in seasonal precipitation and the strengthening of the number of days with heavy rainfall over the Himalayas from 30 Ma to the present may be of critical importance to explain the long-term evolution of physical erosion of this area. We also investigate the respective impact of the Paratethys shrinkage and of the Tibetan plateau uplift through sensitivity experiments and prove that the Paratethys retreat plays an important role in monsoon evolution. The northward drift of the African continent confines summer monsoon precipitation to a thin belt which favors the stretching of the subtropical desert, in good agreement with data. We finally show that during the Oligocene, the African and Asian monsoon systems are clearly separated by the Tethys seaway. The closure of this seaway and the evolution of the Asian monsoon induce a connection between both monsoon systems in the low and middle troposphere.

A mechanism for moistening the lower stratosphere involving the Asian summer monsoon

Abstract: This study employs European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analysis data and the contour advection technique to investigate the water vapour distribution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Water vapour is the primary greenhouse gas and understanding the processes which determine its distribution and transport is crucial. Of special interest is the exchange of water vapour across the tropopause. This study considers how the Asian summer monsoon affects the moisture budget of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The region of the Asian summer monsoon is identified as a significant moisture source for the upper troposphere outside the deep tropics. Monsoon convection moistens the region of the upper-level monsoon anticyclone which is located close to the dynamical tropopause, where isentropes cross from the troposphere into the stratosphere. An isentropic analysis reveals that transport from the troposphere into the stratosphere in this region is normally prevented by the strong potential-vorticity gradients around the tropopause. However, midlatitude synoptic disturbances occasionally interact with the monsoon anticyclone and pull filaments of tropospheric air from its northern flank. These filaments, characterized by high values of humidity and low values of potential vorticity, can extend far north and transport moisture irreversibly into the northern hemisphere lower stratosphere. MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone by Airbus In-service airCraft) data are used as an independent data source to validate the results obtained from the ECMWF analyses.

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Dynamical Mechanisms for the South China Sea Seasonal Circulation and Thermohaline Variabilities

Abstract: The seasonal ocean circulation and the seasonal thermal structure in the South China Sea (SCS) were studied numerically using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with 20-km horizontal resolution and 23 sigma levels conforming to a realistic bottom topography. A 16-month control run was performed using climatological monthly mean wind stresses, restoring-type surface salt and heat, and observational oceanic inflow/outflow at the open boundaries. The seasonally averaged effects of isolated forcing terms are presented and analyzed from the following experiments: 1) nonlinear dynamic effects removed, 2) wind effects removed, and 3) open boundary inflow/outflow set to zero. This procedure allowed analysis of the contribution of individual parameters to the general hydrology and specific features of the SCS: for example, coastal jets, mesoscale topographic gyres, and countercurrents. The results show that the POM model has the capability of simulating seasonal variations of the SCS circulation and thermohaline structure. The simulated SCS surface circulation is generally anticyclonic (cyclonic) during the summer (winter) monsoon period with a strong western boundary current, a mean maximum speed of 0.5 m s21 (0.95 m s21), a mean volume transport of 5.5 Sv (10.6 Sv) (Sv [ 106 m3 s21), and extending to a depth of around 200 m (500 m). During summer, the western boundary current splits and partially leaves the coast; the bifurcation point is at 148N in May and shifts south to 108N in July. A mesoscale eddy on the Sunda shelf (Natuna Island eddy) was also simulated. This eddy is cyclonic (anticyclonic) with maximum swirl velocity of 0.6 m s21 at the peak of the winter (summer) monsoon. The simulated thermohaline structure for summer and winter are nearly horizontal from east to west except at the coastal regions. Coastal upwelling and downwelling are also simulated: localized lifting (descending) of the isotherms and isohalines during summer (winter) at the west boundary. The simulation is reasonable when compared to the observations. Sensitivity experiments were designed to investigate the driving mechanisms. Nonlinearity is shown to be important to the transport of baroclinic eddy features, but otherwise insignificant. Transport from lateral boundaries is of considerable importance to summer circulation and thermal structure, with lesser effect on winter monsoon hydrology. In general, seasonal circulation patterns and upwelling phenomena are determined and forced by the wind, while the lateral boundary forcing plays a secondary role in determining the magnitude of the circulation velocities.

Climatically linked oscillations in Arabian Sea denitrification over the past 1 m.y.: Implications for the marine N cycle

Abstract: Water column and core-top δ15N data show that Arabian Sea denitrification produces large nitrogen isotopic enrichments that are regionally recorded with fidelity in the sediments. These results facilitate interpretation of a 1 m.y. δ15N record for Ocean Drilling Program site 722B on the Owen Ridge in terms of climatically linked oscillations in denitrification at the major orbital periods. As at present, denitrification was greatest during interglacial periods and, apparently, was not active during most glacial intervals. Cross-spectral analysis of δ15N with foraminiferal δ18O (global climate/sea level index) and lithogenic grain size (monsoon strength index) suggests forcings by changes in hydrography and productivity acting through the extent and intensity of the oxygen minimum zone. The data suggest that denitrification may be an internal forcing mechanism for climate change during major glacial/interglacial transitions through influence on marine N inventory and atmospheric CO2. However, compensation or amplification may occur from other sinks (sediment denitrification) or sources (nitrogen fixation).

Climate Assessment for 1998

Abstract: The global climate during 1998 was affected by opposite extremes of the ENSO cycle, with one of the strongest Pacific warm episodes (El Nino) in the historical record continuing during January–early May and Pacific cold episode (La Nina) conditions occurring from July–December. In both periods, regional temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric circulation patterns across the Pacific Ocean and the Americas were generally consistent with those observed during past warm and cold episodes. Some of the most dramatic impacts from both episodes were observed in the Tropics, where anomalous convection was evident across the entire tropical Pacific and in most major monsoon regions of the world. Over the Americas, many of the El Nino–(La Nina–) related rainfall anomalies in the subtropical and extratropical latitudes were linked to an extension (retraction) of the jet streams and their attendant circulation features typically located over the subtropical latitudes of both the North Pacific and South Pacific...

On the sea surface temperature high in the Lakshadweep Sea before the onset of the southwest monsoon

Abstract: The north Indian Ocean becomes the warmest area of the world oceans prior to the onset of southwest monsoon in June. During this period a zonal band of high sea surface temperature (SST), the “thermal equator” (TE), moves over this region concurrently with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Using a weekly SST data set, we show that another SST high develops off southwest India in the Lakshadweep Sea in March, well before the TE moves in to the area, and that it continues to retain its identity until the onset of monsoon. The SST high has its genesis about 6 months earlier in the Bay of Bengal. The collapse of the southwest monsoon in October and the onset of the northeast monsoon trigger down welling coastal Kelvin waves that propagate along the periphery of the Bay of Bengal, forcing an equatorward East India Coastal Current, which brings low-salinity water from the bay to the southeastern Arabian Sea during the northeast monsoon (November-January). As the Kelvin waves propagate poleward along the west coast of India after turning around Sri Lanka, they radiate downwelling Rossby waves that produce a “high” in sea level off southwest India. The downwelling and the surface layer of low-salinity water provide a breeding ground for the formation of a SST high in January. By March, with the increase in solar insolation due to the northward march of the Sun and the deep stable surface layer, the high reaches a mature phase clearly evident in the Lakshadweep Sea. By May, when the thermal equator and ITCZ move over the region, the high can be seen embedded in the TE. We speculate that at this time the high helps in producing conditions that are conducive for genesis of the monsoon onset vortex.

The Field Operations and Early Results of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)

Abstract: The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is an international field experiment with the objective to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to fluctuation of the regional hydrologic cycle over Southeast Asian, southern East Asia, aiming at improving monsoon prediction. In this article, we present a description of the major meteorological observation platforms during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of SCSMEX. We also provide highlights of early results and discussions of the role of SCSMEX in providing valuable in-situ data for calibration of satellite rainfall estimate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results indicate that there are distinctive stages in the onset of the South China Sea monsoon including possibly strong influences from extratropical systems as well as from convection over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. There are some tantalizing evidence of complex interactions between the supercloud cluster development over the Indian Ocean, advancing southwest monsoon flow over the South China Sea, midlatitude disturbances and the western Pacific subtropical high, possibly contributing to the disastrous flood over Yangtze River Basin in China during June 1998.

Chemical characterization of ambient aerosol collected during the southwest monsoon and intermonsoon seasons over the Arabian Sea: Labile-Fe(II) and other trace metals

Abstract: Atmospheric deposition of iron (Fe) to certain regions of the oceans is an important nutrient source of Fe to the biota, and the ability of the biota to uptake Fe is dependent on the speciation of the Fe. Therefore understanding the speciation of Fe in the atmosphere is critical to understanding the role of Fe as a nutrient source in surface ocean waters. Labile ferrous iron (Fe(II)) concentrations as well as total concentrations for Fe and other important trace metals, cations, and anions were determined over the Arabian Sea for two nonconsecutive months during 1995. Ambient aerosol samples were collected during the Indian Ocean intermonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons over the Arabian Sea. Sampling took place aboard the German research vessel Meteor in the months of May (leg M32/3; intermonsoon) and July/August (leg M32/5; southwest monsoon). Both cruise tracks followed the 65th east meridian, traveling for 30 days each (from north to south during leg M32/3 and from south to north during leg M32/5). A high-volume dichotomous virtual impactor with an aerodynamic cutoff size of 3 μm was used to collect the fine and coarse aerosol fractions for metal analysis. A low volume collector was used to collect aerosol samples for anion and cation analysis. The analysis for labile-Fe(II) was done immediately after sample collection to minimize any possible Fe redox reactions which might occur during sample storage. The analytical procedure involved filter extraction in a formate/formic acid buffered solution at pH 4.2 followed by colorimetric quantification of soluble Fe(II). Metals, anions, and cations were analyzed after the cruise. Total atmospheric aqueous-labile-Fe(II) concentrations during the intermonsoon were between 4.75 and 80%) was present in the fine fraction (<3.0 μm). During the southwest monsoon, atmospheric aqueous-labile-Fe(II) concentrations were consistently below the detection limit (<0.34 to <0.089 ng m^(−3), depending on the volume of air sampled). Air mass back trajectories (5 day, three dimensional) showed that air masses sampled during the southwest monsoon had advected over the open Indian Ocean, while air masses sampled during the intermonsoon had advected over northeast Africa, the Saudi Arabian peninsula, and southern Asia. These calculations were consistent with the results of the statistical analysis performed on the data set which showed that the variance due to crustal species during the intermonsoon samples was greater than the variance due to crustal species during the southwest monsoon. The factor scores for the crustal components were also greater when the back trajectories had advected over the nearby continental masses. Principal component analysis was also performed with the intermonsoon samples where aqueous labile Fe(II) was above the detection limit. Aqueous labile Fe(II) did not correlate well with other species indicating possible atmospheric processing of the iron during advection.