Showing papers on "Monsoon published in 2017"

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

Abstract: Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property. Against the backdrop of a declining monsoon, the number of extreme rain events is on the rise over central India. Here the authors identify a threefold increase in widespread extreme rains over the region during 1950–2015, driven by an increasing variability of the low-level westerlies over the Arabian Sea.

Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India

Abstract: The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm yr−1 and increased by 1 to 2 cm yr−1 in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage. Groundwater storage has declined in northern India and increased in southern India over the past decade. Trend analysis shows that much of this variability can be explained by changes in irrigation in response to monsoon precipitation.

The Indian monsoon variability and civilization changes in the Indian subcontinent

Abstract: The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia has been home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, whose fortunes ebbed and flowed with time—plausibly driven in part by shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We use speleothem oxygen isotope records from North India to reconstruct the monsoon’s variability on socially relevant time scales, allowing us to examine the history of civilization changes in the context of varying hydroclimatic conditions over the past 5700 years. Our data suggest that significant shifts in monsoon rainfall have occurred in concert with changes in the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the discharges of the Himalayan rivers. The close temporal relationship between these large-scale hydroclimatic changes and the intervals marking the significant sociopolitical developments of the Indus Valley and Vedic civilizations suggests a plausible role of climate change in shaping the important chapters of the history of human civilization in the Indian subcontinent.

Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal

Abstract: As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides and droughts that cause huge losses of life and property, impact the Himalayan environment, and hinder the socioeconomic development of the country. Given that the countrywide assessment of such extremes is still lacking, we present a comprehensive picture of prevailing precipitation extremes observed across Nepal. First, we present the spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) from 210 stations over the period of 1981–2010. Then, we analyze the temporal changes in the computed extremes from 76 stations, featuring long-term continuous records for the period of 1970–2012, by applying a non-parametric Mann−Kendall test to identify the existence of a trend and Sen’s slope method to calculate the true magnitude of this trend. Further, the local trends in precipitation extremes have been tested for their field significance over the distinct physio-geographical regions of Nepal, such as the lowlands, middle mountains and hills and high mountains in the west (WL, WM and WH, respectively), and likewise, in central (CL, CM and CH) and eastern (EL, EM and EH) Nepal. Our results suggest that the spatial patterns of high-intensity precipitation extremes are quite different to that of annual or monsoonal precipitation. Lowlands (Terai and Siwaliks) that feature relatively low precipitation and less wet days (rainy days) are exposed to high-intensity precipitation extremes. Our trend analysis suggests that the pre-monsoonal precipitation is significantly increasing over the lowlands and CH, while monsoonal precipitation is increasing in WM and CH and decreasing in CM, CL and EL. On the other hand, post-monsoonal precipitation is significantly decreasing across all of Nepal while winter precipitation is decreasing only over the WM region. Both high-intensity precipitation extremes and annual precipitation trends feature east−west contrast, suggesting significant increase over the WM and CH region but decrease over the EM and CM regions. Further, a significant positive trend in the number of consecutive dry days but significant negative trend in the number of wet (rainy) days are observed over the whole of Nepal, implying the prolongation of the dry spell across the country. Overall, the intensification of different precipitation indices over distinct parts of the country indicates region-specific risks of floods, landslides and droughts. The presented findings, in combination with population and environmental pressures, can support in devising the adequate region-specific adaptation strategies for different sectors and in improving the livelihood of the rural communities in Nepal.

Recent Changes in the Moisture Source of Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: Evidence has suggested a wetting trend over part of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades, although there are large uncertainties in this trend due to sparse observations. Examining the change in the moisture source for precipitation over a region in the TP with the most obvious increasing precipitation trend may help understand the precipitation change. This study applied the modified Water Accounting Model with two atmospheric reanalyses, ground-observed precipitation, and evaporation from a land surface model to investigate the change in moisture source of the precipitation over the targeted region. The study estimated that on average more than 69% and more than 21% of the moisture supply to precipitation over the targeted region came from land and ocean, respectively. The moisture transports from the west of the TP by the westerlies and from the southwest by the Indian summer monsoon likely contributed the most to precipitation over the targeted region. The moisture from inside the region...

A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002

Abstract: A significant reduction in summer monsoon rainfall has been observed in northern central India during the second half of the twentieth century, threatening water security and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. Here, using various observational data sets, we show that monsoon rainfall has increased in India at 1.34 mm d−1 decade−1 since 2002. This apparent revival of summer monsoon precipitation is closely associated with a favourable land–ocean temperature gradient, driven by a strong warming signature over the Indian subcontinent and slower rates of warming over the Indian Ocean. The continental Indian warming is attributed to a reduction of low cloud due to decreased ocean evaporation in the Arabian Sea, and thus decreased moisture transport to India. Global climate models fail to capture the observed rainfall revival and corresponding trends of the land–ocean temperature gradient, with implications for future projections of the Indian monsoon. Since ∼1950, a significant reduction in Indian monsoon rainfall has been observed. Here, it is shown that land–ocean temperature contrasts have produced more favourable monsoon conditions since 2002, reviving summer monsoon rainfall over India.

Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment

Abstract: Recent trends, variations and tele-connections between the two large regional sub-systems over the Asian domain, the South Asian and the East Asian monsoons are explored using data for the 1901–2014 period. Based on trend analysis a dipole-type configuration with north-drought and south-flood over South as well as East Asia is observed. Two regions over South Asia, one exhibiting a significant decreasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India and the other significant increasing trend over the northern parts of the west coast of India are identified. Similarly two regions over East Asia, one over South Korea-southern parts of Japan and the other over South China are also identified both indicating a significant increasing trend in the summer monsoon rainfall. These trends are examined post 1970s. Possible factors associated with the recent trends are explored. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure and winds at lower troposphere indicates that the entire monsoon flow system appears to have shifted westwards, with the monsoon trough over South Asia indicating a westward shift by about 2–3° longitudes and the North Pacific Subtropical High over East Asia seems to have shifted by about 5–7° longitudes. These shifts are consistent with the recent rainfall trends. Furthermore, while the West Indian Ocean SSTs appear to be related with the summer monsoon rainfall over northern parts of India and over North China, the West Pacific SSTs appear to be related with the rainfall over southern parts of India and over South Korea- southern Japan sector.

Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability

Abstract: Identifying mechanisms driving spatially heterogeneous glacial mass-balance patterns in the Himalaya, including the ‘Karakoram anomaly’, is crucial for understanding regional water resource trajectories. Streamflows dependent on glacial meltwater are strongly positively correlated with Karakoram summer air temperatures, which show recent anomalous cooling. We explain these temperature and streamflow anomalies through a circulation system—the Karakoram vortex—identified using a regional circulation metric that quantifies the relative position and intensity of the westerly jet. Winter temperature responses to this metric are homogeneous across South Asia, but the Karakoram summer response diverges from the rest of the Himalaya. We show that this is due to seasonal contraction of the Karakoram vortex through its interaction with the South Asian monsoon. We conclude that interannual variability in the Karakoram vortex, quantified by our circulation metric, explains the variability in energy-constrained ablation manifested in river flows across the Himalaya, with important implications for Himalayan glaciers’ futures. The mass balance of glaciers will influence regional water resources in the Himalayas. Changes in atmospheric dynamics, the Karakoram vortex contraction, and interaction with the monsoon influence the glacial melt of the region.

Contrasting response of rainfall extremes to increase in surface air and dewpoint temperatures at urban locations in India.

Abstract: Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the warming climate. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship provides a physical basis to understand the sensitivity of rainfall extremes in response to warming, however, relationships between rainfall extremes and air temperature over tropical regions remain uncertain. Here, using station based observations and remotely sensed rainfall, we show that at a majority of urban locations, rainfall extremes show a negative scaling relationship against surface air temperature (SAT) in India. The negative relationship between rainfall extremes and SAT in India can be attributed to cooling (SAT) due to the monsoon season rain events in India, suggesting that SAT alone is not a good predictor of rainfall extremes in India. In contrast, a strong (higher than C-C rate) positive relationship between rainfall extremes and dew point (DPT) and tropospheric temperature (T850) is shown for most of the stations, which was previously unexplored. Subsequently, DPT and T850 were used as covariates for non-stationary daily design storms. Higher magnitude design storms were obtained under the assumption of a non-stationary climate. The contrasting relationship between rainfall extremes with SAT and DPT has implications for understanding the changes in rainfall extremes in India under the projected climate.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone.

Abstract: An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (∼15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (∼35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

Abstract: The exact extent, by which the hydrologic cycle in the Neotropics was affected by external forcing during the last deglaciation, remains poorly understood. Here we present a new paleo-rainfall reconstruction based on high-resolution speleothem δ18O records from the core region of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), documenting the changing hydrological conditions over tropical South America (SA), in particular during abrupt millennial-scale events. This new record provides the best-resolved and most accurately constrained geochronology of any proxy from South America for this time period, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene.

Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming

Abstract: Future changes in the North American monsoon, a circulation system that brings abundant summer rains to vast areas of the North American Southwest, could have significant consequences for regional water resources. How this monsoon will change with increasing greenhouse gases, however, remains unclear, not least because coarse horizontal resolution and systematic sea-surface temperature biases limit the reliability of its numerical model simulations. Here we investigate the monsoon response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) concentrations using a 50-km-resolution global climate model which features a realistic representation of the monsoon climatology and its synoptic-scale variability. It is found that the monsoon response to CO_2 doubling is sensitive to sea-surface temperature biases. When minimizing these biases, the model projects a robust reduction in monsoonal precipitation over the southwestern United States, contrasting with previous multi-model assessments. Most of this precipitation decline can be attributed to increased atmospheric stability, and hence weakened convection, caused by uniform sea-surface warming. These results suggest improved adaptation measures, particularly water resource planning, will be required to cope with projected reductions in monsoon rainfall in the American Southwest.

Diurnal Variations of Rainfall in Surface and Satellite Observations at the Monsoon Coast (South China)

Abstract: The complex features of rainfall diurnal cycles at South China coast are examined using hourly rain-gauge data and satellite products (CMORPH and TRMM-3B42) during 1998–2014. It is shown that morning rainfall is pronounced near the coasts and windward mountains with high rainfall in the summer monsoon season, while afternoon rainfall is dominant on land and nocturnal rainfall occurs at northern inland sites. Both satellite products report less morning rainfall and more afternoon rainfall than rain-gauge data, and they also miss the midnight rainfall minimum. These errors are mainly attributable to an underestimation of morning moderate/intense rains at coasts and an overestimation of afternoon–evening light rains on land. With a correction of the systematic bias, satellite products faithfully resolve the spatial patterns of normalized rainfall diurnal cycles related to land-sea contrast and terrains, suggesting an improved data application for regional climate studies. In particular, they are comp...

Aerosol-weakened summer monsoons decrease lake fertilization on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Abstract: Historically, warm periods enhanced the Asian summer monsoon—increased rainfall brought additional nutrients to freshwater ecosystems and increased production. However, anthropogenic aerosols have weakened the monsoon and altered lake ecosystems. Anthropogenic aerosol increases over the past few decades have weakened the Asian summer monsoon1,2,3 with potentially far-reaching socio-economic and ecological repercussions. However, it is unknown how these changes will affect freshwater ecosystems that are important to densely populated regions of Asia. High-resolution diatom records and other proxy data archived in lake sediment cores from the Chinese Loess Plateau allow the comparison of summer monsoon intensity, lake trophic status and aquatic ecosystem responses during warming periods over the past two millennia. Here we show that an abrupt shift towards eutrophic limnological conditions coincided with historical warming episodes4,5, marked by increased wind intensity and summer monsoon rainfall leading to phosphorus-laden soil erosion and natural lake fertilization. In contrast, aerosol-affected Anthropocene warming catalysed a marked weakening in summer monsoon intensity leading to decreases in soil erosion and lake mixing. The recent warm period triggered a strikingly different aquatic ecosystem response with a limnological regime shift marked by turnover in diatom species composition now dominated by oligotrophic taxa, consistent with reductions in nutrient fertilization, reduced ice cover and increased thermal stratification6. Anthropogenic aerosols have altered climate–monsoon dynamics that are unparalleled in the past ∼2,000 years, ushering in a new ecological state.

Relationship between the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and Summer Rainfall over Central Asia and North China: Roles of the Indian Monsoon and the South Asian High

Abstract: Diagnostic analyses are performed to investigate the relationship between the upper-level Asian westerly jet stream (AWJS) and the associated rainfall pattern over the AWJS region in boreal summer on interannual time scales. Results show an out-of-phase rainfall variation over central Asia (CA) and north China (NC), which is closely related to the southeast–northwest (SE–NW) shift of the AWJS. The physical mechanisms on the relationship between the AWJS and the rainfall pattern are revealed by exploring the effects of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the South Asian high (SAH). It is found that the SE–NW shifts of the AWJS and SAH associated with the ISM lead to the anomalous circulations over the midlatitudes in the AWJS region and cause rainfall anomalies over CA and NC. A weak ISM results in a southeastward shift of SAH, which is responsible for a southeastward shift of the AWJS. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the southeastward located SAH produces anomalous updrafts (...

Declining pre-monsoon dust loading over South Asia: Signature of a changing regional climate

Abstract: Desert dust over the Indian region during pre-monsoon season is known to strengthen monsoon circulation, by modulating rainfall through the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism. In this context, an insight into long term trends of dust loading over this region is of significant importance in understanding monsoon variability. In this study, using long term (2000 to 2015) aerosol measurements from multiple satellites, ground stations and model based reanalysis, we show that dust loading in the atmosphere has decreased by 10 to 20% during the pre-monsoon season with respect to start of this century. Our analysis reveals that this decrease is a result of increasing pre-monsoon rainfall that in turn increases (decreases) wet scavenging (dust emissions) and slowing circulation pattern over the Northwestern part of the sub-continent.

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall.

Abstract: Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50%.

Wetting and greening Tibetan Plateau in early summer in recent decades

Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an essential role in the global hydrological cycle Unlike the well-recognized surface warming, changes in precipitation over the TP and the underlying mechanisms remain ambiguous A significant increase in the amount of precipitation over the southeastern TP in May over 1979–2014 (1346% decade−1 of the climatology) is identified in this study, based on homogenized daily rain gauge data Both the increased precipitation frequency and intensity have contributions The coherent increases in soil moisture content and vegetation activities further confirm the precipitation trend, indicating a wetting and greening TP in the early summer in recent decades The moisture budget analysis shows that this wetting trend in the past four decades is dominated by the increased water vapor convergence due to circulation changes, while increases in specific humidity play a minor role The wetting trend over the TP in May results directly from the earlier onset of the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) since the late 1970s associated with the phase transition of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) around the late 1990s The earlier onset of the ASM triggers low level southwesterly anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean, promoting moisture convergence and increased precipitation over the TP in May Specifically the increased amount of precipitation after the onset of the ASM explains 95% of the increase in the total amount of precipitation in May

Performance of RegCM4 over Major River Basins in China

Abstract: A long-term simulation for the period 1990–2010 is conducted with the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics’ Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km. The Community Land Model (CLM) is used to describe land surface processes, with updates in the surface parameters, including the land cover and surface emissivity. The simulation is compared against observations to evaluate the model performance in reproducing the present day climatology and interannual variability over the 10 main river basins in China, with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are also considered in the model assessment. Results show that the model reproduces the present day climatology over China and its main river basins, with better performances in June–July–August compared to December–January–February (DJF). In DJF, we find a warm bias at high latitudes, underestimated precipitation in the south, and overestimated precipitation in the north. The model in general captures the observed interannual variability, with greater skill for temperature. We also find an underestimation of heavy precipitation events in eastern China, and an underestimation of consecutive dry days in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau. Similar biases for both mean climatology and extremes are found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis, indicating the difficulties for climate models in simulating extreme monsoon climate events over East Asia.

Indonesian throughflow drove Australian climate from humid pliocene to arid pleistocene

Abstract: Late Miocene to mid-Pleistocene sedimentary proxy records reveal that northwest Australia underwent an abrupt transition from dry to humid climate conditions at 5.5 million years (Ma), likely receiving year-round rainfall, but after ~3.3 Ma, climate shifted toward an increasingly seasonal precipitation regime. The progressive constriction of the Indonesian Throughflow likely decreased continental humidity and transferred control of northwest Australian climate from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, leading to drier conditions punctuated by monsoonal precipitation. The northwest dust pathway and fully established seasonal and orbitally controlled precipitation were in place by ~2.4 Ma, well after the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The transition from humid to arid conditions was driven by changes in Pacific and Indian Ocean circulation and regional atmospheric moisture transport, influenced by the emerging Maritime Continent. We conclude that the Maritime Continent is the switchboard modulating teleconnections between tropical and high-latitude climate systems.