Showing papers on "Monsoon published in 2018"

Divergent hydrological response to large-scale afforestation and vegetation greening in China

Abstract: China has experienced substantial changes in vegetation cover, with a 10% increase in the leaf area index and an ~41.5 million-hectare increase in forest area since the 1980s. Earlier studies have suggested that increases in leaf area and tree cover have led to a decline in soil moisture and runoff due to increased evapotranspiration (ET), especially in dry regions of China. However, those studies often ignored precipitation responses to vegetation increases, which could offset some of the negative impact on soil moisture by increased ET. We investigated 30-year vegetation impacts on regional hydrology by allowing for vegetation-induced changes in precipitation using a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model, with a higher spatial resolution zoomed grid over China. We found high spatial heterogeneity in the vegetation impacts on key hydrological variables across China. In North and Southeast China, the increased precipitation from vegetation greening and the increased forest area, although statistically insignificant, supplied enough water to cancel out enhanced ET, resulting in weak impact on soil moisture. In Southwest China, however, the increase in vegetation cover significantly reduced soil moisture while precipitation was suppressed by the weakened summer monsoon. In Northeast China, the only area where forest cover declined, soil moisture was significantly reduced, by -8.1 mm decade-1, likely because of an intensified anticyclonic circulation anomaly during summer. These results suggest that offline model simulations can overestimate the increase of soil dryness in response to afforestation in North China, if vegetation feedbacks lead to increased precipitation like in our study.

Divergent Hydrological Response to Large-scale Afforestation and Vegetation Greening in China

Abstract: China has experienced substantial changes in vegetation cover, with a 10% increase in the leaf area index and an ~41.5 million-hectare increase in forest area since the 1980s. Earlier studies have suggested that increases in leaf area and tree cover have led to a decline in soil moisture and runoff due to increased evapotranspiration (ET), especially in dry regions of China. However, those studies often ignored precipitation responses to vegetation increases, which could offset some of the negative impact on soil moisture by increased ET. We investigated 30-year vegetation impacts on regional hydrology by allowing for vegetation-induced changes in precipitation using a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model, with a higher spatial resolution zoomed grid over China. We found high spatial heterogeneity in the vegetation impacts on key hydrological variables across China. In North and Southeast China, the increased precipitation from vegetation greening and the increased forest area, although statistically insignificant, supplied enough water to cancel out enhanced ET, resulting in weak impact on soil moisture. In Southwest China, however, the increase in vegetation cover significantly reduced soil moisture while precipitation was suppressed by the weakened summer monsoon. In Northeast China, the only area where forest cover declined, soil moisture was significantly reduced, by -8.1 mm decade-1, likely because of an intensified anticyclonic circulation anomaly during summer. These results suggest that offline model simulations can overestimate the increase of soil dryness in response to afforestation in North China, if vegetation feedbacks lead to increased precipitation like in our study.

A 550,000-year record of East Asian monsoon rainfall from 10Be in loess

Abstract: Cosmogenic 10 Be flux from the atmosphere is a proxy for rainfall. Using this proxy, we derived a 550,000-year-long record of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall from Chinese loess. This record is forced at orbital precession frequencies, with higher rainfall observed during Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, although this response is damped during cold interstadials. The 10 Be monsoon rainfall proxy is also highly correlated with global ice-volume variations, which differs from Chinese cave δ 18 O, which is only weakly correlated. We argue that both EASM intensity and Chinese cave δ 18 O are not governed by high-northern-latitude insolation, as suggested by others, but rather by low-latitude interhemispheric insolation gradients, which may also strongly influence global ice volume via monsoon dynamics.

East Asian hydroclimate modulated by the position of the westerlies during Termination I

Abstract: Speleothem oxygen isotope records have revolutionized our understanding of the paleo East Asian monsoon, yet there is fundamental disagreement on what they represent in terms of the hydroclimate changes. We report a multiproxy speleothem record of monsoon evolution during the last deglaciation from the middle Yangtze region, which indicates a wetter central eastern China during North Atlantic cooling episodes, despite the oxygen isotopic record suggesting a weaker monsoon. We show that this apparent contradiction can be resolved if the changes are interpreted as a lengthening of the Meiyu rains and shortened post-Meiyu stage, in accordance with a recent hypothesis. Model simulations support this interpretation and further reveal the role of the westerlies in communicating the North Atlantic influence to the East Asian climate.

Rapid incision of the Mekong River in the middle Miocene linked to monsoonal precipitation

Abstract: The uplift of orogenic plateaus has been assumed to be coincident with the fluvial incision of the gorges that commonly cut plateau margins. The Mekong River, which drains the eastern Qiangtang Terrane and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, is one of the ten largest rivers in the world by water and sediment discharge. When the Mekong River was established remains highly debated—with estimates that range from more than 55 to less than 5 million years ago—despite being a key constraint on the elevation history of the Tibetan Plateau. Here we report low-temperature thermochronology data from river bedrock samples that reveal a phase of rapid downward incision (>700 m) of the Mekong River during the middle Miocene about 17 million years ago, long after the uplift of the central and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, this coincides with a period of enhanced East Asian summer monsoon precipitation over the region compared with the early Miocene. Using stream profile modelling, we demonstrate that such an increase in precipitation could have produced the observed incision in the Mekong River. In the absence of an obvious tectonic contribution, we suggest that the rapid incision of the Tibetan Plateau and the establishment of the Mekong River in the middle Miocene may be attributed to increased erosion during a period of high monsoon precipitation. Incision of the Mekong River that occurred after the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau may have been driven by a period of high monsoon precipitation, as suggested by age data from river bedrock samples and stream profile modelling.

Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions

Abstract: The Paris Agreement set a goal to keep global warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. Understanding how 0.5 °C less warming reduces impacts and risks is key for climate policies. Here, we show that both areal and population exposures to dangerous extreme precipitation events (e.g., once in 10- and 20-year events) would increase consistently with warming in the populous global land monsoon regions based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel projections. The 0.5 °C less warming would reduce areal and population exposures to once-in-20-year extreme precipitation events by 25% (18–41%) and 36% (22–46%), respectively. The avoided impacts are more remarkable for more intense extremes. Among the monsoon subregions, South Africa is the most impacted, followed by South Asia and East Asia. Our results improve the understanding of future vulnerability to, and risk of, climate extremes, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation activities for the global monsoon region where nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives. The populous global land monsoon region has been suffering from extreme precipitation. Here, the authors show that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C could reduce areal and population exposures to baseline once-in-20-year rainfall extremes by 25% (18–41%) and 36% (22–46%), respectively.

State of the climate in 2017

Abstract: In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Nina conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Nino year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolivar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

Ice-volume-forced erosion of the Chinese Loess Plateau global Quaternary stratotype site.

Abstract: The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) utilises benchmark chronostratigraphies to divide geologic time. The reliability of these records is fundamental to understand past global change. Here we use the most detailed luminescence dating age model yet published to show that the ICS chronology for the Quaternary terrestrial type section at Jingbian, desert marginal Chinese Loess Plateau, is inaccurate. There are large hiatuses and depositional changes expressed across a dynamic gully landform at the site, which demonstrates rapid environmental shifts at the East Asian desert margin. We propose a new independent age model and reconstruct monsoon climate and desert expansion/contraction for the last ~250 ka. Our record demonstrates the dominant influence of ice volume on desert expansion, dust dynamics and sediment preservation, and further shows that East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) variation closely matches that of ice volume, but lags insolation by ~5 ka. These observations show that the EASM at the monsoon margin does not respond directly to precessional forcing.

Precession-band variance missing from East Asian monsoon runoff

Abstract: Speleothem CaCO3 δ18O is a commonly employed paleomonsoon proxy. However, inferring local rainfall amount from speleothem δ18O can be complicated due to changing source water δ18O, temperature effects, and rainout over the moisture transport path. These complications are addressed using δ18O of planktonic foraminiferal CaCO3, offshore from the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The advantage is that the effects of global seawater δ18O and local temperature changes can be quantitatively removed, yielding a record of local seawater δ18O, a proxy that responds primarily to dilution by local precipitation and runoff. Whereas YRV speleothem δ18O is dominated by precession-band (23 ky) cyclicity, local seawater δ18O is dominated by eccentricity (100 ky) and obliquity (41 ky) cycles, with almost no precession-scale variance. These results, consistent with records outside the YRV, suggest that East Asian monsoon rainfall is more sensitive to greenhouse gas and high-latitude ice sheet forcing than to direct insolation forcing.

The monsoon system: Land–sea breeze or the ITCZ?

Abstract: For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land–sea breeze driven by the land–ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford’s (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

Understanding the Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation: Joint Influence of Three Oceanic Signals

Abstract: East Asian summer monsoon precipitation (EASMP) features complicated interdecadal variability with multiple time periods and spatial patterns. Using century-long datasets of HadISST, CRU precipitation and ERA-20C reanalysis, this study examines the joint influence of three oceanic interdecadal signals, i.e., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM), on the EASMP, which, however, is found not to be simply a linear combination of their individual effects. When PDO and AMO are out of phase, the same sign SST anomalies occur in North Pacific and North Atlantic, and a zonally-orientated teleconnection wave train appears across the Eurasian mid-high latitudes, propagating from North Atlantic to northern East Asia along the Asian westerly jet waveguide. Correspondingly, the interdecadal precipitation anomalies are characterized by a meridional tripole mode over eastern China. When PDO and AMO are in phase, with opposite sign SST anomal...

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015–2016

Abstract: During austral summer 2015–2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3–4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian‐Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Nino and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air‐sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data‐assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Nino events.

The South Asian monsoon-pollution pump and purifier.

Abstract: Air pollution is growing fastest in monsoon-affected South Asia. During the dry winter monsoon, the fumes disperse toward the Indian Ocean, creating a vast pollution haze, but their fate during the wet summer monsoon has been unclear. We performed atmospheric chemistry measurements by aircraft in the Oxidation Mechanism Observations campaign, sampling the summer monsoon outflow in the upper troposphere between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. The measurements, supported by model calculations, show that the monsoon sustains a remarkably efficient cleansing mechanism by which contaminants are rapidly oxidized and deposited to Earth's surface. However, some pollutants are lofted above the monsoon clouds and chemically processed in a reactive reservoir before being redistributed globally, including to the stratosphere.

Assembly and division of the South and South-East Asian flora in relation to tectonics and climate change

Abstract: The main phases of plant dispersal into, and out of the South-East Asian region are discussed in relation to plate tectonics and changing climates. The South-East Asian area was a backwater of angiosperm evolution until the collision of the Indian Plate with Asia during the early Cenozoic. The Late Cretaceous remains poorly understood, but the Paleocene topography was mountainous, and the climate was probably seasonally dry, with the result that frost-tolerant conifers were common in upland areas and a low-diversity East Asian aspect flora occurred at low altitudes. India's drift into the perhumid low latitudes during the Eocene brought opportunities for the dispersal into South-East Asia of diverse groups of megathermal angiosperms which originated in West Gondwana. They successfully dispersed and became established across the South-East Asian region, initially carried by wind or birds, beginning at about 49 Ma, and with a terrestrial connection after about 41 Ma. Many Paleocene lineages probably went extinct, but a few dispersed in the opposite direction into India. The Oligocene was a time of seasonally dry climates except along the eastern and southern seaboard of Sundaland, but with the collision of the Australian Plate with Sunda at the end of the Oligocene widespread perhumid conditions became established across the region. The uplift of the Himalaya, coinciding with the middle Miocene thermal maximum, created opportunities for South-East Asian evergreen taxa to disperse into north India, and then with the late Miocene strengthening of the Indian monsoon, seasonally dry conditions expanded across India and Indochina, resulting eventually in the disappearance of closed forest over much of the Indian peninsula. This drying affected Sunda, but it is thought unlikely that a ‘savanna’ corridor was present across Sunda during the Pleistocene. Some dispersals from Australasia occurred following its collision with Sunda and following the uplift of New Guinea and the islands of Wallacea, Gondwanan montane taxa also found their way into the region. Phases of uplift across the Sunda region created opportunities for allopatric speciation and further dispersal opportunities. There is abundant evidence to suggest that the Pleistocene refuge theory applies to the South-East Asian region.

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

Abstract: Analysis of regional climate simulations to evaluate the ability of 11 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in South Asia experiments (CORDEX-South Asia) along with their ensemble to produce precipitation from June to September (JJAS) over the Himalayan region have been carried out. These suite of 11 combinations come from 6 regional climate models (RCMs) driven with 10 initial and boundary conditions from different global climate models and are collectively referred here as 11 CORDEX South Asia experiments. All the RCMs use a similar domain and are having similar spatial resolution of 0.44° (~50 km). The set of experiments are considered to study precipitation sensitivity associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the study region. This effort is made as ISM plays a vital role in summertime precipitation over the Himalayan region which acts as driver for the sustenance of habitat, population, crop, glacier, hydrology etc. In addition, so far the summer monsoon precipitation climatology over the Himalayan region has not been studied with the help of CORDEX data. Thus this study is initiated to evaluate the ability of the experiments and their ensemble in reproducing the characteristics of summer monsoon precipitation over Himalayan region, for the present climate (1970–2005). The precipitation climatology, annual precipitation cycles and interannual variabilities from each simulation have been assessed against the gridded observational dataset: Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources for the given time period. Further, after the selection of the better performing experiment the frequency distribution of precipitation was also studied. In this study, an approach has also been made to study the degree of agreement among individual experiments as a way to quantify the uncertainty among them. The experiments though show a wide variation among themselves and individually over time and space in simulating precipitation distribution over the study region, but noticeably along the foothills of the Himalayas all the simulations show dry precipitation bias against the corresponding observation. In addition, as we move towards higher elevation regions these experiments in general show wet bias. The experiment driven by EC-EARTH global climate model and downscaled using Rossby Center regional Atmospheric model version 4 developed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI-RCA4) simulate precipitation closely in correspondence with the observation. The ensemble outperforms the result of individual experiments. Correspondingly, different kinds of statistical analysis like spatial and temporal correlation, Taylor diagram, frequency distribution and scatter plot have been performed to compare the model output with observation and to explain the associated resemblance, robustness and dynamics statistically. Through the bias and ensemble spread analysis, an estimation of the uncertainty of the model fields and the degree of agreement among them has also been carried out in this study. Overview of the study suggests that these experiments facilitate precipitation evolution and structure over the Himalayan region with certain degree of uncertainty.

The Kerala flood of 2018: combined impact of extreme rainfall and reservoir storage

Abstract: . Extreme precipitation events and flooding that cause losses to human lives and infrastructure have increased under the warming climate. In August 2018, the state of Kerala (India) witnessed large-scale flooding, which affected millions of people and caused 400 or more deaths. Here, we examine the return period of extreme rainfall and the potential role of reservoirs in the recent flooding in Kerala. We show that Kerala experienced 53 % above normal rainfall during the monsoon season (till August 21st) of 2018. Moreover, 1, 2, and 3-day extreme rainfall in Kerala during August 2018 had return periods of 75, 200, and 100 years. Six out of seven major reservoirs were at more than 90 % of their full capacity on August 8, 2018, before extreme rainfall in Kerala. Extreme rainfall at 1–15 days durations in August 2018 in the catchments upstream of the three major reservoirs (Idukki, Kakki, and Periyar) had the return period of more than 500 years. Extreme rainfall and almost full reservoirs resulted in a significant release of water in a short-span of time. Therefore, above normal seasonal rainfall (before August 8, 2018), high reservoir storage, and unprecedented extreme rainfall in the catchments where reservoirs are located worsened the flooding in Kerala. Reservoir operations need be improved using a skillful forecast of extreme rainfall at the longer lead time (4–7 days).

Hydroclimatological Perspective of the Kerala Flood of 2018

Abstract: Flood is among the deadliest disasters in India, and the frequency of floods and extreme precipitation events is projected to increase under the warming climate. The frequency of floods in India varies geographically as some regions are more prone to floods than the others. The Kerala flood of 2018 caused enormous economic damage, affected millions of people, and resulted in the death of more than 400 people. Here we provide a hydroclimatological perspective on the Kerala flood of 2018. Using the observations and model simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, we show that the 2018 extreme precipitation and runoff conditions that caused flooding were unprecedented in the record of the past 66 years (1951–2017). Our results show that mean monsoon precipitation has significantly declined while air temperature has significantly increased during 1951–2017 in Kerala. The drying and warming trends during the monsoon season resulted in a declined total runoff in large part of the state in the last 66 years. Apart from the mean hydroclimatic conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme total runoff have also declined from 1951 to 2017. However, 1 and 2-day extreme precipitation and extreme runoff conditions in August 2018 exceeded substantially from the long-term 95th percentiles recorded during 1951–2017. Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic.

Abstract: Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

Refinement of Miocene sea level and monsoon events from the sedimentary archive of the Maldives (Indian Ocean)

Abstract: International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 359 cored sediments from eight borehole locations in the carbonate platform of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. The expedition set out to unravel the timing of Neogene climate changes, in particular the evolution of the South Asian monsoon and fluctuations of the sea level. The timing of these changes are assessed by dating resultant sedimentary alterations that mark stratigraphic turning points in the Neogene Maldives platform system. The first four turning points during the early and middle Miocene are related to sea-level changes. These are reliably recorded in the stratigraphy of the carbonate sequences in which sequence boundaries provide the ages of the sea-level lowstand. Phases of aggradational platform growth give precise age brackets of long-term sea-level high stands during the early Miocene and the early to middle Miocene Climate Optimum that is dated here between 17 to 15.1 Ma. The subsequent middle Miocene cooling coincident with the eastern Antarctic ice sheet expansion resulted in a long-term lowering of sea level that is reflected by a progradational platform growth. The change in platform architecture from aggradation to progradation marks this turning point at 15.1 Ma. An abrupt change in sedimentation pattern is recognized across the entire archipelago at a sequence boundary dated as 12.9–13 Ma. At this turning point, the platform sedimentation switched to a current-controlled mode when the monsoon-wind-driven circulation started in the Indian Ocean. The similar age of the onset of drift deposition from monsoon-wind-driven circulation across the entire archipelago indicates an abrupt onset of monsoon winds in the Indian Ocean. Ten unconformities dissect the drift sequences, attesting changes in current strength or direction that are likely caused by the combined product of changes in the monsoon-wind intensity and sea level fluctuations in the last 13 Ma. A major shift in the drift packages is dated with 3.8 Ma that coincides with the end of stepwise platform drowning and a reduction of the oxygen minimum zone in the Inner Sea. The strata of the Maldives platform provides a detailed record of the extrinsic controlling factors on carbonate platform growth through time. This potential of carbonate platforms for dating the Neogene climate and current changes has been exploited in other platforms drilled by the Ocean Drilling Program. For example, Great Bahama Bank, the Queensland Plateau, and the platforms on the Marion Plateau show similar histories with sediment architectures driven by sea level in their early history (early to middle Miocene) replaced by current-driven drowning or partial drowning during their later history (Late Miocene). In all three platform systems, the influence of currents on sedimentations is reported between 11 and 13 Ma.

Decadal surface temperature trends in India based on a new high-resolution data set

Abstract: A new comprehensive surface temperature data set for India is used to document changes in Indian temperature over seven decades, in order to examine the patterns and possible effects of global warming. The data set is subdivided into pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon categories in order to study the temperature patterns in each of these periods. When the decade means in maximum, minimum and daily mean temperature for the 2000s are compared to those of the 1950s, a consistent pattern of warming is found over northwestern and southern India, and a pattern of cooling is seen in a broad zone anchored over northeastern India and extending southwestward across central India. These patterns are explained by the presence of a large region of anthropogenic brown haze over India and adjacent ocean regions. These aerosols absorb solar radiation, leading to warming of the haze layer over northeastern and central India and to cooling of the surface air beneath. The heated air rises and then sinks to the north and south of the haze region over northwestern and southern India, warming the air by compression as it sinks in those regions. The possible impact of these temperature patterns on Indian agriculture is considered.

Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean

Abstract: The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool are poorly understood. Here, we address this question by combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate. We find evidence of two mechanisms explaining key patterns of ocean cooling and rainfall change interpreted from proxy data. Exposure of the Sahul shelf excites a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback involving a stronger surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean and a weaker Walker circulation-a response explaining the drier/wetter dipole across the basin. Northern Hemisphere cooling by ice sheet albedo drives a monsoonal retreat across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula-a response that triggers a weakening of the Indian monsoon via cooling of the Arabian Sea and associated reductions in moisture supply. These results demonstrate the importance of air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean, amplifying externally forced climate changes over a large part of the tropics.

Intensified Summer Monsoon and the Urbanization of Indus Civilization in Northwest India

Abstract: Today the desert margins of northwest India are dry and unable to support large populations, but were densely occupied by the populations of the Indus Civilization during the middle to late Holocene. The hydroclimatic conditions under which Indus urbanization took place, which was marked by a period of expanded settlement into the Thar Desert margins, remains poorly understood. We measured the isotopic values (δ18O and δD) of gypsum hydration water in paleolake Karsandi sediments in northern Rajasthan to infer past changes in lake hydrology, which is sensitive to changing amounts of precipitation and evaporation. Our record reveals that relatively wet conditions prevailed at the northern edge of Rajasthan from ~5.1 ± 0.2 ka BP, during the beginning of the agricultural-based Early Harappan phase of the Indus Civilization. Monsoon rainfall intensified further between 5.0 and 4.4 ka BP, during the period when Indus urban centres developed in the western Thar Desert margin and on the plains of Haryana to its north. Drier conditions set in sometime after 4.4 ka BP, and by ~3.9 ka BP an eastward shift of populations had occurred. Our findings provide evidence that climate change was associated with both the expansion and contraction of Indus urbanism along the desert margin in northwest India.