Showing papers on "Natural disaster published in 1988"

Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar

Abstract: It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Coping with Extreme Hazard Events: Emerging themes in Natural and Technological Disaster Research

Abstract: The field of thanatology has given extensive attention to death as an outcome of illness. A more comprehensive picture, however, would also encompass the hazards of natural and technological disasters. Deaths from both natural and technological disasters continue to increase in the United States, despite intensified government efforts to reverse this trend, and despite improved understanding of the cognitive processes of people who face either long-term or impending catastrophes. Key findings are reviewed in the areas of vulnerability to natural hazards, disaster behavior and risk perception, societal concern over technological hazard, and the social-psychological effects of disasters. It is noted that findings based upon natural disasters cannot necessarily be extrapolated to technological disasters, such as the Three Mile Island nuclear accident. Furthermore, data on long-term emotional recovery from natural disasters are inconsistent. Among areas requiring more extensive research is the role of the med...

On mitigating rapid onset natural disasters: Project THRUST (Tsunami Hazards Reduction Utilizing Systems Technology)

Abstract: Rapid onset natural hazards have claimed more than 2.8 million lives worldwide in the past 20 years. This category includes such events as earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, tornados, floods, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and tsunamis. Effective hazard mitigation is particularly difficult in such cases, since the time available to issue warnings can be very short or even nonexistent. This paper presents the concept of a local warning system that exploits and integrates the existing technologies of risk evaluation, environmental measurement, and telecommunications. We describe Project THRUST, a successful implementation of this general, systematic approach to tsunamis. The general approach includes pre-event emergency planning, real-time hazard assessment, and rapid warning via satellite communication links.

Decade for natural disaster reduction: An opportunity for international scientific cooperation

Abstract: Natural hazards, created when environmental processes such as earthquakes, windstorms, floods, landslides, wildfires, and drought occur in conflict with human populations, continue to take their toll in lives and human suffering. About three million people around the world have been killed in the past two decades, and the lives of about 800 million other people have been adversely affected [U.N. General Assembly, 1987b]. Short-term economic losses have been estimated at $1–$5 billion annually. Single disasters have caused losses in developing countries equal to their annual GNP. Total losses, including damage to health and welfare of human populations from effects of long-term environmental disasters such as desertification and negative effects of global climate change, are accumulating at an alarming rate. Mounting losses of life and property, and economic and political insecurity exacerbated by the effects of disasters, spurred the idea of an organized worldwide effort for a decade devoted to the reduction of natural hazards.

Physical Planning for Multi-Hazard Mitigation

Abstract: Earthquakes that have affected Lima-Peru, during this century have clearly shown microzonation effects. So, in the 1970s a microzonation method was developed in Peru in which all natural disasters threatening the area of interest were included: earthquakes, floods, land slides, slope and soil failures, avalanches, tsunamis, etc. At the end of that decade the method was simplified to obtain wider application, specially in the urban planning of small and medium size communities.

Volcanic hazards mitigation: A component of the U.N. International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction

Abstract: Natural hazards present a world problem that transcends political boundaries and often results in large loss of life, economic losses, and other hardships, which are particularly acute in more vulnerable countries of the developing world. It has been estimated that natural disasters have claimed about 3 million lives worldwide in the past two decades, adversely affected the lives of at least 800 million people, and caused immediate damages estimated at $100 billion. Losses due to natural disasters are clearly on the increase, due to rapid population growth and increasing concentration of the growth in vulnerable areas. When a natural disaster strikes, the global community reacts in the form of financial aid and other assistance to the stricken nation. In the last decade, for example, direct annual foreign disaster assistance by the U.S. government has ranged from $100 to $800 million. However, despite the considerable sums involved, international aid to stricken countries rarely exceeds 4% of disaster losses.