Showing papers on "Natural disaster published in 2003"

The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience

Abstract: When disaster strikes in cities the effects can be catastrophic compared to other environments. But what factors actually determine the vulnerability or resilience of cities? The Vulnerability of Cities fills a vital gap in disaster studies by examining the too-often overlooked impact of disasters on cities, the conditions leading to high losses from urban disasters and why some households and communities withstand disaster more effectively than others. Mark Pelling takes a fresh look at the literature on disasters and urbanization in light of recent catastrophes. He presents three detailed studies of cities in the global South, drawn from countries with contrasting political and developmental contexts: Bridgetown, Barbados - a liberal democracy; Georgetown, Guyana - a post socialist-state; and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic - an authoritarian state in democratic transition. This book demonstrates that strengthening local capacity - through appropriate housing, disaster-preparedness, infrastructure and livelihoods - is crucial to improving civic resilience to disasters. Equally important are strong partnerships between local community-based organizations, external non-governmental and governmental organizations, public and private sectors and between city and national government. The author highlights and discusses these best practices for handling urban disasters. With rapid urbanization across the globe, this book is a must-read for professionals, policy-makers, students and researchers in disaster management, urban development and planning, transport planning, architecture, social studies and earth sciences.

The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography and Institutions

Abstract: Using a new data set on annual deaths from natural disasters in 48 nations from 1980 to 1999, this paper tests several hypotheses concerning disaster mitigation. While richer nations do not experience fewer natural disaster shocks than poorer nations, richer nations do suffer less death from disaster. Democracies and nations with higher quality institutions suffer less death from natural disaster. The results are relevant for judging the incidence of a Global Warming induced increased in the count of natural disaster shocks.

Cultures of Disaster : Society and Natural Hazard in the Philippines

Abstract: In this fascinating and comprehensive study, Greg Bankoff traces the history of natural hazards in the Philippines from the records kept by the Spanish colonisers to the 'Calamitous Nineties', and assesses the effectiveness of the relief mechanisms that have evolved to cope with these occurrences. He also examines the correlation between this history of natural disasters and the social hierarchy within Filipino society. The constant threat of disaster has been integrated into the schema of daily life to such an extent that a 'culture of disaster' has been formed.

Building safer cities : the future of disaster risk

Abstract: Disaster impacts are increasing in severity, and affect communities far beyond the areas of geographic impact as regions are linked in new ways. While industrialized countries may register higher economic losses following a disaster, there have frequently systems in place to respond to the event to minimize loss life. Property is often covered by insurance. In developing countries, by contrast, disasters can cause major setbacks to economic and social development, inflict massive casualties, and cause the diversion of funds from development, to emergency relief and recovery. The papers in this volume were prepared as background material for the Conference on the Future of Disaster Risk : Building Safer Cities, and deal, in Part I, with subjects from vulnerability to disasters, risks, and associated costs, to the impact of globalization and the interdependent disaster risks, i.e., the need for public-private partnerships. Part II focuses on the environment, climate change, and adaptation, highlighting the resilience of coastal mega-cities to weather-related hazards, as well as flood management and vulnerability in different parts of the world. Part III refers to the social vulnerability aspects resulting from disaster impacts, through various case studies, and Part IV addresses how to protect critical infrastructure from disaster impacts.

Housing reconstruction after conflict and disaster

Abstract: Housing is essential to the wellbeing and development of most societies. It is a complex asset, with links to livelihoods, health, education, security and social and family stability. Housing is also an extremely vulnerable asset, and the destruction of homes or their loss through displacement or dispossession is one of the most visible effects of conflict and natural disaster. This paper argues that housing reconstruction should be a more prominent part of programming after conflict and disaster. Housing interventions face significant challenges that cannot simply be wished away. But if agencies are going to continue to do housing reconstruction in the aftermath of conflict and disaster, then there is a clear need to find ways of doing it better. This paper reviews experiences in housing reconstruction in the aftermath of natural disaster and conflict. It offers guidance on how to plan and prepare for a housing reconstruction intervention; describes the various housing reconstruction approaches available; and sets out the various models of implementation that tend to be used.

Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: normalized damage and loss potentials

Abstract: In late October 1998, the remnants of Hurricane Mitch stalled over Honduras and Nicaragua, killing more than 10,000 people and causing as much as $8.5 billion in damage. While Central America and the Caribbean have a history of natural disasters, the fatalities and destruction caused by Mitch were the greatest in at least several decades, prompting many questions including: What accounts for the extent of these losses? Is Mitch a harbinger of future disasters in the region? and What might be done in response? This paper seeks to shed light on these questions by examining the historical and geographic context of hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper examines trends in economic and other societal factors that increase vulnerability to hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean and includes a case study of normalized hurricane losses in Cuba made possible by newly collected damage data published herein. The paper places its findings into the context of policies related to climate change and natural hazards. The data and analysis in this paper suggest that the impacts of Hurricane Mitch were not anomalous when compared with a normalized record of past losses. Interrelated human-caused factors such as rapidly increasing populations, widespread poverty, deforestation and urbanization are shown to increase vulnerability to natural disasters such as Hurricane Mitch.

Natural disasters and development in a globalizing world

Abstract: Part I: Introduction 1. Paradigm of Risk Part II: Global Processes and Environmental Risk 2. Does Global Environmental Change cause Vulnerability to Disaster? 3. Changes in Capitalism and Global Shifts in the Distribution of Hazard and Vulnerability 4. Gender, Disaster and Development 5. Disasters, Costs and Adaptation in Developed and Developing Countries Part III: International Exchange and Vulnerability 6. Changing Actors: NGOs and the Private Sector 7. Disaster Diplomacy 8. The Insurance Industry: Can it Cope with Catastrophe? Part IV: Local Contexts and Global Pressures 9. The Social Construction of Disaster in UK and Egypt 10. Prevention or Cure for Catastrophic Events? Landslide at La Josefina, Ecuador 11. Community Level Disaster Mitigation: The Philippines 12. Flood Management and Regime Change in The Netherlands and Bangladesh 13. Unresolved Development Challenges: The Marmara Earthquake, Turkey 14. Ecological Reconstruction of the Upper Yangtze River, China Part V: Conclusion 15. Emerging Concerns

Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options

Abstract: Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area - that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on the poorest. It then reviews the key economic issues at stake, focusing in particular on the actual and prospective roles of, and interaction between, market instruments and public interventions in dealing with disaster risk. Key sources of market failure include the difficulty of risk spreading and, perhaps even more fundamental, the Samaritan's dilemma: the underinvestment in protective measures associated with the rational expectation that others will provide support if disaster occurs. Innovations addressing each of these are discussed.

Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: An empirical application using intervention analysis. Discussion Paper No. 154

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982 to 1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of forty-two severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of AUD5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of AUD100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival in the form of the natural disasters is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.

Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia, and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment

Abstract: The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazard prone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the human casualties of 'natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years. Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states. Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing the broader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awareness among the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutions in many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. The country-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely. There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics. as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, thereafter, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized.

Beyond Drought: People, Policy and Perspectives

Abstract: The unpredictability of Australia's climate poses real challenges for practices that were developed based on the relative predictability of a European climate. More recently, policy has been moving towards accepting drought as a reality, rejecting the notion that it is a natural disaster in favour of an approach based on risk management. However, the level of public debate during a drought event suggests that this policy approach has not been widely understood or accepted. Media reporting of drought rapidly adopts disaster-related language and the organisation of relief appeals reinforces the impression that drought is an aberration rather than a normal part of Australia's climate patterns. Beyond Drought provides a multi-disciplinary discussion aimed at increasing the level of understanding of drought's many facets and its impact on the environment, communities and the economy. It introduces a range of perspectives in order to emphasise the complexity of drought policy. The book cuts through the often emotional debate that occurs during a drought event, aiming to stimulate reasoned discussion about the best way that Australian farmers and the broader community can live with the vagaries of an uncertain climate.

The determinants of disaster vulnerability: Achieving sustainable mitigation through population health

Abstract: The growing appreciation of mitigation is highlighting theneed to develop a better understanding of what makes some people more vulnerable tothe impacts of a disaster. Health researchers have asked a similar question regarding thevarying vulnerability to illness within a population. This has lead to the identification of a setof social, physical and economic factors that are now referred to as the determinants of health.These factors are the same as those commonly associated with disaster vulnerability. Recognizingthat these same concepts are being applied in both the health and disaster management contextspresents an opportunity to also achieve a shared objective of reducing vulnerability withina population.

Disaster Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction

Abstract: This report was commissioned by the Natural Disasters Network of the Regional Policy Dialogue. This report constitutes Phase 2 of this project. While the first phase of the study discusses the components of a national system, the second focuses on instruments for financing reconstruction after a disaster. The research compares centralized, government-directed management systems with those that are localized and decentralized, and also analyzes the factors affecting the financial and political stability of alternative approaches. As natural disasters may result in major resource gaps for governments facing the task of financing reconstruction, the report presents case studies of four countries-Bolivia, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador-to highlight the various policy options. Alternative sources of ex ante funding are identified, including reserve funds, contingent credit, and insurance. These innovative methods of funding are compared with ex post funding possibilities through international aid, loan diversions and increased external debt, budget reallocations, and tax increases.

A strategic plan for disaster medicine in Australasia.

Abstract: Disaster epidemiology reveals epidemic increases in incidence of disasters. Rare disasters with catastrophic consequences also threaten modern populations. This paper profiles natural disasters, transportation incidents, emerging infectious diseases, complex disasters and terrorism for their historical and future potential impact on Australasia. Emergency physicians are in a position to assume leadership roles within the disaster management community in Australasia. The Australasian College for Emergency Medicine is in a position to lead medical specialty advances in disaster medicine in Australasia. To optimize its impact in disaster medicine, the specialty and its College have opportunities for advances in key areas of College administration, intra and interinstitutional representation, disaster preparedness and planning, disaster relief operations, education and training programs, applied clinical research, and faculty development.

The impact of volcanic eruptions during the 1990s

Abstract: The 1990s were proclaimed International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction by the General Assembly of United Nations. We constructed a database in order to evaluate the global impact of volcanic eruptions during the decade. During the 1990s, between 560 and 1,300 lives were lost because of volcanic activity. Two cities were completely devastated. More than 520,000 people were displaced and the economical loss exceeded one billion U.S. dollars. The majority of eruptions were announced by recognized precursors. The increase in awareness after the dramatic volcanic disasters of the 1980s lead in most cases to a more structured crisis management program and early evacuations that saved thousands of lives, which demonstrates that mitigation planning pays. The most devastating eruptions in term of fatalities and economic loss were from volcanoes that remained quiet for several centuries. This clearly demonstrates that late quaternary volcanic edifices close to populated areas should be identified, mapped, and monitored.

Economics of Flood Protection in India

Abstract: The peculiar rainfall pattern in India renders the country highly vulnerable to floods. Forty million hectares of land, roughly one-eighth of the country’s geographical area, is prone to floods. Each year, floods cause extensive damage to life and property, losses being exacerbated by rapid population growth, unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation. The country has been tackling the problem through structural and non-structural measures. While non-structural measures like flood forecasting aim at improving the preparedness to floods by seeking to keep people away from floodwaters, structural measures involve the construction of physical structures like embankments, dams, drainage channels, and reservoirs that prevent floodwaters from reaching potential damage centres. Almost 48% of the vulnerable area has been provided with reasonable protection, though floods continue to cause widespread losses year after year. This paper examines the incidence of floods and the trends in consequent losses in the eastern region of the country — one of the most vulnerable — with the objective of studying the efficacy of flood protection measures in the region. Based on a simple regression exercise for three highly vulnerable states in the region, the paper argues that flood protection measures have been inadequate in controlling losses and reducing vulnerability. Regressions for the three states over the period 1971 to 1996 indicate that the level of protection is an insignificant explanatory variable in explaining the number of people (adjusted for increases in density) affected by floods; while area affected, as an indicator of the intensity of floods remains the main loss-determining factor.

Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness

Abstract: A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period'' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms.

Disaster Risk Management by Communities and Local Governments

Abstract: This study refers to disaster risk management at the local level. The topic was selected by the members of the Natural Disasters Network of the Regional Policy Dialogue, and was presented during its 3rd Meeting, on March 6 and 7, 2003. The goal of this document is to achieve a better knowledge of the best practices and benefits that disaster risk management represents for Latin America and the Caribbean. Included are comparative case studies of the Philippines, Colombia, Guatemala and Switzerland. Also discussed are strengths and weaknesses of local organizations in decentralized systems and financial services for disaster risk management.

Natural disaster risk and cost-benefit analysis

Abstract: Natural disasters constitute a serious challenge, particularly for a number of developing countries where the impacts of these disasters are substantially larger than they are in more developed countries, due to a typically higher degree of vulnerability. Factors contributing to increased vulnerability comprise widespread poverty, high unemployment, distributional inequalities, high population growth, and lack of strong national and local institutions for dealing with disasters (Smith 1996: 42–46; Anderson 1995: 45; ECLAC/IDB 2000: 1). However, natural disaster risk is often insufficiently accounted for in decisionmaking. A major decisionmaking tool commonly used in the economic and financial evaluation of public investments is cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In the context of natural disaster risk, CBA is not used sufficiently. This risk is often neglected in CBA assessments of investment projects, risk management measures to reduce natural disaster risk are often not assessed by CBA, and risk is commonly represented by average values only. This paper will analyze these shortcomings and their consequences, focusing on the economic impacts of disasters. The next section discusses the impacts of natural disasters and the basic elements of CBA. Then the incorporation of natural disaster risk into CBA is examined, followed by a review of the current shortcomings in using CBA in the context of natural disaster risk and resulting consequences. A short case study illustrates some of the issues discussed. The final section summarizes the findings and provides recommendations for using cost-benefit analysis in assessing natural disaster risk. CBA and Natural Disaster Risk

Risk modeling, assessment, and management of lahar flow threat.

Abstract: The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.

Beyond disaster, beyond diplomacy

Abstract: Disaster diplomacy began with Kelman and Koukis (2000: 214) asking: ‘do natural disasters induce international cooperation amongst countries that have traditionally been “enemies”?’. They implied that local or regional disasters could positively affect bilateral relations amongst states which would not normally be prone to such co-operation, and that although disasters are felt at the local scale they might stimulate political co-operation at an international level. The potential for a locally situated disaster to affect international politics far beyond the physical reach of the disaster event is referred to here as a potentially globalizing effect of disaster. A similar but temporal disjunctive exists in the often fleeting interest of actors in disaster and diplomacy, compared to the longer-term gestation of root causes.

Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters: an Assessment of Their Effects and Options for Mitigation: Synthesis Report

Abstract: This study is undertaken at the Overseas Development Institute, London, as part of the program of the Disaster Management Facility, World Bank with financial support from the Conflict and Humanitarian Aid Department, DFID. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or DFID

Introduction to Natural and Man-made Disasters and Their Effects on Buildings

Abstract: Introduction: what constitutes a disaster, loss assessment, disaster management, preparedness, risk reduction, strategy trends Natural Disasters: earthquakes Case Studies: Romania, Turkey and Taiwan flooding Case Studies: France and UK weather conditions Case Studies: Florida, France, Alaska, UK Manmade disasters: conflict Case Studies: Northern Ireland, New York (WTC), and Romania fire Case Study: UK industrial accidents/pollution Case Study: Romania vandalism/neglect Case Study: UK Further sources of information Bibliography Index.

Financing Natural Disaster Risk Using Charity Contributions and Ex Ante Index Insurance

Abstract: The scale of loss from natural disasters in low-income countries often exceeds the resources of internal and external sources of relief funding. Catastrophe bonds offer the opportunity to transfer the risk of low-probability, high-loss events to the capital market where there is greater capacity to absorb disaster losses. This paper details some problems inherent in traditional sources of disaster relief and proposes an alternative mechanism for catastrophe risk transfer that unites financial innovations and donor communities.

Natural disaster management in iran during the 1990s--need for a new structure

Abstract: Iran is a disaster-prone country. A rapid rate of population growth, overurbanization, and environmental degradation have led to increasing risk to and vulnerability of structures and settlements. No significant and effective policy has, however, been developed to mitigate disaster risks in the country. During the last decade of the twentieth century, which was declared the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), extensive efforts were made at various levels to tackle this problem. In this article the activities of the decade in Iran will be reviewed, analyzed, and evaluated against certain criteria. A proposed structure for natural disaster management has been designed that is expected to improve conditions and overcome some of the existing problems and shortcomings. This plan is considered the most significant product of the IDNDR activities in Iran.

Disaster management in India: the case of livestock and poultry.

Abstract: Developing countries are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of disaster management systems, and increasing efforts are being made to streamline preparedness, response and recovery mechanisms at all levels. It is well known that many developing countries, including India, are not always well-prepared to deal with disasters. A lack of well-developed disaster management plans results in a severe loss of human life, animal life and property, which could be saved if the necessary mechanisms were in place. A lot needs to be done to improve the situation, particularly in regard to livestock. This paper describes in detail, with particular reference to India, what can be done to care for animals when natural disasters occur. The authors review various types of natural disasters and their impact on livestock, and outline different preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation strategies. The roles of different agencies, including veterinarians, are also considered.