Showing papers on "Natural disaster published in 2012"

Building Resilience: Social Capital in Post-Disaster Recovery

Abstract: Each year, natural disasters threaten the strength and stability of communities worldwide. Yet responses to the challenges of recovery vary greatly and in ways that aren't always explained by the magnitude of the catastrophe or the amount of aid provided by national governments or the international community. The difference between resilience and disrepair, Daniel P. Aldrich shows, lies in the depth of communities' social capital. "Building Resilience" highlights the critical role of social capital in the ability of a community to withstand disaster and rebuild the infrastructure and ties that are at the foundation of any community. Aldrich examines the post-disaster responses of four distinct communities - Tokyo following the 1923 earthquake, Kobe after the 1995 earthquake, Tamil Nadu after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and New Orleans post-Katrina - and finds that those with robust social networks were better able to coordinate recovery. In addition to quickly disseminating information and assistance, communities with an abundance of social capital were able to minimize the migration of people and resources out of the area. With governments increasingly overstretched and natural disasters likely to increase in frequency and intensity, an understanding of what contributes to efficient reconstruction is more important than ever. "Building Resilience" underscores a critical component of an effective response.

COPING WITH ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHOCKS: INSTITUTIONS AND OUTCOMES: Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century†

Abstract: Areas differ in their propensity to experience natural disasters. Exposure to disaster risks can be reduced either through migration (i.e., self-protection) or through public infrastructure investment (e.g., building seawalls). Using migration data from the 1920s and 1930s, this paper studies how the population responded to disaster shocks in an era of minimal public investment. We find that, on net, young men move away from areas hit by tornados but are attracted to areas experiencing floods. Early efforts to protect against future flooding, especially during the New Deal era of the late 1930s, may have counteracted an individual migration response.

Annual disaster statistical review 2011: the numbers and trends

Abstract: In 2011, 332 natural disasters1 were registered, less than the average annual disaster frequency observed from 2001 to 2010 (384). However, the human and economic impacts of the disasters in 2011 were massive. Natural disasters killed a total of 30 773 people and caused 244.7 million victims worldwide (see Figure 1). Economic damages from natural disasters were the highest ever registered, with an estimated US$ 366.1 billion [...]

Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control

Abstract: The long-term impacts of disasters are ‘hidden’ as it becomes increasingly difficult over time to attribute them to a singular event. We use a synthetic control methodology, formalized in Abadie, A. et al. (2010), Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program, Journal of the American Statistical Association105(490): 493–505, to estimate the long-term impacts of a 1992 hurricane on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. Hurricane Iniki, the strongest storm to hit Hawaii in many years, wrought an estimated US$ 7.4 billion (2008) in direct damages. Since the unaffected Hawaiian Islands provide a control group, the case of Iniki is uniquely suited to provide insight into the long-term impact of natural disasters. We show that Kauai's economy has yet to recover, 18 years after this event. We estimate the island's current population to be 12 per cent smaller than it would have been had the hurricane not occurred. Similarly, aggregate personal income and the number of private sector jobs are proportionally lower.

The role of social media as psychological first aid as a support to community resilience building.

Abstract: In this paper we review data collected from an online, social media-administered survey developed to explore public use of social media during a series of natural disasters, predominantly in Australia and New Zealand, during January to March 2011. These data are then explored using examples taken from the experiences of those involved in administering the most widely-used community-driven Facebook page during these disasters, which focused on tropical cyclone Yasi ('Cyclone Yasi Update'). The survey was completed by 1146 respondents who had used social media in relation to the recent natural disasters. Data indicated that the public relied on a mix of formal and informal information sources, often using social media to re-post or re-tweet links from government websites felt to be of use to communities, thus acting as filters and amplifiers of 'official' information. This paper discusses how social media, specifically their core strengths of timely information exchange and promotion of connectedness, were able to act as sources of psychological first aid in the early stages of disaster and assist in supporting aspects of community resilience.

Community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan

Abstract: The development literature on hazards and disasters indicates a visible paradigm shift from hazard assessment to vulnerability analysis and building community resilience. This shift has taken place just after the Kobe Earthquake in 2005, which necessitated the formulation of Hyogo Framework of Actions, the global framework for disaster risk reduction. One of the goals of this framework is to build the resilience of the communities prone to hazards and disasters. The objective of this paper is to analyze and review the frameworks on community resilience in the context of hazards and natural disasters and propose a community resilience framework for an earthquake prone area in Baluchistan, based on the findings of an extensive research carried out on vulnerability and resilience assessment. A household questionnaire survey was conducted among 200 residents of Quetta city, using random sampling method. Based on the findings, the paper has proposed a new community resilience framework, which can be used for upgrading the community preparedness, awareness, and finally leading to community resilience at the local levels.

Emergency Preparedness and Public Health: The Lessons of Hurricane Sandy

Abstract: When Hurricane Sandy hit downtown Manhattan, three neighboring hospitals each made different decisions about when to evacuate. Across the metro region, more than five hospitals and over 20 nursing and assisted living facilities were evacuated, making this the central public health challenge of this calamitous event. It is a familiar story — a super storm comes ashore, infrastructure is overwhelmed, and healthcare facilities evacuate patients, with major delays in returning to normal functioning. Afterwards, policy makers evaluate lessons learned for the next disaster, but similar missteps are often repeated.Although not identical, it is instructive to compare Hurricane Katrina with the still unfolding events of Sandy. Unlike in Katrina, New York hospitals had more detailed emergency plans. What seemed to be missing, however, were clear and consistent criteria to guide evacuation decisions. Evacuation decisions are complex — a decision to evacuate prematurely places patients at risk, while waiting too long can have devastating consequences. Public officials, in collaboration with facilities, should decide whether to shelter in place or risk transfer of fragile patients. Governors should consider early emergency declarations, including request for a formal “public health emergency declaration”, to reduce legal concerns and regulatory constraints. Federal, state, and municipal authorities can better prepare for the next disaster and have a duty to do so.

Disaster News: Framing and Frame Changing in Coverage of Major U.S. Natural Disasters, 2000–2010

Abstract: This research examines mass media depictions of major American natural disasters that occurred between 2000 and 2010. Results indicate that mass media cover natural disasters for shorter periods of time than they do other issues; that media coverage tends to focus on the current impact of disasters on humans, the built environment, and the natural environment; that disaster economics is an important topic; that disaster media coverage generally focuses on the state and region related to the event; and that disaster news is largely about what is happening now.

Monetary valuation of insurance against flood risk under climate change

Abstract: Climate change is projected to increase the risk of natural disasters, such as floods and storms, in certain regions. This is likely to raise the demand for natural disaster insurance. We present a stated preference survey using choice modeling with mixed logit estimation methods in order to examine the effects of climate change and the availability of government compensation on the demand for flood insurance by Dutch homeowners. Currently, no private insurance against flood damage is offered in the Netherlands. The results indicate that there are opportunities for the development of a flood insurance market. © (2012) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making

Abstract: In the aftermath of many natural and man-made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near-miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions (e.g., choosing not to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard). On the other hand, if near misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened, this will counter the basic “near-miss” effect and encourage more mitigation. We illustrate the robustness of this pattern across populations with varying levels of real expertise with hazards and different hazard contexts (household evacuation for a hurricane, Caribbean cruises during hurricane season, and deep-water oil drilling). We conclude with ideas to help people manage and communicate about risk. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.

Mental health effects of hurricane Sandy: characteristics, potential aftermath, and response

Abstract: On October 22, 2012, a late-season tropical system was named Sandy by the US National Hurricane Center. The system meandered for several days in warm Caribbean waters, intensifying slowly, gaining forward momentum, and passing directly over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas. Sandy’s outer rain bands deluged Haiti’s deforested terrain, triggering severe floods and mudslides. Although Sandy was a minimal hurricane, millions were affected across 5 Caribbean nations and Puerto Rico, 100 persons were killed or reported missing, and thousands of homes were damaged. Estimated economic losses ranged from $5 million in Jamaica to $2 billion in Cuba.1 What catapulted this system into a “superstorm” was a rare climate event. At mid-latitudes, Sandy interacted with a polar jet stream that steered the system toward the mid-Atlantic coastline, transforming the system into a hybrid blend of posttropical cyclone and winter storm. The system’s cloud canopy expanded to 1000 miles in diameter as circulating winds funneled ocean waves into the New Jersey shoreline, Long Island Sound, and New York Harbor, inundating portions of Staten Island and southern Manhattan. In the United States, an estimated 60 million people across 24 states experienced a range of storm effects at varying intensities, including wind, rain, flood, coastal surge, and blizzard. The effects of the storm on vulnerable and fragile infrastructure produced power outages for more than 8 million residents; flooded New York City’s subway system and East River tunnels; set off a major fire that destroyed 111 housing units in the Breezy Point section of Queens; disrupted communications; and created acute shortages of gasoline, food, and commodities. Sandy was blamed for 113 US deaths and damaged 200 000 homes. Costs have been estimated at $50 billion, second only to Hurricane Katrina as the nation’s costliest natural disaster.2,3 Over the past 2 decades, considerable research efforts have been focused on populations affected by natural disasters. A rapidly growing body of knowledge is now available to assist in estimating the potential mental health effects of Superstorm Sandy and the differential risks for specific populations and communities. The availability of data from randomized controlled trials on the efficacy of interventions for trauma-exposed populations may enable better planning and implementation of prevention strategies to mitigate the adverse mental health effects of the disaster.

Building resilience to natural hazards in Indonesia: progress and challenges in implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

Abstract: Over the last 50 years, the cost of natural disasters has increased globally and in Indonesia (EM-DAT 2012). We therefore need more systematic efforts in trying to reduce disaster risks. In 2005, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005–2015: ‘Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities’, in order to enable a more systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. In this paper, we examine Indonesia’s success in improving DRR by reviewing the country’s progress in implementing the HFA Priorities for Actions. This includes an analysis of the drivers, challenges and emerging issues in building resilience to natural hazards. The study is undertaken through literature reviews and interviews with 26 representatives of key organisations in DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Indonesia. Our findings indicate that the building disaster resilience in Indonesia has been, to a large extent, driven by the existence of the necessary regulatory policies and frameworks and the participation of various non-government stakeholders. Impediments to process include a lack of capacity and capability for DRR at the local government level, a lack of systematic learning and a lack of commitment from government to mainstream DRR into broader development agendas. Emerging pressing issues that are likely to challenge future resilience building activities include the integration of DRR and CCA and urban risk governance.

Women Confronting Natural Disaster: From Vulnerability to Resilience

Abstract: Natural disasters push ordinary gender disparities to the extreme—leaving women not only to deal with a catastrophe’s aftermath, but also at risk for greater levels of domestic violence, displacement, and other threats to their security and well-being. Elaine Enarson presents a comprehensive assessment, encompassing both theory and practice, of how gender shapes disaster vulnerability and resilience.

Collaborative resilience : moving through crisis to opportunity

Abstract: Crisis -- whether natural disaster, technological failure, economic collapse, or shocking acts of violence -- can offer opportunities for collaboration, consensus building, and transformative social change. Communities often experience a surge of collective energy and purpose in the aftermath of crisis. Rather than rely on government and private-sector efforts to deal with crises through prevention and mitigation, we can harness post-crisis forces for recovery and change through innovative collaborative planning. Drawing on recent work in the fields of planning and natural resource management, this book examines a range of efforts to enhance resilience through collaboration, describing communities that have survived and even thrived by building trust and interdependence. These collaborative efforts include environmental assessment methods in Cozumel, Mexico; the governance of a "climate protected community" in the Blackfoot Valley of Montana; fisheries management in Southeast Asia's Mekong region; and the restoration of natural fire regimes in U.S. forests. In addition to describing the many forms that collaboration can take -- including consensus processes, learning networks, and truth and reconciliation commissions -- the authors argue that collaborative resilience requires redefining the idea of resilience itself. A resilient system is not just discovered through good science; it emerges as a community debates and defines ecological and social features of the system and appropriate scales of activity. Poised between collaborative practice and resilience analysis, collaborative resilience is both a process and an outcome of collective engagement with social-ecological complexity.

[Socio-environmental vulnerability, disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building: lessons from the earthquake in Haiti and torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil].

Abstract: Data on disasters around the world reveal greater seriousness in countries with lower social and economic development levels. In this context, disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building policies are priorities in the sustainable development agenda, featuring among the topics selected for the Rio+20 Summit. By means of a contribution of a conceptual nature and from examples of disasters in countries with different development levels, namely the Haiti earthquake and the torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, the scope of this article is to demonstrate how socio-environmental vulnerability creates conditions for disasters, while at the same time limiting strategies for their prevention and mitigation. Lastly, some of the measures that disaster risk reduction and resilience-building demand in a socio-environmental vulnerability context are highlighted. These involve changes in the current patterns of social, economic and environmental development geared toward ecological sustainability and social justice as pillars of sustainable development.

The Disaster at Japan's Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant after the March 11, 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami, and the Resulting Spread of Radioisotope Contamination

Abstract: On March 11, 2011 eastern Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and an enormous tsunami, over 13 m in height, which together killed over 20,500 people and resulted in the evacuation of over 320,000 people from the devastated areas. This paper describes the damage sustained by the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant during this unpredicted major natural disaster and the events that happened in the months after this accident. The events occurring at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant, the actions taken to minimize the effects of the damage to the plant and to protect the public, and the points at which the responses proved to be inadequate all offer lessons that will be of value to those planning for and responding to future natural disasters and accidents in Japan and around the world.

An Emergency Medical Communications System by Low Altitude Platform at the Early Stages of a Natural Disaster in Indonesia

Abstract: A natural disaster is a consequence of a natural hazard, such as a tsunami, earthquake or volcanic eruption, affecting humans. In order to support emergency medical communication services in natural disaster areas where the telecommunications facility has been seriously damaged, an ad hoc communication network backbone should be build to support emergency medical services. Combinations of requirements need to be considered before deciding on the best option. In the present study we have proposed a Low Altitude Platform consisting of tethered balloons combined with Wireless Fidelity (WiFi) 802.11 technology. To confirm that the suggested network would satisfy the emergency medical service requirements, a communications experiment, including performance service measurement, was carried out.

Review of Methods to Assess, Design for, and Mitigate Multiple Hazards

Abstract: Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons), coastal inundation, and flooding; although, many regions are also susceptible to artificial hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus, grave danger is posed to the community and economic and societal activities are disrupted. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States, in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches, which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This paper provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Natural Disasters: Mitigating Impact, Managing Risks

Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF's role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance provided by the Fund to help governments put together a policy response or build a macro framework to lay the foundation for recovery and/or unlock other external financing. The literature and experience suggests there are ways to strengthen policy frameworks to increase resilience to natural disaster shocks, including identifying the risks and probability of natural disasters and integrating them more explicitly into macro frame-works, increasing flexibility within fiscal frameworks, and improving coordination amongst international partners ex post and ex ante.

An Analysis of Geospatial Technologies for Risk and Natural Disaster Management

Abstract: This paper discusses the use of spatial data for risk and natural disaster management. The importance of remote-sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data is stressed by comparing studies of the use of these technologies for natural disaster management. Spatial data sharing is discussed in the context of the establishment of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) for natural disasters. Some examples of SDI application in disaster management are analyzed, and the need for participation from organizations and governments to facilitate the exchange of information and to improve preventive and emergency plans is reinforced. Additionally, the potential involvement of citizens in the risk and disaster management process by providing voluntary data collected from volunteered geographic information (VGI) applications is explored. A model relating all of the spatial data-sharing aspects discussed in the article was suggested to elucidate the importance of the issues raised.

Assessing Disaster Preparedness among Latino Migrant and Seasonal Farmworkers in Eastern North Carolina

Abstract: Natural disasters including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and fires often involve substantial physical and mental impacts on affected populations and thus are public health priorities. Limited research shows that vulnerable populations such as the low-income, socially isolated migrant and seasonal farmworkers (MSFW) are particularly susceptible to the effects of natural disasters. This research project assessed the awareness, perceived risk, and practices regarding disaster preparedness and response resources and identified barriers to utilization of community and government services during or after a natural disaster among Latino MSFWs’ and their families. Qualitative (N = 21) focus groups (3) and quantitative (N = 57) survey methodology was implemented with Latino MSFWs temporarily residing in rural eastern North Carolina to assess perceived and actual risk for natural disasters. Hurricanes were a top concern among the sample population, many participants shared they lacked proper resources for an emergency (no emergency kit in the house, no evacuation plan, no home internet, a lack of knowledge of what should be included in an emergency kit, etc.). Transportation and language were found to be additional barriers. Emergency broadcasts in Spanish and text message alerts were identified by the population to be helpful for disaster alerts. FEMA, American Red Cross, local schools and the migrant clinic were trusted places for assistance and information. In summary, tailored materials, emergency alerts, text messages, and news coverage concerning disaster threats should be provided in the population’s native language and when feasible delivered in a culturally appropriate mechanism such as “charlas” (talks) and brochures.

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation1

Abstract: Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three dimensions of climate change education—understanding and attentiveness, mitigation and adaptation— are identified and explored as corresponding to key elements in disaster risk reduction education. While international bodies advocate the alignment of the two focuses, we are still only on the threshold of their alignment in practice within curriculum. Both focuses also align in their embrace of an interactive, experiential and participatory pedagogy. An educational contribution to a sustainable future must necessarily address disaster risk reduction and climate change.

Climate disaster resilience of the education sector in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam

Abstract: Recognizing the importance of building disaster resilience for education sector, this study aims to develop a methodology to measure the level of educational resilience to cope with natural disasters and is then applied in Central Vietnam. The assessment tool in this paper is developed through a combination of climate disaster resilience indexes and the 16 tasks of Hyogo framework for action designed for education sector. It looks at five dimensions namely physical conditions, human resources, institutional issues, external relationships, and natural conditions, with each dimension characterized by three parameters and five variables. Findings from this study provide important insights into enhancing resilience of the education system in Thua Thien Hue at the provincial, local, and school levels. By giving the overall resilience situation, it can help policy-makers and practitioners in developing an effective plan to increase the level of educational resilience. In addition, it provides the School Management Board with a means to assess the school’s resilience level and set out priorities that need to be focused on with regard to the improvement of school safety and disaster risk reduction education.

The Development of Metrics For Community Resilience to Natural Disasters

Abstract: How communities recover following a disaster is often conceptualized in terms of their disaster resilience. While numerous research efforts have sought to explain the causal structure of disaster resilience, the ability to measure the concept is increasingly being seen as a key step towards disaster risk reduction. The development of standards and metrics that are succinct, quantifiable, and meaningful for measuring resilience remain a challenge, however. This is partially because there are few explicit sets of procedures within the existing literature that suggest how resilience should be quantified or how to compare communities with one another in terms of their resilience. The primary purpose of this dissertation is to advance the understanding of the multidimensional nature of disaster resilience and to provide a robust variable set and procedure for measuring resilience at sub-county levels of geography. The following broad research questions are addressed: a) What set of indicators provide the best comparative assessment of disaster resilience among communities? b) To what extent do these indicators predict a known and measureable outcome, such as disaster recovery? To accomplish this end, this dissertation is concerned with the development of a common set of metrics covering environmental, social, economic, institutional, infrastructural, and community-based dimensions. An indicator set for measuring resilience is proposed and refined using a set of methods that address validity, simplicity, reproducibility, and uncertainty. The validity of the indicators is addressed via real-world application using Hurricane Katrina and the recovery of the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a case study. The results indicate that the widespread impacts and a differential recovery from Hurricane Katrina were not random, but manifested in everyday patterns of social interaction and organization. The event's differential recovery resulted from a set of interacting conditions, some the result of geography and location, some the result of the economic vitality of communities, some with the dwelling, and some having to do with the social capacities and demographic attributes of the people living there.

Bridging the gaps: the role of local government capability and the management of a natural disaster in Bantul, Indonesia

Abstract: This paper examines local government capability in managing pre-, during and post-natural disaster in Indonesia. The case study is the Bantul local government which had experience in managing the 2006 earthquake. Bantul is located in the most densely populated area of Java, where 1,500 people per square km square, and the earthquake destroyed domestic industries that had become the main resource of the Bantul local government. The capability of local government and the requirement to manage a disaster are very important issues for exploring the important role of local government in mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery disaster management activities, particularly in regard to the characteristics of local government in developing countries. In this paper, capability of local government in managing a disaster is defined as a function of institutions, human resources, policy for effective implementation, financial, technical resources and leadership. The capability requirement of each stage of disaster management has also been explained from the point of view of state and non-state actors and institutions. Finally, the paper integrates the capability requirement and reality in order to bridge these gaps.

Natural disaster management mechanisms for probabilistic earthquake loss

Abstract: High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy. Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems, disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public) and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.

The Economic Impacts of the Loma Prieta Earthquake: A Focus on Small Business

Abstract: This paper identifies the impacts of the Lorna Prieta earthquake on the economy of the San Francisco Bay Area as a whole and specifically for small businesses. Findings are based on an analysis of published agrg egate economic data and a survey of small businesses in two cities. The paper finds that the economy showed a great deal of resistence, and concludes by outlining three lessons for future disaster planning in all areas prone to natural disasters.