Showing papers on "Occupancy published in 2016"

The influence of e-word-of-mouth on hotel occupancy rate

Abstract: Purpose Online consumer reviews have become increasingly important for consumer decision-making. One of the most prominent examples is the hotel industry where consumer reviews on websites, such as Bookings.com, TripAdvisor and Venere.com, play a critical role in consumers’ choice of a hotel. There have been a number of recent studies analyzing various aspects of online reviews. The purpose of this paper is to investigate their effects in terms of hotel occupancy rates. Design/methodology/approach This paper measures through regression analysis the impact of three dimensions of consumer reviews (i.e. review score, review variance and review volume) on the occupancy rates of 346 hotels located in Rome, isolating a number of other factors that might also affect demand. Findings Review score is the dimension with the highest impact. The results suggest that after controlling for other variables, a one-point increase in the review score is associated to an increase in the occupancy rate by 7.5 percentage points. Regardless the review score, the number of reviews has a positive effect, but with decreasing returns, implying that the higher the number of reviews, the lower the beneficial effect in terms of occupancy rates is. Practical implications The findings quantify the strong association of online reviews to occupancy rates suggesting the use of appropriate reputational management systems to increase hotel occupancy and therefore performance. Originality/value A major contribution of this paper is its comprehensiveness in analyzing the relation between online consumer reviews and occupancy across a heterogeneous sample of hotels.

Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

Abstract: Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify conservation strategies that can avert biodiversity collapse.

A multispecies occupancy model for two or more interacting species

Abstract: Summary Species occurrence is influenced by environmental conditions and the presence of other species. Current approaches for multispecies occupancy modelling are practically limited to two interacting species and often require the assumption of asymmetric interactions. We propose a multispecies occupancy model that can accommodate two or more interacting species. We generalize the single-species occupancy model to two or more interacting species by assuming the latent occupancy state is a multivariate Bernoulli random variable. We propose modelling the probability of each potential latent occupancy state with both a multinomial logit and a multinomial probit model and present details of a Gibbs sampler for the latter. As an example, we model co-occurrence probabilities of bobcat (Lynx rufus), coyote (Canis latrans), grey fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) as a function of human disturbance variables throughout 6 Mid-Atlantic states in the eastern United States. We found evidence for pairwise interactions among most species, and the probability of some pairs of species occupying the same site varied along environmental gradients; for example, occupancy probabilities of coyote and grey fox were independent at sites with little human disturbance, but these two species were more likely to occur together at sites with high human disturbance. Ecological communities are composed of multiple interacting species. Our proposed method improves our ability to draw inference from such communities by permitting modelling of detection/non-detection data from an arbitrary number of species, without assuming asymmetric interactions. Additionally, our proposed method permits modelling the probability two or more species occur together as a function of environmental variables. These advancements represent an important improvement in our ability to draw community-level inference from multiple interacting species that are subject to imperfect detection.

Improving distribution data of threatened species by combining acoustic monitoring and occupancy modelling

Abstract: Summary Conservation of threatened species relies on predictions about their spatial distribution; however, it is often difficult to detect species in the wild. The combination of acoustic monitoring to improve species detectability and statistical methods to account for false-negative detections can improve species distribution estimates. Here, we combine a novel automated species-specific identification approach with occupancy models that account for imperfect detectability to provide a more accurate species distribution map of the Elfin Woods Warbler Setophaga angelae, a rare, elusive and threatened bird species. We also compared three automated species identification/validation approaches to determine which approach provided occupancy estimates similar to manual validation of all recordings. Acoustic data were collected along three elevational gradients (95–1074 m a.s.l) in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico. The detection matrices acquired through automated species-specific identification models and manual validations of all recordings were used to create occupancy models. Although this species has a wider distribution than previously reported, it depends on Palo Colorado forest cover and it mainly occurs between 600 and 900 m a.s.l. Unbiased and precise occupancy models were developed by using automated species identification models and only manually validating 4% of the recordings. Our approach draws on the strength of two active areas of ecological research: acoustic monitoring and occupancy modelling. Our methods provide an effective and efficient way to translate the enormous amount of acoustic information collected with passive acoustic monitoring devices into meaningful ecological data that can be applied to understand and map the distribution of rare, elusive and threatened species.

Using camera trapping and hierarchical occupancy modelling to evaluate the spatial ecology of an African mammal community

Abstract: Summary Emerging conservation paradigms have shifted from single to multi-species approaches focused on sustaining biodiversity. Multi-species hierarchical occupancy modelling provides a method for assessing biodiversity while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. We analysed camera trapping data with multi-species models using a Bayesian approach to estimate the distributions of a terrestrial mammal community in northern Botswana and evaluate community, group, and species-specific responses to human disturbance and environmental variables. Groupings were based on two life-history traits: body size (small, medium, large and extra-large) and diet (carnivore, omnivore and herbivore). We photographed 44 species of mammals over 6607 trap nights. Camera station-specific estimates of species richness ranged from 8 to 27 unique species, and species had a mean occurrence probability of 0·32 (95% credible interval = 0·21–0·45). At the community level, our model revealed species richness was generally greatest in floodplains and grasslands and with increasing distances into protected wildlife areas. Variation among species’ responses was explained in part by our species groupings. The positive influence of protected areas was strongest for extra-large species and herbivores, while medium-sized species actually increased in the non-protected areas. The positive effect of grassland/floodplain cover, alternatively, was strongest for large species and carnivores and weakest for small species and herbivores, suggesting herbivore diversity is promoted by habitat heterogeneity. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight the importance of protected areas and grasslands in maintaining biodiversity in southern Africa. We demonstrate the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models for assessing community, group and individual species’ responses to anthropogenic and environmental variables. This framework can be used to map areas of high conservation value and predict impacts of land-use change. Our approach is particularly applicable to the growing number of camera trap studies world-wide, and we suggest broader application globally will likely result in reduced costs, improved efficiency and increased knowledge of wildlife communities.

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire.

Abstract: An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity. We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year dataset of bird surveys at 1106 points sampled across 97 fires in montane California. Our results provide strong support for a positive relationship between pyrodiversity and bird diversity. This relationship interacts with time since fire, with pyrodiversity having a greater effect on biodiversity at 10 years post-fire than at 1 year post-fire. Immediately after fires, patches of differing burn severities hold similar bird communities, but over the ensuing decade, bird assemblages within patches of contrasting severities differentiate. When evaluated at the scale of individual fires, fires with a greater heterogeneity of burn severities hold substantially more species. High spatial heterogeneity in severity, sometimes called ‘mixed-severity fire', is a natural part of wildfire regimes in western North America, but may be jeopardized by climate change and a legacy of fire suppression. Forest management that encourages mixed-severity fire may be critical for sustaining biodiversity across fire-prone landscapes.

Occupancy Inference Using Pyroelectric Infrared Sensors Through Hidden Markov Models

Abstract: Occupancy awareness is important for appliance control, ubiquitous computing, and analytics for enterprize real estate. In this paper, a low-cost, battery-powered, wireless occupancy detector equipped with pyroelectric infrared sensor and wireless communication is presented with the aim of providing real-time and on-going occupancy estimation. The methodology adopted to detect occupancy status is based on the hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are trained to statistically estimate the occupancy of a space through an expectation–maximization learning process. The advantage of this system is that the online algorithm reduces annoyance to the users by making it less likely to falsely switch OFF the appliances, and the offline algorithms improve the estimation of the total occupancy time. Simulation and experimental results were obtained to verify the proposed methods along with the limitations of the system.

The spatial distribution of African savannah herbivores: species associations and habitat occupancy in a landscape context.

Abstract: Herbivores play an important role in determining the structure and function of tropical savannahs. Here, we (i) outline a framework for how interactions among large mammalian herbivores, carnivores and environmental variation influence herbivore habitat occupancy in tropical savannahs. We then (ii) use a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse camera trap data to quantify spatial patterns of habitat occupancy for lions and eight common ungulates of varying body size across an approximately 1100 km(2) landscape in the Serengeti ecosystem. Our results reveal strong positive associations among herbivores at the scale of the entire landscape. Lions were positively associated with migratory ungulates but negatively associated with residents. Herbivore habitat occupancy differed with body size and migratory strategy: large-bodied migrants, at less risk of predation and able to tolerate lower quality food, were associated with high NDVI, while smaller residents, constrained to higher quality forage, avoided these areas. Small herbivores were strongly associated with fires, likely due to the subsequent high-quality regrowth, while larger herbivores avoided burned areas. Body mass was strongly related to herbivore habitat use, with larger species more strongly associated with riverine and woodlands than smaller species. Large-bodied migrants displayed diffuse habitat occupancy, whereas smaller species demonstrated fine-scale occupancy reflecting use of smaller patches of high-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the emergence of strong positive spatial associations among a diverse group of savannah herbivores, while highlighting species-specific habitat selection strongly determined by herbivore body size.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

Dynamic occupancy models for explicit colonization processes

Abstract: The dynamic, multi-season occupancy model framework has become a popular tool for modeling open populations with occupancies that change over time through local colonizations and extinctions. However, few versions of the model relate these probabilities to the occupancies of neighboring sites or patches. We present a modeling framework that incorporates this information and is capable of describing a wide variety of spatiotemporal colonization and extinction processes. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a simple set of small-scale rules describing how the process evolves. The result is a dynamic process that can account for complicated large-scale features. In our model, a site is more likely to be colonized if more of its neighbors were previously occupied and if it provides more appealing environmental characteristics than its neighboring sites. Additionally, a site without occupied neighbors may also become colonized through the inclusion of a long-distance dispersal process. Although similar model specifications have been developed for epidemiological applications, ours formally accounts for detectability using the well-known occupancy modeling framework. After demonstrating the viability and potential of this new form of dynamic occupancy model in a simulation study, we use it to obtain inference for the ongoing Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) invasion in South Africa. Our results suggest that the Common Myna continues to enlarge its distribution and its spread via short distance movement, rather than long-distance dispersal. Overall, this new modeling framework provides a powerful tool for managers examining the drivers of colonization including short- vs. long-distance dispersal, habitat quality, and distance from source populations.

Bluetooth Low Energy Based Occupancy Detection for Emergency Management

Abstract: A reliable estimation of an area's occupancy can be beneficial to a large variety of applications, and especially in relation to emergency management. For example, it can help detect areas of priority and assign emergency personnel in an efficient manner. However, occupancy detection can be a major challenge in indoor environments. A recent technology that can prove very useful in that respect is Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), which is able to provide the location of a user using information from beacons installed in a building. Here, we evaluate BLE as the primary means of occupancy estimation in an indoor environment, using a prototype system composed of BLE beacons, a mobile application and a server. We employ three machine learning approaches (k-nearest neighbours, logistic regression and support vector machines) to determine the presence of occupants inside specific areas of an office space and we evaluate our approach in two independent experimental settings. Our experimental results indicate that combining BLE with machine learning is certainly promising as the basis for occupancy estimation

Non-Intrusive Techniques for Establishing Occupancy Related Energy Savings in Commercial Buildings

Abstract: The design of energy-efficient commercial building Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems has been in the forefront of energy conservation efforts over the past few decades. The HVAC systems traditionally run on a static schedule that does not take occupancy into account, wasting a lot of energy in conditioning empty or partially-occupied spaces. This paper investigates the application of non-intrusive techniques to obtain a rough estimate of occupancy from coarse-grained measurements of the sensors that are commonly available through the building management system. Various per-zone schedules can be developed based on this approximate knowledge of occupancy at the level of individual zones. Our experiments in three large commercial buildings confirm that the proposed techniques can uncover the occupancy pattern of the zones, and schedules that incorporate these occupancy patterns can achieve more than 38% reduction in reheat energy consumption while maintaining indoor thermal comfort.

Microclimate predicts within‐season distribution dynamics of montane forest birds

Abstract: Aim Climate changes are anticipated to have pervasive negative effects on biodiversity and are expected to necessitate widespread range shifts or contractions. Such projections are based upon the assumptions that (1) species respond primarily to broad-scale climatic regimes, or (2) that variation in climate at fine spatial scales is less relevant at coarse spatial scales. However, in montane forest landscapes, high degrees of microclimate variability could influence occupancy dynamics and distributions of forest species. Using high-resolution bird survey and under-canopy air temperature data, we tested the hypothesis that the high vagility of most forest bird species combined with the heterogeneous thermal regime of mountain landscapes would enable them to adjust initial settlement decisions to track their thermal niches. Location Western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA. Methods We used dynamic occupancy models to test the degree to which microclimate affects the distribution patterns of forest birds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. In all models we statistically accounted for vegetation structure, vegetation composition and potential biases due to imperfect detection of birds. We generated spatial predictions of forest bird distributions in relation to microclimate and vegetation structure. Results Fine-scale temperature metrics were strong predictors of bird distributions; effects of temperature on within-season occupancy dynamics were as large or larger (1–1.7 times) than vegetation effects. Most species (86.7%) exhibited apparent within-season occupancy dynamics. However, species were almost as likely to be warm associated (i.e., apparent settlement at warmer sites and/or vacancy at cooler sites; 53.3% of species) as cool associated (i.e., apparent settlement at cooler sites and/or vacancy at warmer sites; 46.7% of species), suggesting that microclimate preferences are species specific. Main conclusions High-resolution temperature data increase the quality of predictions about avian distribution dynamics and should be included in efforts to project future distributions. We hypothesize that microclimate-associated distribution patterns may reflect species' potential for behavioural buffering from climate change in montane forest environments.

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

Abstract: Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.

Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

Abstract: Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low ( 0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary constraints do not allow for capture–recapture studies to directly estimate density. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.