Precipitation

About: Precipitation is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 32861 publications have been published within this topic receiving 990496 citations. The topic is also known as: rain & rainfall.

Climate change and soil freezing dynamics: historical trends and projected changes

Abstract: Changes to soil freezing dynamics with climate change can modify ecosystem carbon and nutrient losses. Soil freezing is influenced strongly by both air temperature and insulation by the snowpack, and it has been hypothesized that winter climate warming may lead to increased soil freezing as a result of reduced snowpack thickness. I used weather station data to explore the relationships between winter air temperature, precipitation and soil freezing for 31 sites in Canada, ranging from the temperate zone to the high Arctic. Inter-annual climate variation and associated soil temperature variation over the last 40 years were examined and used to interpolate the effects of projected climate change on soil freezing dynamics within sites using linear regression models. Annual soil freezing days declined with increasing mean winter air temperature despite decreases in snow depth and cover, and reduced precipitation only increased annual soil freezing days in the warmest sites. Annual soil freeze–thaw cycles increased in both warm and dry winters, although the effects of precipitation were strongest in sites that experience low mean winter precipitation. Overall, it was projected that by 2050, changes in winter temperature will have a much stronger effect on annual soil freezing days and freeze–thaw cycles than changes in total precipitation, with sites close to but below freezing experiencing the largest changes in soil freezing days. These results reveal that experimental data relevant to the effects of climate changes on soil freezing dynamics and changes in associated soil physical and biological processes are lacking.

Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season

Abstract: The South Asian summer monsoon has an impact on over one billion people. This study applies statistical techniques to precipitation observations (over the period 1951–2011) and finds significant increases in daily precipitation variability, the frequency of dry spells and the intensity of wet spells, whereas dry spell intensity decreases. The South Asian summer monsoon directly affects the lives of more than 1/6th of the world’s population. There is substantial variability within the monsoon season, including fluctuations between periods of heavy rainfall (wet spells) and low rainfall (dry spells)1. These fluctuations can cause extreme wet and dry regional conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure and human systems2,3. Through a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations (1951–2011), we show that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability. Further, we find statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of wet spells, and statistically significant decreases in the intensity of dry spells. These changes in extreme wet and dry spell characteristics are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere. The observed changes in wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance for water resources, agriculture, disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

Abstract: A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Water isotope module of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model: A study on timescales from days to several years

Abstract: Results are presented of a global simulation of the stable water isotopes H218O and HD16O as implemented in the hydrological cycle of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model. The ECHAM model was run under present-day climate conditions at two spatial resolutions (T42,T21), and the simulation results are compared with observations. The high-resolution model (T42) more realistically reproduced the observations, thus demonstrating that an improved representation of advection and orography is critical when modeling the global isotopic water cycle. The deuterium excess (d=δD−8*δ18O) in precipitation offers additional information on climate conditions (e.g., relative humidity and temperature) which prevailed at evaporative sites. Globally, the simulated deuterium excess agrees fairly well with observations showing maxima in the interior of Asia and minima in cold marine regions. However, over Greenland the model failed to show the observed seasonality of the excess and its phase relation to δD reflecting either unrealistic source areas modeled for Greenland precipitation or inadequate description of kinetics in the isotope module. When the coarse resolution model (T21) is forced with observed sea surface temperatures from the period 1979 to 1988, it reproduced the observed weak positive correlation between the isotopic signal and the temperature as well as the weak negative anticorrelation between the isotopic signal and the precipitation. This model simulation further demonstrates that the strongest interannual climate anomaly, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, imprints a strong signal on the water isotopes. In the central Pacific the anticorrelation between the anomalous precipitation and the isotope signal reaches a maximum value of−0.8.

Modelling the response of glaciers to climate warming

Abstract: Dynamic ice-flow models for 12 glaciers and ice caps have been forced with various climate change scenarios The volume of this sample spans three orders of magnitude Six climate scenarios were considered: from 1990 onwards linear warming rates of 001, 002 and 004 K a-1, with and without concurrent changes in precipitation The models, calibrated against the historic record of glacier length where possible, were integrated until 2100 The differences in individual glacier responses are very large No straightforward relationship between glacier size and fractional change of ice volume emerges for any given climate scenario The hypsometry of individual glaciers and ice caps plays an important role in their response, thus making it difficult to generalize results For a warming rate of 004 K a-1, without increase in precipitation, results indicate that few glaciers would survive until 2100 On the other hand, if the warming rate were to be limited to 001 K a-1 with an increase in precipitation of 10% per degree warming, we predict that overall loss would be restricted to 10 to 20% of the 1990 volume