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Predictability

About: Predictability is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 7228 publications have been published within this topic receiving 211914 citations.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
19 Feb 2010-Science
TL;DR: Analysis of the trajectories of people carrying cell phones reveals that human mobility patterns are highly predictable, and a remarkable lack of variability in predictability is found, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.
Abstract: A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.

3,040 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented, and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.
Abstract: The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

2,632 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2011 as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) was made operational at NCEP in March 2011. This version has upgrades to nearly all aspects of the data assimilation and forecast model components of the system. A coupled reanalysis was made over a 32-yr period (1979–2010), which provided the initial conditions to carry out a comprehensive reforecast over 29 years (1982–2010). This was done to obtain consistent and stable calibrations, as well as skill estimates for the operational subseasonal and seasonal predictions at NCEP with CFSv2. The operational implementation of the full system ensures a continuity of the climate record and provides a valuable up-to-date dataset to study many aspects of predictability on the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Evaluation of the reforecasts show that the CFSv2 increases the length of skillful MJO forecasts from 6 to 17 days (dramatically improving subseasonal forecasts), nearly doubles the skill of seasonal forecasts of 2-m temperatures over the ...

2,520 citations

Book
01 Nov 2002
TL;DR: A comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability.
Abstract: This comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability. It incorporates all aspects of environmental computer modeling including an historical overview of the subject, equations of motion and their approximations, a modern and clear description of numerical methods, and the determination of initial conditions using weather observations (an important science known as data assimilation). Finally, this book provides a clear discussion of the problems of predictability and chaos in dynamical systems and how they can be applied to atmospheric and oceanic systems. Professors and students in meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography, hydrology and environmental science will find much to interest them in this book, which can also form the basis of one or more graduate-level courses.

2,240 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article provided an analysis of the predictable components of monthly common stock and bond portfolio returns and found that most of the predictability is associated with sensitivity to economic variables in the United States.
Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the predictable components of monthly common stock and bond portfolio returns. Most of the predictability is associated with sensitivity to economic variables in ...

1,817 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20241
20231,138
20222,114
2021478
2020407
2019441