Showing papers on "Purchasing power published in 2013"

World Energy Outlook 2013

Abstract: A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, along with an update on developments in subsidies to fossil fuels and renewable energy. This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues: -Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June. -Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets. -Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector. -The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power. -The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts. -Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September. The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.

The Golden Dilemma

Abstract: While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. We also explore valuation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average consistent with mean reversion. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today's elevated levels. In the end, investors face a golden dilemma: 1) embrace a view that 'those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it' and the purchasing power of gold is likely to revert to its mean or 2) embrace a view that the emergence of new markets represent a structural change and 'this time is different'.

Promoting universal financial protection: how the Thai universal coverage scheme was designed to ensure equity

Abstract: Empirical evidence demonstrates that the Thai Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) has improved equity of health financing and provided a relatively high level of financial risk protection. Several UCS design features contribute to these outcomes: a tax-financed scheme, a comprehensive benefit package and gradual extension of coverage to illnesses that can lead to catastrophic household costs, and capacity of the National Health Security Office (NHSO) to mobilise adequate resources. This study assesses the policy processes related to making decisions on these features. The study employs qualitative methods including reviews of relevant documents, in-depth interviews of 25 key informants, and triangulation amongst information sources. Continued political and financial commitments to the UCS, despite political rivalry, played a key role. The Thai Rak Thai (TRT)-led coalition government introduced UCS; staying in power 8 of the 11 years between 2001 and 2011 was long enough to nurture and strengthen the UCS and overcome resistance from various opponents. Prime Minister Surayud’s government, replacing the ousted TRT government, introduced universal renal replacement therapy, which deepened financial risk protection. Commitment to their manifesto and fiscal capacity pushed the TRT to adopt a general tax-financed universal scheme; collecting premiums from people engaged in the informal sector was neither politically palatable nor technically feasible. The relatively stable tenure of NHSO Secretary Generals and the chairs of the Financing and the Benefit Package subcommittees provided a platform for continued deepening of financial risk protection. NHSO exerted monopsonistic purchasing power to control prices, resulting in greater patient access and better systems efficiency than might have been the case with a different design. The approach of proposing an annual per capita budget changed the conventional line-item programme budgeting system by basing negotiations between the Bureau of Budget, the NHSO and other stakeholders on evidence of service utilization and unit costs. Future success of Thai UCS requires coverage of effective interventions that address primary and secondary prevention of non-communicable diseases and long-term care policies in view of epidemiologic and demographic transitions. Lessons for other countries include the importance of continued political support, evidence informed decisions, and a capable purchaser organization.

How to avoid middle income traps ? evidence from Malaysia

Abstract: Malaysia's structural transformation from low to middle income is a success story, making it one of the most prominent manufacturing exporters' in the world. However, like many other middle income economies, it is squeezed by the competition from low-wage economies on the one hand, and more innovative advanced economies on the other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy? This paper emphasizes the need for broad structural transformation; that is, moving to higher productivity production in both goods and services. This paper examines productivity growth for Malaysia at the sectoral level, and constructs several measures of the sophistication of goods and services trade, and puts these comparisons in a global context. The results indicate that Malaysia has further opportunities for growth in the services sector in particular. Modernizing the services sector may provide a way out of the middle income trap, and serve as a source of growth for Malaysia into the future.

Price Fairness in the Case of Green Products: Enterprises' Policies and Consumers' Perceptions

Abstract: This study investigates the extent to which prices of ecological products are fair. In particular, it explores the gap that can exist between the pricing policies adopted by enterprises and the consumers' price expectations in terms of fairness. The existing academic literature on sustainable consumption neglects this question. Findings from a qualitative investigation combining a consumer study and enterprise case studies show that managers' behaviors vary. While some enterprises take into account consumers' expectations and purchasing power to propose a fair price based on the value of the green product, others continue to adopt a pricing policy that is exclusively based on profitability and competition. The authors draw some business and academic implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

The Impact of India’s Rural Employment Guarantee on Demand for Agricultural Technology

Abstract: The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) is approaching eight years of implementation. Since 2006, it has offered up to 100 days per year of guaranteed public works employment to tens of millions of rural Indian households. It is intended to augment the purchasing power of the rural poor during droughts and slack agricultural production periods. Given its scale, it has the potential to generate additional ripples throughout the rural economy. Recent working papers have explored NREGA’s effect of higher agricultural wages. This paper investigates whether this increase in the opportunity cost of agricultural labor incentivizes farm owners to adopt labor-saving agricultural technology. Using a regression discontinuity design and new Indian agricultural census data, this paper finds that NREGA causes a shift of roughly 20 percentage points away from labor-intensive technologies toward labor-saving ones, particularly for small farmers and low-powered technologies. This short-run result can lead to a variety of long-run outcomes in technology use, labor markets, and food security. A focus on education, skill development, and quality infrastructure alongside NREGA would augment the chances that the most positive long-run scenario occurs.

Financial Crises and the Politics of Macroeconomic Adjustments

Abstract: 1. Introduction 2. The distribution of vulnerabilities: purchasing power, balance sheets, and exchange-rate policy preferences 3. Voters' direct vulnerability to adjustment. European voters in the 2008/9 global economic and financial crisis 4. Indirect vulnerability to adjustment. The determinants of employers' monetary and exchange rate policy preferences 5. Interests, elections, and policy makers' incentives to adjust 6. The politics of adjustment in the Asian financial crisis, 1997/8 7. Adjustment in Eastern Europe during the first phase of the global financial and economic crisis, 2008-10 8. Conclusions.

Labor market for health workers in Africa : new look at the crisis

Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa has only 12 percent of the global population, yet this region accounts for 50 percent of child deaths, more than 60 percent of maternal deaths, 85 percent of malaria cases, and close to 67 percent of people living with HIV. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has the lowest number of health workers in the world-significantly fewer than in South Asia, which is at a comparable level of economic development. The Labor Market for Health Workers in Africa uses the analytical tools of labor markets to examine the human resource crisis in health from an economic perspective. Africa's labor markets are complex, with resources coming from governments, donors, the private sector, and households. Low numbers of health workers and poor understanding of labor market dynamics are major impediments to improving health service delivery. Yet some countries in the region have developed innovative solutions with new approaches to creating a robust health workforce that can respond to the continent's health challenges. As Africa grows economically, the invaluable lessons in this book can help build tomorrow's African health systems.

The Golden Dilemma

Abstract: Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity Gold has been described as an inflation hedge, a “golden constant”, with a long run real return of zero Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment horizons the variation in the nominal and real returns of gold has not been driven by realized inflation The real price of gold is currently high compared to history In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average Given this situation is it time to explore “this time is different” rationalizations? We show that new mined supply is surprisingly unresponsive to prices In addition, authoritative estimates suggest that about three quarters of the achievable world supply of gold has already been mined On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today’s elevated levels As a result investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) embrace a view that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”, there is a “golden constant” and the purchasing power of gold is likely to fall or 2) embrace a view that “this time is different” and the “golden constant” is dead Related research: Erb and Harvey (2015), The Golden ConstantErb and Harvey (2012a), An Impressionistic View of the 'Real' Price of Gold Around the World

Gesetzlicher Mindestlohn: Kein verteilungspolitisches Allheilmittel

Abstract: All parties represented in the Bundestag now support minimum-wage regulations, yet their positions on its structure and amount differ significantly. The present study shows that a general statutory minimum wage would mainly have to increase the wages of workers in marginal employment, women, persons with no vocational training, workers employed in fields other than those in which they were trained, and workers in eastern Germany. Very small businesses and consumer service providers would be impacted most of all, but those sectors of the economy directly exposed to international competition hardly at all. According to the results of economic research, a minimum wage would not generally lead to job losses. However, there are indications that the effects depend strongly on the amount of the minimum wage. A minimum wage could reduce the wage differential and would be more in line with what a large majority of the German population currently considers fair. However, it would not even out inequalities in the disposable incomes of private households or significantly reduce poverty. Nor could the number of workers receiving Hartz IV benefits (means tested minimum income support), i. e., income supplements, be expected to fall significantly. A powerful boost in overall purchasing power would not be expected, either. Introducing a general minimum wage in Germany would be a field experiment to be approached with caution. From a scientific point of view, the level should not be too high at first, and the impact of the minimum wage should be observed closely. If it proves not to have negative effects on employment, the general minimum wage should be increased rapidly. When it is introduced, care should be taken that regulation is not circumvented - for example through unpaid additional work or increasing the number of people in employed in mini-jobs or through contract work.

Financing Japan's World War II Occupation of Southeast Asia

Abstract: This paper analyzes how Japan financed its World War II occupation of Southeast Asia, the transfer of resources to Japan, and the monetary and inflation consequences of Japanese policies. In Malaya, Burma, Indonesia and the Philippines, the issue of military scrip to pay for resources and occupying armies greatly increased money supply. Despite high inflation, hyperinflation hardly occurred because of a sustained transactions demand for money, because of Japan's strong enforcement of monetary monopoly, and because of declining Japanese military capability to ship resources home. In Thailand and Indochina, occupation costs and bilateral clearing arrangements created near open-ended Japanese purchasing power and allowed the transfer to Japan of as much as a third of Indochina's annual GDP. Although the Thai and Indochinese governments financed Japanese demands mainly by printing large quantities of money, inflation rose only in line with monetary expansion due to money's continued use as a store of value in rice-surplus areas.

American incomes before and after the revolution

Abstract: Building social tables in the tradition of Gregory King, we develop new estimates suggesting that between 1774 and 1800 American incomes fell in real per capita terms. The colonial South was richer than the North at the start, but was already beginning to lose its income lead by 1800. We also find that free American colonists had much more equal incomes than did households in England and Wales. The colonists had greater purchasing power than their English counterparts over all of the income ranks except in the top percent.

The Great Deflation of 1929–33: it (almost) had to happen1

Abstract: There are many explanations of the fall in prices and production called the Great Depression of 1929–33, but this article argues that a sufficient explanation of the price fall—the Great Deflation—was the resumption of the gold convertibility of currencies at prewar parities. The value (general purchasing power) of a convertible currency must be the relative cost of producing gold and other goods, which did not change significantly between 1914 and the 1930s. Monetary and fiscal policies might have affected the timing but not the ends of the price paths that were determined by the decisions to resume.

Recent Arguments against the Gold Standard

Abstract: The presidential primary contests of 2011–12 brought renewed attention to the idea of reinstituting a gold standard. The 2012 Republican Party platform ultimately included a plank calling for the creation of a commission to study the issue.The favorable attention given to the idea of reinstituting a gold standard has attracted criticism of the idea from a variety of sources. Considered here are the most important arguments against the gold standard that have been made by economists and economic journalists in recent years.A few recent arguments are novel to some extent, but not all add weight to the case against a gold standard. Several authors identify genuine historical problems that they blame on the gold standard when they should instead blame central banks for having contravened the gold standard.Gold standards, being real-world human institutions, fall short of perfection. No doubt a well-trained academic economist can describe on the whiteboard an ideal monetary system that produces greater stability in the purchasing power of money than a gold standard does — or scores higher on whatever one criterion the economist favors — while sparing us a gold standard’s resource costs by employing fiat money. But other well-trained economists have proposed different criteria, and even a flawless central bank cannot pursue all criteria with one policy.More important, fiat standards in practice have been far from perfect monetary systems. We need to examine historical evidence if we want to come to an informed judgment about whether actual gold-based systems or actual fiat based systems display the smaller set of flaws. I find that the most automatic and least managed kind of gold-based system — a gold standard with free banking — can be expected to outperform a gold standard with central banking and to outperform the kind of fiat monetary systems that currently prevail.

Authoritarianism, capitalism and institutional interdependencies in the Chinese economy: implications for governance and innovation

Abstract: Recently, the field of comparative political economy has turned to the Chinese economy. Coherent interpretation of the drivers and fundamental institutions of China’s economic system had been frustrated by the coexistence of, on the one hand, continuously developing capitalist institutions and a burgeoning market economy, and on the other, the persisting and proliferating authoritarian system of economic administration. Therefore, commonplace dichotomous frameworks of capitalism/ socialism, or coordinated/market economies are but of little avail. Building on concepts from regulation theory, this thesis argues that the current system is one wherein state and market institutions support a distinctively industrialist orientation. The Leninist apparatus of bureaucratic controls has come to instill a dynamic wherein economic performance begets political influence, and political stature commands control of capital. Financial markets complement industrial demands for capital, while the ostensibly ‘liberalist’ reorganization of the public sector and welfare system have attenuated the financial pressures on enterprise exerted by labor. As a result of the common interest of political actors and industrialists in the continuous expansion of productive capital, growth has occurred predominantly through investments in fixed capital. Stringent limitations exist which undermine achievement of long-term sustainability of the current state-industrialist nexus. Lack of compensatory mechanisms for disenfranchised constituents and the dearth of indigenous innovation are pertinent problems, and moreover, mutually reinforcing. On the one hand, without a continuous increase in relative surplus value (i.e. output per worker) a more egalitarian distribution of income seems unlikely, while on the other, the lack of individual purchasing power subverts intentions to transition towards a model of growth premised on domestic consumption. Indeed, exceptions exist (for example within the telecommunications industry, but ultimately growth in upstream sectors requires commensurate growth in downstream industries. The Chinese ‘variety of capitalism’ is indeed an idiosyncratic one, but seems to have exhausted its potential.

Political and economic features of the maize seed industry in southern Africa

Abstract: The seed industry in southern Africa (Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) has three important features: first, dominance of the government as buyer and distributor of seed; second, a high market share and power of few seed companies; and third, a sustained but incomplete effort to harmonize the seed policy in the region. The challenges the seed industry is facing are lack of basic seed, poor production infrastructure, lack of skill in seed production, challenges to access and multiply seeds of varieties released from public institutions, lack of purchasing power among smallholder farmers, high transaction cost of seed marketing, market-distorting interventions by governments, lack and misuse of market information, free riding, lack of working capital financing, and breaching of contract by seed growers. Important policy implications have been drawn from this study, which include strengthening national research systems, strategic capacity building along the maize seed value chain, imp...

A comparative study of service quality between private and public hospitals: Empirical evidences from India:

Abstract: Significant growth along with higher purchasing power of Indian customers has led to stiff competition in Indian healthcare sector. Customer perception of service quality plays a significant role w...

A Partial Backlogging Inventory Model for Deteriorating Item under Fuzzy Inflation and Discounting over Random Planning Horizon: A Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm Approach

Abstract: An inventory model for deteriorating item is considered in a random planning horizon under inflation and time value money. The model is described in two different environments: random and fuzzy random. The proposed model allows stock-dependent consumption rate and shortages with partial backlogging. In the fuzzy stochastic model, possibility chance constraints are used for defuzzification of imprecise expected total profit. Finally, genetic algorithm (GA) and fuzzy simulation-based genetic algorithm (FSGA) are used to make decisions for the above inventory models. The models are illustrated with some numerical data. Sensitivity analysis on expected profit function is also presented. Scope and Purpose. The traditional inventory model considers the ideal case in which depletion of inventory is caused by a constant demand rate. However, to keep sales higher, the inventory level would need to remain high. Of course, this would also result in higher holding or procurement cost. Also, in many real situations, during a longer-shortage period some of the customers may refuse the management. For instance, for fashionable commodities and high-tech products with short product life cycle, the willingness for a customer to wait for backlogging is diminishing with the length of the waiting time. Most of the classical inventory models did not take into account the effects of inflation and time value of money. But in the past, the economic situation of most of the countries has changed to such an extent due to large-scale inflation and consequent sharp decline in the purchasing power of money. So, it has not been possible to ignore the effects of inflation and time value of money any more. The purpose of this paper is to maximize the expected profit in the random planning horizon.

A Comparative Analysis of Education Costs and Outcomes: The United States vs. Other OECD Countries

Abstract: In this paper we confirm the universality of steadily rising education expenditures among OECD nations, as predicted by “Baumol and Bowen’s cost disease,” and show that this trajectory of costs can be expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However, we find that while the level of education costs in America is significantly higher than that of all other OECD countries, education spending per student in the United States is increasing about as quickly as it is in many other countries — perhaps even less quickly. Although these cost increases undoubtedly will contribute to each nation’s fiscal problems, we conclude that effective education contributes to improvement of the economic performance of each country and can mitigate resulting financial pressures by spurring growth in overall purchasing power.

Understanding Progress: A Heterodox Approach

Abstract: This paper examines the possibility of understanding and measuring well-being as a result of "progress" on the basis of today's dominant epistemological framework. Market criteria distort social values by allowing purchasing power to define priorities, likening luxury goods to basic needs; in the process they reinforce patterns of discrimination against disadvantaged social groups and women, introducing fatal distortions into the analysis. Similarly, because there are no appropriate mechanisms to price natural resources adequately, the market overlooks the consequences of the abuse of natural resources, degrading the quality of life, individually and collectively, or—in the framework of Latin American indigenous groups—foreclosing the possibility of "living well". We critique the common vision of the official development discourse that places its faith on technological innovations to resolve these problems. The analysis points to the need for new models of social and environmental governance to promote progress, approaches like those suggested in the paper that are inconsistent with public policies currently in place. At present, the social groups forging institutions to assure their own well-being and ecological balance are involved in local processes, often in opposition to the proposals of the political leaders in their countries.

Depreciation of rupee in indian economy: an analysis

Abstract: From the early 1980s the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected devaluation as a potential solution for developing nations that are constantly spending more on imports than they earn on exports. A lower value for the home currency will raise the price for imports while making exports cheaper. Fall in value of rupee can lead to a reduction in citizens' standard of living because their purchasing power is reduced when they buy imports and when they travel abroad. It also can add to inflationary pressure. Devaluation can make interest payments on international debt more expensive if those debts are denominated in a foreign currency, and it can discourage foreign investors. The present paper aims to explore the real implications and causes of the depreciation of the rupee on the Indian economy. Moreover; it estimates that the Indian economy has more to lose and less to gain with depreciation of rupee in long run.

Irving Fisher's debt deflation analysis: From the Purchasing Power of Money (1911) to the Debt-deflation Theory of the Great Depression (1933)

Abstract: In 1933, Irving Fisher proposed an explanation for the Great Depression based on the distinction between the price level and price change effect of deflation in a context of over-indebtedness. This paper compares the debt-deflation theory of Fisher (1933) with the dynamic depression process he had expounded almost 20 years earlier in the Purchasing Power of Money (1911). The role played by both price level and price change effects in the analyses of Fisher (1933, 1911) are clarified in the context of the disequilibrium model of Tobin (1975). More precisely, we show that the stationary equilibrium is assumed to be locally unstable according to Fisher's 1911 insights and globally unstable according to his 1933 analysis.

Estimating Income/Expenditure Differences Across Populations: New Fun with Old Engel's Law

Abstract: How much larger are the consumption possibilities of an urban US household with per capita expenditures of 1,000 US dollars per month than a rural Indonesian household with per capita expenditures of 1,000,000 Indonesian Rupiah per month? Consumers in different markets face widely different consumption possibilities and prices and hence the conversion of incomes or expenditures to truly comparable units of purchasing power is extremely difficult. We propose a simple supplement to existing purchasing power adjusted currency conversions. The Pritchett-Spivack Ratio (PSR) estimates the differences in household per capita expenditure using a simple inversion of the Engel’s law relationship between the share of food in consumption and total income/expenditures. Intuitively, we ask: "How much higher (as a ratio) would the expenditures of a household at 1,000,000 Indonesian Rupiah need to be along a given Engel relationship before they were predicted to have the same food share as a US household with consumption of 1,000 US dollars?" The striking empirical stability of Working-Lesser Engel coefficient estimates across time and space and widely available estimates of consumptions expenditures and hence food shares allow us to make two robust points using the PSR. First, the consumption of the typical (median) household in a developing country would have to rise 5 to10 fold to reach that of a household at the poverty line in an OECD country. Second, even the "rich of the poor" — the 90th or 95th percentile in developing countries — have food shares substantially higher than the "poor of the rich."

Nominal or Real? The Impact of Regional Price Levels on Satisfaction with Life

Abstract: We study the effect of real versus nominal income on life satisfaction. According to economic theory, real income, i.e., nominal income adjusted for purchasing power, should be the relevant source of life satisfaction. Previous work, however, has only studied the impact of nominal income. We use a novel data set comprising about 7 million data points that are used to construct a price level for each of the about 400 administrative districts in Germany. We estimate a fixed effects model that controls for individual and local heterogeneity other than the price level. Our results show that higher price levels significantly reduce life satisfaction for individuals in the four lowest deciles of the income distribution. Furthermore, our findings suggest that people do not perceive money as neutral: the loss in life satisfaction caused by a higher price level is much larger than the loss in life satisfaction induced by a corresponding decrease in nominal income. Our results provide an argument in favor of regional indexation of government transfer payments such as social welfare benefits.

Rural Marketing in India: Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract: In the recent years rural market have acquired significance and attract the attention of marketers as 6884% population of India reside in 6, 38,000 villages and overall growth of economy has resulted into substantial increase in the purchasing power of the rural communities Due to green revolution, the rural areas are consuming a large quantity of industrial and manufactured products In this way rural market offers opportunities in the form of large untapped market, increase in disposable income, increase in literacy level and large scope for penetration To take the advantage of these opportunities, a special marketing strategy ‘Rural Marketing’ has emerged This paper tries to understand the rural market, importance of rural marketing and status of rural market The main aim of the study to observe the potentiality of Indian rural markets and find out various problems are being faced by rural marketer

STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONAL TOWARDS SMALLHOLDERS WELFARE : Evidence from Existing Condition of Cocoa Smallholders in Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract: This paper deals with institutional development of cocoa smallholders. As widely known that Indonesia is the third largest cocoa producer in the world, of which about 90% of total production is obtained from smallholders. Poverty trap for cocoa smallholders is a result of : ( i) the low quality of human resources, (ii) lack of agricultural assets. (iii) lack of access to social facilities, information and communication, and (iv) lack of income gained in economic activity. All this cannot be separated from the weak role and inter-agency coordination, indicating the weak of smallholders institutional. By employing an Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM), the research objectives are : ( i) identifying the role of institutions in institutional of cocoa smallholders, (ii) assessing the interest of education and training materials in smallholder development. The central point of ISM results show that, ( i) Local Office for Forestry and Estate (Hutbun), (ii) Local Field Extension Officer for Plantation (PPL), and (iii) Marketing Institutions are the key institution actors in strengthening institutional of cocoa smallholders. This leads us to argue that maximizing the role of Hutbun, PPL, and Marketing Institutions could help smallholder institutional development, improving welfare in other words. Similarly. the role of education and training is also needed in helping smallholders. ISM results persuasively revealed that, the materials of ( i) post-harvest management, (ii) marketing, and (iii) 1) The research was funded by the 2012/14 Research Scheme for National Strategic Issue (HIBAHSTRANAS) Project, Directorate-General of Higher Education. Ministry of Education and Culture, Republic of Indonesia. 2) Visiting Fellow. Fall Semester, 2012/13, Ryukoku University, Kyoto, supported by Scheme for Academic Mobility and Exchange (SAME) Program, Directorate-General of Higher Education. Ministry of Education and Culture, Indonesia (arsyad_uh@yahoo.com ; arsyad@unhas.ac.id) 3) Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Agriculture, Muhammadiyah University of Parepare, and Director of Center for Environmental Studies of the university. 4) Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Economic, Muhammadiyah University of Parepare and he has been President of the university since 2007. 72 Vol. 52 No. 1 • 2 the provision of agriculture inputs are the key elements. A major implication of this finding is that, introducing intensively materials of post-harvest management & fermentation, agriculture input provision, and marketing aspects in educating and training the smallholders, could become a potential route to strengthen institutional towards cocoa smallholders welfare in the country. 1. Current Issue and Objectives Although the rapid expansion of Indonesian cocoa production has been mainly contributed by smallholders, the proportion of smallholders whose income is below the poverty line is cyclical. Firstly, the smallholders are originally poor. Secondly, the smallholders were moving out of poverty then fell back into poverty, causing low purchasing power {Arsyad & Kawamura, 2009) impacting poverty severity. In other words, it is very difficult to dream how to increase smallholder welfare without having political will to break out their poverty trap. At the same time, a remaining crucial issue deals with cocoa smallholders welfare is exacerbated by a very weak farming institutional. This is not without clear arguments. Poverty trap of cocoa smallholders is a result of : ( i) the low quality of human resources, (ii) lack of agricultural assets, (iii) lack of access to social facilities, information and communication, and (iv) lack of income gained in economic activity. All this cannot be, however, separated from the weak role and inter-agency coordination creating ego-sector, horizontal and vertical conflicts among institutions, indicating the weak of smallholders institutional. Libecap (2011) gave an important example in agriculture, that the irrigation expansion required investment in infrastructure for capturing, storing, and delivering water, facilitated by institutional adaptation through new water rights and new water supply organizations. Even in theoretical ways, Beckert (1999) identified that, one of the persistent problems facing institutional organization theory has been the question of how to deal with interest-driven behaviour and institutional change. If organizational structures and strategies are shaped by institutional environments, what is the role of 'strategic choice' in the management of organizations? Therefore, there is no doubt as Parada, Nordqvist & Gimeno (2010) depicted that institutional champion bridges the gap between micro-level change [as their case, at the firm level] and the professional association's macro-level discourse. In facts, many institutions are not institutionalized. This becomes a principal reason to identify the role of institutions in strengthening institutional of cocoa smallholders as a puzzling current issue. The issue is also examined by Nuddin (2007) in his research on watersheet institutional that, the main cause of poor performance of the coordination March 2013 STRENGTHENING INSTITUTIONAL TOWARDS SMALLHOLDERS WELFARE: 73 functions between agencies is a very weak cooperation commitment of government official in the region and agency coordination ambiguity. Empirical results conducted by Jari & Fraser (2009) in South Africa persuasively show that, market information, expertise on grades and standards, contractual agreements, social capital, market infrastructure, group participation and tradition significantly influence household marketing behavior. The next important factor in identifying poverty (welfare, in other words) is access to information for the poor. The study conducted by the CRIEC-World Bank (2002) in Indonesia reveals the importance of information availability. It was found that 30% of the households surveyed receive an income just sufficient for food requirements. The poor are usually farmers who lack assets, both land and equipment as well as information (market, technology, capital and business opportunity). The World Bank classified the main factor that determines the gap between the poor and the rich, namely access to information. This is one finding. Another interesting finding is from Kawamura's study (2002) on the causal factor of poverty in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, by using an index "Transportation and Communication". He found that "Radio Communication Access" has no statistically significant path coefficient (/3 weight) in relation to the ''Lowest Income Level" as a poverty proxy in his study, meaning there is no direct impact on poverty. However, "Radio Communication Access'' shows a significant /3 weight in relation to the "Dependency on Agriculture" as one of the intermediate variables in his work. Thus, "Radio Communication Access" will eventually have an indirect impact on "Lowest Income Level" or poverty through the variable "Dependency on Agriculture". The two studies above lead us to clearly state how important information accessibility is (Arsyad & Kawamura, 2009 ; 2010) in bridging smallholder institutional towards their welfare or real income increasing in the future. However, it is also important to emphasize that, the direction and level of changes in real incomes brought about by structural adjustment are determined by a variety of factors, including sources of income (Sahn & Sarris, 1999) both agriculture and non-agricultural economic activities as crucial dimension in improving smallholder social life. Another crucial thing in identifying a possible path to strengthen institutional of smallholders is educating smallholders to have good skill and marketing aspect as well. Therefore, a linkage between smallholders and training for technical aspect of farm management as well as marketing cannot be neglected in the country. A study conducted by Chibanda, Ortmann & Lyne (2009) revealed an interesting result. It centers the impact of institutional and governance factors on the performance of 10 smallholders agricultural cooperatives. They persuasively show that, the performance of the selected smallholder 74 Vol. 52 No. 1 • 2 cooperatives is influenced by institutional and governance problems. Institutional problems give rise to low levels of equity and debt capital, reliance on government funding, low levels of investment, and subsequent loss of members. Governance problems are strongly linked to the absence of secret ballot, low levels of education, lack of production and management skills training, weak marketing arrangements and consequent low returns to members as patrons or investors. It is also facts that with many reasons, education system is not currently supporting the development of agriculture industry (Alam et al, 2009). Therefore, on the job training by providers could become essential way to lead smallholders have good skill in agriculture, provision strategy of input and marketing aspects in rural agriculture. Given the current situation, a weakness of smallholder institutional, less education and important training materials for smallholders becomes serious issue in developing countries as revealed by some studies above, in which Indonesia is no exception. Therefore, it is really necessary to construct the research on institutional smallholders as a current interesting issue in improving smallholder welfare in the country. Two specific purposes of the paper are ; ( i) identifying the role of institutions in institutional of cocoa smallholders, (ii) assessing the interest of education and training materials in smallholder development.

Projections of dynamic generational tables and longevity risk in Chile

Abstract: The increase in longevity risk is leading to serious challenges for economies. Industries such as insurance and pensions, which are most closely related to the management of the risks of an aging population, have for a number of years experienced direct effects of this kind. To counterbalance this, they have developed techniques for constructing mortality tables in order to project the future trends of life expectancy at birth and thus reduce the level of uncertainty that this market by its nature involves. Developed countries have led technical improvements for constructing these tables, while Latin American countries have lagged behind significantly in this respect. Given that these countries cannot yet develop tables weighted by social and medical aspects, it is highly probable that this situation will continue. That is why this study aims to construct a forecast for mortality rates, based on projection models of the ARMA (p, q) type and non-parametric contrast methodology. The study is based on the case of Chile, which provides most information for constructing a model for a Latin American country. The estimates show that the official mortality tables in Chile could include significant lags by 2050, which will have major negative effects on the pension and insurance industry, in the hypothetical case that they were not updated. In another exercise, using the mortality table estimated in this work, we found that if pensions in Chile are not to lose their purchasing power, the contribution rate would have to be increased by 8 percentage points in the case of men and 4 in the case of women. Given that Chile is the best developed country in the region with respect to mortality tables, the negative effects on the rest of Latin America could be even more worrisome.

Examining the Value of Money in England over the Long Term (1259-2009)

Abstract: This paper seeks to analyze the value and purchasing power of money in England over 750 years, during which time the pound has lost almost all of its value. This paper proposes a suitable methodology of measuring nominal inflation in England over the long term, by constructing a wholesale commodity price index in order to determine the purchasing power of money, being the inverse of prices. The index adjusts indices of the value of gold and silver, to determine the purchasing power of gold, silver, and also real prices, thereby providing a suitable technique to measure the store of value function of money. In so doing, we discover that a monetary theory of value accurately interprets the empirical evidence.

Examining the value of money in america over the long term (1792–2009)

Abstract: This paper aims to examine the significant loss of value of money over the long term in America between 1792–2009. One U.S. dollar in 1792 is now worth only two cents by 2009. By critically examining the value and purchasing power of money in America, this paper compares empirical evidence and statistics through long term analysis of gold, silver and commodity price indices, as to which medium of exchange provides for the best store of value. This paper finds that monetary policy should not target stable prices, by managing the quantity or purchasing power of money, but instead adopt a monetary theory of value involving a stable currency, free of any monetary management or manipulation, permitting a stable purchasing power and thus stable prices.

Origins and developments of Irving Fisher's compensated dollar plan

Abstract: In 1911, Fisher published The Purchasing Power of Money. In chapter 13 of the first edition and in an appendix in the second section of 1913, he introduced a rule to maintain the level of prices stable, called the “compensated dollar”. According to this rule, the legal definition of money is changed. In other words, the weight in gold of the dollar is modified once a month in order to impede the price changes on a basket of goods. According to Fisher, this plan will offer stability in the purchasing power of money. He sought after to find an alternative system to the price fix system under the Gold Standard. He wanted to introduce a dollar fixed in his purchasing power, but variable in its metallic weight. In this paper we will focus on Fisher’s analysis on the stability of money value and his position in the debate on the compensated dollar from 1909 to 1922. We will study the anticipations of Fisher’s compensated dollar, the receptions and evolutions of Fisher’s project, the gold exchange standard and the algebraic evidence. We also study the debate links to the question if the compensated dollar plan match or not with the quantity theory of money. We ends with the analysis of the gold price and elasticity of gold net supply, and we explain the relation between the Yellowbacks and the varying price of the gold reserve.