Showing papers on "Real gross domestic product published in 1988"

A new set of international comparisons of real product and price levels estimates for 130 countries, 1950–1985

Abstract: A new set of international comparisons covering the period 1950–85 is developed here for 121 market and 9 centrally planned economies. This new so-called Penn World Table (Mark 4), a completely revised and updated expansion of an equivalent table published by the authors in 1984, draws on the data of two previously unavailable international comparison benchmark studies. This article presents a detailed description of all estimation procedures, and excerpts from the overall DATA TABLE covering two years, 1980 and 1985. Three computer diskettes accompanying this article (and also available from the authors) contain the complete 36–year, 60,000 entry DATA TABLE in a form that economizes on scarce journal space and is immediately machine-readable. For the 121 market economies, the DATA TABLE gives annually, in addition to population and exchange rates, real product and price level estimates for four different national income concepts, and for the major subaggregates, consumption, investment, and government. Only population and real gross domestic product estimates are given for the nine centrally planned economies, however. This new table is one more step toward the goal of establishing a new worldwide System of Real National Accounts.

State Intervention in ‘Outward-looking’ Development: Neoclassical Theory and Taiwanese Practice

Abstract: If the wealth of any nation has multiplied miraculously, that nation must be Taiwan.2 Taiwan has experienced real GDP growth of 10.6 per cent a year from 1965 to 1979; no deterioration in income distribution; improvement in literacy and life expectancy better than in almost all other developing countries; increases in real manufacturing earnings of 15 per cent a year from 1960 to 1979; unemployment at less than 2 per cent since 1970. Income per person is three to ten times higher than China, depending on which figures are used. In 1953 Taiwan had a per capita income below the Mediterranean countries, well below any Latin American country, and well below Malaysia. By 1982 this had reached US$2500, substantially higher than Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico, and on a par with Portugal, Argentina and Chile.

Convergence or divergence?: change in welfare effort in OECD countries 1960–1980

Abstract: . This paper examines changes in welfare effort from 1960 to 1980 and two intervening periods. Analysis of data on 17 OECD countries indicates that there is increasing divergence in welfare effort, as reflected in expenditure and policy orientation, although this statement masks important nuances relating to measures of welfare effort and time periods. The findings illustrate the importance of considering the elements of welfare effort. The patterns of variation in social transfer and government civil consumption expenditure differ as do the explanations of these patterns particularly those relating to the impact of working class mobilisation variables. These variables are positively and relatively strongly associated with change in consumption expenditure in both the 1960–73 and 1973–80 periods but only weakly associated with change in social transfer expenditure. This has implications for findings relating to the widely used ILO measure of welfare effort. Since it is skewed towards social transfer payments and includes only a small part of consumption expenditure, the impact of working class mobilization variables is not evident. Finally, the standardization of change in welfare effort for average annual change in real GDP results in interesting insights relating to the impact of independent variables on ‘real’ as opposed to nominal change in welfare effort.

The multinationals’ economic penetration, growth, industrial output, and domestic savings in developing countries: Another look

Abstract: This study evaluates the effects of the multinationals’ economic penetration on GDP growth rate, the industrial output growth, and domestic capital formation using, for econometric analyses, a more recent data set from LDCs. Likelihood ratio tests showed that (a) there was significant structural variation across the low‐income and the middle‐income countries, and (b) there had been a significant dynamic structural shift over time, that influenced the economic relationships. Statistical tests also showed that the hypothesis of exogeneity of the multinational variable could not be rejected. The study finds little or no empirical support for the multinational variable being significantly a deterrent factor on LDCs’ GDP growth rate, or on industrial output growth, or on domestic savings rate; whereas the effects of domestic variables, the national savings rate, exports and state's economic intervention policy emerge quite strongly.

Government involvement in the economy and the distribution of income: A cross-national study

Abstract: This study explores the effect of government involvement in the economy, as measured by central government expenditures as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on the distribution of income. It is hypothesized that state spending — in the form of transfer payments to firms and households, government purchases, and military spending — will have a negative influence on income inequality only at high levels of economic development. Multivariate analysis confirms this hypothesis. The results show that government expenditures as a percent of GDP and level of industrialization interact to produce a negative impact on income inequality. This finding, moreover, holds up after additional investigation for possible OLS assumption violations, sample dependence of results, and model misspecification.

Economic Growth in Canada, 1695-1739: Estimates and Analysis

Abstract: B ) Y constructing rough approximations of constant dollar or real gross domestic product (RGDP) for early Canada (specifically the French colony in and about the St. Lawrence River Valley), I hope to provide a more solid foundation for an understanding of this colony's economic structure and evolution. At present, incoherent statistical and literary sources serve as the basis for most economic commentaries on early Canada. My constant dollar GDP series for i695-I739 enables the computation of a per capita output series and of growth rates for that output. It also facilitates estimating the relative significance of different sectors. Furthermore, these GDP estimates permit an empirically grounded comparison of early Canada with British America, thus placing the economy of the French colony in a North American context. The construction of an RGDP series is made possible by the fairly comprehensive and accurate censuses, particularly from i68o to I739, prepared for Canada by the colonial authorities.' Although these censuses were not designed to account for all output, we can use them to extend and deepen our knowledge of early Canada economy. No consensus exists on Canada's economic condition during the period under scrutiny. ther, two general points of view can be described. The dominant interpretation holds that the economic system remained weak and stagnant, principally owing to exaggerated concentration on the fur trade and to insufficiency of internal or external markets; leading proponents of this view include Harold A. Innis, Jean Hamelin, and Louise

Singapore and the Recession of 1985

Abstract: The republic of Singapore has long been presented as an example of a "free market" success story. It is used, along with the other "little tigers" of East Asia, to support the contention that exportoriented industrialization is the most effective strategy for development. Certainly in general economic terms, Singapore has been remarkably successful in generating growth and improving the living standards of its populace. At independence in 1957, the island was still very much a lessdeveloped country with little manufacturing industry, a decaying urban structure, rapid population growth (4.4% per year), widespread poverty, and high unemployment (1O-15%).1 By 1984, per capita GNP had reached US$7,260-higher than that of Ireland and Italy, the manufacturing sector was vibrant, having grown at an annual rate of over 17% between 1960 and 1982;2 the physical and social infrastructure was the most developed of any country in the region; and poverty had been dramatically reduced. This is all the more remarkable given that the republic had few natural advantages except for its geographical location and the industriousness of its workforce. Further, the decision to leave the Federation of Malay States in 1965 cut the island off from its traditional hinterland. But in 1985 the expansion of Singapore's economy, which had been averaging 9.7% per year since 1965 and had never fallen below 4%, slowed precipitously and real GDP showed a negative rate of 1.7% (see Table 1). The following discussion will examine the various factors that have been

Financial Reform and Monetary Control in Indonesia

Abstract: The financial system in Indonesia has been strongly influenced by developments in the petroleum sector, which accounts for more than half of export receipts and of public sector revenues. In the 1970s, the expansion of oil revenues contributed to a rapid growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), averaging 8 percent annually, and to a sharp increase in domestic savings, from 12 percent of gross national product (GNP) in 1971 to 26 percent in 1980. The oil boom was also reflected in higher inflation, with the GDP deflator rising by an average rate of 16 percent a year between 1974 and 1982. The concomitant expansion of the financial sector was sizable, both in terms of volume of transactions and in the range of financial services. The situation changed drastically in 1982–1983, however. Declining oil exports contributed to a marked weakening of the external accounts and triggered a comprehensive adjustment effort that was initiated in 1983. Principal features of this effort included a 28 percent depreciation of the exchange rate, the streamlining of public sector subsidies and investment programs, and a reform of the tax system aimed chiefly at increasing nonoil tax revenue.

Economic Growth, Economic Structure, and Real Gross Domestic Product in Early Canada, 1695-1739: Estimates and Analysis

Abstract: At present there are two general points of view on the economy of early Canada. The dominant viewpoint is that the economic system was stagnant, due to the exaggerated concentration on the fur trade and insufficiencies of internal and external markets. This viewpoint is disputed with the counterargument put forward that the economy was becoming diversified and strong, and that it was on par with British America in the second quarter of the eighteenth century. However both these viewpoints are backed up by incoherent statistical and literary sources and the evidence is too fragmented to come to a firm conclusion. A more solid foundation for understanding this colony's economic structure and evolution could be produced by rough approximations of real gross domestic product for early Canada. Comprehensive and accurate censuses prepared for Canada by colonial authorities allow for a construction of a constant dollar GDP series. This RGDP series for 1695-1739 enables the computation of a per capita output series and growth rate, and permit for empirically grounded comparisons of early Canada with British America. The results, which are negatively biased, show an overall annual growth rate of 0.5 to 0.7 percent, which is on a par with some estimates of British America's annual growth. The majority of this growth is from the agricultural sector, though the non-agricultural sector also had a good growth rate. While at times the fur trade did have a positive impact on the growth rate, it was in decline. In conclusion, it appears that early Canada's economy was not stagnant nor relatively impoverished and instead was economically dynamic and prosperous.

External balance, fiscal policy, and growth in Turkey

Abstract: Turkey has, alone among the high debt countries, managed to maintain a high growth rate after rescheduling its debt. This paper discusses two issues this experience raises. One, how did Turkey translate the extra breathing space that continued access to foreign financing gave it, into sustained high real growth? Second, what are the prospects for a repeat performance? In Section II of the paper, the analytical structure of the model is presented, and the link between private and public investment and the growth rate of real GDP is econometrically established. Section III uses this model to assess the public sector's role in Turkey's macroeconomic achievements since 1980. whilst Section IV makes use of the model to focus upon the future.

The New Protectionism with Nontariff Instruments

Abstract: During the 1950s and 1960s the volume of international trade and the economies of most nations in the world, particularly the industrial countries, grew at an unprecedented rate. The merchandise trade of industrial countries grew at an average rate of about 8 per cent a year and this fuelled a growth in real GDP of over 4 per cent a year. This period can truly be regarded as a golden age of growth and stability.

Financial Deepening, Domestic Resource Mobilisation and Economic Growth: Jamaica 1955–82

Abstract: The economic growth performance of most Commonwealth Caribbean countries has been unimpressive in recent years. Real per capita gross domestic product declined by 5 per cent in Guyana and 17 per cent in Jamaica between 1970 and 1982. The Trinidad and Tobago economy which grew rapidly during the petroleum price boom of 1974 to 1981 experienced decreases in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1983 and 1984. Barbadian real gross product per capita also declined in 1982 and 1983.

Estimates of Canadian GDP, Monthly, 1962 to 1985

Abstract: In this paper we estimate a monthly series for Gross Domestic Product at market prices for Canada and a price deflator for the period 1962 to 1985. These estimates are consistent with the quarterly estimates which form the basis of the new national income measures of Statistics Canada. We combine the quarterly estimates from Statistics Canada with monthly data in a Kalman filter framework. In addition to presenting estimates of real GDP which can be used in monthly models, we present the only monthly price deflator of any income measure in Canada.