Showing papers on "Real gross domestic product published in 2017"
TL;DR: In this paper, Al-Mulali and Ozturk extended the basic Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by considering life expectancy at birth, fertility rate and political institutional index variables as new possible determinants of environmental degradation.
Abstract: This paper extends the work of Al-Mulali and Ozturk (2015) [1] by re-investigating the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 15 MENA (Middle East and North African) countries using the Ecological Footprint (EF) as a proxy of environmental degradation over the period 1975–2007. Unlike the existing studies, we augment the basic EKC relationship by considering life expectancy at birth, fertility rate and political institutional index variables as new possible determinants of environmental degradation. The estimation of this relationship has been conducted for all MENA 15 countries, for oil-exporting and non-oil-exporting countries sub-samples. The results show that energy use worsens ecological footprint, whereas real GDP per capita exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with EF in oil-exporting countries and in the sample as a whole, i.e., the EKC hypothesis is validated. For the non-oil-exporting countries, the relationship between EF and economic growth is U-shaped. Moreover, our findings show that socio-demographic variables such as urbanization, life expectancy at birth and fertility rate improve the environment in the long term. We also found that the improvement of political institutions in those countries has not been accompanied by a reduction of environmental stress. The Granger causality results support evidence of the existence of an error correction mechanism between the EF, real GDP, energy use and the fertility rate. Specifically, in the short term, we found strong evidence for bidirectional causality among the ecological, real GDP and energy-use variables.
430 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the dynamic interrelationship in the output-energy-environment nexus by applying panel vector autoregression (PVAR) and impulse response function analyses to data on energy consumption (and its subcomponents), carbon dioxide emissions and real GDP in 106 countries classified by different income groups over the period 1971-2011.
Abstract: In this study we examine the dynamic interrelationship in the output–energy–environment nexus by applying panel vector autoregression (PVAR) and impulse response function analyses to data on energy consumption (and its subcomponents), carbon dioxide emissions and real GDP in 106 countries classified by different income groups over the period 1971–2011. Our results reveal that the effects of the various types of energy consumption on economic growth and emissions are heterogeneous on the various groups of countries. Moreover, causality between total economic growth and energy consumption is bidirectional, thus making a case for the feedback hypothesis. However, we cannot report any statistically significant evidence that renewable energy consumption, in particular, is conducive to economic growth, a fact that weakens the argument that renewable energy consumption is able to promote growth in a more efficient and environmentally sustainable way. Finally, in analysing the case for an inverted U-shaped EKC, we find that the continued process of growth aggravates the greenhouse gas emissions phenomenon. In this regard, we cannot provide any evidence that developed countries may actually grow-out of environmental pollution. In the light of these findings, the efficacy of recent government policies in various countries to promote renewable energy consumption as a means for sustainable growth is questioned. Put differently, there seems to be an ethical dilemma, between high economic growth rates and unsustainable environment and low or zero economic growth and environmental sustainability.
306 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the long-run dynamic relationship of carbon dioxide emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), the square of real GDP, energy consumption, trade and tourism under an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyse the long-run dynamic relationship of carbon dioxide emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), the square of real GDP, energy consumption, trade and tourism under an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. Since we find the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel time-series data, we apply second-generation unit root tests, cointegration test and causality test which can deal with cross-sectional dependence problems. The cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and the cross-sectionally augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root tests indicate that the analysed variables become stationary at their first differences. The Lagrange multiplier bootstrap panel cointegration test shows the existence of a long-run relationship between the analysed variables. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique indicates that energy consumption and ...
277 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the energy use -economic growth nexus by disaggregating energy use into two types of energy, renewable and non-renewable energy use, and provided evidence for long-term equilibrium relationship between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), renewable energy use (EHE), non-Renewable EHE, real gross fixed capital formation and labor force.
Abstract: This study examines the energy use – economic growth nexus by disaggregating energy use into two types of energy, renewable and non-renewable energy use. Our sample consists of eleven MENA Net Oil Importing Countries (NOICs) during the period 1980–2012. A multivariate panel framework was used to estimate the long run relationship and the panel Granger causality tests was employed to assess the causality direction among variables. The empirical results provide evidence for long-term equilibrium relationship between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), renewable energy use, non-renewable energy use, real gross fixed capital formation and labor force. The results provide evidence also for positive and statistically significant elasticities. Moreover, the empirical findings from panel Error Correction Model confirm the existence of bidirectional causality between renewable energy use and economic growth, and between non-renewable energy use and economic growth, results that support the feedback hypothesis. Moreover, our empirical findings provide evidence for two way (bidirectional) causal association in both the short and long-run between renewable and non-renewable energy use which proves the substitutability and interdependence between these two types of energy sources. The policies implications of these results are also proposed and discussed.
276 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used panel cointegration techniques and Granger causality tests to investigate the dynamic causal links between per capita renewable energy consumption, agricultural value added (AVA), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and real gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of five North Africa countries spanning the period 1980-2011.
266 citations
TL;DR: It is found that health plays an important role in GDP per capita; it limits its effect on a growing deterioration in the quality of the environment.
209 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the comprehensive dynamic relationship between environmental quality, economic development and public health in China for the first time and used a carefully designed simultaneous equation model (SEM) that is composed of three equations that describe the relationships among economic development, environmental quality and health.
195 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the extent to which cultural diversity affects economic growth and whether this relation depends on the level of development of a country and find that overall both indices have a distinct positive impact on real GDP per capita and that the effect of diversity seems to be more consistent in developing countries.
174 citations
TL;DR: The results support the existence of hypothetical EKC and indicate that trade openness negatively and significantly affects emissions, while real GDP and energy do positive effects of emissions and feedback linkages of emissions, real GDP, and trade are revealed.
Abstract: This paper examines whether the hypothetical environmental Kuznet curve (EKC) exists or not and investigates how trade openness affects CO2 emissions, together with real GDP and total primary energy consumption. The study sample comprises ten newly industrialized countries (NICs-10) from 1971 to 2013. The results support the existence of hypothetical EKC and indicate that trade openness negatively and significantly affects emissions, while real GDP and energy do positive effects of emissions. Moreover, the empirical results of short-run causalities indicate feedback hypothetical linkage of real GDP and trade, unidirectional linkages from energy to emissions, and from trade to energy. The error correction terms (ECTs) reveal in the long run, feedback linkages of emissions, real GDP, and trade openness, while energy Granger causes emissions, real GDP, and trade, respectively. The study recommendations are that our policymakers should encourage and expand the trade openness in these countries, not only to restrain CO2 emissions but also to boost their growth.
171 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that an expansion of core government spending equal to 1% of euro-area GDP would boost periphery GDP by over 1% in a liquidity trap lasting three years, nearly half as large as the effect on core GDP.
Abstract: We show that a fiscal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model specification, an expansion of core government spending equal to 1% of euro-area GDP would boost periphery GDP by over 1%in a liquidity trap lasting three years, nearly half as large as the effect oncore GDP. Accordingly, under a standard ad hoc loss function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements, especially in the periphery. The benefits are considerably smaller under a utility-based welfare measure, reflecting in part that higher net exports play a material role in raising periphery GDP.
143 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the international spillovers of US monetary policy shocks on a number of macroeconomic and financial variables in 36 advanced and emerging economies are studied, and no clear-cut systematic relation emerges between country responses and likely relevant country characteristics, such as their income level, dollar exchange rate flexibility, financial openness, trade openness vs. the US, dollar exposure in foreign assets and liabilities, and incidence of commodity exports.
TL;DR: The authors investigated the relationship between real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and CO2 emissions per capita associated with both production and consumption activities and found that the income-elasticity for both inventories is regime-dependent and reflects small carbon efficiency gains from economic development.
TL;DR: In this paper, a newly developed LM unit root test based on residual augmented least squares (RALS) regression under structural break and Bayer-Hanck cointegration approach was applied to explore the integrating properties and to check whether a long run relationship exists among energy demand, financial development, economic growth, foreign direct investment (hereafter FDI), trade and capital using the United States dataset spanning over a period of four decades of 1973q1-2014q4.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions for 17 transitional economies based on a series of annual data from 1997 to 2014, and found that a 1% change in GDP leads to around a 0.35% change of CO2 emission on average for the considered group of countries.
Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions for 17 transitional economies based on a series of annual data from 1997 to 2014. The analysis was conducted using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. The results clearly suggest the existence of a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship between CO2 emissions and real GDP. A 1% change in GDP leads to around a 0.35% change of CO2 emission on average for the considered group of countries. Close values of long-run coefficients for all estimations confirm the robustness of the estimated results. The authors state that transitional economies need to follow global policy incentives, and try to implement new mechanisms and instruments for the purpose of reducing CO2 emissions, such as environmental taxes, emissions-trading schemes, and carbon capture and storage, if they want to achieve future CO2 emission reductions, while attaining economic growth.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore economic growth-energy consumption nexus in Algeria between 1980 and 2012 and demonstrate the existence of long-run link between real gross domestic product, real capital and the two categories of energy consumption i.e. renewable energy per capita and non-renewable energy.
Abstract: This study aims to explore economic growth-energy consumption nexus in Algeria between 1980 and 2012. With cointegration tests, we demonstrate the existence of long-run link between real gross domestic product, real capital and the two categories of energy consumption i.e renewable energy per capita and non-renewable energy. The long-run and the short-run autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimates indicate that only the non-renewable energy sort and capital can contribute to enhancing economic growth whereas renewable energy does not show any significant effect. The outcome of causality tests proves a feedback link among non-renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product, among capital and gross domestic product, and among non-renewable energy and capital, in both short-run and long-run terms. Moreover, the results reveal a unidirectional link going from renewable energy to economic growth, capital, and non-renewable energy respectively, in the long run. Furthermore, the results illustrate the presence of a unidirectional link going from non-renewable energy to renewable energy in the short term. Our outcome suggests that policy makers in Algeria should enhance the renewable energy share together with controlling the non-renewable one.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Ecuador from 1971 to 2010, and found that the output of this country is based on environmental degradation.
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Ecuador from 1971 to 2010. We estimate this relationship in a country with a heavy reliance on revenue from the exploitation of natural resources, the depletion of vegetation cover in recent decades and a low level of participation of industry in GDP. We show the existence of an inverse relationship between real GDP and vegetation cover, indicating that the output of this country is based on environmental degradation. Through Johansen co-integration tests, we check that there is a relationship of long-term equilibrium between the first differences of real GDP, vegetal cover and the urbanization rate. The ECM shows that there is a short-term relationship between vegetation cover, the GDP and the rate of urbanization. Finally, we did not found Granger causality between the variables. A policy implication based on our findings is that policies to protect the environment should not jeopardize economic growth and not limit the rapid urbanization in the country.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the relationship among economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy use for 19 APEC countries over the 1960-2013 period, using a panel VAR technique.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship among economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy use for 19 APEC countries over the 1960–2013 years. Using a panel VAR technique, a three-variable VAR is estimated. Empirical findings illustrate that no causal relationship emerges between real GDP and energy use. Thus, our empirical evidence is in line with the “neutrality hypothesis.” Moreover, panel cointegration tests show that a long-run equilibrium relationship is questionable for the APEC countries. Granger causality analyses confirm our previous results, since in nine countries any causal relationship between GDP and energy is found.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors empirically examined the impact of agricultural sector on the economic growth of Nigeria, using time series data from 1981 to 2013, and revealed that Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), agricultural output and oil rents have a long-run equilibrium relationship.
Abstract: Agriculture is a panacea for economic growth (Gunner Myrdal, 1984). The battle for long-run economic growth is either won or lost in the agricultural sector. However, how this path births economic prosperity has been the subject of debates among economist and development scholars. This study empirically examines the impact of agricultural sector on the economic growth of Nigeria, using time series data from 1981 to 2013. Findings revealed that Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), agricultural output and oil rents have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) result shows that, the speed of adjustment of the variables towards their long run equilibrium path was low, though agricultural output had a positive impact on economic growth. It was recommended that, the government and policy makers should embark on diversification and enhance more allocation in terms of budgeting to the agricultural sector. Keywords : Agriculture, economic growth, time series, cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM). JEL Classifications : O13, Q32, Q33
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide empirical evidence on the macroeconomic impact of the expanded asset purchase programme (APP) announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) in January 2015 and identify the shock associated to the APP with a combination of sign, timing and magnitude restrictions in the context of an estimated time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility.
Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the macroeconomic impact of the expanded asset purchase programme (APP) announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) in January 2015. The shock associated to the APP is identified with a combination of sign, timing and magnitude restrictions in the context of an estimated time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. The evidence suggests that the APP had a significant upward effect on both real GDP and HICP inflation in the euro area during the first two years. The effect on real GDP appears to be stronger in the short term, while that on HICP inflation seems more marked in the medium term. Moreover, several channels of transmission appear to have been activated, including the portfolio rebalancing channel, the exchange rate channel, the inflation re-anchoring channel and the credit channel.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the long-run and short-run causal relationships among energy consumption, real gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emissions using aggregate and disaggregate (sectoral) energy consumption measures utilising annual data from 1971 to 2011.
Abstract: This study examines the long-run and short-run causal relationships among energy consumption, real gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emissions using aggregate and disaggregate (sectoral) energy consumption measures utilising annual data from 1971 to 2011. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test reveals that there is a long-run relationship among the variables concerned at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. The Toda–Yamamoto causality tests, however, reveal that the long-run as well short-run causal relationship among the variables is not uniform across sectors. The weight of evidences of the study indicates that there is short-run causality from electricity consumption to economic growth, and to CO2 emissions. The results suggest that India should take appropriate cautious steps to sustain high growth rate and at the same time to control emissions of CO2. Further, energy and environmental policies should acknowledge the sectoral differences in the relationship between energy consump...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined several drivers of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, as follows: higher education, business environment, infrastructure, technology, communications, and media, population lifestyle, and demographic changes.
Abstract: This study aims at empirically investigating the drivers of sustainable economic growth in EU-28 countries. By means of panel data regression models, in the form of fixed and random effects models, alongside system generalized method of moments, we examine several drivers of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, as follows: higher education, business environment, infrastructure, technology, communications, and media, population lifestyle, and demographic changes. As regards higher education, the empirical results show that expenditure per student in higher education and traditional 18–22 year-old students are positively linked with sustainable economic growth, whereas science and technology graduates negatively influence real GDP growth. In terms of business environment, total expenditure on research and development and employment rates of recent graduates contributes to sustainable development, but corruption perceptions index revealed a negative association with economic growth. As well, the results provide support for a negative influence of infrastructure abreast technological measures on economic growth. Besides, we found a negative connection between old-age dependency ratio and sustainable economic growth.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to examine inter-temporal dynamics between Saudi Arabian real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and CO2 emissions levels for 1971-2010.
Abstract: This study employs the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to examine inter-temporal dynamics between Saudi Arabian real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and CO2 emissions levels for 1971–2010. The results show that the TVP-VAR model is of use for examining the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions. Moreover, an analysis of time-varying impulse responses of real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and CO2 emissions to structural shocks suggests that responses depend on the magnitude of structural volatilities of real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and CO2 emissions shocks. Indeed, we find that the observed high volatility of electricity consumption in the1970's and 1980's is likely to have persistent negative effects on oil GDP levels and CO2 emissions and positive effects on real non-oil GDP levels. The observed high and low volatility of oil GDP levels positively affects electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. However, highly volatile non oil-GDP levels are likely to affect electricity consumption and CO2 emissions positively. These findings imply that energy policies must consider high-and low-volatility regimes of real GDP, electricity and CO2 emissions shocks and time-varying patterns of the relationships between real GDP, electricity consumption and CO2 emissions.
TL;DR: The authors investigated the impact of movements in the real exchange rate on economic growth based on five-year average data for a panel of over 150 countries in the post Bretton Woods period.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the sources of economic growth and the nature of industrial structure change in China over the past decade, with a comparison to those in Russia, and found that the Chinese economy was concentrated relatively more in the manufacturing sector and relatively less in the service sector than the Russian economy.
TL;DR: In this article, the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995-2014 in the USA using the gravity framework were estimated based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries.
Abstract: This paper estimates the coefficients of the determinants of international tourism demand for the period 1995–2014 in the USA using the gravity framework. The analysis is based on a panel dataset of tourist arrivals among 14 countries using autoregressive distributed lag methods. The results show real gross domestic product, consumer price index, real exchange rate and certain specific events have a significant impact on international tourism demand. The income elasticity suggests that tourism is non-luxury goods, and prices and real exchange rate have negative relation to tourist arrivals. We also find that tourism transport infrastructure is a significant determinant of tourist arrivals into USA. This implies that infrastructure to reinforce taste formation is important to attract more international tourists to USA. In addition, results also suggest implications for public and private tourism authorities.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed an alternative and unified IV approach that simultaneously accounts for both settlement conditions and colonizer identity to estimate the potential causal impact of a broad cluster of economic institutions on log real GDP per capita for a sample of former colonies.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the dynamic causal links between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), combustible renewables and waste consumption, and maritime and rail transport in Tunisia spanning the period 1980-2011.
Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic causal links between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), combustible renewables and waste consumption, and maritime and rail transport in Tunisia spanning the period 1980–2011. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests are employed to examine the short- and long-run relationships between variables. The empirical results suggest a bidirectional short-run causality between CO 2 emissions and maritime transport, and a unidirectional causality running from real GDP, combustible renewables and waste consumption, rail transport to CO 2 emissions. The long-run estimates reveal that real GDP contributes to the decrease of CO 2 emissions, while combustible renewables and waste consumption and maritime and rail transport have a positive impact on emissions. Our policy recommendation is that Tunisia should use more combustible renewables and waste energy and increase the number of passenger's rail and maritime transport in order to motivate economic activities. However, the level of renewables energy required to reduce CO 2 emissions caused by transport sector is still very weak.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption, real GDP, trade and financial development for the GCC countries during the period 1980-2012 compared to the previous studies, their models are extended by including the financial development as macroeconomic factor The results indicate bidirectional causality in both short and long run between output and exports.
Abstract: This paper examines the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption, real GDP, trade and financial development for the GCC countries during the period 1980-2012 Compared to the previous studies, our models are extended by including the financial development as macroeconomic factor The results indicate bidirectional causality in both short and long-run between output and exports While, there is no evidence of causality in the short-run between output and renewable energy consumption or private sector credit and between exports and renewable energy consumption or private sector credit Moreover, the long-run estimated results indicate that there is evidence of a statistically significant impact of renewable energy consumption, exports and private sector credit on output Our finding indicates that renewable energy use and exports are able to increase the economic growth for the GCC countries Nevertheless, we find negative impact of the financial development on economic growth related to the deflationary monetary policy of the considered countries
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose two new empirical analyses aimed at verifying the existence of statistical relationships between changes in the Employment protection legislation index (EPL) on one side and variations of real GDP growth and wage share on the other side.