Showing papers on "Real gross domestic product published in 2019"
TL;DR: This article examined the causal relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in high-income and upper-middle-income countries using the simultaneous equations framework, with data from 1985 to 2011.
180 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of foreign trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on CO 2 emissions in Turkey were examined and an environmental Kuznets curve was found for both CO 2 measures.
177 citations
TL;DR: The authors used a number of different panel data estimators, including fixed effects, bias-corrected least squares dummy variables (LSDVC), generalised methods of moments (GMM), feasible generalised least squares (FGLS), and random coefficients (RC) to analyse the impact of real oil price volatility on the growth in real GDP for 17 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), over a 144-year time period from 1870 to 2013.
145 citations
TL;DR: It is found that the trade policy, monetary policy, and migration index exerts positive and significant impacts on carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run and immediate impact is negative and not significant.
124 citations
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TL;DR: This article studied the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables -defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms.
Abstract: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labour productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables - defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04oC per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01oC per annum, reduces the loss substantially to 1.07 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labour productivity and employment.
107 citations
TL;DR: A striking imbalance exists between government spending on mental health and the related disease burden in the Americas, which disproportionately affects low-income countries and is likely to result in undertreatment, increased avoidable disability and mortality, decreased national economic output, and increased household-level health spending.
Abstract: Summary Background Disorders affecting mental health are highly prevalent, can be disabling, and are associated with substantial premature mortality. Yet national health system responses are frequently under-resourced, inefficient, and ineffective, leading to an imbalance between disease burden and health expenditures. We estimated the disease burden in the Americas caused by disorders affecting mental health. This measure was adjusted to include mental, neurological, and behavioural disorders that are frequently not included in estimates of mental health burden. We propose a framework for assessing the imbalance between disease burden and health expenditures. Methods In this cross-sectional, ecological study, we extracted disaggregated disease burden data from the Global Health Data Exchange to produce country-level estimates for the proportion of total disease burden attributable to mental disorders, neurological disorders, substance use disorders, and self-harm (MNSS) in the Americas. We collated data from the WHO Assessment Instrument for Mental Health Systems and the WHO Mental Health Atlas on country-level mental health spending as a proportion of total government health expenditures, and of psychiatric hospital spending as a proportion of mental health expenditures. We used a metric capturing the imbalance between disease burden and mental health expenditures, and modelled the association between this imbalance and real (ie, adjusted for purchasing power parity) gross domestic product (GDP). Findings Data were collected from July 1, 2016, to March 1, 2017. MNSS comprised 19% of total disability-adjusted life-years in the Americas in 2015. Median spending on mental health was 2·4% (IQR 1·3–4·1) of government health spending, and median allocation to psychiatric hospitals was 80% (52–92). This spending represented an imbalance in the ratio between disease burden and efficiently allocated spending, ranging from 3:1 in Canada and the USA to 435:1 in Haiti, with a median of 32:1 (12–170). Mental health expenditure as a proportion of government health spending was positively associated with real GDP (β=0·68 [95% CI 0·24–1·13], p=0·0036), while the proportion allocated to psychiatric hospitals (β=–0·5 [–0·79 to −0·22], p=0·0012) and the imbalance in efficiently allocated spending (β=–1·38 [–1·97 to −0·78], p=0·0001) were both inversely associated with real GDP. All estimated coefficients were significantly different from zero at the 0·005 level. Interpretation A striking imbalance exists between government spending on mental health and the related disease burden in the Americas, which disproportionately affects low-income countries and is likely to result in undertreatment, increased avoidable disability and mortality, decreased national economic output, and increased household-level health spending. Funding Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University.
103 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper explored the linkage among CO2 emissions, real GDP, non-renewable and renewable energy, and tourism in panel of ten Northeast and Southeast Asian (NSEA-10) countries covering the period of 1995-2014.
98 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an ARDL model was applied to the analysis of annual data so as to determine co-integration on variables and the nature of the relationship for the period 1971-2014.
84 citations
TL;DR: The study reveals that energy consumption has significant positive impact on FDI, health, environment, and economic growth in China and suggests that policy makers need to chalk out effective policy for effective utilization of energy so as to encourage permissible economic growth and development in China.
Abstract: The role of energy cannot be passed over in the process of economic growth and development in any economy. China consumes colossal quantity of energy; thus, the central objectives of this study is to empirically evaluate the linkages among energy use, environment by CO2 emissions, human health by health expenditures, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, and real GDP per capita used for economic growth over the period of 1995-2016 for China. The nature of the data directed to employ the Canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) method for unknown parameter estimation. Four equations have estimated namely for FDI, health, environment, and economic growth. The result for China during the period under the study reveals that energy consumption has significant positive impact on FDI, health, environment, and economic growth. The study results suggest that policy makers need to chalk out effective policy for effective utilization of energy so as to encourage permissible economic growth and development in China.
70 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between social inclusion of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people and economic development was analyzed using a fixed effects regression approach and a newly-created dataset, the Global Index on Legal Recognition of Homosexual Orientation (GILRHO).
66 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the dynamic impacts of uncertainty in international crude oil prices on the Chinese economy and found that an increase in volatility in oil prices tends to reduce the real gross domestic product (GDP) and investment, which in turn encourages the Chinese government to stabilize the economy through expansionary fiscal and monetary policy.
TL;DR: The authors studied the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where productivity is affected by deviations of temperature and precipitation from their longterm moving average historical norms.
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the macroeconomic, market and technology impacts from an industry chain perspective under three different levels of environmental regulation of the steel industry, and the simulation results showed that real GDP and the outputs of the downstream sectors of a steel industry will suffer slightly, while the outputs and exports of steel industry itself will benefit from stringent environmental regulation over the long term.
TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth is examined in 12 countries in Europe, 10 of which make up the top natural gas vehicle (NGV) markets in Europe.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the importance of GDP per capita in realizing these targets and also the effects of the renewable energy sources (RES) share in electricity in the European Union Member State.
Abstract: Considering that the European Directive has imposed that at least 20% of the total energy should come from renewable energy sources (RES) by 2020 already and the specific targets for each European Union Member State, this paper attempts to assess the importance of GDP per capita in realizing these targets and also the effects of the RES share in electricity. Contrary to previous research, this paper does not consider the connection between economic growth and RES, but rather the potential connection between the share of RES in electricity and the real GDP per capita. The panel data models indicated to a positive, but very low impact of GDP per capita on the share of RES in electricity in the period of 2007–2017 in the case of the EU countries, except Luxembourg that has outlier values of GDP per capita. However, causality between the two variables was not identified. Some groups of countries were described according to these variables using cluster analysis. Future research should focus on the extension of this model by including other important variables such as RES potential available in the countries with specific geographical conditions.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the contribution of natural gas consumption in the real GDP of Saudi Arabia using long-span and recent time series data over the period 1968-2016 in a multivariate framework which incorporates total trade as additional variable.
TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between electricity consumption, real gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions in Zimbabwe was explored, and the authors set off by examinin-in...
Abstract: This study explores the relationship between electricity consumption, real gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions in Zimbabwe. To achieve this, the study set off by examinin...
TL;DR: This article conducted a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower-income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations, focusing attention on the long-run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-2014.
Abstract: The research assesses how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-2014. The employed economic growth dynamics areGross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita while ICT is measured by mobile phone penetration and internet penetration. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The study finds that both internet penetration and mobile phone penetration overwhelmingly modulate FDI to induce overall positive net effects on all three economic growth dynamics. Moreover, the positive net effects are consistently more apparent in internet-centric regressions compared to ?mobile phone?-oriented specifications. In the light of negative interactive effects, net effects are decomposed to provide thresholds at which ICT policy variables should be complemented with other policy initiatives in order to engender favorable outcomes on economic growth dynamics. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the causality between human capital, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Indonesia using vector error correction model and found that the causal evidence exists only for the model of human capital nor energy consumption.
Abstract: This study to investigate the causality between human capital, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Indonesia. The data used world development indicator has obtained from the World Bank database during 1985-2017. The analysis method used vector error correction model. The finding of this study, first, there is the validity of long-run balance causality exists only for the model of human capital nor energy consumption; second, neither CO2 emissions per capita nor real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita cause human capital in the long-run causality nor short-run; Third, there is no causal evidence from the human capital, CO2 emission per capita, and real GDP per capita to consumption energy per capita, but in the short-run, there is causal evidence between CO2 emission and energy consumption; fourth, there is no causal evidence from the human capital, consumption energy per capita, and real GDP per capita toward CO2 emission per capita, but human capital, consumption energy, and economic growth cause CO2 emission in the short-run; and the last finding, there is no causal evidence from the human capital, consumption energy per capita, and CO2 emission per capita to real GDP per capita, neither in the long-run causality and short-run.
TL;DR: The empirical evidence confirms the cointegration among the variables and EKC holds for Pakistan and suggests that Pakistan need to settle the economic agenda of the nation through the resolution of economic controversies, energy mix need to tilt toward clean and renewable energy, and rural-urban migration need to manage for better air, water, and living.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between CO2 emissions and its possible determinants and their direction of causality for Pakistan over the period of 1972 to 2017. The survey of literature guides us that the most frequently discussed factors are real GDP per capita, energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and financial development. Testing of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is the most common in environment literature so we also incorporated the real GDP per capita squared term in the model. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration with structural break and error correction method (ECM) are applied to the selected time series to investigate the long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and real GDP per capita, real GDP per capita squared term, energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and financial development. The empirical evidence confirms the cointegration among the variables and EKC holds for Pakistan support H1 of the study, which though contradictory to the previous studies conducted on Pakistan but all of previous work faces the exclusion bias and their findings were skewed. The findings also suggest that energy consumption and urbanization have a positive effect on CO2 emissions, supporting H2 and H3. However, H4 and H5 rejected as trade openness and financial development found positively significant. Moreover, bidirectional Granger causality was exists only between CO2 emissions and trade openness. The findings suggests that Pakistan need to settle the economic agenda of the nation through the resolution of economic controversies, energy mix need to tilt toward clean and renewable energy, and rural-urban migration need to manage for better air, water, and living.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the role of trade openness in influencing the relationship between oil abundance and economic growth and found that trade openness is a possible avenue to reduce the resource curse, in their sample, trade openness reduces oil curse by around 25%.
TL;DR: In this article, the causal-effect relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in selected African countries was examined, and the authors further estimated the trivariate impacts of telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth in the region.
TL;DR: The findings of heterogeneous panel causality suggest that there are bidirectional causalities; each other expect no causality from emissions to renewable energy.
Abstract: Based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, the aim of this paper is to examine the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita real GDP, per capita renewable energy consumption, and urbanization in a panel of five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) from 1992 to 2013. For robustness checking, three estimator techniques reveal no evidence of inverted U-shape EKC consistently. Moreover, renewable energy consumption plays negative impact on emissions, while urbanization plays positive, significantly. The findings of heterogeneous panel causality suggest that there are bidirectional causalities; each other expect no causality from emissions to renewable energy. Finally, some implications, such as developing a small renewable energy project and sustainable urbanization and strengthening in-regional and out-regional cooperation, are given in this region.
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on welfare or poverty reduction in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) economies was investigated.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to reinvestigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on welfare or poverty reduction in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) economies. We used FDI net inflows per capita and the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Index (HDI) as the principal variables ranging from 1990 to 2014. Our analyses confirm the positive and strongly significant relationship between FDI net inflows and poverty reduction in Asia. However, it indicates significant differences between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Generally, we find that FDI has a greater impact on welfare in SAARC countries than in ASEAN countries. Our results hold true for both HDI and real gross domestic product (GDP), and are shown to be robust using both panel and pool model specifications.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate both linear and nonlinear effects of inflation on income inequality and test the Kuznets hypothesis using panel data of 24 developed countries and 66 developing countries (LDCs) observed over the period of 1990-2014.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate both linear and/or nonlinear effects of inflation on income inequality and to test the Kuznets hypothesis using panel data of 24 developed countries (DCs) and 66 developing countries (LDCs) observed over the period of 1990–2014.,This paper explores the short- and long-run Granger causality relationship between inflation and income inequality using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality is confirmed implying as inflation rises income inequality decreases. Income inequality then reaches a minimum and then starts rising again. The findings of this paper show the existence of Kuznets “U-shaped” hypothesis between income inequality and real GDP per capita in DCs group, and the existence of Kuznets’ inverted “U-shaped” hypothesis for LDCs group.,The results indicate that there is no bi-directional Granger causality between inflation and income inequality in the short-run, but, there is bi-directional Granger causality in the long-run for both the DCs and LDCs group. The results help us to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing income inequality in both the DCs and LDCs group. As a policy implication, monetary policy is often aimed at controlling the annual rate of inflation in the long-run with a short-run focus on reducing output gaps and creating employment. However, managing inflation may have implications for income inequality.,This is original research paper which analyzes the “U-shaped” and inverted “U-shaped” paths of income inequality and real GDP per capita for large sample of two group countries including developed and developing countries, respectively. Also, this paper analyzes the nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality in two groups. Furthermore, this paper investigates the short- and long-run relationship between variables. The results are important for policy makers.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relationship between military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth at regional economic communities of African countries, using a balanced panel of 34 African countries spanning 1990-2015.
Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth at regional economic communities of African countries. With a balanced panel of 34 African countries spanning 1990–2015. The variables of interest for this study include military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product per capita serves as the proxy, while state fragility is measured by the state fragility index, and military expenditure by military expenditure as a percentage share of GDP. We utilise: panel causality and cointegration test; and the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques. The causality results suggest a feedback relationship among our variables of interest and this justified the use of GMM. Our analysis suggests that the effect of military expenditure on growth is negative at Africa level with significant regional economic level differences, and this effect is influenced in the presence of state fragility. This imply that there exist complementary effects between military expenditure and state fragility on growth. A cut in military expenditure and a consideration of other means of dealing with fragility issues as an alternative to joint regional militarised intervention of regional governments of African countries is recommended.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes Fit-in-Tariff, greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollutants modules to evaluate the impacts of different subsidy scenarios.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provided the first evidence that air pollution causes economy-wide reductions in market economic activity based on data for Europe, using an instrumental variables approach to identify the causal impact of air pollution on economic activity.
Abstract: This study provides the first evidence that air pollution causes economy-wide reductions in market economic activity based on data for Europe. The analysis combines satellite-based measures of air pollution with statistics on regional economic activity at the NUTS-3 level throughout the European Union over the period 2000-15. An instrumental variables approach based on thermal inversions is used to identify the causal impact of air pollution on economic activity. The estimates show that a 1μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration (or a 10% increase at the sample mean) causes a 0.8% reduction in real GDP that same year. Ninety-five per cent of this impact is due to reductions in output per worker, which can occur through greater absenteeism at work or reduced labour productivity. Therefore, the results suggest that public policies to reduce air pollution may contribute positively to economic growth. Indeed, the large economic benefits from pollution reduction uncovered in the study compare with relatively small abatement costs. Thus, more stringent air quality regulations could be warranted based solely on economic grounds, even ignoring the large benefits in terms of avoided mortality.
TL;DR: In this paper, the potential impacts of an emissions trading scheme with various revenue recycling options on Australian households were analyzed by employing a computable general equilibrium model and a social accounting matrix database, which showed that an emission permit price of A$20 per tonne of CO2-e would help Australia to achieve the 2020 emission reduction target.