Topic
Real gross domestic product
About: Real gross domestic product is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 8424 publications have been published within this topic receiving 188879 citations. The topic is also known as: real GDP.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twenty OECD countries over the period 1985-2005 within a multivariate framework was examined, where a panel cointegration and error correction model was employed to infer the causal relationship.
1,096 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the role of various explanations for the cyclical volatility of real economic activity and concluded that the moderation in volatility is attributable to a combination of improved policy, identifiable good luck in the form of productivity and commodity price shocks, and other unknown forms of...
Abstract: From 1960 to 1983, the standard deviation of annual growth rates in real GDP in the United States was 2.7%. From 1984 to 2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. This paper investigates this large drop in the cyclical volatility of real economic activity. The paper has two objectives. The first is to provide a comprehensive characterization of the decline in volatility using a large number of U.S. economic time series and a variety of methods designed to describe time-varying time-series processes. In so doing, the paper reviews the literature on the moderation and attempts to resolve some of its disagreements and discrepancies. The second objective is to provide new evidence on the quantitative importance of various explanations for this "great moderation." Taken together, we estimate that the moderation in volatility is attributable to a combination of improved policy (20-30%), identifiable good luck in the form of productivity and commodity price shocks (20-30%), and other unknown forms of ...
1,080 citations
TL;DR: For US annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 04-05 contemporaneously and 06-07 over 2 years if the change in defense spending was “permanent” (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 01-02 Since all estimated multipliers were significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: For US annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 04–05 contemporaneously and 06–07 over 2 years If the change in defense spending is “permanent” (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 01–02 Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 11 The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced-budget multiplier for defense spending is negative We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects
845 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration.
Abstract: This paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968–2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is −0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey.
823 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for China during 1971-2000 was examined and it was shown that real GDP and electricity consumption are cointegrated and there is unidirectional Granger causality running from electricity consumption to real GDP but not vice versa.
818 citations