Showing papers on "Rebound effect (conservation) published in 2011"

Rebound effects in German residential heating: Do ownership and income matter?

Abstract: In this paper, by using panel data and a fixed effects model, we estimate the direct rebound effect related to space heating in German residential households. The data used are from a representative repeated survey among some 11,000 households in Germany provided by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW Berlin). We find that for the size of the direct rebound effect, i.e. the amount of energy consumption “taken back” when energy efficiency rises, income and ownership matter significantly. The estimated rebound effects for the different household groups range between 12% for owners (income class “all”) and 49% for tenants (income class “low”). Tenants are found to have much higher rebound effects. Higherincome owner households have a slightly higher rebound than lower income households (14% vs. 13%), whereas for tenant households the outcome is reversed (31% vs. 49%). We conclude that energy rebound effects in the residential sector should be tackled in energy policy making in a differentiated way, and certainly not ignored in energy efficiency policies.

Rebound Effects in German Residential Heating: Do Ownership and Income Matter?

Abstract: In this paper, by using panel data and a fixed effects model, we estimate the direct rebound effect related to space heating in German residential households. The data used are from a representative repeated survey among some 11,000 households in Germany provided by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW Berlin). We find that for the size of the direct rebound effect, i.e. the amount of energy consumption “taken back” when energy efficiency rises, income and ownership matter significantly. The estimated rebound effects for the different household groups range between 12% for owners (income class “all”) and 49% for tenants (income class “low”). Tenants are found to have much higher rebound effects. Higher income owner households have a slightly higher rebound than lower income households (14% vs. 13%), whereas for tenant households the outcome is reversed (31% vs. 49%). We conclude that energy rebound effects in the residential sector should be tackled in energy policy making in a differentiated way, and certainly not ignored in energy efficiency policies.

Changing Vehicle Travel Price Sensitivities: The Rebounding Rebound Effect

Abstract: There is growing interest in transportation pricing reforms to help achieve objectives such as congestion reductions, traffic safety and emission reductions. Their effectiveness is affected by the price sensitivity of transport, that is, the degree that travelers respond to price changes, measured as elasticities (the percentage change in vehicle travel caused by a percentage change in price). Lower elasticities (price changes have little impact on travel activity) imply that price reforms are not very effective at achieving objectives, higher prices significantly harm consumers, and rebound effects (additional vehicle travel caused by increased fuel efficiency) are small so strategies that increase vehicle fuel efficiency are relatively effective at conserving fuel. Higher elasticities imply that price reforms are relatively effective, consumers are able to reduce vehicle travel, and rebound effects are relatively large. Some studies found that price elasticities declined during the last quarter of the Twentieth Century but recent evidence suggests that transport is becoming more price sensitive. This report discusses the concepts of price elasticities and rebound effects, reviews information on vehicle travel and fuel price elasticities, examines evidence of changing price elasticities, and discusses policy implications. Changing Vehicle Travel Price Sensitivities Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Comparing and combining energy saving policies: Will proposed residential sector policies meet french official targets?

Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of French policies for residential spaceheating energy consumption, both enacted (tax credits for the purchase of energy efficient durables, soft loans for retrofitting actions, stringent building codes) and anticipated (carbon tax, retrofitting obligation). It uses a hybrid energy-economy model incorporating specific features of energy conservation, notably the rebound effect and some "barriers" to energy efficiency such as split incentives and imperfect information. Forward-looking simulations show that (i) stand-alone policies improve the energy efficiency of the building stock but, with the exception of carbon tax, generate a rebound effect; (ii) interactions among instruments are roughly additive; (iii) a combination of all policies fails to meet Government conservation targets. Copyright ©2011 by the IAEE.

Analyzing Rebound Effects

Abstract: Improvements in resource efficiency1 are important for sustainable development but only if second round effects, i.e. economic responses to higher resource productivity – so called rebound effects – are not compensating or even overcompensating the potential savings of resources thus made possible. Are efficiency improvements in the use of natural resources the key for a sustainable development, are they the solution to environmental problems, or will rebound effects compensate or even overcompensate potential savings, will they fire back? The attractiveness of efficiency improvements, of technological solutions to environmental problems is obvious since they allow continuing with “business as usual” avoiding other measures which may be perceived as welfare reductions. But if rebound effects are very high, efficiency strategies cannot contribute substantially to sustainable development but may – as some authors argue – be the cause of environmental problems rather than the solution.

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effect: Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy?

Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the theoric and empirical literature about “rebound effect”. This study summarizes energy efficiency policy and programs in general and in Turkey. Also it gives defination of the “rebound effect” concept. The rebound effect is related to consumer’s tendency to consume more energy due to economic benefit from efficiency improvement. The ‘rebound effect’ is the focus of a long-running dispute of energy economics but it is very new concept in the most developing countries. In literature according to some economist gains in energy efficiency will also reduce the real per unit price of energy services and hence the consumption of energy will rise and partially offset the initial reduction in the usage of energy sources. However for others size of the rebound effect is too small to take attention. The empirical literature shows that the size of rebound effect can change from country to country and sector to sector.

2010,16: Consumer needs and their satiation properties as drivers of the rebound effect : the case of energy-efficient washing machines

Abstract: The possibility of the "rebound effect" to technological progress has triggered a debate in energy economics concerning the usefulness of the promotion of efficiency progress. Until now, a multitude of empirical evidence has been gathered so to assess the magnitude of the effect in the first place. Progress in theoretical research has been rather modest, however. In this paper, we argue for a broadening of the theoretical basis beyond neoclassical consumer theory. We more specifically suggest turning toward consumption theories that deal with consumer needs and learning processes. We postulate that the rebound effect to energy efficiency progress is a special case of behavioral reactions to technological change more in general. Our central hypothesis is that rebound effects will only occur as long as the consumer needs appealed to by the product are not yet satiated. We exemplarily illustrate how to apply these arguments for the case of energyefficient washing machines.

Re-Identifying the Rebound – What About Asymmetry?

Abstract: Rebound effects measure the behaviorally induced off set in the reduction of energy consumption following efficiency improvements. Using panel estimation methods and household travel diary data collected in Germany between 1997 and 2009, this study identifies the rebound effect in private transport by allowing for the possibility that fuel price elasticities – from which rebound effects can be derived – are asymmetric. This approach rests on evidence that has emerged from the empirical literature suggesting that the response in individual travel demand to price increases is stronger than to decreases. Such an asymmetric response would necessitate reference to the fuel price elasticity derived from price decreases in order to identify the rebound effect, as the rebound occurs in response to a decrease in unit cost for car travel due to improved fuel efficiency. While we fail to reject the hypothesis that the magnitude of the response to a price increase is equal to that of a price decrease, our rebound effect estimate for single-vehicle households of 58% is in line with a recent German study by Frondel, Peters, and Vance (2008).

Estimates of Statewide and Nationwide Carbon Dioxide Emission Reductions and Their Costs From Cash for Clunkers

Abstract: Vehicle scrappage programs which provide private owners with inducements to scrap their older, less-fuel efficient vehicles offer the promise to both increase consumer spending on private vehicles and reduce greenhouse gas emissions The Cash for Clunkers program enacted in 2009 is the first nationwide incarnation of such a program in the United States where past programs have been confined to specific regions and states While measuring the success of such programs in terms of sales is straightforward, measuring their success in terms of greenhouse gas emission reductions is not Much of the difficulty in estimating these reductions relates to projecting how private vehicle owners will use their newer, more fuel efficient vehicles Using cross-sectional data on how the trade-in vehicles were typically used as well as projected usage increases due to the rebound effect (improvements in fuel efficiency cause more usage), this study estimates emission reductions and their costs for two different vehicle usage scenarios Estimates from the two scenarios indicate that the nationwide effects of the Cash for Clunkers program on carbon dioxide emissions are modest, at best Exploration of statewide carbon dioxide emission reductions and costs from Cash for Clunkers indicates that, as suggested by the literature, the environmental benefits of vehicle scrappage programs are limited

Participation incentives, rebound effects and the cost- effectiveness of rebates for water-efficient appliances

Abstract: Rebate programs for retrofitting residential properties with water efficient appliances have become a common conservation policy tool for local municipalities. Engineering estimates of water savings from rebate programs can be systematically biased because they assume all subsidized appliance replacements would not have occurred in the absence of the subsidy and because they fail to account for potential rebound effects. We partner with a water utility in North Carolina to develop a unique database that combines water use data over a three-year period for all households that participated in the utility’s high efficiency toilet (HET) rebate program, water use data for a matched sample of neighbors, and a survey of rebate participants. We evaluate whether rebates are a costeffective means for water utilities to promote water conservation accounting for both selection and rebound effects. Difference-in-differences estimators indicate no evidence of a rebound effect with HET installation. However, we find that water savings attributable to the rebate program are less than one-half the actual savings associated with an HET installation. Costs of saving water through toilet replacements are estimated to be between $5.50 and $11.00 per 1,000 gallons which compares favorably to costs of raw water through purchasing or expansion which are between $7.00-$11.00 per 1,000 gallons.

Income dependent direct and indirect rebound effects from ’green’ consumption choices in Australia

Abstract: Changing household behaviour is often encouraged as a means of reducing energy demand and subsequently greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The direct and indirect rebound effects from cost-saving ‘green’ household consumption choices were estimated using Australian data. Rebound effects from cost-saving 'green' consumption choices are modelled as income effects, allowing for variation with households income level. Cases examined are: reduced vehicle use, reduced electricity use, the adoption of energy efficient vehicles, and the adoption of energy efficient electrical lighting. Four econometric estimation models are utilised to estimate income effects, and the before and after expenditure patterns are matched with life-cycle assessment (LCA) estimates of the embodied GHG of each expenditure category. Direct and indirect rebound effects alone are estimated at around 10% for household electricity conservation, and for reduced vehicle fuel consumption around 20%, at the median household income level. Direct rebound effects are larger for low-income households; however, indirect effects are larger for higher income households. The scale of the effect estimated, and the variation with household incomes, is attributed to LCA methodologies. These results should be interpreted as the minimum rebound effect, with greater rebound effects, and decreased effectiveness of household ‘green’ consumption, expected in reality.

Dealing with Rebound Effects

Abstract: Energy efficiency has failed to deliver its promised savings. This is mainly because of the rebound effect. Whilst there has been some energy savings on the micro level (rebound is less than 100%), on the macro level energy use has continued to increase despite large increases in energy efficiency. This is because we choose to convert the financial savings from energy efficiency into greater consumption. However energy efficiency still has an important role, in that we can use its financial gains to fund renewable energy sources. This requires an integrated approach, whereby consumers are sold a package of efficiency and domestic renewable energy measures, often termed micro-generation. This paper first outlines the rebound effect and an anthropological approach to energy consumption that focuses on values of comfort, convenience and cleanliness as the drivers for consumer energy demand. It then presents ongoing research from the Open University on the feasibility and popularity of low-carbon living in the UK. It concludes that the emphasis should be on low carbon life-styles for communities rather low-carbon houses for individuals.

Rebound Effects Analysis of Electricity Efficiency Improvements in Iran: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Abstract: Efficiency improvement in electricity uses leads to a decrease in its demand and consequently a decline in the market price of electricity. It is expected that the induced increase in electricity demand due to this price effect offsets part of the primary reduction in consumption, a phenomenon known as "Rebound Effects". Hence, ignorance of these effects in policymaking causes overestimation of the benefits of efficiency improvement policies. This paper aims to determine the parameters that influence the magnitude of the rebound effect theoretically and to evaluate the consequences of exogenous and costless efficiency improvement in electricity use in the context of a computable general equilibrium model. This model is calibrated using Micro Consistent Matrix (MCM) constructed based on 2001 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran assuming a small open economy. We found that electricity efficiency improvement will result in rebound effects of 14.2%. This means that 14.2% of the primary decrease in demand is offset by rebound effects. According to our results, there are significant differences between rebound effects across electricity consuming sectors. Oil and Gas sector demonstrates the highest rebound effects. Sensitivity analysis to test the response of rebounds to the specification of elasticity of substitution between electricity and fossil fuels shows that economy-wide rebound effects changes from 11.6% to 14.2% due to changes in elasticity of substitution from 0.1 to 0.9.

Rebound Effects from Increased Efficiency in the Use of Energy by UK Households

Abstract: In this paper, we use CGE modelling techniques to identify the impact on energy use of an improvement in energy efficiency in the household sector. The main findings are that 1) when the price of energy is measured in natural units, the increase in efficiency yields only to a modification of tastes, changing as a result, the composition of household consumption; 2) when households internalize efficiency, the improvement in energy efficiency reduces the price of energy in efficiency units, providing a source of improved competitiveness as the nominal wage and the price level both fall; 3) the short-run rebound can be greater than the long run rebound if the household demand elasticity is the same for both time frames, however, the short run rebound is always lower than in the long-run if the demand for energy is relatively more elastic in the long-run; 4) the introduction of habit formation changes the composition of household consumption, modifying the magnitude of the household rebound only in the short-run. In this period, household and economy wide rebound are lowest for external habit formation and highest when consumers’ preferences are defined using a conventional utility function.

The Long Run Demand for Lighting: Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development

Abstract: The provision of artificial light was revolutionised by a series of discontinuous innovations in lighting appliances, fuels, infrastructures and institutions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In Britain, the real price of lighting fell dramatically (3,000-fold between 1800 and 2000) and quality rose. Along with rises in real income and population, these developments meant that total consumption of lighting was 40,000 times greater by2000 than in 1800. The paper presents estimates of the income and price elasticities of demand for lighting services over the past three hundred years, and explores how they evolved. Income and price elasticities increased dramatically (to 3.5 and -1.7, respectively) between the 1840s and the 1890s and fell rapidly in the twentieth century. Even in the twentieth century and at the beginning of the twenty-first century, rebound effects in the lighting market still appear to be potentially important. This paper provides a first case study of the long run effects of socio-economic change and technological innovation on the consumption of energy services in the UK. We suggest that understanding the evolution of the demand for energy services and the factors that influence it contributes to a better understanding of future energy uses and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

The impact of physical rebound effects on the heat losses in a retrofitted dwelling

Abstract: In Flanders, as in many European regions, a calculation method has been developed in the framework of the EPBD-directive to evaluate the energy performance of newly erected dwellings. Although not intended to, this method is now more and more used to predict energy savings when retrofitting existing, badly insulated dwellings. In this calculation method the dwelling is considered as a single zone at a fixed indoor temperature of 18 °C. This paper investigates whether these assumptions are appropriate when calculating energy savings. On the one hand, although this indoor temperature gives a fairly good estimation for new dwellings, it cannot reflect the indoor climate in old, badly insulated dwellings where dwelling mean indoor temperatures can be considerably lower than 18 °C. Energy consumptions before retrofit are thus easily overestimated. On the other hand plays the physical rebound effect. When insulating the building envelope of a poorly insulated dwelling, the indoor temperature will rise, even if the heating pattern of the inhabitants remains unchanged. Using a fixed temperature for all insulation levels cannot incorporate this physical rebound, leading to inaccurate predictions of energy savings. In this paper the impact of a fixed indoor temperature of 18 °C on the net energy demand is analysed by simulations on an existing terraced house with different insulation levels. The comparison is made with a more realistic heating pattern where only part of the dwelling is heated intermittently. The simulations reveal a physical rebound and the need for a correlation between indoor temperature and insulation level.

How to Reduce the Rebound Effect

Abstract: There are different definitions of the rebound effect that depend on the definition of resource efficiency or energy efficiency and on the boundaries drawn (cf., e.g., Hertwich 2005; Schettkat 2009). For the purpose of this paper, the following definition is applied: If the use of an environmentally, socially or economically more efficient good (e.g., an infrastructure that enables an increase in resource efficiency or allows people to save time, or a product or service that is resource-efficient and saves costs of consumers) induces effects that partly or even fully compensate the ecological, social or economic efficiency gains achieved by this good, this can be called a rebound effect. So there is a link between using the good and the side effects observed. In other words, general economic innovation and growth effects should not be called rebound effects following this definition.

Comparing and combining energy saving policies : Will proposed residential sector policies meet French official targets ?

Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of French policies for residential space-heating energy consumption, both enacted (tax credits for the purchase of energy efficient durables, soft loans for retrofitting actions, stringent building codes) and anticipated (carbon tax, retrofitting obligation). It uses a hybrid energy-economy model incorporating specific features of energy conservation, notably the rebound effect and some "barriers" to energy efficiency such as split incentives and imperfect information. Forward-looking simulations show that (i) stand-alone policies improve the energy efficiency of the building stock but, with the exception of carbon tax, generate a rebound effect ; (ii) interactions among instruments are roughly additive ; (iii) a combination of all policies fails to meet Government conservation targets.

Heat pumps and user practices – energy reductions or increased comfort?

Abstract: This paper deals with individual air-to-air heat pumps in dwellings and summerhouses and the question of to what extent they deliver actual savings in energy consumption . Results show that 40% of the expected reduction in electricity consumption is transferred into increased comfort in the homes, including increased heating areas, keeping a higher temperature and a longer heating season and using the heat pump for air-conditioning. Data include electricity consumption in 185 households before and after installation of heat pumps together with survey results of 480 households. Furthermore 12 households are selected for in-depth analysis including technical inspection and qualitative interviewing. Especially for summerhouses results indicate that there on average is no reduction in electricity consumption, as energy efficiency is outbalanced by increased comfort. These results have to be taken into account when making long term energy planning for a sustainable energy system. INTRODUCTION The sale of air-to air heat pumps has been quite high, notably in Norway where there are sold some hundred thousand [1] but also in Sweden and France expanding sales figures of heat pumps are reported. In Sweden domestic heat pump sale rose from approximately 20000 to 80000 per year between 2006 and 2007 and in France from approximately 50000 to 70000 per year [2]. Studies from several different European countries has pointed out that there is good economical reason for the consumers to install air-to-air heat pumps [3, 4, 5]. The question of what role air-to-air heat pumps play in a future sustainable energy system have to be discussed together with other technical changes of the whole energy system including to what extent electricity is produced by renewable energy [6,7] and the energy renovation of the building stock [6]. Replacing direct electric heating with air-to-air heat pumps are, however, always more energy efficient because heat pumps can provide 2-5 times more heat than the electricity they use as driving force [3]. In a scenario for future 100% renewable energy systems in Denmark * Corresponding author * The project team included besides the authors also Troels Fjorbak Larsen, IT Energy; Erik Gudbjerg and Lisbeth Rasmussen, Lokalenergi and Preben Munter, Seas-nve. † The initial project was financed by Elforsk.dk and further analysis for this article was related to the Research Centre for Zero Energy Buildings (http://www.zeb.aau.dk). individual heat pumps are thus also included for areas not covered by district heating [9]. From a socio-technical point of view it can, however, be expected that the full technical potential for energy efficiency will not be met because of changes in user practices towards still higher expectations and norms of comfort [1] as is also known from studies of other types of households’ technologies [10]. Within a techno-economic perspective a corresponding phenomenon is known as the rebound effect focusing on how the economic gains that households get from implementing more efficient technologies will be used to increase consumption in other areas or within the same area resulting in higher standards and thus increased energy consumption. There has been a debate about the size of the rebound effect within the household sector and a recent review suggest a rebound effect on 20% meaning that 20% of the energy savings gained from efficient technologies within the household sector are transformed into increased energy consumption and thus not realised as energy savings [11, 12]. The purpose of the study presented in this paper was to analyse to what extent the potential reduction from installation of air-to-air heat pumps are realised or transformed into increased consumption. Furthermore, it was to go more into detail in explaining within which areas more precisely the increases in comfort is seen and to understand in more sociological terms why and how these changes occur. Today, 8% of houses in Denmark [13] and 84% of summerhouses are heated by direct electric heating [14]. The majority of these are not placed near city centres and thus reachable by district heating and the most relevant future heating supply for these homes is thus individual heat pumps [9]. As these houses have not installed central heating based on water-borne systems, the economically most attractive choice will most often be to install air-to-air heat pumps. Another argument for looking at air-to-air heat pumps in relation to changes in comfort norms is that these can easily be used for air-conditioning as well. Air-conditioning has until now not been normal in Danish households, however, having available technologies installed in the home might contribute to change this. In the following, we will first describe the methods of the study and then, in the main part of the paper, present findings and analysis for permanently occupied dwellings and summerhouse respectively. In the conclusion, results are discussed in relation to the implications for interaction between heating technologies and renewable energy systems.

Energy Demand Management

Abstract: This chapter introduces the concepts related to management of energy demand and their economic analysis. It focuses on the demand management options and the economic decision making involved in demand management. It also introduces the economic meaning of energy efficiency and presents the debate related to energy saving. Load management, energy efficiency and energy saving are discussed in this chapter. The chapter also introduces a set of evaluation tests that are used to evaluate demand management programmes. Finally, the concept of rebound effect and the link between energy and other factors of production are presented.

The Complete Decomposition Analysis on Energy Rebound Effect in Shanghai From 1978 to 2009

Abstract: This paper uses the complete decomposition model to analyze the multifactor of energy consumption's rebound effect based on the energy consumption data of Shanghai from 1978-2009The result indicates that the scale effect is the most important factor to increase energy consumption and its effect is stronger than the function of intensity effect to reduce the energy consumptionSo we can find out that although the energy intensity decreases,total energy consumption increasesIn order to decrease energy consumption,we should optimize industrial structure,and the more important thing is controlling economic scale

Empirically Research on the Energy Rebound Effect——Taking the Hubei Province Data for Example

Abstract: The contribution of technical progress to economic growth was quantified based on data envelopment analysis.The model of the rebound effect of energy resource was constructed.This paper empirically examines the effect of technical progress to the rebound effect of energy resource,based on the data in Hubei during the period from 1980 to 2007.It is concluded from the empirical research that the influence from technical progress to energy efficiency is a dynamic process;rebound effect fluctuates in different periods in Hubei and it shows the gradually descending trend.Because of the rebound effect,we will not rely on technical progress to increase energy efficiency.We should combine the energy price reform,industrial structure adjustment and government regulation to realize the target of energy saving and emission reduction.

The Impact of Increased Efficiency in the Transport Sectors‟ Energy Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for the Botswana Economy

Abstract: Energy efficiency is viewed as a tool for achieving both sustainable development and environmental sustainability in Botswana and world-wide. This is premised on the standard wisdom that energy-augmenting technical progress reduces aggregate energy consumption. In the energy economics literature, there is disagreement as to whether the beneficial effect of energy efficiency stimulus on energy consumption is partially or wholly counteracted by the negative effect of the response of the economic system to a fall in the relative price of energy services caused by an energy efficiency shock. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of energy-economy interactions for Botswana to explore the consequences of energy efficiency enhancement in the transport sectors. These sectors are among those targeted to be energy-efficient by 2016 and are the largest energy-consumers. The evidence shows that efficiency improvement in the transport sectors‟ energy use stimulates economic activity and results in modest conservation of both total energy and petroleum, but increases non-petroleum use, implying that there are large rebound effects on total energy and petroleum consumption of 95 percent and 91 percent, respectively, and a backfire effect of 101 percent for non-petroleum consumption. The results do not undermine a policy of inreasing energy efficiency, but underscore that government needs to design a package of energy policies if it wishes to achieve energy conservation that will substantially reduce carbon emissions. Keywords: Energy efficiency, Rebound effect, Backfire, Transport energy demand, CGE Models, Conservation, Botswana