Renewal theory

About: Renewal theory is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2381 publications have been published within this topic receiving 54908 citations.

On discrete time Prabhakar-generalized fractional Poisson processes and related stochastic dynamics

Abstract: Recently the so-called Prabhakar generalization of the fractional Poisson counting process attracted much interest for his flexibility to adapt to real world situations. In this renewal process the waiting times between events are IID continuous random variables. In the present paper we analyze discrete-time counterparts: Renewal processes with integer IID interarrival times which converge in well-scaled continuous-time limits to the Prabhakar-generalized fractional Poisson process. These processes exhibit non-Markovian features and long-time memory effects. We recover for special choices of parameters the discrete-time versions of classical cases, such as the fractional Bernoulli process and the standard Bernoulli process as discrete-time approximations of the fractional Poisson and the standard Poisson process, respectively. We derive difference equations of generalized fractional type that govern these discrete time-processes where in well-scaled continuous-time limits known evolution equations of generalized fractional Prabhakar type are recovered. We also develop in Montroll–Weiss fashion the “Prabhakar Discrete-time random walk (DTRW)” as a random walk on a graph time-changed with a discrete-time version of Prabhakar renewal process. We derive the generalized fractional discrete-time Kolmogorov–Feller difference equations governing the resulting stochastic motion. Prabhakar-discrete-time processes open a promising field capturing several aspects in the dynamics of complex systems.

Further monotonicity properties of renewal processes

Abstract: In a discrete-time renewal process {Nk, k =0, 1, *}, let Zk and Ak be the forward recurrence time and the renewal age, respectively, at time k. In this paper, we prove that if the inter-renewal time distribution is discrete DFR (decreasing failure rate) then both {Ak, k=0, 1,- } and {Zk, k=0, 1, --} are monotonically nondecreasing in k in hazard rate ordering. Since the results can be transferred to the continuous-time case, and since the hazard rate ordering is stronger than the ordinary stochastic ordering, our results strengthen the corresponding results of Brown (1980). A sufficient condition for {Nk+, - Nk, k =0, 1, -} to be nonincreasing in k in hazard rate ordering as well as some sufficient conditions for the opposite monotonicity results are given. Finally, Brown's conjecture that DFR is necessary for concavity of the renewal function in the continuous-time case is discussed.

The trend-renewal process: a useful model for medical recurrence data

Abstract: Time-to-event data analysis has a long tradition in applied statistics. Many models have been developed for data where each subject or observation unit experiences at most one event during its life. In contrast, in some applications, the subjects may experience more than one event. Recurrent events appear in science, medicine, economy, and technology. Often the events are followed by a repair action in reliability or a treatment in life science. A model to deal with recurrent event times for incomplete repair of technical systems is the trend-renewal process. It is composed of a trend and a renewal component. In the present paper, we use a Weibull process for both of these components. The model is extended to include a Cox type covariate term to account for observed heterogeneity. A further extension includes random effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. We fit the suggested version of the trend-renewal process to a data set of hospital readmission times of colon cancer patients to illustrate the method for application to clinical data.