Showing papers on "Solar constant published in 1990"

An Empirical Model of Total Solar Irradiance Variation Between 1874 and 1988

Abstract: An empirical model of variations in the total solar irradiance caused by observed changes in photospheric magnetic activity between 1874 and 1988 is presented. The model provides a remarkably good representation of the irradiance variations observed by satellite-borne radiometers between 1980 and 1988. It suggests that the mean total irradiance has been rising steadily since about 1945, with the largest peak so far at about 1980 and another large peak expected during the current solar cycle 22. But it is doubtful whether even this rise can contribute significantly to global warming, unless the temperature increase of about 0.02°C that it produces in current energy balance models seriously underestimates the sensitivity of climate to solar irradiance changes.

Stellar Activity and Brightness Variations: A Glimpse at the Sun's History.

Abstract: Radiometric measurements during the past decade from the Solar Maximum Mission and Nimbus 7 satellites have shown that the total solar irradiance varies in step with the sun's 11-year magnetic activity cycle. Stellar observations from the Lowell and Mount Wilson observatories now confirm and elaborate this discovery. These measurements show that older stars similar to the sun tend to become brighter as their magnetic activity level increases, just as the sun does during its 11-year activity cycle. Younger stars, however, tend to become fainter as their magnetic activity level increases. This contrasting behavior suggests that the balance between the competing phenomena that influence solar brightness variability has shifted during the sun's lifetime.

Sunspot Photometry and the Total Solar Irradiance Deficit Measured in 1980 BY ACRIM

Abstract: Until now a simple Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) model was used (e.g. Willsonet al., 1981) to describe the contribution of sunspots to the solar irradiance deficit measurement by ACRIM. In this work we replace this model by a photometry of sunspot pictures for the period of 19 August to 4 September, 1980 taking into account the individual features, like lightbridges or umbral dots, of each spot. The main results of this preliminary analysis are: (1) theA u/A p ratios and alsos the α values vary in a wide range and are by no means constant as in the PSI model; (2) the general trend of the irradiance deficit from our analysis agrees well with the ACRIM measurements; (3) on some days there are differences of more than 50% between the deficits derived from our measurements and from the PSI model.

A study of abrupt climate change in a simple nonlinear climate model

Abstract: We use a seasonal energy balance climate model to study the behavior of the snowline cycle as a function of external parameters such as the solar constant. Our studies are confined in this study to cases with zonally symmetric land-sea distributions (bands or caps of land). The model is nonlinear in that the seasonally varying snow/sea ice line modifies the energy receipt through its different albedo from open land or water. The repeating steady-state seasonal cycle of the model is solved by a truncated Fourier series in time. This method is several thousand times faster than a time stepping approach. The results are interesting in that a number of bifurcations in the snowline behavior are found and studied for various geographies. Polar land caps and land bands positioned near the poles exhibit a variety of discontinuous summer snow cover behaviors (abrupt transitions as a parameter such as solar constant is slowly varied), which may be relevant to the inception and decay of continental ice sheets.

The maximum entropy production principle in climate models : application to the faint young sun paradox

Abstract: Current theories of stellar evolution imply that the solar luminosity was 25-30% less than at present during early phases of the Earth's history. the response of the global annual climate to changes of the solar input is examined using the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle and a zonal energy balance model including ice-albedo feedback. It is shown that this formulation reproduces satisfactorily the present meridional heat flux and latitudinal temperature distributions. It is found that the model predicts that the efficiency of the meridional heat transport decreases for low values of the solar constant. Consequently, if the solar irradiance is lowered, a progressive development of the polar caps and a decrease of the global surface temperature are obtained without major irreversibility in the system. A comparison with a similar model including diffusive heat transport formalism shows that the value of the critical solar luminosity causing a global glaciation is decreased when the meridional heat fluxes are determined by the MEP principle.

Solar constant secular changes

Abstract: A recent model for solar constant secular changes is used to calculate a 'proxy' solar constant for: (1) the past four centuries, based upon the sunspot record, (2) the past nine centuries, based upon C-14 observations and their relation to solar activity, and (3) the next decade, based upon a dynamo theory model for the solar cycle. The proxy solar constant data is tabulated as it may be useful for climate modelers studying global climate changes.

Modelling the climatic response to solar variability.

Abstract: The Sun, the primary energy source driving the climate system, is known to vary in time both in total irradiance and in spectral composition in the ultraviolet. According to solar interior evolution models, the solar luminosity has increased steadily by 25-30% over the past 4 x 10 9 years. Periodic variations are also suspected with characteristic timescales of 11 or 22 years, 80-90 years and possibly longer periods. The ultraviolet radiation below 300 nm also exhibits significant changes over the 27-day solar rotation period as well as the 11-year solar cycle. Variations in the solar constant are expected to produce both direct and indirect (feedback) perturbations in the global surface temperature. A hierarchy of zero- to three-dimensional models have been used to study the complex couplings involved by such effects. The response of a zonally averaged model to possible total irradiance changes associated with the Gleissberg cycle is investigated and compared with measurements of the sea-surface temperature made since 1860. Changes in the solar ultraviolet irradiance modulate the amount and distribution of atmospheric ozone, which is predicted to change by several percent in the stratosphere. These perturbations directly affect the middle atmospheric thermal structure, but may also generate indirect effects that could possibly account for some short-term geophysical signatures of solar activity. The cycle-modulated energetic particle interaction with the middle atmosphere is also a possible source of global climatic perturbations.

Variations of the solar activity and irradiance, and their influence on the flooding of the river Nile

Abstract: Autocorrelation and power spectra analysis are carried out for different lengths of time series Of the following data:(l) Solar activity (sunspot, faculae and radio flux on 2800 MHz);(2) Irradiance (solar Constant measured at earth's surface and by the artificial satellite (Nimbus- 7); (3) River Nile flood (old water level, maximum flood level, and the difference between the both levels) measured at Cairo. The results showing remarkable similarity between the power spectra of solar activity, irradiance (solar constant) and river Nile flood. We conclude that any short or long-term variations in the solar activity lead to similar variations in the solar constant. Also, annual and secular variations of solar activity yield information’s on the suspected annual and secular variations of the river Nile flood.

Solar thermal vacuum tests of Magellan spacecraft

Abstract: The Magellen solar/thermal/vacuum test involved a number of unique requirements and approaches Because of the need to operate in orbit around Venus, the solar intensity requirement ranged up to 23 suns or Earth equivalent solar constants Extensive modification to the solar simulator portion of the test facility were required to achieve this solar intensity Venus albedo and infrared emission were simulated using temperature controlled movable louver panels to allow the spacecraft to view either a selectable temperature black heat source with closed louvers, or the chamber coldwall behind open louvers The test conditions included widely varying solar intensities, multiple sun angles, alternate hardware configurations, steady state and transient cases, and cruise and orbital power profiles Margin testing was also performed, wherein supplemental heaters were mounted to internal thermal blankets to verify spacecraft performance at higher than expected temperatures The test was successful, uncovering some spacecraft anomalies and verifying the thermal design The test support equipment experienced some anomalous behavior and a significant failure during the test

Irradiance Variability of the Sun

Abstract: Direct measurements of the solar constant--the total irradiance at mean Sun-Earth distance--during the last ten years from satellites show variations over time scales from minutes to years and decades. At high frequencies the spectral power is determined by granulation, super- and mesogranulation. In the 5-minute range, moreover, it is dominated by power from the solar p-mode oscillations. Their power and frequencies change with time, yielding information about changes in the convection zone. During periods of several hours, the power is steadily increasing and may be partly due to solar gravity modes. The most important variance is in the range from days to several months and is related to the photospheric features of solar activity, decrease of the irradiance during the appearance of sunspots, and increasing by faculae and the magnetic network. Long-term modulation by the 11-year activity cycle are observed conclusively with the irradiance being higher during solar maximum. All these variations can be explained--at least qualitatively--by their manifestation on the photosphere. For the long-term changes, the simultaneous changes of the frequencies of solar p-mode oscillations suggest a more global origin of the variations. Indeed, it seems that the observed irradiance modulation is a true luminosity change with the magnetic cycle of the Sun.

Future Prospects of Helioseismology from Space

Abstract: In view of their costs, space-borne instruments should be considered only for their exclusive capabilities in helio-and asteroseismology. Space-borne high resolution spectrometers and photometers operate free of atmospheric pertubations, can be put on special orbits offering continuous (uninterrupted) observations and therefore offer the best opportunity for high signal-over-noise ratio. The recent data obtained on board the Phobos-2 mission clearly evidences this fact. The ESA-NASA SOHO observatory will be the first mission of its kind carrying a comprehensive set of instruments to analyse the gravity and acoustic modes of solar oscillations over an uninterrupted period of at least 2 years. Projects also exist to observe oscillations of the solar diameter. Long term observation of the solar constant may provide a clue to the understanding of the origins of the solar cycle. Simultaneous out of eliptic measurements may nicely complement our data set and offer unambiguous views on the asymmetries of the solar interior. Space observations are probably the only means to get access to the deep solar interior through the detections of g modes. They offer the only prospect in the exploitation of asteroseismology over a larger number of stars.

Testing the Sun-climate Connection with Paleoclimate Data

Abstract: If there is a significant sun-climate connection, it should be detectable in high-resolution paleoclimate records. Of particular interest is the last few thousand years, where we have both indices of solar variability (C-14 and Be-10) and climate variations (alpine glaciers, tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.). Although there are a few exceptions, statistical analyses of solar and climate records generally indicates a flickering relationship between the two -- sometimes it seems to be present, sometimes not. The most repeatable solar climate periods occur at approx. 120 and approx. 56 yrs, although there is also evidence for approx. 420 and approx. 200 yrs. power in some records. However, coherence between solar and climate spectra is usually low, and occurrence of solar spectra in climate records is sometimes dependent on choice of analysis program. These results suggest in general a relatively weak sun-climate link on time scales of decades to centuries. This conclusion is consistent with previous studies and with the observation that inferred climate fluctuations of 1.0 to 1.5 C on this time scale would require solar constant variations of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 percent. This change in forcing is almost an order of magnitude greater than observed changes over the last solar cycle and appears to be on the far-outer limit of acceptable changes for a Maunder Minimum-type event.

The Earth’s climate and variability of the Sun over recent millennia: geophysical, astronomical and archaeological aspects - Introductory remarks

Abstract: The search for periodic or quasi-periodic variations in the solar constant through the analysis of climatic and meterological data has proved elusive. The reason is evident: the atmosphere is a wet gas with much energy stored as latent heat and is in complex interaction dynamically and thermally with the oceans and land areas. This confronts the investigator with a hydrodynamic problem of awesome difficulty and has hitherto frustrated attempts at weather prediction over more than a few days. The instabilities, what we call the weather, cause not only day-to-day but also year-to-year variations so great that many experts have concluded that these would have completely masked possible small changes due to fluctuations of the energy input from the Sun. Yet, as the seasonal changes of solar energy falling on each hemisphere result in such obvious effects, it should not be impossible to detect in the climatic records much smaller changes in the total global input of heat energy into the atmosphere, especially if these are cyclical, by integrating out short-term fluctuations.

The Variation of Solar FE XIV and FE X Flux Over 1.5 Solar Activity Cycles

Abstract: A new source of data on the solar output, namely limb flux from the one- and two-million degree corona is presented. This parameter is derived from data obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak with the 40 cm coronagraph of the John W. Evans Solar Facility and the Emission Line Coronal Photometer. The limb flux is defined to be the latitude-averaged intensity in millionths of the brightness of disk center from an annulus of width 1.1 minutes centered at a height of 0.15 solar constant above the limb of emission from lines at 6374A (Fe X) or 5303A (Fe XIV). Fe XIV data have been obtained since 1973 and Fe X since 1984. Examination of the Fe XIV data shows that there is ambiguity in the definition of the last two solar activity minima, which can affect the determination of cycle rise times and lengths. There is an indication that a constant minimum or basal corona may exist at solar minimum. Cycle 22 has had a much faster onset than Cycle 21 and has now overtaken Cycle 21. The rise characteristics of the two cycles were very similar up until Jul. to Aug. 1989, at which time a long-term maximum occurred in Fe X and Fe XIV, which could possibly be the solar maximum. Another maximum is developing at the current time. Cycle 21 was characterized in Fe XIV by at least 4 major thrusts or bursts of activity, each lasting on the order of a year and all having similar maximum limb fluxes which indicates that coronal energy output is sustained over periods in which the sunspot number declines significantly. Dramatic increases in the limb fluxes occur from minimum to maximum, ranging from factors of 14 to 21 in the two lines. Two different techniques to predict the epoch of solar maximum have been applied to the Fe XIV data, resulting in estimates of April 1989 (plus or minus 1 mo) and May 1990 (plus or minus 2 mos).

Solar Constant Data from Earth Radiation Budget Measurements

Abstract: At present, solar total irradiance measurements are made from four satellites using electrically self calibrating pyrheliometers, as a part of the earth radiation budget measurement programs. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) mission onboard Nimbus-7 spacecraft (Nimbus/ERB) started solar total irradiance measurements in November 1978, and is still obtaining irradiance data on every orbit, daily. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitors onboard Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 started solar total irradiance measurements in October 1984, January 1985, and October 1986, respectively. Our knowledge of solar total irradiance and its variability has grown remarkably during the past few years, as a result of the above measurements, and the high precision data obtained from Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor-1 (SMM/ACRIM-1). The results from a comparative study of the solar constant data available from the above missions are presented. The solar constant value derived from the sensors agree within the uncertainty associated with absolute pyrheliometers available at present. An attempt will be made to correlate the solar irradiance variability with other solar parameters. The measurements from Nimbus-7/ERB started November 1978, as the solar cycle 21 was increasing in activity. The solar luminosity reached a maximum in the spring of 1979. The irradiance then decreased slowly to a minimum which lasted from 1984 through 1986. The irradiance is presently increasing towards a new maximum. It appears that the solar constant value follow an eleven year cycle.

A Solar Constant Model for Sun-climate Studies: 1600-2000AD

Abstract: Discussed here is the solar constant model published recently (Schatten, 1988), but with a modified phasing and amplitude. This model enables the known solar constant variations to be calculated from known active region and quiet region solar parameters. The features which can be modelled are sunspots and faculae, the only two features which mark the photospheric continuum with their unusual contrast behavior. They include both the active region features (sunspots and faculae) and the quiet region features (global faculae). Although the direct influences of sunspots upon the solar constant leads to short term decreases, an opposite, nearly in phase, 11 year variation in the solar constant is modelled, thereby agreeing with the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) and Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) secular trends observed. This opposite behavior results primarily from global faculae (polar, network, and active region). The main contributors to the global behavior are the network faculae. The model attributes the observed variations in the solar constant entirely to magnetic features in the solar atmosphere. The present model serves purely to model the secular (long term) trend in the solar constant. The model suggests a change of approx. 0.5 W/sq m for the differences between the late twentieth century solar constant and the 17th century solar constant. This supports Eddy's view that this difference could give rise to the glacial increase during the little ice age of the 17th century. Important for present day climate studies, is that it shows the recent peak activity (peaking in 1958) is associated with an atypically high value of the solar constant, with respect to the past few hundred years.

Response of a stochastically-perturbed 1-D surface energy balance model to increased temperature

Abstract: The response of the climatic system to changes in its radiative forcing has been the subject of much study. Climate models of various complexity have been used to demonstrate that a small increase in the solar constant, or doubling of the atmospheric CO2, would lead to a warmer surface. Very little scientific attention, however, has been given to the effect such a change in radiative balance might have on climatic variability. That is, would an earth warmed in this way be more temperate or more variable? To move one step closer to answering this question, we employed a simple one-dimensional surface energy balance climate model and forced it with random Gaussian white noise to simulate interannual variability. We integrated the model using 0, 2, and 4% increases in the solar constant. The results of these numerical experiments indicate that, under a warmer surface radiative balance, interannual variability of the surface temperature is reduced.

A solar-luminosity model and climate.

Abstract: Although the mechanisms of climatic change are not completely understood, the potential causes include changes in the Sun's luminosity. Solar activity in the form of sunspots, flares, proton events, and radiation fluctuations has displayed periodic tendencies. Two types of proxy climatic data that can be related to periodic solar activity are varved geologic formations and freshwater diatom deposits. A model for solar luminosity was developed by using the geometric progression of harmonic cycles that is evident in solar and geophysical data. The model assumes that variation in global energy input is a result of many periods of individual solar-luminosity variations. The 0.1-percent variation of the solar constant measured during the last sunspot cycle provided the basis for determining the amplitude of each luminosity cycle. Model output is a summation of the amplitudes of each cycle of a geometric progression of harmonic sine waves that are referenced to the 11-year average solar cycle. When the last eight cycles in Emiliani's oxygen-18 variations from deep-sea cores were standardized to the average length of glaciations during the Pleistocene (88,000 years), correlation coefficients with the model output ranged from 0.48 to 0.76. In order to calibrate the model to real time, model output was graphically compared to indirect records of glacial advances and retreats during the last 24,000 years and with sea-level rises during the Holocene. Carbon-14 production during the last millenium and elevations of the Great Salt Lake for the last 140 years demonstrate significant correlations with modeled luminosity. Major solar flares during the last 90 years match well with the time-calibrated model.