Showing papers on "Spatial analysis published in 2007"

Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data : a review

Abstract: Species distributional or trait data based on range map (extent-of-occurrence) or atlas survey data often display spatial autocorrelation, i.e. locations close to each other exhibit more similar values than those further apart. If this pattern remains present in the residuals of a statistical model based on such data, one of the key assumptions of standard statistical analyses, that residuals are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d), is violated. The violation of the assumption of i.i.d. residuals may bias parameter estimates and can increase type I error rates (falsely rejecting the null hypothesis of no effect). While this is increasingly recognised by researchers analysing species distribution data, there is, to our knowledge, no comprehensive overview of the many available spatial statistical methods to take spatial autocorrelation into account in tests of statistical significance. Here, we describe six different statistical approaches to infer correlates of species’ distributions, for both presence/absence (binary response) and species abundance data (poisson or normally distributed response), while accounting for spatial autocorrelation in model residuals: autocovariate regression; spatial eigenvector mapping; generalised least squares; (conditional and simultaneous) autoregressive models and generalised estimating equations. A comprehensive comparison of the relative merits of these methods is beyond the scope of this paper. To demonstrate each method’s implementation, however, we undertook preliminary tests based on simulated data. These preliminary tests verified that most of the spatial modeling techniques we examined showed good type I error control and precise parameter estimates, at least when confronted with simplistic simulated data containing

Citizens as Voluntary Sensors: Spatial Data Infrastructure in the World of Web 2.0

Abstract: Much progress has been made in the past two decades, and increasingly since the popularizing of the Internet and the advent of the Web, in exploiting new technologies in support of the dissemination of geographic information. Data warehouses, spatial data libraries, and geoportals have proliferated, and today’s users of geographic information have a wealth of potential sources that can be searched for suitable data sets. Standards have been established, issues of syntactic interoperability have been largely addressed, and rich descriptions are available in metadata to allow the suitability of a given data set to be assessed. Table digitizers used to be an essential asset for any spatial data center in the days when most sources of geographic information were in the form of paper maps, and skill in digitizing was a major part of any introduction to geographic information systems (GIS). Today, however, users rely heavily on digital sources, and virtually all digitizing is heads-up on-screen.

Spatial autocorrelation and the selection of simultaneous autoregressive models

Abstract: Aim Spatial autocorrelation is a frequent phenomenon in ecological data and can affect estimates of model coefficients and inference from statistical models. Here, we test the performance of three different simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model types (spatial error = SAR err , lagged = SAR lag and mixed = SAR mix ) and common ordinary least squares (OLS) regression when accounting for spatial autocorrelation in species distribution data using four artificial data sets with known (but different) spatial autocorrelation structures. Methods We evaluate the performance of SAR models by examining spatial patterns in model residuals (with correlograms and residual maps), by comparing model parameter estimates with true values, and by assessing their type I error control with calibration curves. We calculate a total of 3240 SAR models and illustrate how the best models [in terms of minimum residual spatial autocorrelation (minRSA), maximum model fit ( R 2 ), or Akaike information criterion (AIC)] can be identified using model selection procedures. Results Our study shows that the performance of SAR models depends on model specification (i.e. model type, neighbourhood distance, coding styles of spatial weights matrices) and on the kind of spatial autocorrelation present. SAR model parameter estimates might not be more precise than those from OLS regressions in all cases. SAR err models were the most reliable SAR models and performed well in all cases (independent of the kind of spatial autocorrelation induced and whether models were selected by minRSA, R 2 or AIC), whereas OLS, SAR lag and SAR mix models showed weak type I error control and/or unpredictable biases in parameter estimates. Main conclusions SAR err models are recommended for use when dealing with spatially autocorrelated species distribution data. SAR lag and SAR mix might not always give better estimates of model coefficients than OLS, and can thus generate bias. Other spatial modelling techniques should be assessed comprehensively to test their predictive performance and accuracy for biogeographical and macroecological research.

Effects of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into the analysis of species distribution data

Abstract: Aim Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, i.e. the higher similarity of closer samples, is a common phenomenon in ecology. SAC is starting to be considered in the analysis of species distribution data, and over the last 10 years several studies have incorporated SAC into statistical models (here termed ‘spatial models’). Here, I address the question of whether incorporating SAC affects estimates of model coefficients and inference from statistical models. Methods I review ecological studies that compare spatial and non-spatial models. Results In all cases coefficient estimates for environmental correlates of species distributions were affected by SAC, leading to a mis-estimation of on average c. 25%. Model fit was also improved by incorporating SAC. Main conclusions These biased estimates and incorrect model specifications have implications for predicting species occurrences under changing environmental conditions. Spatial models are therefore required to estimate correctly the effects of environmental drivers on species present distributions, for a statistically unbiased identification of the drivers of distribution, and hence for more accurate forecasts of future distributions.

Multiple regression on distance matrices: a multivariate spatial analysis tool

Abstract: I explore the use of multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM), an extension of partial Mantel analysis, in spatial analysis of ecological data. MRM involves a multiple regression of a response matrix on any number of explanatory matrices, where each matrix contains distances or similarities (in terms of ecological, spatial, or other attributes) between all pair-wise combinations of n objects (sample units); tests of statistical significance are performed by permutation. The method is flexible in terms of the types of data that may be analyzed (counts, presence–absence, continuous, categorical) and the shapes of response curves. MRM offers several advantages over traditional partial Mantel analysis: (1) separating environmental distances into distinct distance matrices allows inferences to be made at the level of individual variables; (2) nonparametric or nonlinear multiple regression methods may be employed; and (3) spatial autocorrelation may be quantified and tested at different spatial scales using a series of lag matrices, each representing a geographic distance class. The MRM lag matrices model may be parameterized to yield very similar inferences regarding spatial autocorrelation as the Mantel correlogram. Unlike the correlogram, however, the lag matrices model may also include environmental distance matrices, so that spatial patterns in species abundance distances (community similarity) may be quantified while controlling for the environmental similarity between sites. Examples of spatial analyses with MRM are presented.

Spatial Information Theory

Abstract: Cultural Studies.- Progress on Yindjibarndi Ethnophysiography.- Study of Cultural Impacts on Location Judgments in Eastern China.- Cross-Cultural Similarities in Topological Reasoning.- Thalassographein: Representing Maritime Spaces in Ancient Greece.- Semantics.- From Top-Level to Domain Ontologies: Ecosystem Classifications as a Case Study.- Semantic Categories Underlying the Meaning of 'Place'.- Spatial Semantics in Difference Spaces.- Similarity.- Evaluation of a Semantic Similarity Measure for Natural Language Spatial Relations.- Affordance-Based Similarity Measurement for Entity Types.- An Image-Schematic Account of Spatial Categories.- Mapping and Representation.- Specifying Essential Features of Street Networks.- Spatial Information Extraction for Cognitive Mapping with a Mobile Robot.- Spatial Mapping and Map Exploitation: A Bio-inspired Engineering Perspective.- Scale-Dependent Simplification of 3D Building Models Based on Cell Decomposition and Primitive Instancing.- Perception and Cognition.- Degradation in Spatial Knowledge Acquisition When Using Automatic Navigation Systems.- Stories as Route Descriptions.- Three Sampling Methods for Visibility Measures of Landscape Perception.- Reasoning and Algorithms.- Reasoning on Spatial Semantic Integrity Constraints.- Spatial Reasoning with a Hole.- Geospatial Cluster Tessellation Through the Complete Order-k Voronoi Diagrams.- Drawing a Figure in a Two-Dimensional Plane for a Qualitative Representation.- Navigation and Landmarks.- Linguistic and Nonlinguistic Turn Direction Concepts.- A Uniform Handling of Different Landmark Types in Route Directions.- Effects of Geometry, Landmarks and Orientation Strategies in the 'Drop-Off' Orientation Task.- Uncertainty and Imperfection.- Data Quality Ontology: An Ontology for Imperfect Knowledge.- Triangulation of Gradient Polygons: A Spatial Data Model for Categorical Fields.- Relations in Mathematical Morphology with Applications to Graphs and Rough Sets.

Geospatial Analysis: A Comprehensive Guide to Principles, Techniques and Software Tools

Abstract: This second edition of the widely acclaimed "Geospatial Analysis" guide has been updated and extended to include a major new chapter on Geocomputational Methods. It addresses the full spectrum of analytical techniques that are provided within modern Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and related geospatial software products. It is broad in its treatment of concepts and methods and representative in terms of the software that people actually use.Topics covered include: the principal concepts of geospatial analysis, their origins and methodological context; core components of geospatial analysis, including distance and directional analysis, geometrical processing, map algebra, and grid models; basic methods of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial statistics, including spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression; surface analysis, including surface form analysis, gridding and interpolation methods; network and locational analysis, including shortest path calculation, traveling salesman problems; facility location and arc routing; Geocomputational methods, including Cellular automata, Agent Based Modelling, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.The Guide has been designed for everyone involved in geospatial analysis, from undergraduate and postgraduate to professional analyst, software engineer and GIS practitioner. It builds upon the spatial analysis topics included in the US National Academies 'Beyond Mapping' and 'Learning to think spatially' agendas, the UK 'Spatial Literacy in Teaching' program, the NCGIA Core Curriculum and the AAAG/UCGIS Body of Knowledge. As such it provides a valuable reference guide and accompaniment to courses built around these programs.

The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models

Abstract: Summary 1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species’ environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species’ occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications . To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error. Journal of Applied Ecology (2007)

LandScan USA: a high-resolution geospatial and temporal modeling approach for population distribution and dynamics

Abstract: High-resolution population distribution data are critical for successfully addressing important issues ranging from socio-environmental research to public health to homeland security, since scientific analyses, operational activities, and policy decisions are significantly influenced by the number of impacted people. Dasymetric modeling has been a well-recognized approach for spatial decomposition of census data to increase the spatial resolution of population distribution. However, enhancing the temporal resolution of population distribution poses a greater challenge. In this paper, we discuss the development of LandScan USA, a multi-dimensional dasymetric modeling approach, which has allowed the creation of a very high-resolution population distribution data both over space and time. At a spatial resolution of 3 arc seconds (∼90 m), the initial LandScan USA database contains both a nighttime residential as well as a baseline daytime population distribution that incorporates movement of workers and students. Challenging research issues of disparate and misaligned spatial data and modeling to develop a database at a national scale, as well as model verification and validation approaches are illustrated and discussed. Initial analyses indicate a high degree of locational accuracy for LandScan USA distribution model and data. High-resolution population data such as LandScan USA, which describes both distribution and dynamics of human population, clearly has the potential to profoundly impact multiple domain applications of national and global priority.

Beyond Moran's I: Testing for Spatial Dependence Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model

Abstract: The statistic known as Moran's I is widely used to test for the presence of spatial dependence in observations taken on a lattice. Under the null hypothesis that the data are independent and identically distributed normal random variates, the distribution of Moran's I is known, and hypothesis tests based on this statistic have been shown in the literature to have various optimality properties. Given its simplicity, Moran's I is also frequently used outside of the formal hypothesis-testing setting in exploratory analyses of spatially referenced data; however, its limitations are not very well understood. To illustrate these limitations, we show that, for data generated according to the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Moran's I is only a good estimator of the SAR model's spatial-dependence parameter when the parameter is close to 0. In this research, we develop an alternative closed-form measure of spatial autocorrelation, which we call APLE, because it is an approximate profile-likelihood estimator (APLE) of the SAR model's spatial-dependence parameter. We show that APLE can be used as a test statistic for, and an estimator of, the strength of spatial autocorrelation. We include both theoretical and simulation-based motivations (including comparison with the maximum-likelihood estimator), for using APLE as an estimator. In conjunction, we propose the APLE scatterplot, an exploratory graphical tool that is analogous to the Moran scatterplot, and we demonstrate that the APLE scatterplot is a better visual tool for assessing the strength of spatial autocorrelation in the data than the Moran scatterplot. In addition, Monte Carlo tests based on both APLE and Moran's I are introduced and compared. Finally, we include an analysis of the well-known Mercer and Hall wheat-yield data to illustrate the difference between APLE and Moran's I when they are used in exploratory spatial data analysis.

Spatial process and data models : toward integration of agent-based models and GIS.

Abstract: The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, we identify four key relationships affecting how geographic data (fields and objects) and agent-based process models can interact: identity, causal, temporal and topological. We discuss approaches to implementing tight integration, focusing on a middleware approach that links existing GIS and ABM development platforms, and illustrate the need and approaches with example agent-based models.

Semiparametric Filtering of Spatial Autocorrelation: The Eigenvector Approach

Abstract: In the context of spatial regression analysis, several methods can be used to control for the statistical effects of spatial dependencies among observations. Maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches account for spatial dependencies in a parametric framework, whereas recent spatial filtering approaches focus on nonparametrically removing spatial autocorrelation. In this paper we propose a semiparametric spatial filtering approach that allows researchers to deal explicitly with (a) spatially lagged autoregressive models and (b) simultaneous autoregressive spatial models. As in one non-parametric spatial filtering approach, a specific subset of eigenvectors from a transformed spatial link matrix is used to capture dependencies among the disturbances of a spatial regression model. However, the optimal subset in the proposed filtering model is identified more intuitively by an objective function that minimizes spatial autocorrelation rather than maximizes a model fit. The proposed objective function has the a...

Spatial Latent Dirichlet Allocation

Abstract: In recent years, the language model Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), which clusters co-occurring words into topics, has been widely applied in the computer vision field. However, many of these applications have difficulty with modeling the spatial and temporal structure among visual words, since LDA assumes that a document is a "bag-of-words". It is also critical to properly design "words" and "documents" when using a language model to solve vision problems. In this paper, we propose a topic model Spatial Latent Dirichlet Allocation (SLDA), which better encodes spatial structures among visual words that are essential for solving many vision problems. The spatial information is not encoded in the values of visual words but in the design of documents. Instead of knowing the partition of words into documents a priori, the word-document assignment becomes a random hidden variable in SLDA. There is a generative procedure, where knowledge of spatial structure can be flexibly added as a prior, grouping visual words which are close in space into the same document. We use SLDA to discover objects from a collection of images, and show it achieves better performance than LDA.

On the Spatial Statistics of Optical Flow

Abstract: We present an analysis of the spatial and temporal statistics of "natural" optical flow fields and a novel flow algorithm that exploits their spatial statistics. Training flow fields are constructed using range images of natural scenes and 3D camera motions recovered from hand-held and car-mounted video sequences. A detailed analysis of optical flow statistics in natural scenes is presented and machine learning methods are developed to learn a Markov random field model of optical flow. The prior probability of a flow field is formulated as a Field-of-Experts model that captures the spatial statistics in overlapping patches and is trained using contrastive divergence. This new optical flow prior is compared with previous robust priors and is incorporated into a recent, accurate algorithm for dense optical flow computation. Experiments with natural and synthetic sequences illustrate how the learned optical flow prior quantitatively improves flow accuracy and how it captures the rich spatial structure found in natural scene motion.

Approximate likelihood for large irregularly spaced spatial data.

Abstract: Likelihood approaches for large, irregularly spaced spatial datasets are often very difficult, if not infeasible, to implement due to computational limitations. Even when we can assume normality, exact calculations of the likelihood for a Gaussian spatial process observed at n locations requires O(n3) operations. We present a version of Whittle's approximation to the Gaussian log-likelihood for spatial regular lattices with missing values and for irregularly spaced datasets. This method requires O(nlog2n) operations and does not involve calculating determinants. We present simulations and theoretical results to show the benefits and the performance of the spatial likelihood approximation method presented here for spatial irregularly spaced datasets and lattices with missing values. We apply these methods to estimate the spatial structure of sea surface temperatures using satellite data with missing values.

Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to Leverage Social Indicator Databases: The Discovery of Interesting Patterns

Abstract: With the proliferation of social indicator databases, the need for powerful techniques to study patterns of change has grown. In this paper, the utility of spatial data analytical methods such as exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is suggested as a means to leverage the information contained in social indicator databases. The principles underlying ESDA are illustrated using a study of clusters and outliers based on data for a child risk scale computed for countries in the state of Virginia. Evidence of spatial clusters of high child risks is obtained along the Southern region of Virginia. The utility of spatial methods for state agencies in monitoring social indicators at various localities is discussed. A six-step framework that integrates spatial analysis of key indicators within a monitoring framework is presented; we argue that such a framework could be useful in enhancing communication between State and local planners.

Red herrings revisited: spatial autocorrelation and parameter estimation in geographical ecology

Abstract: There have been numerous claims in the ecological literature that spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models results in shifts in the partial coefficients, which bias the interpretation of factors influencing geographical patterns. We evaluate the validity of these claims using gridded species richness data for the birds of North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the ex-USSR, and Australia. We used richness in 110x110 km cells and environmental predictor variables to generate OLS and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) multiple regression models for each region. Spatial correlograms of the residuals from each OLS model were then used to identify the minimum distance between cells necessary to avoid short-distance residual spatial autocorrelation in each data set. This distance was used to subsample cells to generate spatially independent data. The partial OLS coefficients estimated with the full dataset were then compared to the distributions of coefficients created with the subsamples. We found that OLS coefficients generated from data containing residual spatial autocorrelation were statistically indistinguishable from coefficients generated from the same data sets in which short-distance spatial autocorrelation was not present in all 22 coefficients tested. Consistent with the statistical literature on this subject, we conclude that coefficients estimated from OLS regression are not seriously affected by the presence of spatial autocorrelation in gridded geographical data. Further, shifts in coefficients that occurred when using SAR tended to be correlated with levels of uncertainty in the OLS coefficients. Thus, shifts in the relative importance of the predictors between OLS and SAR models are expected when small-scale patterns for these predictors create weaker and more unstable broad-scale coefficients. Our results indicate both that OLS regression is unbiased and that differences between spatial and nonspatial regression models should be interpreted with an explicit awareness of spatial scale.

Can niche-based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation?

Abstract: Aim Distribution modelling relates sparse data on species occurrence or abundance to environmental information to predict the population of a species at any point in space. Recently, the importance of spatial autocorrelation in distributions has been recognized. Spatial autocorrelation can be categorized as exogenous (stemming from autocorrelation in the underlying variables) or endogenous (stemming from activities of the organism itself, such as dispersal). Typically, one asks whether spatial models explain additional variability (endogenous) in comparison to a fully specified habitat model. We turned this question around and asked: can habitat models explain additional variation when spatial structure is accounted for in a fully specified spatially explicit model? The aim was to find out to what degree habitat models may be inadvertently capturing spatial structure rather than true explanatory mechanisms. Location We used data from 190 species of the North American Breeding Bird Survey covering the conterminous United States and southern Canada. Methods We built 13 different models on 190 bird species using regression trees. Our habitat-based models used climate and landcover variables as independent variables. We also used random variables and simulated ranges to validate our results. The two spatially explicit models included only geographical coordinates or a contagion term as independent variables. As another angle on the question of mechanism vs. spatial structure we pitted a model using related bird species as predictors against a model using randomly selected bird species. Results The spatially explicit models outperformed the traditional habitat models and the random predictor species outperformed the related predictor species. In addition, environmental variables produced a substantial R2 in predicting artificial ranges. Main conclusions We conclude that many explanatory variables with suitable spatial structure can work well in species distribution models. The predictive power of environmental variables is not necessarily mechanistic, and spatial interpolation can outperform environmental explanatory variables.

Geographical epidemiology, spatial analysis and geographical information systems: a multidisciplinary glossary.

Abstract: We provide a relatively non-technical glossary of terms and a description of the tools used in spatial or geographical epidemiology and associated geographical information systems. Statistical topics included cover adjustment and standardisation to allow for demographic and other background differences, data structures, data smoothing, spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression. We also discuss the rationale for geographical epidemiology and specific techniques such as disease clustering, disease mapping, ecological analyses, geographical information systems and global positioning systems.

Non-stationarity and local approaches to modelling the distributions of wildlife

Abstract: Despite a growing interest in species distribution modelling, relatively little attention has been paid to spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity. Both spatial autocorrelation (the tendency for adjacent locations to be more similar than distant ones) and non-stationarity (the variation in modelled relationships over space) are likely to be common properties of ecological systems. This paper focuses on non-stationarity and uses two local techniques, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and varying coefficient modelling (VCM), to assess its impact on model predictions. We extend two published studies, one on the presence–absence of calandra larks in Spain and the other on bird species richness in Britain, to compare GWR and VCM with the more usual global generalized linear modelling (GLM) and generalized additive modelling (GAM). For the calandra lark data, GWR and VCM produced better-fitting models than GLM or GAM. VCM in particular gave significantly reduced spatial autocorrelation in the model residuals. GWR showed that individual predictors became stationary at different spatial scales, indicating that distributions are influenced by ecological processes operating over multiple scales. VCM was able to predict occurrence accurately on independent data from the same geographical area as the training data but not beyond, whereas the GAM produced good results on all areas. Individual predictions from the local methods often differed substantially from the global models. For the species richness data, VCM and GWR produced far better predictions than ordinary regression. Our analyses suggest that modellers interpolating data to produce maps for practical actions (e.g. conservation) should consider local methods, whereas they should not be used for extrapolation to new areas. We argue that local methods are complementary to global methods, revealing details of habitat associations and data properties which global methods average out and miss.

Local Indicators of Network-Constrained Clusters in Spatial Point Patterns

Abstract: The detection of clustering in a spatial phenomenon of interest is an important issue in spatial pattern analysis. While traditional methods mostly rely on the planar space assumption, many spatial phenomena defy the logic of this assumption. For instance, certain spatial phenomena related to human activities are inherently constrained by a transportation network because of our strong dependence on the transportation system. This article thus introduces an exploratory spatial data analysis method named local indicators of network-constrained clusters (LINCS), for detecting local-scale clustering in a spatial phenomenon that is constrained by a network space. The LINCS method presented here applies to a set of point events distributed over the network space. It is based on the network K-function, which is designed to determine whether an event distribution has a significant clustering tendency with respect to the network space. First, an incremental K-function is developed so as to identify cluster size more explicitly than the original K-function does. Second, to enable identification of cluster locations, a local K-function is derived by decomposing and modifying the original network K-function. The local K-function LINCS, which is referred to as KLINCS, is tested on the distribution of 1997 highway vehicle crashes in the Buffalo, NY area. Also discussed is an adjustment of the KLINCS method for the nonuniformity of the population at risk over the network. As traffic volume can be seen as a surrogate of the population exposed to a risk of vehicle crashes, the spatial distribution of vehicle crashes is examined in relation to that of traffic volumes on the network. The results of the KLINCS analysis are validated through a comparison with priority investigation locations (PILs) designated by the New York State Department of Transportation.

Areal Interpolation of Population Counts Using Pre-classified Land Cover Data

Abstract: The need to combine spatial data representing sociodemographic information across incompatible spatial units is a common problem for demographers. A particular concern is computing small area trends when aggregation zone boundaries change during the trend interval. To that end, this study provides an example of dasymetric areal interpolation using the pre-classified land cover data available through the US Geological Survey’s National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) program. Areal interpolation of population estimates is preferable to traditional reaggregation techniques, and the use of land cover data as a weighting factor in interpolated estimation has been shown in earlier studies to be highly accurate. In this study, the NLCD data set performs well and, because it requires no classification, it compares favorably with other land cover data sets for areal interpolation when considered on the basis of accuracy, precision and ease of use.

Regression Techniques for Examining Land Use/Cover Change: A Case Study of a Mediterranean Landscape

Abstract: In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalization of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (that is, that which minimizes variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del rio Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.

Spatial Vector Autoregressions

Abstract: A spatial vector autoregressive model (SpVAR) is defined as a VAR which includes spatial as well as temporal lags among a vector of stationary state variables. SpVARs may contain disturbances that are spatially as well as temporally correlated. Although the structural parameters are not fully identified in SpVARs, contemporaneous spatial lag coefficients may be identified by weakly exogenous state variables. Dynamic spatial panel data econometrics is used to estimate SpVARs. The incidental parameter problem is handled by bias correction rather than more popular alternatives such as generalised methods of moments (GMM). The interaction between temporal and spatial stationarity is discussed. The impulse responses for SpVARs are derived, which naturally depend upon the temporal and spatial dynamics of the model. We provide an empirical illustration using annual spatial panel data for Israel. The estimated SpVAR is used to calculate impulse responses between variables, over time, and across space. Fi...

How can remote sensing contribute in groundwater modeling

Abstract: Groundwater resources assessment, modeling and management are hampered considerably by a lack of data, especially in semi-arid and arid environments with a weak observation infrastructure. Usually, only a limited number of point measurements are available, while groundwater models need spatial and temporal distributions of input and calibration data. If such data are not available, models cannot play their proper role in decision support as they are notoriously underdetermined and uncertain. Recent developments in remote sensing have opened new sources for distributed spatial data. As the relevant entities such as water fluxes, heads or transmissivities cannot be observed directly by remote sensing, ways have to be found to link the observable quantities to input data required by the model. An overview of the possibilities for employing remote-sensing observations in groundwater modeling is given, supported by examples in Botswana and China. The main possibilities are: (1) use of remote-sensing data to create some of the spatially distributed input parameter sets for a model, and (2) constraining of models during calibration by spatially distributed data derived from remote sensing. In both, models can be improved conceptually and quantitatively.