Spot contract

About: Spot contract is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 3437 publications have been published within this topic receiving 91599 citations.

Filtering and Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices in the Increasingly Deregulated Australian Electricity Market

Abstract: Modelling and forecasting the volatile spot pricing process for electricity presents a number of challenges. For increasingly deregulated electricity markets, like that in the Australian state of New South Wales, there is need to price a range of derivative securities used for hedging. Any derivative pricing model that hopes to capture the pricing dynamics within this market must be able to cope with the extreme volatility of the observed spot prices. By applying wavelet analysis, we examine both the price and demand series at different time locations and levels of resolution to reveal and differentiate what is signal and what is noise. Further, we cleanse the data of leakage from the high frequency, mean reverting price spikes into the more fundamental levels of frequency resolution. As it is from these levels that we base the reconstruction of our filtered series, we need to ensure they are least contaminated by noise. Using the filtered data, we explore time series models as possible candidates for explaining the pricing process and evaluate their forecasting ability. These models include one from the threshold autoregressive (AR) model. What we find is that models from the TAR class produce forecasts that best appear to capture the mean and variance components of the actual data.

Impact of banking and forward contracts on tradable permit markets

Abstract: This article assesses the effects of banking on tradable emission permit markets and, in particular, the role of uncertainty in permit markets that allow banking. In such markets, current and future spot trade markets are linked: An increase in uncertainty about future spot markets at first lowers spot prices due to the presence of unregulated agents but soon spurs an increase in spot prices.

Captive Supplies and the Cash Market Price: A Spatial Markets Approach

Abstract: Exclusive contracts (often called "captive supplies") between processors and farmers are an increasingly important feature of modern agriculture. We study an interesting empirical regularity occurring in markets that feature both contract and spot exchange: the spot price is inversely related to the incidence of contract use in the market. We use a spatial model and a noncooperative game approach to show that processors can use exclusive contracts to manipulate the spot price in certain situations. Captive supplies in these settings represent geographic buffers that reduce competition among processors. However, in markets where the spatial dimension is less important, captive supplies are ineffective as barriers to competition because firms have incentive to "jump" across a captive supply region to procure the farm