Spot contract

About: Spot contract is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 3437 publications have been published within this topic receiving 91599 citations.

Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets

Abstract: Motivated by repeated price spikes and crashes over the last decade, we investigate whether the growing market shares of futures speculators destabilize commodity spot prices. We approximate conditional volatility and analyze how it is affected by speculative open interest. In this context, we split our sample into two equally long subperiods and document whether the speculative impact on conditional volatility increases. With respect to six heavily traded agricultural and energy commodities, we do not find robust evidence that this is the case. We thus conclude that the financialization of raw material markets does not make them more volatile.

Term Structure Models of Commodity Prices: A Review

Abstract: This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on term structure models of commodity prices. The first section is devoted to the theoretical analysis of the term structure. It confines itself primarily to the traditional theories of commodity prices and to their explanation of the relationship between spot and futures prices. The theories of normal backwardation and storage are however a bit limited when the whole term structure is taken into account. As a result, there is a need for a long-term extension of the analysis, and this premise constitutes the second point of the section. Finally, a dynamic analysis of the term structure is presented. The second section is centered on term structure models of commodity prices. The presentation shows that these models differ on the nature and the number of factors used to describe uncertainty. Four different factors are generally used: the spot price, the convenience yield, the interest rate, and the long-term price. The third section reviews the main empirical results obtained with term structure models. First of all, simulations highlight the influence of the assumptions concerning the stochastic process retained for the state variables and the number of state variables. Then, the method usually employed for the estimation of the parameters is explained. Lastly, the models9 performances, i.e., their ability to reproduce the term structure of commodity prices, are presented. The fourth section examines the two main applications of term structure models: hedging and valuation. The conclusion summarizes the broad trends in the literature on commodity pricing during the 1990s and early 2000s, and proposes future directions for research.

An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium

Abstract: This brief paper will show that (a) a theoretical equilibrium state of the world exists in the absence of capital controls and trade barriers when prices for the same goods in different markets are equal, after translation at the spot exchange rate; (b) differences in rates of aggregate price change in different markets eventually cause offsetting exchange rate changes which restore condition (a); (c) returns on equivalent securities denominated in different currencies but covered in the forward market are almost instantaneously equalized; (d) the market's expected rate of change of the exchange rate equals, to a close approximation, the control-free interest rate differential between the two currencies; (e) in the absence of predictable exchange market intervention by central banks, the interest rate differential is the best possible forecaster of the future spot rate; and (f) the forward rate also provides the best forecast of the future spot rate. A final corollary identifies a relationship between inflation rates and international interest rate differentials.

Contract duration and investment incentives: evidence from land tenancy agreements

Abstract: This paper analyzes the empirical determinants of contract length, a key and yet neglected dimension of contractual structure. I estimate contract length and contract type jointly using original data on tenancy agreements signed between 1870 and 1880 in the district of Siracusa, Italy. The findings indicate that the choice of contract length is driven by the need to provide incentives for nonobservable investment, taking into account transaction costs and imperfections in the credit markets that make incentive provision costly. The results also illustrate that because both length and the compensation scheme are used to provide incentives within the same contract, joint analysis is important for a correct interpretation of the evidence. (JEL: D82, O12, Q15)