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Stock (geology)
About: Stock (geology) is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 31009 publications have been published within this topic receiving 783542 citations.
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TL;DR: A classic collection of raw data and analysis of the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States between 1856 and 1936 can be found in this paper.
Abstract: A classic collection of raw data and analysis of the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States between 1856 and 1936. It comments on issues such as leads and lags and empirical forecasting.
598 citations
TL;DR: Barro et al. as discussed by the authors proposed a time-varying probability of a consumption disaster model to explain the stock market volatility and excess return predictability, showing that the risk is sufficiently high, and the rare disaster sufficiently severe, to quantitatively explain the equity premium.
Abstract: Why is the equity premium so high, and why are stocks so volatile? Why are stock returns in excess of government bill rates predictable? This paper proposes an answer to these questions based on a time-varying probability of a consumption disaster. In the model, aggregate consumption follows a normal distribution with low volatility most of the time, but with some probability of a consumption realization far out in the left tail. The possibility of this poor outcome substantially increases the equity premium, while time-variation in the probability of this outcome drives high stock market volatility and excess return predictability. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE expected excess return on stocks relative to bonds (the equity premium) constitutes one of the major puzzles in financial economics. As Mehra and Prescott (1985 )s how, the fl uctuations observed in the consumption growth rate over U.S. history predict an equity premium that is far too small, assuming reasonable levels of risk aversion. 1 One proposed explanation is that the return on equities is high to compensate investors for the risk of a rare disaster (Rietz (1988)). An open question has therefore been whether the risk is sufficiently high, and the rare disaster sufficiently severe, to quantitatively explain the equity premium. Recently, however, Barro (2006) shows that it is possible to explain the equity premium using such a model when the probability of a rare disaster is calibrated to international data on large economic declines. WhilethemodelsofRietz(1988)andBarro(2006)advanceourunderstanding
596 citations
TL;DR: Using the Bayesian approach to stock assessment and decision analysis it becomes possible to admit the full range of uncertainty and use the collective historical experience of fisheries science when estimating the consequences of proposed management actions.
Abstract: The Bayesian approach to stock assessment determines the probabilities of alternative hypotheses using information for the stock in question and from inferences for other stocks/species. These probabilities are essential if the consequences of alternative management actions are to be evaluated through a decision analysis. Using the Bayesian approach to stock assessment and decision analysis it becomes possible to admit the full range of uncertainty and use the collective historical experience of fisheries science when estimating the consequences of proposed management actions. Recent advances in computing algorithms and power have allowed methods based on the Bayesian approach to be used even for fairly complex stock assessment models and to be within the reach of most stock assessment scientists. However, to avoid coming to ill-founded conclusions, care must be taken when selecting prior distributions. In particular, selection of priors designed to be noninformative with respect to quantities of interest to management is problematic. The arguments of the paper are illustrated using New Zealand's western stock of hoki, Macruronus novaezelandiae (Merlucciidae) and the Bering--Chukchi--Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales as examples
587 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine pairs of large, ''Siamese twin'' companies whose stocks are traded around the world but have different trading and ownership habitats Twins pool their cash flows, so, with integrated markets, twin stocks should move together However, the difference between the prices of twin stocks appears to be correlated with the markets on which they are traded most.
585 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50,000 employees at seven corporations and find that employees exercise in response to stock price trends, and that exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer horizons.
Abstract: We investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50,000 employees at seven corporations. Controlling for economic factors, psychological factors influence exercise. Consistent with psychological models of beliefs, employees exercise in response to stock price trends—exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer horizons. Consistent with psychological models of values that include reference points, employee exercise activity roughly doubles when the stock price exceeds the maximum price attained during the previous year.
583 citations