scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question

Showing papers on "Surprise published in 1996"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Empirical evidence attests to diverse need for closure effects on fundamental social psychological phenomena, including impression formation, stereotyping, attribution, persuasion, group decision making, and language use in intergroup contexts.
Abstract: A theoretical framework is outlined in which the key construct is the need for (nonspecific) cognitive closure. The need for closure is a desire for definite knowledge on some issue. It represents a dimension of stable individual differences as well as a situationally evocable state. The need for closure has widely ramifying consequences for social-cognitive phenomena at the intrapersonal, interpersonal, and group levels of analysis. Those consequences derive from 2 general tendencies, those of urgency and permanence. The urgency tendency represents an individual's inclination to attain closure as soon as possible, and the permanence tendency represents an individual's inclination to maintain it for as long as possible. Empirical evidence for present theory attests to diverse need for closure effects on fundamental social psychological phenomena, including impression formation, stereotyping, attribution, persuasion, group decision making, and language use in intergroup contexts. The construction of new knowledge is a pervasive human pursuit for both individuals and collectives. From relatively simple activities such as crossing a busy road to highly complex endeavors such as launching a space shuttle, new knowledge is indispensable for secure decisions and reasoned actions. The knowledge-construction process is often involved and intricate. It draws on background notions activated from memory and local information from the immediate context. It entails the extensive testing of hypotheses and the piecing of isolated cognitive bits into coherent wholes. It integrates inchoate sensations with articulate thoughts, detects meaningful signals in seas of ambient noise, and more. Two aspects of knowledge construction are of present interest: its motivated nature and its social character. That knowledge construction has a motivational base should come as no particular surprise. The host of effortful activities it comprises pose considerable demands on resource allocation; hence, it may well require motivation to get under way. Specifically, individuals may desire knowledge on some topics and not others, and they may delimit their constructive endeavors to those particular domains. But what kind of a motivational variable is the "desire for knowledge"? At least two answers readily suggest themselves: Knowledge could be desired because it conveys welcome news in regard to a given concern or because it conveys any definite news (whether welcome or unwelcome) in instances in which such information is required for some purpose. For instance, a mother may desire to know that

1,928 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is an open question whether ecosystem management will become a passing fad, an expansion of existing rigid bureaucratic procedures, or a sustaining foundation for learning to deal with the interactions between people, nature, and economic activities.
Abstract: It is an open question whether ecosystem management will become a passing fad, an expansion of existing rigid bureaucratic procedures, or a sustaining foundation for learning to deal with the interactions between people, nature, and economic activities. The report of the Ecological Society of America Committee on the Scientific Basis for Ecosystem Management makes a major contribution to the very best of those possibilities. Here I will comment on three consequences that flow from their conclusions-consequences for the kind of science, theory, and practice needed.

267 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Environmental Surprise: Expecting the Unexpected? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development: Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 6-34,.
Abstract: (1996). Environmental Surprise: Expecting the Unexpected? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development: Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 6-34.

81 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Jon Faust1
TL;DR: The authors formalizes a historical argument that the Fed's structure was a response to public conflict over inflation's redistributive powers and shows that, in the face of conflict over redistribution, policy by majority can lead to policy that is worse even for the majority, than obvious alternatives.

80 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
A Towle1, David Cottrell
TL;DR: If future and current practitioners are to adopt an ongoing reflective and critical approach to practice, they should aim to provide learning opportunities that promote self confidence, question asking and reflection, openness and risk taking, uncertainty and surprise.
Abstract: The ability to acquire skills in self directed learning may be the key link between undergraduate education, postgraduate training, and continuing professional development. If future and current practitioners are to adopt an ongoing reflective and critical approach to practice, we should aim to provide learning opportunities that promote self confidence, question asking and reflection, openness and risk taking, uncertainty and surprise. Teaching techniques that encourage these skills are being introduced widely and have been shown to be at least as effective as traditional methods of education while promoting more enjoyment and enthusiasm among both staff and students.

71 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Italy's record in medical science and practice is perceived to be below par, and one reason may be a lack of central coordination--forgivable in a country that had fifty governments in half a century.

69 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors found that by 5 or 6 years of age children claim that one will be surprised when they gain knowledge of that which they were previously ignorant or when they discover that they had previously held a false belief.
Abstract: Three experiments were carried out to determine whether there is a lag in predicting surprise relative to false belief. All 3 experiments used "backwards reasoning" tasks. The findings were that ( a ) there is a lag in predicting surprise relative to false belief, ( b ) by 5 or 6 years of age children claim that one will be surprised when they gain knowledge of that which they were previously ignorant or when they discover that they had previously held a false belief, ( c ) by 7 to 9 years of age they understand that surprise will more likely result from false beliefs rather than mere ignorance, and ( d ) children's difficulty understanding surprise as specifically belief-based does not likely stem from information processing limitations. It is argued that the lag likely results because children must build a new concept of surprise (e.g., from desire- to belief-based).

61 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors conclude that Shell's scenarios have been "individualist" or "hierarchist", or some combination of the two; none have adopted an "egalitarian perspective" and suggest that the "Values Shift" scenario may hold clues to future shifts in business strategy.

46 citations


Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: The spectrum of behaviors from subtle academic underachievement to blatant school refusal and dropout are considered serious health risks in adolescence is no surprise to concerned parents, teachers, professionals and the American public at the end of the 20th century.
Abstract: That the spectrum of behaviors from subtle academic underachievement to blatant school refusal and drop-out are considered serious health risks in adolescence is no surprise to concerned parents, teachers, professionals, and the American public at the end of the 20th century This century was proclaimed to be “The Century of the Child” in the first White House Conference on Children in 1909 (Beck, 1974), wherein the national consciousness and governmental policy was to be mobilized to improve the care, education, and welfare of the nation’s children

19 citations


Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, the issue of consistency of facial component of focus (upper/eyebrows, middle/eyes, lower/nose and mouth) when interpreting facial expressions of emotion was examined.
Abstract: The issue of consistency, without regard to accuracy, of the facial component of focus (upper/eyebrows, middle/eyes, lower/nose and mouth) when interpreting facial expressions of emotion was examined. Eighty girls (average age, 7 years) chose, from an array of schematic faces, which face best represented various emotional scenarios (anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, and surprise). The findings indicate that these children were remarkably consistent in facial area of focus. Across six trials for each emotion, children focused on the mouth (lower component) for happiness, sadness, surprise, and disgust, and on the eyebrows (the upper component) for anger and fear.

17 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a set of propositions are presented, according to which the predicted values of particular emotions are proportional to power functions of the products of pairs of social relations variables, and the general, formal, socioevolutionary theory makes it possible to predict the level of each of the eight primary emotions and of the 28 secondary emotions that are mixed pairs of primary emotions.
Abstract: Following Darwin, Plutchik's psychoevolutionary theory defines emotions as adaptive reactions to stimuli. While his ‘stimulus’ stands as an unanalyzed psychological construct, he does explicate four existential problems of life ‐ territoriality, hierarchy, temporality, and identity ‐ each of which can present itself as positive or negative, as an opportunity or a problem. Plutchik's four existential problems can be generalized into Fiske's (1991) four elementary relations of the social life ‐ market pricing, authority ranking, communal sharing, and equality matching, respectively. A set of propositions is presented, according to which the predicted values of particular emotions are proportional to power functions of the products of pairs of social relations variables. With the measurement of just eight social relations variables, the general, formal, socioevolutionary theory makes it possible to predict the level of each of the eight primary emotions and of the 28 secondary emotions that are mixed pairs of primary emotions. The possibility that jealousy is a mix of three primary emotions ‐ fear, sadness, and surprise ‐ is discussed.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the robustness of hindsight bias is affirmed but it is strongly recommended that the reversal hypothesis offered by Mazursky and Ofir (1990) be accommodated.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a new interpretation of the Hangman's Paradox and Newcomb's Paradox by casting the puzzles in the language of modern game theory, instead of in the realm of epistemology, and argue that giving a player an additional attractive (even dominant) strategy may make him worse off.
Abstract: We present a (hopefully) fresh interpretation of the Hangman's Paradox and Newcomb's Paradox by casting the puzzles in the language of modern game theory, instead of in the realm of epistemology. Game theory moves the analysis away from the formal logic of the puzzles toward more practical problems, such as: On what day would the executioner hang the prisoner if he wanted to surprise him as much as possible? How should a surprise test be administered? We argue that both the Hangman's Paradox and Newcomb's Paradox are analogous to a well-known phenomenon in game theory, that giving a player an additional attractive (even dominant) strategy may make him worse off. In the Hangman's Paradox, the executioner is determined to surprise the prisoner as much as possible, yet he cannot surprise him at all because he cannot commit in advance to a random schedule. The possibility of changing his mind (i.e., the presence of alternative strategies) superficially would seem to help the executioner, but because it changes the expectations of the prisoner, in the end it works dramatically to his disadvantage. In Newcomb's Paradox, a man given an extra dominant choice is worse off because it changes God's expectations about what he will do. Our analysis cannot be couched in terms of the standard Nash framework of games, but must instead be put in a recent extension called psychological games, where payoffs may depend on beliefs as well as on actions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This case report is not an indication for widespread use of diethyl carbamazine in HIV patients but hints at possibilities for further research and is published to stimulate further comment and investigation.
Abstract: One of the stimulating privileges of working as a medical practitioner is the element of surprise in clinical practice, the patient who survives despite all reasonable expectations, or the unexpected response to medication, usually an unwelcome adverse effect. Occasionally, a novel application emerges, quite tangential to the original goal of the medication, of which thalidomide treatment of erythema nodosum leprosum, type I1 lepra reactions is one notable example', or nifedipine for the treatment and prophylaxis of altitude sickness2. The report by Mejia, Hernandez and Kitchen published in this issue (p 55) , concerns nonparasitological applications of diethyl carbamazine (DEC) whose role has previously been confined to microfilarial infestations. There is a limited body of data suggesting antiviral, antibacterial and antifungal effects. The clinical course of HIV infected patients is highly variable even in late stage disease. This case report is not an indication for widespread use of DEC in HIV patients but hints at possibilities for further research and we publish it to stimulate further comment and investigation.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The need for change in programs that prepare teachers of English for 21st-century schools does not surprise the undergraduate students enrolled in today's English education programs as discussed by the authors, and the majority of these prospective teachers have graduated from high schools within the past four or five years.
Abstract: linguistic backgrounds, and they need help in recognizing and understanding the cultural dimensions today's students bring into middle and high school English courses. And the veteran teachers emphasize that they need help now. The need for change in programs that prepare teachers of English for 21st-century schools does not surprise the undergraduate students enrolled in today's English education programs. The majority of these prospective teachers have graduated from high schools within the past four or five years. Their high school experiences include classes in which they learned alongside students whose families immigrated to the United States from, among other places, Cuba, Haiti, Brazil, Colombia, countries within the former Soviet Union, and other countries where English is not the native language. Members of this newest generation of future teachers are aware that they must learn how to meet the needs of linguistically and culturally diverse students if they are to succeed as teachers of English in today's and tomorrow's classrooms. These preservice teachers will find the new demands of our profession easier to accept and meet than do many of their more experienced colleagues and mentors. Yet beyond the debilitating frustration that comes with increased demands on their


Book
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey of different varieties of probability, including belief, rationality and conditional expectation, and evidence, support, and belief in belief in the utility of belief.
Abstract: 1. Introduction 2. Varieties of Probability 3. Expected Utility 4. Rationality and Conditional Expectations 5. Ignorance, Surprise and Vagueness 6. Experiments, Dynamics, and Cognitive Illusions 7. Evidence, Support, and Beliefs 8. Economics 9. Concluding Remarks and Overview

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The possibility of cycles and chaos arising from nonlinear dynamics in economics emerged in the 1980s and it came as a surprise as discussed by the authors, and this paper surveys developments in this literature.
Abstract: The possibility of cycles and chaos arising from nonlinear dynamics in economics emerged in the 1980s, and it came as a surprise. This paper surveys developments in this literature.

01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this article, the issue of strategic surprise and specially the subject of surprise attack are some of the most complex problems that policymakers, militaries and intelligence analysts have to face, particularly for states such as Israel, as demonstrated during the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
Abstract: : The issue of strategic surprise and specially the subject of surprise attack are some of the most complex problems that policymakers, militaries and intelligence analysts have to face. This is particularly true for states such as Israel, as it was demonstrated during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Israel was taken by surprise which effected the beginning of the war, as well as the final results. From the Israeli perspective the basic problem was rooted in the imbalance between the size of the Arab and the Israeli military and the asymmetry seen from a geographical perspective. The tDF (Israeli defense forces) is primarily based on reserve forces, whereas the Arab militaries are mainly active. Therefor the deployment of the Israeli reserves depends on early warning, a decision of mobilization and its execution. Moreover, Israel has no strategic depth and its vital objectives are very close to the borders. These factors indicate the significance of the surprise attack and the need for intelligence warning, as a fundamental issue in the national security doctrine.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed the ways in which individuals communicate various emotions towards their friends within the circumplex model and found that the expressions of joy and sadness in friendships are contingent upon individuals' age as well as gender.
Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter addresses the ways in which individuals communicate various emotions towards their friends. The emotional communication of friends within the circumplex model is reviewed. Four pairs of opposing emotions—joy versus sadness, acceptance versus disgust, fear versus anger, and surprise versus anticipation comprise the domain of primary emotions. An additional four pairs of opposing emotions—love versus remorse, submission versus contempt, awe versus aggressiveness, and optimism versus disappointment—comprise the domain of secondary emotions. The chapter discusses each of the pairs of opposing emotions. The expressions of joy and sadness in friendships are contingent upon individuals' age as well as gender. Although the propensity towards expressing joy and sadness remains constant, individuals' expression of joy and sadness may become more muted as they develop and presumably succumb to societal norms. In adolescent and adult friendships, individuals may feel aggressive and act accordingly when they expect to be made angry by their peers. Aggressive feelings often are communicated through accusatory “you” statements. Such statements, in turn, may create psychological distance within friendships to the extent that they evoke alienation as well as relationship-threatening, aggressive verbal and nonverbal responses from the recipients of those statements.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this article, the main problems they have posed have rarely been expressed in terms of "survival" but instead were expressed as "growth" rather than "decreasing" problems.
Abstract: Looking back over many years of work with voluntary agencies, the main problems they have posed have rarely been expressed in terms of ‘survival’. Naturally, agencies have fallen by the wayside, but growth rather than decline has more often than not been the main leitmotif. This remains the case today. For example, in recent research with housing associations the management of growth was one of the dominant themes raised by association directors and chairs (Billis, Ashby, Ewart and Rochester, 1994). (Another, which will come as no great surprise, was the role of governing bodies.)


Journal ArticleDOI
25 Sep 1996
TL;DR: The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the full range of grammaticality and interpretational differences attested in adjunct wh-questions with NPIs, and relate the surprise readings of adjunct questions to the factive nature of reason and manner adverbials.
Abstract: Negative Polarity Items (NPIs) are known to be licensed in wh-questions. But not all wh-questions behave alike with respect to NPI licensing. As pointed out in Han and Siegel (1996), while all argument wh-questions with NPIs can have a RHETORICAL QUESTION reading, only a subset of them can have a true wh-question reading. In this paper, we point out that adjunct wh-questions with NPIs cannot have a true wh-question reading.1 Questions with why and how have a SURPRISE READING, either a QUESTION SURPRISE reading or a RHETORICAL SURPRISE reading. Questions with when and where can have a question surprise, rhetorical surprise reading or rhetorical question reading. We define these readings in 2. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the full range of grammaticality and interpretational differences attested in adjunct wh-questions with NPIs. In 2, we describe the range of data. In 3, we account for the non-existence of a true question reading in adjunct wh-questions with NPIs. In 4, we provide an analysis of when and where questions with the rhetorical question reading. In 5, we relate the surprise readings of adjunct questions to the factive nature of reason and manner adverbials. In 6, we address the source of the surprise readings which are found in adjunct questions with NPIs and what is responsible for licensing NPIs in these questions under the surprise readings.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a collection of documents concerning Felice Romani, a figure central to early nineteenth-century operatic life, presents an image both complex and constantly shifting; and the tasks of the librettist are always interwoven with those of other theatrical personalities: impresarios, singers and composers.
Abstract: As anyone who has worked in the theatre will know, the journey from deciding to stage a work to its performance has two characteristics: the close interdependence of various artistic and organisational forces, and unpredictability. It should thus come as no surprise that a collection of documents concerning Felice Romani, a figure central to early nineteenth-century operatic life, presents an image both complex and constantly shifting; nor that in such sources the tasks of the librettist, even one of distinction, are always interwoven with those of other theatrical personalities: impresarios, singers and composers, administrators, executives, mediators, journalists, dancers, set-designers, craftsmen and factotums. This exploration of Romani and his trade seeks to describe these collaborations, while remaining sensitive to those fundamental aspects of nineteenth-century librettistic work that were their raison d'etre. It will therefore be useful to proceed in two stages: first, to reflect on the nature and function of Romani's dramatic-poetic creations; then to provide synchronic sketches of his working relationships, dwelling on three of the most important – with theatrical institutions, with singers and with composers.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: The title of this essay is meant to surprise, disturb, and hopefully intrigue the student of international relations as mentioned in this paper, by focusing upon identities in Europe and by making the peculiar claim that these can be read and re-read in some way.
Abstract: The title of this essay is meant to surprise, disturb and hopefully intrigue the student of international relations. The title might be said to be trying to ‘make strange’ the familiar features of this field of study1. Strange or unusual approaches may produce strange or unusual responses; different ways of thinking about the complex European political environment in which we live. By focusing upon identities in Europe and by making the peculiar claim that these can be ‘read’ in some way, this essay tries to challenge our established way of thinking about European politics and to open up issues previously marginalised or disregarded. The essay begins by discussing what we mean by identity in international relations, turns to the idea that we can think about ‘Europe’ as a text and then considers the various textualities or ways that this political text can be ‘read’ and ‘re-read’.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The use of virtual reality technologies, the telecommunication of visualizations, interactive media, connections to research laboratories in outer space, or the electronic classroom being a room in your own home are images dragged from the visionary's closet.
Abstract: All too often the discussion of the “teacher of the future” is focused on science fiction. The use of virtual reality technologies, the telecommunication of visualizations, interactive media, connections to research laboratories in outer space, or the electronic classroom being a room in your own home are images dragged from the visionary's closet. What passes for vision is a look into the future through digital lenses. Digital technologies are the given; “being digital” in the future is no surprise. What will be a surprise is that teachers will have more power, more influence, and more work. The new technologies are virtual cement mixers that make abstractions concrete. The ability to literally see physics theories or social interactions by creating digital models is a reality. There will be no subject that cannot be comprehended, no students who cannot learn math or science or Shakespeare because they “don't get it.” What they will not be able to see is that ideas and the technologies that have rendered them have histories. And those histories are the ground upon which coherent understanding is built. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.



Journal ArticleDOI
Sarah Wood1
01 Jan 1996-Angelaki