Showing papers on "Surprise published in 1997"

Facial emotion recognition using multi-modal information

Abstract: Facial emotion recognition will become vitally important in future multi-cultural visual communication systems, for emotion translation between cultures, which may be considered analogous to speech translation. However so far the recognition of facial emotions is mainly addressed by computer vision researchers, based on facial display. Also detection of vocal expressions of emotions can be found in research work done by acoustic researchers. Most of these research paradigms are devoted purely to visual or purely to auditory human emotion detection. However we found that it is very interesting to consider both these auditory and visual information together, for processing, since we hope this kind of multi-modal information processing will become a datum of information processing in future multimedia era. By several intensive subjective evaluation studies we found that human beings recognise anger, happiness, surprise and dislike by their visual appearance, compared to voice only detection. When the audio track of each emotion clip is dubbed with a different type of auditory emotional expression, still anger, happiness and surprise were video dominant. However the dislike emotion gave mixed responses to different speakers. In both studies we found that sadness and fear emotions were audio dominant. As a conclusion, we propose a method of facial emotion detection by using a hybrid approach, which uses multi-modal information for facial emotion recognition.

A Componential Approach to the meaning of facial expressions.

Abstract: When we want to know what someone is thinking, how they are feeling, or what they might do, the first place we frequently look is to their face. This makes considerable sense because the human face is capable of generating expressions associated with a wide range of affective states; the grimace of pain, the sneer of contempt, the glare of anger, the averted eyes of shame, the wide-eyed look of surprise, the intent stare of interest, the quizzical look of puzzlement, the frozen stare of terror, the radiant smile of joy, the sly grin of mischief, and much more, all emanate from the face. Indeed, it could be argued that the face has the only skeletal muscles of the body that are used, not to move ourselves, but to move others. Given that the face is an important channel of social communication, among the questions that arise are: What are the major messages that are communicated through this channel, and how are they encoded? Facial actions can clearly be used to communicate information other than an individual's emotional state (see Bavelas, Black, Lemery, & Mullett, 1986; Bavelas & Chovil, chapter 15, this volume; Ekman, 1979; Fridlund, 1994). However, from Darwin (1872/1965) to the present, the main focus of research on facial expression has been on the expression of emotion, and for the bulk of this chapter, we maintain this focus.

Stress, anxiety and coping: The multidimensional interaction model.

Abstract: Donald O.Hebb Award for Distinguished Contribution to Psychology as a ScienCe (1997) / Prix Donald O. Hebb pour contribution remarquable a la psychologie en tant que science (1997)AbstractThe multidimensional interaction model of stress, anxiety and coping processes is discussed and tested. The aim is to advance our understanding of the systematic nature of coping processes in relation to psychological variables such as anxiety, as well as to determine how coping is related to other personality and situational variables, and to physical and mental well being. Coping styles and strategies mediate between antecedent stressful events, and such consequences as anxiety, psychological distress and somatic complaints.Task-oriented coping is most efficacious in a controllable situation, while emotion-oriented coping is most efficacious in an uncontrollable situation. While avoidance-oriented coping may be initially appropriate as a reaction to stress, in the long run task-oriented coping is most efficacious. A number of laboratory studies assessing the multidimensional interaction model are reviewed. These studies have both theoretical and practical implications, and contribute to empirical knowledge about stress, coping processes, and personality.PrologueIt gives me great pleasure to be the 1997 recipient of the Canadian Psychological Association Donald O. Hebb Award for Distinguished Contribution to Psychology as a Science. It is doubly delicious because of my past associations with McGill University and specifically with Professor Donald Hebb. I was a student of Hebb in that I took Introductory Psychology and a Graduate Seminar in Psychology from him. Although my undergraduate degree was in Mathematics and Physics, Don Hebb accepted me into the M.Sc. program in Psychology at McGill. He was not interested in how many Psychology courses one had taken but was rather interested in whether a student was capable of thinking and focussing on issues rather than facts. (I might add, parenthetically, that I probably would not be accepted into the Graduate Programme in Psychology at York, my home University, because I did not have the requisite eight undergraduate psychology courses. Now, back to McGill.)The Graduate Seminar with Hebb on the "Organization of Behavior" was and still is the best Psychology course I ever took. He focussed on concepts, issues and encouraged us to think and to challenge his ideas.Not only did Don Hebb teach us how to think clearly and concisely, but he also taught us how to express ourselves in seminar presentations. We were limited to 10-minute presentations. At 9 minutes, Professor Hebb would start tapping on the table and at 10 minutes you were history even if you were in the middle of a word. This was a very sobering experience, indeed! With respect to revising papers, he suggested we discard our drafts and start afresh, because none of us could part with our "pearls of wisdom". I must admit I have never been able to do this -- much as I have tried. I had planned a much longer paper, but in tribute to Hebb, I have cut it down.With respect to Comprehensive Exams, Hebb would contact us by surprise a few days before the exam and ask us to appear. He said he knew that we were frightened, but to calm down. He wanted to know how well we could think and conceptualize; not how well we could memorize.The "Organization of Behavior: A Neuropsychological Theory" (Hebb, 1949) (affectionately known by us as "The Bible") has provided the foundation for the cognitive revolution in psychology and many aspects of physiological psychology. His concepts of "cell assemblies" and "phase sequences" developed in the 1940s are very relevant today. This book is probably one of the most seminal psychology books in this century and he is probably the most eminent psychologist Canada has produced. I still cherish, some 40 plus years later, the skills, values, and orientations I learned from Prof. …

The Emotions: An Integrative Approach

Abstract: Publisher Summary The emotions play a central role in most theories of personality. Yet, personality psychologists have shown a remarkable tolerance for ambiguity with regard to the nature of emotions. More often than not, emotional concepts are used in a global, undifferentiated fashion or else in a manner unique to each theory. There are six kinds of variables that have played important roles in psychological theories of emotion—(1) cognitive appraisals, (2) physiological change, (3) expressive reactions, (4) instrumental acts, (5) verbal behavior, and (6) feelings. The appraisal is itself a kind of response, an imposition of meaning on events. Psychological phenomena may become associated with physiological responses on the basis of shared symbolic meaning, rather than on any empirically demonstrated functional relationship. Expressive reactions, especially facial expressions, have played a crucial role in the study of emotion. The term facial expressions mean joy, surprise, sadness, anger etc. Verbal behavior can be described as what is said and the way it is said. The terms “feeling” and “emotion” are often used interchangeably. This has led some theorists to assume that emotions are really feelings or at least that feelings are essential features of emotions.

The language of emotions : conceptualization, expression, and theoretical foundation

Abstract: 1. Introduction (by Niemeier, Susanne) 2. I. Theoretical issues in the analysis of emotion 3. Is the "psychologic" of trust universal? (by Smedslund, Jan) 4. The expressive function of language: Towards a cognitive semantic approach (by Foolen, Ad) 5. Toward a semiotic theory of affect (by Oller, Jr., John W.) 6. Emotions as cause and the cause of emotions (by Dirven, Rene) 7. II. The conceptualization of emotions in specific cultures 8. Dholuo emotional language: An overview (by Omondi, Lucia) 9. The prepositions we use in the construal of emotions: Why do we say fed up with by sick and tired of? (by Osmond, Meredith) 10. Space, reference, and emotional involvement (by Inchaurralde Besga, Carlos) 11. Surprise, surprise: The iconicity-conventionality scale of emotions (by Kryk-Kastovsky, Barbara) 12. III. Developmental approaches to emotions 13. The acquisition of verbal expressions for internal states in German: A descriptive, explorative, longitudinal study (by Kauschke, Christina) 14. On the usage of emotional language: A developmental view of the tip of an iceberg (by Bodor, Peter) 15. Emotion talk(s): The role of perspective in the construction of emotions (by Bamberg, Michael) 16. A response to Michael Bamberg (by Wierzbicka, Anna) 17. IV. Emotions in discourse 18. French interjections and their use in discourse: ah dis donc les vieux souvenirs (by Drescher, Martina) 19. The contextualization of affect in reported dialogues (by Gunthner, Susanne) 20. Nonverbal expression of emotions in a business negotiation (by Niemeier, Susanne) 21. Emotions and emotional language in English and German new stories (by Ungerer, Friedrich) 22. Subject Index

Bayesian ikference procedures derived via the concept of relative surprise

Abstract: We consider the problem of deriving Bayesian inference procedures via the concept of relative surprise. The mathematical concept of surprise has been developed by I.J. Good in a long sequence of papers. We make a modification to this development that permits the avoidance of a serious defect; namely, the change of variable problem. We apply relative surprise to the development of estimation, hypothesis testing and model checking procedures. Important advantages of the relative surprise approach to inference include the lack of dependence on a particular loss function and complete freedom to the statistician in the choice of prior for hypothesis testing problems. Links are established with common Bayesian inference procedures such as highest posterior density regions, modal estimates and Bayes factors. From a practical perspective new inference procedures arise that possess good properties.

"I've Never Seen Anything Like It": Overstatement, Understatement, and Irony

Abstract: Two experiments tested the extent to which surprise is indicated by overstatement, understatement, and irony. When events mm out unexpectedly and the expectations of characters were explicit, irony was more effective than overstatement and understatement. When expectations were not explicit and the situation had a negative outcome, overstatement was more effective than irony and understatement. The results show that the expressions do more than provide an inconsistency to trigger conversational implicature. The implications of these findings for theories of nonliteral language comprehension are discussed.

Is the meaning perceived in facial expression independent of its context

Abstract: We see infants smile when they encounter an adult. We see adults smile when they watch a slapstick cartoon. We see people weep at homages and funerals. We see teenagers frown when their computers flash a strange message, and teachers frown when a teenager makes an inappropriate remark. Smiles, frowns, and other facial configurations described as “expressions of emotion” are highly meaningful cues in our perception of others. This chapter concerns the meaning perceived in such facial expressions, and, specifically, whether that meaning depends on the context in which the expression occurs. (By “context” we mean the situational events that surround the facial movement, and we use the words situation and context interchangeably.) Common sense suggests yes . As with any behavior, facial expressions are embedded in a context; they happen at a particular time (e.g., while gazing at someone) and in a particular place (e.g., at a funeral). Psychological wisdom says that any perception is an interaction between the stimulus and its context (between the figure and its ground), and ethologists have found that animal messages get their specific meaning through context (Hinde, 1982; Smith, 1977). What, then, are the figure–ground interactions between facial expressions and context? The answer implicit in the mainstream view of facial expression is very simple: There are none. Most research on facial expressions presupposes that they have meaning independent of their context or, in other words, that the context plays no essential role in the recognition of emotions from facial expressions. A specific facial expression means happiness, surprise, fear, or whatever, irrespective of the occasion of its occurrence.

The Surprise of Ethnography

Abstract: This speech to an NIMH audience is about the process of discovery in ethnography and the hazards of presumptive universals in research on family life practices, emotions, moral development, and representations of the life cycle.

Code-switching: Language Selection in Three Strasbourg Department Stores

Abstract: Code-switching (CS) can be defined as the use of two or more languages in the same conversation or utterance. This is a common occurrence in many parts of the world in situations of native bi- or multilingualism (e.g. Africa, India), immigration (Europe, the United States), and regional minorities. As millions of people use more than one language in their daily lives, it is no surprise to find that CS is a far from homogeneous phenomenon and that the actual behaviour involved varies depending on the sociolinguistic circumstances as well as the language combination concerned.

Homo invictus: The indomitable species.

Abstract: Donald O.Hebb Award for Distinguished Contribution to Psychology as aScience (1996) / Prix Donald O. Hebb pour contribution remarquable a lapsychologie en rant que science (1996)AbstractMany human lives are marked by periods of danger, deprivation, andchallenge. Psychology and related disciplines have traditionallyemphasized the destructive consequences of such events. More recently, abeginning has been made toward balancing this one-sided perspective withgrowing interest in coping and salutogenic (health-enhancing) reactions toadversity. This paper reviews evidence from laboratory experiments onrestricted stimulation, field studies in polar stations, archival analysesof decision-making under stress, and interviews with Holocaust survivors,which attests to the fortitude and resilience of human beings in the faceof severe environmental demands. Psychologists should address the manyremaining questions -- theoretical, scientific, and practical --concerning such positive reactions to even extreme stressors.I am grateful to the Canadian Psychological Association for bestowingupon me the 1996 Donald O. Hebb Award. I have two reasons for beingespecially pleased about the award. One is that it recalls my link with,and debt to, Donald Hebb, who among his many important contributions wasthe pioneer of research on how human beings are affected by stimulusrestriction, a question that has occupied much of my scientific attentionover the past three decades.The second is that, as the citation for my award indicated, I am ageneralist in an era of ever-increasing scientific specialization. Myresearch methods cover laboratory experiments, field observations,psychophysiological measures, paper and pencil tests, interviews, andarchival analyses; the areas in which I do research include environmental,social, personality, political, cognitive, and health psychology. I havesometimes wondered whether my energies would have been better concentratedin one area rather than being focussed, sequentially or simultaneously, onwhatever question seemed most intriguing at a given time. In retrospect,I'm happy that I followed my interests wherever they led me; but it wasgratifying to discover that my fellow psychologists also consider this tohave been a fruitful strategy.Actually, while my enthusiasms have been varied, they were notcompletely random. I discovered one connecting thread only a few yearsago, when I was being interviewed for an oral history project involvingchild survivors of the Holocaust. The interviewer asked me what the commontheme was in my apparently unconnected areas of research. I told him thatI recognized none; but thinking about it afterwards, I realized that myresearch has had one central topic: how human beings react to and copewith events that range from the unpleasant to the catastrophic --experiences that I subsume under the term, "challenging".In each of my research areas, most of my colleagues were concentratingon the aversive aspects and adverse consequences of challengingsituations. But I kept winding up, often to my own surprise, with resultsand interpretations that revealed that all of these experiences andenvironments also had pleasant features and favourable outcomes. Not onlythat, but it became clear that many participants in such experiencesthemselves had recognized and reported these positive characteristicsalong with negative ones.The stressful experiences that I have studied include some that arenovel but not harmful, as well as some that are traumaticallylife-threatening -- from participation in laboratory experiments onreduced sensory input, through living in remote and isolated capsules suchas polar and space stations, solitary confinement in prison, to being thetarget of genocidal persecution. At the most severe end of this range, itis clear that some experiences are so shattering as to leave very few ifany survivors without physical or psychological scars; and, because peopledo vary in their ability to overcome adverse circumstances, even less direevents have traumatic effects on some. …

Surprise down under: The secret history of Australia's nuclear ambitions

Abstract: (1997). Surprise down under: The secret history of Australia's nuclear ambitions. The Nonproliferation Review: Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-20.

Surprise in the Context of Achievement: The Role of Outcome Valence and Importance

Abstract: Five experiments examined the eliciting conditions of surprise in achievement situations. The present research tested an extension of the commonly accepted approach of regarding surprise as an emotion elicited by the unexpectedness of events. Specifically, the present extension posits that outcome valence and importance have effects on expectancy formation and thereby on surprise if expectancies are disconfirmed. It is posited that an achievement outcome's valence, importance, and expectancy are confounded because positive valence and high importance of an outcome are correlated with high desirability, which in turn increases expectancy. Consequently, an important failure should contain the highest expectancy-disconfirmation and thus elicit the highest surprise. Furthermore, in contrast to a thesis proposed by Weiner, Russel, and Lerman (1978, 1979), surprise was expected to be independent of the attribution of an outcome to luck or chance. The results of all five studies supported the present reasoning in experiments using vignettes (Studies 1 to 4), as well as in an actual achievement situation (Study 5). All of these studies provide empirical evidence of the predicted interaction effect between outcome valence and importance on surprise elicitation via expectancy-disconfirmation and thus lend support to the present extension of the expectancy-disconfirmation approach. But contrary to the approach suggested by Weiner et al., no general or causal relationships were found between attributions and surprise.

Contrastive Semantics and Cultural Psychology: 'Surprise' in Malay and English

Abstract: This paper argues that psychology has yet to come fully to grips with the extent of semantic variation between languages, and that it can benefit, in this regard, from certain developments in lingu...

Marketing the Soul: from the Ideology of Consumption to Consumer Subjectivity

Abstract: It comes as no surprise to recognise that just as the physical sciences facilitated the control over and exploitation of nature for human purposes, so the social sciences have been massively implicated in the exercise of power in the management of populations and individual subjects. Foucault (1973, p. 345) drew our attention to the transition in nineteenth-century Western culture whereupon human beings transformed themselves from being merely the agents of knowledge to also being its object. However, the development of the human sciences was not just about adding another object to the scientific enterprise; the human subjects of its concern were already producing representations of the life, production and language by which their existence was governed. In short, the human sciences have as their object of knowledge beings who themselves have a prior claim to produce such knowledge for themselves in their everyday lives. Theories about human life are, then, second-order constructs or theories relating to everyday first-order theoretical representations (Giddens, 1979a, p. 12, 1984, p. 284; see also Mouzelis, 1993, p. 688).

Labor, The State, and Class Struggle

Abstract: After a long period of sustained attack by governments of various stripes, a steady deterioration of working and living standards, and declines in membership and militancy, there are encouraging signs that organized labor is moving again. This may come as a surprise to many, not least on the left, who have long since written off the labor movement as an oppositional force; and it may begin to challenge some of the most widespread assumptions about the nature and direction of contemporary capitalism, assumptions often shared by activists and intellectuals on the left as well as the right.This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

Imagine my surprise

Abstract: (1997). “Imagine My Surprise”. Journal of Lesbian Studies: Vol. 1, Classics in Lesbian Studies Part II, pp. 155-176.

America's Search for a Technological Solution to the Arms Race: The Surprise Attack Conference of 1958 and a Challenge for “Eisenhower Revisionists”

Abstract: The allure of Dwight D. Eisenhower for historians emerges largely from the former president’s profundity and subtlety of character. Unlike his more straightforward predecessor, Harry S. Truman, the heroic general approached foreign affairs with thoughtful, informed goals and aspirations, often disguised by ambivalent and apparently passive public positions. Richard H. Immerman and Fred I. Greenstein have written at length about the perspicacity of Eisenhower’s analysis of the nuclear revolution and his “hidden-hand” leadership. Ingeniously, the so-called revisionists argue, the president used threats, covert activities, and restraint in different circumstances to produce one of the most successful and cost-efficient foreign policy records of any American commander in chief. In the aftermath of the Vietnam War observers have trouble arguing with Eisenhower’s alleged boast: “The United States never lost a soldier or a foot of ground in my administration. We kept the peace. People asked how it happened – by God, it didn’t just happen, I’ll tell you that.”

A Community of One: Masculine Autobiography and Autonomy in Nineteenth-Century Britain / Child-Loving: The Erotic Child and Victorian Culture

Abstract: Danahay, Martin A. A Community of One: Masculine Autobiography and Autonomy in Nineteenth-Century Britain. Albany: SUNY Press, 1993. x + 232 pp. $64.50 cloth; $21.95 paper. Kincaid, James R. Child-Loving: The Erotic Child and Victorian Culture. New York: Routledge, 1992; 2nd ed., 1994. xi + 413 pp. $35.00 cloth; $16.95 paper. There is underway a refreshing revision of Victorian literary and cultural studies. This is evidenced by two books in particular, published since the late autumn of 1992. The two, Child-Loving and A Community of One, by James R. Kincaid and Martin A. Danahay, respectively, offer significant contributions to nineteenth-century scholarship in their differing fields. Although the diversity, of both subject matter and approach, can only be warmly praised and unequivocally welcomed, in certain cases the arguments may well elicit knee-jerk responses. Indeed, with regard to Kincaid's book, this has already been the case in Great Britain, and not confined to academic circles. Still, if we come to these books with the open minds and the flexibility of thought they require, we will be rewarded by freshness without modish fashionability, theoretical sophistication, subtlety of reading, and complexity of conceptualization. It is always a pleasant surprise to acquire new knowledge. It is equally a surprise, though not necessarily a pleasant one, to have one's beliefs, views, and dogmas challenged in ways that, if one is honest, force one to re-evaluate one's own position. To find that one's knowledge is merely a kind of cultural "knowingness," a form of received and critically unchallenged social wisdom that is used to contain society in its current form, can be a shock. The shock to a particular world-view can be such that one might not wish to read, but, instead, have that which offends banned, censored. James Kincaid's Child-Loving: The Erotic Child and Victorian Culture has already evinced such a response, from one British reviewer, the critic John Carey, in the national newspaper, The Sunday Times. Carey's review provides the most obvious of responses to Kincaid's book. It veers between ad hominem diatribe and thinly veiled accusations that Kincaid was suggesting we all undress little children and enjoy them at our own leisure. Yes, the book does deal with the uncomfortable subject of pedophilia and the cultural construction of pedophiles as monsters in our society, as distinct from other more "hidden" forms of child abuse, as though identifying the pedophile meant letting the child abuser in the home off the hook. But Kincaid's position, pace John Carey, is not the same as advocating pedophilia as a "socially acceptable" practice. Carey's review does not seem so much to get steamed up about, although it does typify, both in the Britain and the United States, a certain formal response to a socially sensitive subject, to which conservative critics on both sides of the Atlantic overreact. The veneer of reasoned thinking on which "quality journalism" relies (as distinct from the more obvious excesses of its "yellow" cousin), whether in British newspapers such as the London Times, or The New York Times or The New York Review of Books, soon becomes peeled off at a moment of ideological tenderness (if you recall the "furore" over Paul de Man and, by extension "deconstruction" in American popular criticism, you should have a sense of what I am describing). What is particularly wrong about overreaction, whatever its ideological positioning, is, as we all know from personal experience, the plain wrong-headedness of the reviewer. Carey's review, as the example of this, gave one the sense that he just had not read the book carefully enough, so incensed had he become by certain phrases and terms in the introduction. In Britain at the time of ChildLoving's initial publication the negative response went further, bringing about rabid responses in certain areas of tabloid journalism (of the kind thankfully absent in the United States), which demanded that the department of the Police force responsible for inquiries into matters relating to vice be called in to investigate, while a Conservative politician allegedly raised the question of the book's propriety in the House of Commons. …

Ads — part of our lives: Linguistic awareness of powerful advertising

Abstract: Introduction Advertising is a discourse that epitomizes ‘powerful’ language. Language is not only static, rigid and precise but also dynamic, volatile, fluid and malleable. These characteristics are primarily prominent in its social function, as language is used in various discourse types or genres. Language is particularly dynamic, and is malleable in its interplay with social systems in various discourse types, such as advertising. Such is the significance of the social function of language that Michel Foucault defines culture in terms of ‘orders of discourse’.2 Therefore, it has come as no surprise that in recent years attention has shifted from what has been called ‘the scientific study of language‘ — the study of language within sentence boundaries — to the study of language as the raw material of a multiplicity of discourse types, such as literature, the news and advertising.

On Cycles and Chaos in Economics

Abstract: The possibility of cycles and chaos arising from nonlinear dynamics in economics emerged in the 1980s, and it came as a surprise. This paper surveys developments in this literature.

Children's and adults' everyday talk about surprise

Abstract: Everyday uses of the term ‘surprise’ were examined in order to describe children's early experience with the term and explore links to children's developing conception of surprise. Data obtained from CHILDES (MacWhinney & Snow, 1990) included 123 uses of ‘surprise’ by children (N = 10, aged 2:0–5:5) and 118 by adults talking to children. Each use was coded for reference to expectation (expected, unexpected, or indeterminate) and affect (positive, negative, or indeterminate), as well as on other aspects of content (agreements = 91–100 per cent). From ages 2 to 5, children increasingly referred to unexpected events and decreasingly to positive affect or happy events, relative to other sorts of references; adults' speech showed little change on those dimensions. Implications for an account of conceptual development are discussed.

Surprise - and Discovery? - in the Near-Death Experience

Abstract: Article exploring expressions of surprise and puzzlement that lend a ring of authenticity to self-reports of near-death experiences (NDEs). Surprise typically indicates the discovery of novel features of reality during the cognition-reality interplay that makes learning possible. If at least some NDE surprises are discoveries in a nonsubjective sense, then that cognition-reality interplay can continue during moments near death as subject learn that self and reality must be understood to include a nonmaterial realm.

Why Democrats Shouldn't Vote (With Acknowledgements to R. Erikson):

Abstract: Controversy persists over the link between turnout and the likelihood of success of Democratic candidates. To the surprise of practically everyone, we present clear and compelling evidence that hig...

Reasoning About Unpredicted Change and Explicit Time

Abstract: Reasoning about unpredicted change consists in explaining observations by events; we propose here an approach for explaining time-stamped observations by surprises, which are simple events consisting in the change of the truth value of a fluent. A framework for dealing with surprises is defined. Minimal sets of surprises are provided together with time intervals where each surprise has occurred, and they are characterized from a model-based diagnosis point of view. Then, a probabilistic approach of surprise minimisation is proposed.

Surprise and Intelligence Towards a Clearer Understanding

Abstract: : The thesis of this article is that strategic surprise is difficult to prevent, even in the face of accurate and timely intelligence (including overhead imagery), because it is based on exploiting a leader's or nation's personality and characteristics as well as the bureaucracies that serve them. Historical evidence seems to indicate that strategic surprise in the twentieth century has rarely been prevented despite a plethora of available intelligence. If the presence of reliable and timely intelligence does not prevent surprise, then a reevaluation of our current thinking is in order. Strategic surprise, in this case, may not only be possible, it may be inevitable. This is a sword that also cuts both ways. while we may not be able to prevent strategic surprise, we can expect to use this principle of war to our military advantage. This article examines the elements of strategic surprise-its foundation, nature, and potential. It proposes a notional definition for strategic surprise that offers a more relevant application to the military art. Additionally, it identifies and examines the validity of assumptions that form the basis for military doctrine on strategic surprise. It uses historical case studies to test the assumptions of current doctrine that link the availability of intelligence to strategic surprise. Finally, it draws conclusions and makes recommendations for those at the operational level and those involved in restructuring a shrinking military force.