Showing papers on "Surprise published in 2003"

Differential Market Reactions to Revenue and Expense Surprises

Abstract: This study investigates investors' reactions to revenue and expense surprises around preliminary earnings announcements. Results show that investors value more highly a dollar of revenue surprise than a dollar of expense surprise. Results further show that these differential market reactions to revenue and expense surprises vary systematically for growth versus value firms and depend on (a) the proportion of variable to total costs, (b) the relative persistence of sales and expenses, and (c) the proportion of operating to total expenses. Results highlight the importance of interpreting the earnings surprise in the context of its sources—e.g. surprise in revenues or in total expenses.

What do facial expressions convey: feeling states, behavioral intentions, or action requests?

Abstract: Emotion theorists assume certain facial displays to convey information about the expresser's emotional state. In contrast, behavioral ecologists assume them to indicate behavioral intentions or action requests. To test these contrasting positions, over 2,000 online participants were presented with facial expressions and asked what they revealed-feeling states, behavioral intentions, or action requests. The majority of the observers chose feeling states as the message of facial expressions of disgust, fear, sadness, happiness, and surprise, supporting the emotions view. Only the anger display tended to elicit more choices of behavioral intention or action request, partially supporting the behavioral ecology view. The results support the view that facial expressions communicate emotions, with emotions being multicomponential phenomena that comprise feelings, intentions, and wishes.

WORKING PARTY ON GLOBAL AND STRUCTURAL POLICIES OECD Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy: Improving Information for Policy Makers Abrupt Non-Linear Climate Change, Irreversibility and Surprise

Abstract: Abstract Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises—a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change.

The Element of Surprise in Timed Games

Abstract: We consider concurrent two-person games played in real time, in which the players decide both which action to play, and when to play it Such timed games differ from untimed games in two essential ways First, players can take each other by surprise, because actions are played with delays that cannot be anticipated by the opponent Second, a player should not be able to win the game by preventing time from diverging We present a model of timed games that preserves the element of surprise and accounts for time divergence in a way that treats both players symmetrically and applies to all ω-regular winning conditions We prove that the ability to take each other by surprise adds extra power to the players For the case that the games are specified in the style of timed automata, we provide symbolic algorithms for their solution with respect to all ω-regular winning conditions We also show that for these timed games, memory strategies are more powerful than memoryless strategies already in the case of reachability objectives

Surprise, surprise, surprise! A complexity science view of the unexpected

Abstract: Surprise can emanate from two sources: lack of sufficient information or knowledge and the basic dynamics of complex adaptive systems. The authors expand the traditional view of surprise with a complexity perspective that makes it possible to ask new questions and to consider new ways of understanding the world around us. They discuss creativity and learning as two strategies for capitalizing on the surprises that confront organizations.

A State of the Art Review on Emotional Speech Databases

Abstract: Thirty-two emotional speech databases are reviewed. Each database consists of a corpus of human speech pronounced under different emotional conditions. A basic description of each database and its applications is provided. The conclusion of this study is that automated emotion recognition on these databases cannot achieve a correct classification that exceeds 50% for the four basic emotions, i.e., twice as much as random selection. Second, natural emotions cannot be easily classified as simulated ones (i.e., acting) can be. Third, the most common emotions searched for in decreasing frequency of appearance are anger, sadness, happiness, fear, disgust, joy, surprise, and boredom.

Representing the Mental World in Children's Social Behavior: Playing Hide‐and‐Seek and Keeping a Secret

Abstract: This study examined the relationship between children's developing theory of mind and their ability to engage in two social behaviors which have, as their cognitive underpinning, the representation that what one knows may not be accessible to others. Children of 3, 4, and 5 years, in a quasi-naturalistic setting, played hide-and-seek and also were required to keep a secret about a surprise. The ability to play hide-and-seek was significantly related to children's ability to refrain from disclosing the secret, and there was a significant relationship between these behaviors and children's social cognition, as measured by theory of mind tasks. The relationship between these social behaviors and tasks measuring executive function was not significant once age was taken into account. With regard to the development of these social behaviors, few 3-year-olds, but most 4-year-olds, and almost all 5-year-olds could successfully play hide-and-seek and keep a secret. This study demonstrates the importance of the conceptual understanding of mental states in the young child's social world.

Response to commentators - Surprise, surprise, surprise! A complexity science view of the unexpected

Abstract: Surprise can emanate from two sources: lack of sufficient information or knowledge and the basic dynamics of complex adaptive systems. The authors expand the traditional view of surprise with a complexity perspective that makes it possible to ask new questions and to consider new ways of understanding the world around us. They discuss creativity and learning as two strategies for capitalizing on the surprises that confront organizations.

See How 'Good' We Are: The Dangers of Using Corporate Social Activities in Communication Campaigns

Abstract: Hypotheses Communicating about CSR activities is likely to create higher expectations with regard to the company’s social involvement. It was therefore hypothesized that customers‐learning that the company has committed socially irresponsible acts‐would experience a strong ‘negative surprise’ (i.e., surprise followed by negative emotions) and, as a result, would react even more negatively than if the company had not promoted itself as a socially responsible company (see Vanhamme and Snelders 2003). More precisely‐ after accusations of irresponsible acts‐deterioration with respect to the perceptions of the company and its products, trust in the company and purchase intentions were hypothesized to be larger for companies promoting themselves as socially responsible than for companies not using this element in their communication campaigns (H1). It was also hypothesized that surprise would have a direct and indirect influence (via its amplification of negative affective reactions) on these ‘deterioration’ variables (H2). Methodology The hypotheses were tested via a 2 (pre/post measure vs. post measure only) by 2 (CSR vs. NO CSR) design. Two out of the four conditions involved a measure of dependent variables (i.e., company and product perceptions, purchase intentions, and trust in the company) before and after respondents read a newspaper article accusing the company of committing irresponsible acts. In one of the two conditions, respondents read‐before the newspaper article‐ a company’s public relations (PR) press release mentioning several CSR activities whereas no information about CSR activities was mentioned in the other condition. The last two conditions replicated the first two conditions but measures of the dependent variables were only collected once; after the negative information about the company’s irresponsible acts (i.e., newspaper article). 244 respondents were randomly assigned to the four conditions. Results The analysis of the results showed that the respondents who read the PR press release with CSR elements had a more positive perception of the company and a higher score for credibility and integrity (i.e., trust) than the respondents who read the PR press release without CSR elements. Moreover‐after the respondents read the newspaper article with the negative CSR-related information‐scores for the perceptions of the company and its products, purchase intentions, credibility and integrity were significantly lower in all four conditions. In addition‐after the negative CSR-related information‐no significant difference was found with respect to the perceptions of the company and its products, purchase intentions, and credibility scores between respondents who read the description with CSR elements and those who read the description without CSR elements. Integrity, however, was significantly lower for the former group of respondents. Lastly, as expected, the deteriorations (difference between the pre-measure and the post-measure) with respect to ‘company perception’, and ‘integrity’ were larger for respondents who received the PR press release with CSR elements. Results for the mediation analysis further showed that fear and disgust partially mediated the influence of surprise on the deterioration of the company and product perceptions; anger, disgust and fear partially mediated the influence of surprise on the deterioration of purchase intentions; and anger and fear partially mediated the influence of surprise on the deterioration of integrity. Moreover, the direct influence of surprise on the deterioration of the company perception, purchase intentions and integrity seemed to be systematically stronger for the respondents who received the PR press release with CSR elements than the others.

An Overview of EBMT

Abstract: In the last ten to fifteen years there has been a significant amount of research in Machine Translation within a ‘new’ paradigm of empirical approaches, often labelled collectively as ‘Example-based’ approaches. The first manifestation of this approach caused some surprise and hostility among observers more used to different ways of working, but the techniques were quickly adopted and adapted by many researchers, often creating hybrid systems. This paper reviews the various research efforts within this paradigm reported to date, and attempts a categorisation of different manifestations of the general approach. This paper first appeared in 1999 in Machine Translation 14:113-157. It has been updated with a small number of revisions, and references to more recent work.

Intelligence Failure and Need for Cognitive Closure: On the Psychology of the Yom Kippur Surprise

Abstract: This paper uses newly available evidence to shed light on the circumstances and causes of the 6 October 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack of Egyptian and Syrian forces on Israeli positions at the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights. The evidence suggests that an important circumstance that accounts for the surprise effect these actions managed to produce, despite ample warning signs, is traceable to a high need for cognitive closure among major figures in the Israeli intelligence establishment. Such a need may have prompted leading intelligence analysts to “freeze” on the conventional wisdom that an attack was unlikely and to become impervious to information suggesting that it was imminent. The discussion considers the psychological forces affecting intelligence operations in predicting the initiation of hostile enemy activities, and it describes possible avenues of dealing with the psychological impediments to open–mindedness that may pervasively characterize such circumstances.

An Empirical Study on Compliments and Compliment Responses in Taiwan Mandarin Conversation

Abstract: The present study explored compliments and compliment responses in Taiwan Mandarin, based on a conversation corpus. The corpus used in this analysis consists of 454 compliment/response sequences collected with the assistance of college students at Providence University, Taiwan. With regard to syntactic preference, the speakers preferred the syntactic pattern NP/PRON BE (intensifier) ADJ. With respect to the compliment topic, both college men and women complimented more on someone's appearance than on his/her ability, possessions, or personality. In responding to a compliment, they tended to express disagreement or surprise. Specifically, males were most likely to reject a compliment by disagreeing to the compliment; in contrast, females tended to respond with surprise to a compliment.

CONSUMER RESPONSE TO SEX ROLE PORTRAYALS IN ADVERTISEMENTS: Effects of Incongruity and Prejudices on Emotions and Attitudes

Abstract: This study investigates how male and female consumers in the Czech Republic respond to sex role portrayals in advertisements for a fictional cell phone service. Special emphasis is placed on integrating consumer prejudices and emotions into an incongruity-resolution framework. Prejudices were found to moderate effects of sex role incongruity on the emotional dimensions approval and disapproval. Surprise, the third emotional dimension, was directly affected by role incongruity. Downstream effects included positive (approval) and negative (disapproval, surprise) influences on attitude toward the ad. Extensions into other cultural settings and more in-depth examinations of the elaboration and processing paths, including effects on memory, are suggested for future research.

Hindi-english cross-lingual question-answering system

Abstract: We developed a cross-lingual, question-answering (CLQA) system for Hindi and English. It accepts questions in English, finds candidate answers in Hindi newspapers, and translates the answer candidates into English along with the context surrounding each answer. The system was developed as part of the surprise language exercise (SLE) within the TIDES program.

Primary care practices are full of surprises

Abstract: Primary care practices are complex adaptive systems facing the need to respond to internal and external uncertainty and surprise. For clinicians and practices to maximize their ability to proactively evolve as they respond to uncertainty and surprise, they need to understand that their practices are nonlinear systems and create the time and space for learning and reflection. This article provides principles for clinicians and staff for negotiating uncertainty and surprise in an ever-changing health care environment.

The impact of cognitive inertia on postconsumption evaluation processes

Abstract: This study sheds some light on the role of memory in satisfaction judgments. The author's findings indicate that consumers might fail to form satisfaction evaluations in an online manner in typical repeat-consumption situations. Instead of consciously reevaluating familiar products or services, consumers may choose to engage in judgment updating/formation processes only when faced with a postpurchase satisfaction inquiry. Surprise performances or inconsistent service delivery, however, greatly reduce the consumer's reliance on prior judgments. Under these conditions, consumers are motivated to spontaneously update their summary evaluations stored in memory. The implications of the memory-based nature of satisfaction judgments to service and retail managers are briefly discussed.

The more he looked inside the more Piglet wasn't there: what adopting a sociocultural perspective can help us see

Abstract: Introduction One day when Pooh Bear had nothing else to do, he thought he would do something, so he went round to Piglet's house to see what Piglet was doing. It was still snowing as he stumped over the white forest track, and he expected to find Piglet warming his toes in front of his fire, but to his surprise he saw that the door was open, and the more he looked inside the more Piglet wasn't there (Milne, 1974, p. 1). When we as teachers and researchers look, what do we see? Do we expect to see Piglet warming his toes--and is this in fact what we do see? Or is it that, like Pooh, the more we look the more we understand that what we expected to see is not there? Indeed, the more we look, the more we see remarkable things that we never noticed before. As early childhood professionals within Australia, many of us developed our understanding of early childhood education from the perspective of acknowledging the importance of the 'individual' child, who passes through universal, sequential stages of development, such as those expounded by Piaget (1973), or in Developmentally Appropriate Practices (Bredekamp, 1987). However, in some circumstances, this has resulted in a tendency to 'see' only certain things when we look at children, such as when they begin to show interest in peers, how well they can put pegs into a board, or when they 'begin to understand turn-taking'. This reflects a perspective in which: The focus is on the individual child who, irrespective of context, follows a standard sequence of biological stages that constitute a path to full realisation or a ladder-like progression to maturity ... Despite frequent talk about a holistic perspective, in this construction the child is frequently reduced to separate and measurable categories, such as social development, intellectual development, motor development. Consequently, processes which are very complex and interrelated in everyday life are isolated from one another and viewed dichotomously, instead of viewing them as intrinsically related functions that all work together in the production of change (Dahlberg, Moss and Pence, 1999, p. 46). This approach derives from a long tradition of research that informs early childhood theory and practice. Such research, dominated by preconceived ideas of what children are and know, has been conducted primarily by Euro-North American developmental psychologists, who have scientifically constructed powerful normative models of development (Woodhead, 2000). What has resulted in both teaching and research is the adoption of a somewhat deficit view of many children --those who have not reached a particular 'universal' milestone or achieved a nominated outcome, or those whose life experiences do not match those of the dominant culture. Thus, there is much concerning the diversity, complexity and richness of children's lives that is overlooked. In an attempt to make children 'fit the boxes' of norms we may lose sight of what is really occurring in their lives, and no longer notice that the door is open and Piglet is no longer there. Increasingly, however, challenges are being made to the concept of the 'universality' of childhood and children. Many are drawing attention to the diversity and complexity of childhood, and disputing the idea that decontextualised, universal norms, rules and 'truths' based on Euro-North American or Minority world views are relevant for all children (see, for example, Penn, 2000; Woodhead, 2000; Grieshaber & Cannella, 2001). Authors such as Rogoff (1990), for example, have suggested that a contextual approach to development allows for multiple directions and courses of growth, and that 'development involves progress towards local goals and valued skills' (Rogoff, 1990, p. 57). Furthermore, the relatively recent interest in the ideas of Vygotsky has provided a useful contrast to the 'universalist' framework interpreted from Piaget's work, while postmodern perspectives have been influential in examining some of the existing assumptions about childhood (see, for example, Dahlberg, Moss & Pence, 1999). …

Blame and Responsibility

Abstract: This paper looks at judgments of guilt in the face of alleged wrong-doing, be it in public or in private discourse. Its concern is not the truth of such judgments, although the complexity and contestability of such claims will be stressed. The topic, instead, is what sort of activities we are engaged in, when we make our judgments on others' conduct. To examine judging as an activity it focuses on a series of problems that can occur when we blame others. On analysis, we see that these problems take the form of performative contradictions, so that the ostensible purposes of assigning guilt to others are undermined. There is clear evidence from social psychology that blame is especially frequently and inappropriately attributed to individuals in modern Western societies. On the other hand, it has often been observed how suspicious we are about the activity of judging – thus a widespread perception that a refusal to judge is somehow virtuous. My suggestion is that the sheer difficulty of attributions of responsibility, in the face of a complex and often arbitrary moral reality, frequently defeats us. This leads to a characteristic set of distortions when we blame, so that it is no surprise that we have become suspicious of all blaming activities. Yet, the paper argues, these problems need not arise when we hold others responsible. This paper therefore investigates what, exactly, can be questionable about attempts to assign guilt, and the structural logic that lies behind these problems – what will be called, adapting a term from social psychology, a belief in a just world. Such a belief takes for granted what needs to be worked for through human activity, and therefore tends to be counter-productive in dealing with misdeeds and adverse outcomes.

To surprise or not to surprise your customers: The use of surprise as a marketing tool

Abstract: It has been contended that companies must move from satisfying their customers to delighting them (Rust, Zahorik and Keiningham 1996). It has also been observed that features that can be used to delight are those that are "surprisingly pleasant" (Rust and Oliver 2000: p.87). Many relationship marketing activities are being copied and therefore fail to provide for a long-term strategic advantage to the companies that originally launched them. Moreover, some of such activities do not work as originally intended. This article examines when and how surprise can be applied as a marketing tool in retaining a company's customers. A review of the existing literature on (1) the use of relationship-based marketing and emotion-based marketing and (2) the emotion of surprise suggests that it is close to impossible for a company to copy emotion-based marketing activities. Interestingly, the emotion of surprise has recently been proposed as being appropriate for emotion-based relationship marketing. This article argues that surprise can be an extremely efficient marketing tool, but that marketers need to be aware that some situations are more suited for using surprise than other situations. In order to reach this conclusion the article reviews empirical research on the emotion of surprise and its influence on marketing variables such as customer satisfaction, customer retention and trust.

NE Recognition Without Training Data on a Language You Don't Speak

Abstract: In this paper we describe an experiment to adapt a named entity recognition system from English to Cebuano as part of the TIDES surprise language program. With 4 person-days of effort, and with no previous knowledge of which language would be involved, no knowledge of the language in question once it was announced, and no training data available, we adapted the ANNIE system for Cebuano and achieved an F-measure of 77.5%.

Does Greater Trade Openness Reduce Inflation? Further Evidence Using Panel Data Techniques

Abstract: In this article we estimate the relation between inflation and trade openness [e.g; Romer (1993)] using modern panel data techniques. Our rationale is as follows: The higher the gains, in terms of product, in generating an inflationary "surprise", the greater the incentives will be for the government to effect such a "surprise". Therefore, in the absence of an independent monetary authority - or a credible monetary authority - able to restrain the governmental incentive to generate inflation, trade openness would act as a "brake" for the gains generated by the inflationary "surprise". Consequently, more open countries would have fewer incentives to generate inflation, thus pointing to a negative relation between inflation and trade openness.

The Lady Appears: Materializations of "Woman" in Early Monastic Literature

Abstract: According to a famous monastic saying, the Egyptian desert in Late Antiquity was the place where, as in some recent theory about gender in history, “there are no women.”1 To be sure, the desert was filled with thoughts of women, memories of abandoned wives and mothers, and demonic specters of women, but monks claimed that there were few, if any, flesh-and-blood women in their desert. Likewise, Elizabeth Clark has invited historians of Christianity to consider the prospect that our sources present us not with real women from the past, but with male authors’ fantasies about or rhetorical uses of women, no more than the gendered literary “traces” of elusive “real women.”2 Imagine, then, the surprise of a group of lay tourists—and perhaps our surprise as well—when their representative monk turned out to be really a woman:

I'm Hungry

Abstract: This lift-the-flap book combines bold illustrations, child-friendly paper-engineering and a funny surprise ending.