Topic
Surprise
About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.
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02 Aug 2004
TL;DR: The study of intelligence failures is perhaps the most academically advanced field in the field of intelligence and it is related to, and dependent on, earlier research in psychology (problems of perception); communication and information theory (the problems of signal-to-noise ratio, information bottlenecks, improved processing protocols of information, etc); theories of organizational and bureaucratic behavior (for example, problems of overlapping and duplicate intelligence work by a number of different intelligence agencies, ways to improve interagency coordination); statistics; disaster theory; mathematical theories (the study of cryptanalysis, the
Abstract: The study of intelligence failures is perhaps the most academically advanced
field in the study of intelligence.1 This is particularly true of strategic surprise,
that most dramatic and consequential of intelligence failures. Michael Handel,
who made a major contribution to the study of this issue, once listed the various
disciplines that had made contributions to its study:It is related to, and dependent on, earlier research in psychology (problems
of perception); communication and information theory (the problems of
signal-to-noise ratio, information bottlenecks, improved processing
procedures of information, etc.); theories of organizational and
bureaucratic behavior (for example, problems of overlapping and duplicate
intelligence work by a number of different intelligence agencies, ways to
improve interagency coordination); statistics; disaster theory;
mathematical theories (the study of cryptanalysis, the optimal timing of
surprise, etc.); anthropology (the study of the influence of different
cultures and their impact on mutual perceptions and misperceptions,
different attitudes toward risk acceptance); and history (the basic
information needed for detailed case studies).2
32 citations
TL;DR: Many people in higher education were caught by surprise when the nation's governors and chief state school officers announced their intention to adopt common standards for American high schools as mentioned in this paper, which was the first step towards the adoption of Common Standards for American High Schools.
Abstract: Many people in higher education were caught by surprise when the nation's governors and chief state school officers announced their intention to adopt common standards for American high schools tha...
32 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors adopt the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of volatility surprise to capture cross-market relationships.
32 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This study provides a computational approach to unveiling public emotions and concerns on the pandemic in real-time, which would potentially help policy-makers better understand people's need and thus make optimal policy.
Abstract: At the time of writing, the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused severe impacts on society, economy and people's daily lives. People constantly express their opinions on various aspects of the pandemic on social media, making user-generated content an important source for understanding public emotions and concerns. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive analysis on the affective trajectories of the American people and the Chinese people based on Twitter and Weibo posts between January 20th, 2020 and May 11th 2020. Specifically, by identifying people's sentiments, emotions (i.e., anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise) and the emotional triggers (e.g., what a user is angry/sad about) we are able to depict the dynamics of public affect in the time of COVID-19. By contrasting two very different countries, China and the Unites States, we reveal sharp differences in people's views on COVID-19 in different cultures. Our study provides a computational approach to unveiling public emotions and concerns on the pandemic in real-time, which would potentially help policy-makers better understand people's need and thus make optimal policy.
32 citations
TL;DR: Three studies provide a strong test of the hypothesis that the classic choice-from-array task constitutes a potent source of context that shapes performance and suggest several processes that may give rise to the appearance of universal emotions.
Abstract: The majority of studies designed to assess cross-cultural emotion perception use a choice-from-array task in which participants are presented with brief emotion stories and asked to choose between target and foil cues. This task has been widely criticized, evoking a lively and prolonged debate about whether it inadvertently helps participants to perform better than they otherwise would, resulting in the appearance of universality. In 3 studies, we provide a strong test of the hypothesis that the classic choice-from-array task constitutes a potent source of context that shapes performance. Participants from a remote small-scale (the Hadza hunter-gatherers of Tanzania) and 2 urban industrialized (China and the United States) cultural samples selected target vocalizations that were contrived for 6 non-English, nonuniversal emotion categories at levels significantly above chance. In studies of anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, and surprise, above chance performance is interpreted as evidence of universality. These studies support the hypothesis that choice-from-array tasks encourage evidence for cross-cultural emotion perception. We discuss these findings with reference to the history of cross-cultural emotion perception studies, and suggest several processes that may, together, give rise to the appearance of universal emotions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
32 citations