Topic
Surprise
About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.
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TL;DR: The authors hypothesize that while market participants generally underreact to new events due to conservatism, the extent of underreaction is moderated by "surprise", thus causing market participants to overreact to events that are highly surprising.
Abstract: Previous research in finance has found evidences of both overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events, but has yet to explain why investors overreact to certain events while underreacting to others. In this paper, we hypothesize that while market participants generally underreact to new events due to conservatism, the extent of underreaction is moderated by “surprise,” thus causing market participants to overreact to events that are highly surprising. We test our hypothesis using data from an in-play soccer betting market, where new events (goals) are clearly and exogenously defined, and the degree of “surprise” can be directly quantified (goals scored by underdogs are more surprising). We provide both statistical and economic evidences in support of our hypothesis.
32 citations
02 Sep 2013
TL;DR: Heart rate data gave the best result in classifying player affect, which achieved up to 90% overall accuracy, and indicated that players were more likely to experience fear from a scary event when they were in a suspense state compared to when they was in a neutral state.
Abstract: An upcoming trend of affective gaming is where a player's emotional state is used to manipulate game play. This is an interesting field to explore especially for the survival horror genre that is excellent at producing player's intense emotions. In this research, we analyzed different player affective states prior to (i.e., Neutral, Anxiety, Suspense) and after (i.e., Low-Fear, Mid-Fear, High-Fear) a scary event using an affect annotation tool to collect player self-reports of their affective states during the game. Brainwave signals, heart rate and keyboard-mouse activity were also collected for analyzing the potential of automatically detecting horror-related affect. Results indicated that players were more likely to experience fear from a scary event when they were in a suspense state compared to when they were in a neutral state. In this state, players only experienced fear after experiencing surprise. Heart rate data gave the best result in classifying player affect, which achieved up to 90% overall accuracy. This highlights the potential of using player affect in survival horror games to adapt a scary event to evoke more fear from players.
31 citations
31 Jul 2004
TL;DR: In this paper, Weinberg and Gould show that the control of movement, according to ecological psychology, is based on a continuous coupling to available perceptual information, which is part and parcel of peak performance in sport.
Abstract: Peak performance requires a vivid awareness of the environment. To have such
awareness, attention should be focused on aspects of the environment relevant
for one’s actions. According to Weinberg and Gould (1999), situation awareness
is ‘One of the least understood but most interesting and important aspects of
attentional focus in sport’ (p. 328). The ecological approach to visual perception
and action (Gibson, 1979) may offer a useful starting point for understanding
situation awareness in sport as this issue is a core theme of this approach:
perceiving the environment by detecting those sources of information that are
relevant for one’s actions. The control of movement, according to ecological psychology, is based on a continuous coupling to available perceptual information.
Given the relevance of information detection, it is no surprise that perceptual
skill is part and parcel of peak performance in sport (see Williams et al., 1999).
For instance, research has demonstrated differences in visual search behaviour
between expert and novice performers, where experts are superior in using
predictive information (i.e. advance visual cues) to guide their anticipatory
responses (e.g. Abernethy, 1987; Savelsbergh et al., 2002; Williams and Burwitz,
1993).
31 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the analyst's experience of surprise, its relation to different models of analytic listening and its function in the analytic process is illustrated and explored through a series of clinical vignettes.
Abstract: The analyst's experience of surprise, its relation to different models of analytic listening and its function in the analytic process is illustrated and explored through a series of clinical vignettes. Surprise is a crucial affective ingredient of the analyst's attention and data-gathering. It is multiply determined and inevitably reflects some discovery or rediscovery on the part of the analyst about both the patient and the analyst. In the dynamic tension of the analyst's listening there is always an interplay between expectation and surprise, as each new facet of the patient's conflictual organisation is revealed. Evenly-hovering attention entails the setting aside of conscious expectation and so maximises the potential for curiosity, surprise and discovery. The author describes the relation of surprise to transient identifications with the patient and to the interventions that result, the relation of surprise to the sense of the uncanny, and the shifts in the analyst's defensive organisation that allow for the experience of surprise. Several vignettes illustrate the interplay of the analyst's and the patient's psychologies and the manner in which surprise may alert the analyst to mutually-created resistances and enactments, which may appear to be discrete phenomena, but are in fact continuous processes, intrinsic to the work.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors demonstrate that relative surprise inferences possess a certain optimality property and develop computational techniques for implementing them, provided that algorithms are available to sample from the prior and posterior distributions.
Abstract: Relative surprise inferences are based on how beliefs change from a priori to a posteriori. As they are based on the posterior distribution of the integrated likelihood, inferenc es of this type are invariant under relabellings of the parameter of interest. The authors demonstrate that the se inferences possess a certain optimality property. Further, they develop computational techniques for implementing them, provided that algorithms are available to sample from the prior and posterior distributions. Optimalit´ e et calculs pour des inf´ erences ` a surprise relative R´´
31 citations