Surprise

About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.

Novelty or surprise

Abstract: Novelty and surprise play significant roles in animal behavior and in attempts to understand the neural mechanisms underlying it. They also play important roles in technology, where detecting observations that are novel or surprising is central to many applications, such as medical diagnosis, text processing, surveillance, and security. Theories of motivation, particularly of intrinsic motivation, place novelty and surprise among the primary factors that arouse interest, motivate exploratory or avoidance behavior, and drive learning. In many of these studies, novelty and surprise are not distinguished from one another: the words are used more-or-less interchangeably. However, while undeniably closely related, novelty and surprise are very different. The purpose of this article is first to highlight the differences between novelty and surprise and to discuss how they are related by presenting an extensive review of mathematical and computational proposals related to them, and then to explore the implications of this for understanding behavioral and neuroscience data. We argue that opportunities for improved understanding of behavior and its neural basis are likely being missed by failing to distinguish between novelty and surprise.

Trial-by-trial fluctuations in the event-related electroencephalogram reflect dynamic changes in the degree of surprise.

Abstract: The P300 component of the human event-related brain potential has often been linked to the processing of rare, surprising events. However, the formal computational processes underlying the generation of the P300 are not well known. Here, we formulate a simple model of trial-by-trial learning of stimulus probabilities based on Information Theory. Specifically, we modeled the surprise associated with the occurrence of a visual stimulus to provide a formal quantification of the "subjective probability" associated with an event. Subjects performed a choice reaction time task, while we recorded their brain responses using electroencephalography (EEG). In each of 12 blocks, the probabilities of stimulus occurrence were changed, thereby creating sequences of trials with low, medium, and high predictability. Trial-by-trial variations in the P300 component were best explained by a model of stimulus-bound surprise. This model accounted for the data better than a categorical model that parametrically encoded the stimulus identity, or an alternative model of surprise based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The present data demonstrate that trial-by-trial changes in P300 can be explained by predictions made by an ideal observer keeping track of the probabilities of possible events. This provides evidence for theories proposing a direct link between the P300 component and the processing of surprising events. Furthermore, this study demonstrates how model-based analyses can be used to explain significant proportions of the trial-by-trial changes in human event-related EEG responses.

Animal learning and cognition : an introduction

Abstract: The Study of Animal Cognition. Associative Learning. The Conditions for Learning - Surprise and Attention. Instrumental Conditioning. Discrimination Learning. Memory. The Representation of Time, Number and Order. Navigation. Social Learning. Communication and Language. The Distribution of Intelligence.

Earnings Surprise “Materiality” as Measured by Stock Returns

Abstract: Ranked earnings surprise portfolios formed from First Call files for 1992–97 are used to assess the annual earnings surprise magnitude for an individual firm sufficient to expect a “significant market reaction.” We find that, for an individual firm, the maximum probability of a gain from trading on prior knowledge of any surprise magnitude is .622. The lack of probable trading gains is due to the S–shaped surprise/return relation and the large variance of returns for a given magnitude of surprise. In turn, we find that the S–shape is related empirically to the dispersion of analyst forecasts. Thus, factors underlying dispersion differences are related to the importance or “materiality” of earnings surprise as measured by stock returns and explain at least part of the S–shaped surprise/return relation.

The Message Within : The Role of Subjective Experience In Social Cognition And Behavior

Abstract: D.T. Gilbert, D.M. Wegner, Introduction: Subjective Experience as the Centerpiece of Social Psychology. Part 1. Subjective Experience And Information Processing. K. Fiedler, On Mere Considering. A. Dijksterhuis, J. Bargh, The Role of Awareness in Automatic Action. C.M. Brendl, C. Hardin, Norm Theory: Ease of Mental Simulation Affects Judgments of Surprise. F. Strack, Judgmental Regulation. Part 2. Subjective Experience and Memory Phenomena . R. Neumann, F. Strack, The Influence of Feelings of Approach and Avoidance on the Encoding of Affective Words. E.R. Smith, Subjective Feelings of Familiarity and Their Effects: Insights from Exemplar and Connectionist Models. N. Schwarz, Phenomenal Experiences as a Basis of Judgment: Ease of Recall and Perceptual Fluency. Part 3. Affect as a Subjective Experience and Social Cognition. C. Sedikides, The Rocky Road from Affect to Attentional Focus. Y. Trope, Mood as a Resource in Overcoming Defensive Self-Evaluations. J.P. Forgas, Affective Influences on Strategic Behaviors. T. Garcia-Marques, D. Mackie, The Hypothesis of Mood-as-a-Regulation-Mechanism and its Corollary Mood-as-Familiarity. G. Bohner, T. Weinarth, Emotion as Input: The Impact of Fear and Guilt on the Processing of Messages. Part 4. Subjective Experiences and Intergroup Relations. J.F. Dovidio, Subjective Experiences and Intergroup Relations. A. Abele, Positive Mood and Ingroup-Outgroup Differentiation in a Minimal Group Setting. G.V. Bodenhausen, Intergroup Affect and Social Perception: Affect as Inadmissible Information. Part 5. The Role of Subjective Experience in Attitudes and Stereotypes. B. Dardenne, V. Yzerbyt, Search versus Passive Reception of Information: The Impact on Stereotyping. M. Wanke, H. Bless, How Subjectively Experienced Difficulty Affects the Formation of Attitudinal Judgments. G. Haddock, Subjective Experiences and Political Judgements: It's Easy to Like (or Dislike) Tony Blair. H. Bless, J. Forgas, Feeling, Thinking and Doing: Subjective Experience in Social Cognition and Behavior.