Surprise

About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.

Trust and surprise in distributed teams: towards an understanding of expectations and adaptations

Abstract: Trust can be defined in terms of one party's expectations of another, and the former's willingness to be vulnerable based on those expectations. Surprise results from a failure to meet expectations, which can influence trust. We conducted an empirical study of surprises stemming from cultural differences in distributed teams and their influence on trust. Our study findings provide two primary contributions. First, we find that trust judgments in culturally diverse teams are made from accumulated experiences that involve a sequence of cultural surprise, attribution, formulation of new expectations, and the application of adaptations in new situations. Second, we document adaptations that individuals develop to avoid future surprises and which ultimately helped them to improve their sense of trust towards others. In general, our findings contribute to the existing body of work by providing evidence of how people attribute specific cultural surprises, the impact on their sense of trust and adaptations.

Unscripted drama: soccer audience response to suspense, surprise, and shock

Abstract: By modeling minute‐by‐minute television audience figures from English Premier League soccer matches, with close to 50,000 minute‐observations, we show that demand is partly driven by suspense and surprise. We also identify an additional relevant factor of appeal to audiences, namely shock, which refers to the difference between pre‐match and current game outcome probabilities. Suspense, surprise, and shock remain significant in the presence of a traditional measure of outcome uncertainty. (JEL C23, D12, L82, L83, Z20)

Frontal cortex tracks surprise separately for different sensory modalities but engages a common inhibitory control mechanism

Abstract: The brain constantly generates predictions about the environment to guide action. Unexpected events lead to surprise and can necessitate the modification of ongoing behavior. Surprise can occur for any sensory domain, but it is not clear how these separate surprise signals are integrated to affect motor output. By applying a trial-to-trial Bayesian surprise model to human electroencephalography data recorded during a cross-modal oddball task, we tested whether there are separate predictive models for different sensory modalities (visual, auditory), or whether expectations are integrated across modalities such that surprise in one modality decreases surprise for a subsequent unexpected event in the other modality. We found that while surprise was represented in a common frontal signature across sensory modalities (the fronto-central P3 event-related potential), the single-trial amplitudes of this signature more closely conformed to a model with separate surprise terms for each sensory domain. We then investigated whether surprise-related fronto-central P3 activity indexes the rapid inhibitory control of ongoing behavior after surprise, as suggested by recent theories. Confirming this prediction, the fronto-central P3 amplitude after both auditory and visual unexpected events was highly correlated with the fronto-central P3 found after stop-signals (measured in a separate stop-signal task). Moreover, surprise-related and stopping-related activity loaded onto the same component in a cross-task independent components analysis. Together, these findings suggest that medial frontal cortex maintains separate predictive models for different sensory domains, but engages a common mechanism for inhibitory control of behavior regardless of the source of surprise.

"Surprise" Out-of-network Billing in Orthopedic Surgery: Charges From Surprising Sources.

Abstract: I n 2019, lawmakers in both the Senate and House of Representatives proposed multiple bills to end surprise medical billing. A surprise medical bill is a charge from an out-of-network clinician that is not anticipated by the patient at the time of service. Several prior studies on surprise billing focus on emergency department and medical care, but less is known about the drivers of out-of-network surprise billing in elective surgical settings. Because surgical services require a multidisciplinary team of providers (eg, anesthesiologists, pathologists, etc), many of whom are not chosen by the patient and maybe out-of-network, patients receiving surgery may be particularly susceptible to surprise medical bills. We sought to determine the providers responsible for the highest rates and costs of out-of-network billing in orthopedic surgical episodes across the United States. We chose to study orthopedic procedures as they are among the most common and costly operations among commercially insured patients.