Topic
Surprise
About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical discussion of some of the problems facing intelligence communities and decision makers in their efforts to guard against a surprise attack is examined in the light of three "noise levels" (three environmental background noises), as well as in relation to the complexities involved in the mutual evaluation of intentions and capabilities of opposing sides.
Abstract: The first part of this paper is a theoretical discussion of some of the problems facing intelligence communities and decision makers in their efforts to guard against a surprise attack. These difficulties are examined in the light of three “noise levels” (three environmental background noises), as well as in relation to the complexities involved in the mutual evaluation of intentions and capabilities of opposing sides. The author's pessimistic conclusions regarding the possibilities of preventing a surprise attack are summarized by five intelligence paradoxes (or contradictions), three of which appear in the theoretical section and the other two in the case study of the Yom Kippur War. The second part of this article is a case study of the conditions and perceptions of Israeli decision makers which made surprise inevitable at the outbreak of the war. The conclusion is a summary of the lessons which, even if they cannot provide a foolproof guarantee against surprise, can dampen the effects of a surprise attack and supply decision makers with some guidelines for improving their alertness and readiness to face surprise.
51 citations
TL;DR: Some applications of the new concept of evidence are discussed, concerning statistics in general and the special kind of statistics performed by neurophysiologists, when they analyze the “response” of neurons, and perhaps by the neurons themselves.
Abstract: A numerical measure for "evidence" is defined in a probabilistic framework. The established mathematical concept of information or entropy (as defined in ergodic theory) can be obtained from this definition in a special case, although in general information is greater than evidence. In another, somewhat complementary, special case a numerical measure for "surprise" is derived from the definition of evidence. Some applications of the new concept of evidence are discussed, concerning statistics in general and the special kind of statistics performed by neurophysiologists, when they analyze the "response" of neurons, and perhaps by the neurons themselves.
51 citations
01 Jan 2009
TL;DR: The authors argue that data becomes temporarily interesting by itself to some selfimproving, but computationally limited, subjective observer once he learns to predict or compress the data in a better way, thus making it subjectively more "beautiful".
Abstract: In this summary of previous work, I argue that data becomes temporarily interesting by itself to some selfimproving, but computationally limited, subjective observer once he learns to predict or compress the data in a better way, thus making it subjectively more “beautiful.” Curiosity is the desire to create or discover more non-random, non-arbitrary, “truly novel,” regular data that allows for compression progress because its regularity was not yet known. This drive maximizes “interestingness,” the first derivative of subjective beauty or compressibility, that is, the steepness of the learning curve. It motivates exploring infants, pure mathematicians, composers, artists, dancers, comedians, yourself, and recent artificial systems.
51 citations
TL;DR: A conceptual model is proposed that can be used to explain pilot behavior in accident cases, to design experiments and training simulations, to teach pilots metacognitive skills, and to identify intervention methods.
Abstract: Objective: A conceptual model is proposed in order to explain pilot performance in surprising and startling situations. Background: Today’s debate around loss of control following in-flight events and the implementation of upset prevention and recovery training has highlighted the importance of pilots’ ability to deal with unexpected events. Unexpected events, such as technical malfunctions or automation surprises, potentially induce a "startle factor" that may significantly impair performance. Method: Literature on surprise, startle, resilience, and decision making is reviewed, and findings are combined into a conceptual model. A number of recent flight incident and accident cases are then used to illustrate elements of the model. Results: Pilot perception and actions are conceptualized as being guided by "frames," or mental knowledge structures that were previously learned. Performance issues in unexpected situations can often be traced back to insufficient adaptation of one’s frame to the situation. It is argued that such sensemaking or reframing processes are especially vulnerable to issues caused by startle or acute stress. Conclusion: Interventions should focus on (a) increasing the supply and quality of pilot frames (e.g., though practicing a variety of situations), (b) increasing pilot reframing skills (e.g., through the use of unpredictability in training scenarios), and (c) improving pilot metacognitive skills, so that inappropriate automatic responses to startle and surprise can be avoided. Application: The model can be used to explain pilot behavior in accident cases, to design experiments and training simulations, to teach pilots metacognitive skills, and to identify intervention methods. © 2017, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
51 citations
TL;DR: The authors used behavioral and eye-tracking data to test whether the surprise induced by outcomes that violate expectations enhances learning and found that making predictions about the outcomes of soccer matches specifically improved memory for expectancy-violating events.
51 citations