Surprise

About: Surprise is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 4371 publications have been published within this topic receiving 99386 citations.

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

Abstract: A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises --like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired --have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios --particularly those of low probability and high impact --have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Blindside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures --institutional as well as personal --that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But it is essential that we understand the obstacles that prevent us first from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately on our insights. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.

The temporal dynamics of surprise

Abstract: Guided by a temporal dynamics perspective, we review and integrate theories and empirical evidence on surprise. We conceptualize surprise as the initial response to unexpected events, which should be differentiated from subsequent states that occur after people had time to make sense of the unexpected outcome. To understand the nature of surprise, it is therefore important to take time into account. Following this, a review of immediate cognitive correlates of surprise shows that irrespective of the valence of the outcome, the initial responses are the same. Moreover, the temporal dynamics perspective reconciles seemingly contradictory findings regarding the valence of surprise, such that studies that focus on surprise while it happens (initial interruption) support the notion that it feels relatively negative, whereas studies that focus on states after cognitive mastering show that subsequent experiential states depend on the valence of the outcome.

Is the meaning perceived in facial expression independent of its context

Abstract: We see infants smile when they encounter an adult. We see adults smile when they watch a slapstick cartoon. We see people weep at homages and funerals. We see teenagers frown when their computers flash a strange message, and teachers frown when a teenager makes an inappropriate remark. Smiles, frowns, and other facial configurations described as “expressions of emotion” are highly meaningful cues in our perception of others. This chapter concerns the meaning perceived in such facial expressions, and, specifically, whether that meaning depends on the context in which the expression occurs. (By “context” we mean the situational events that surround the facial movement, and we use the words situation and context interchangeably.) Common sense suggests yes . As with any behavior, facial expressions are embedded in a context; they happen at a particular time (e.g., while gazing at someone) and in a particular place (e.g., at a funeral). Psychological wisdom says that any perception is an interaction between the stimulus and its context (between the figure and its ground), and ethologists have found that animal messages get their specific meaning through context (Hinde, 1982; Smith, 1977). What, then, are the figure–ground interactions between facial expressions and context? The answer implicit in the mainstream view of facial expression is very simple: There are none. Most research on facial expressions presupposes that they have meaning independent of their context or, in other words, that the context plays no essential role in the recognition of emotions from facial expressions. A specific facial expression means happiness, surprise, fear, or whatever, irrespective of the occasion of its occurrence.