Technological transitions

About: Technological transitions is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 182 publications have been published within this topic receiving 55828 citations. The topic is also known as: technological transitions.

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change

Abstract: This study develops an evolutionary theory of the capabilities and behavior of business firms operating in a market environment. It includes both general discussion and the manipulation of specific simulation models consistent with that theory. The analysis outlines the differences between an evolutionary theory of organizational and industrial change and a neoclassical microeconomic theory. The antecedents to the former are studies by economists like Schumpeter (1934) and Alchian (1950). It is contrasted with the orthodox theory in the following aspects: while the evolutionary theory views firms as motivated by profit, their actions are not assumed to be profit maximizing, as in orthodox theory; the evolutionary theory stresses the tendency of most profitable firms to drive other firms out of business, but, in contrast to orthodox theory, does not concentrate on the state of industry equilibrium; and evolutionary theory is related to behavioral theory: it views firms, at any given time, as having certain capabilities and decision rules, as well as engaging in various ‘search' operations, which determines their behavior; while orthodox theory views firm behavior as relying on the use of the usual calculus maximization techniques. The theory is then made operational by the use of simulation methods. These models use Markov processes and analyze selection equilibrium, responses to changing factor prices, economic growth with endogenous technical change, Schumpeterian competition, and Schumpeterian tradeoff between static Pareto-efficiency and innovation. The study's discussion of search behavior complicates the evolutionary theory. With search, the decision making process in a firm relies as much on past experience as on innovative alternatives to past behavior. This view combines Darwinian and Lamarkian views on evolution; firms are seen as both passive with regard to their environment, and actively seeking alternatives that affect their environment. The simulation techniques used to model Schumpeterian competition reveal that there are usually winners and losers in industries, and that the high productivity and profitability of winners confer advantages that make further success more likely, while decline breeds further decline. This process creates a tendency for concentration to develop even in an industry initially composed of many equal-sized firms. However, the experiments conducted reveal that the growth of concentration is not inevitable; for example, it tends to be smaller when firms focus their searches on imitating rather than innovating. At the same time, industries with rapid technological change tend to grow more concentrated than those with slower progress. The abstract model of Schumpeterian competition presented in the study also allows to see more clearly the public policy issues concerning the relationship between technical progress and market structure. The analysis addresses the pervasive question of whether industry concentration, with its associated monopoly profits and reduced social welfare, is a necessary cost if societies are to obtain the benefits of technological innovation. (AT)

Technological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments

Abstract: Investigates the patterns of technological evolution and their impact on environmental conditions. Seven hypotheses are offered in order to demonstrate that technology is a central force in shaping the environments within which organizations operate. These hypotheses are: (1) technological change within a product class will be characterized by long periods of incremental change punctuated by discontinuities; (1a) technological discontinuities are either competence enhancing (build on existing skills and know-how) or competence destroying (require fundamentally new skills and competences); (2) the locus of innovation will differ for competence destroying and competence-enhancing technological changes. Competence-destroying discontinuities will be initiated by new entrants, while competence-enhancing discontinuities will be initiated by existing firms; (3) competitive uncertainty will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before discontinuity; (4) environmental munificence (i.e., resource availability and support for growth) will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity; (5) competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with decreased entry-to-exit ratios and decreased interfirm sales variability (thus strengthening product leaders and increasing barriers to entry). These patterns will be reversed for competence-destroying discontinuities; (6) successive competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with smaller increases in uncertainty and munificence; and (7) those organizations that initiate major technological innovations will have higher growth rates than other firms in the product class. Data were collected from U.S. firms in three product classes, domestic scheduled passenger airline transport, Portland cement manufacture, and minicomputer manufacture, from the year of the niche market's inception through 1980. Results indicate that after the three niche openings, there were six competence-enhancing technological discontinuities and two competence-destroying discontinuities in total. Each of these discontinuities had a far greater impact on a key measure of cost or performance than more incremental technological events. In addition, except for the period following the introduction of semiconductor memory in minicomputers, the ability of experienced industry observers to predict demand following technological disruptions was far worse than prior to the disruption. Demand growth following the discontinuity was significantly higher than it was immediately prior to the discontinuity, which had an enormous impact on product-class demand. Also, the ratio of entries to exits was higher in each of the five years before a competence-enhancing discontinuity than during the five subsequent years, though none of the differences is statistically significant. Though market variability in sales growth was expected, it was found that some firms' sales grew explosively while other firms experienced sales declines. It is also suggested that as technology matures, successive competence-enhancing discontinuities increase both uncertainty and munificence, but not as much as those discontinuities that preceded them in establishing the product class. Finally, early adopters of technology were found to experience more growth than other firms. Using three different product types, with a wide range of years from inception, it is shown that technology does evolve through long periods of incremental change punctuated by relatively rare innovations that radically improve the state of the art. Although these incidences of change are rare, they stand out clearly and have significantly altered competitive environments. (SFL)