Topic
Tipping point (climatology)
About: Tipping point (climatology) is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 1222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 34256 citations.
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TL;DR: It is explained how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points, and critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing.
Abstract: The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.
2,660 citations
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01 Jan 1991TL;DR: The authors argue that the context we find ourselves in substantially affects our behavior in this timely reissue of one of social psychology's classic textbooks with a new foreword by Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point.
Abstract: How does the situation we're in influence the way we behave and think? Professors Ross and Nisbett eloquently argue that the context we find ourselves in substantially affects our behavior in this timely reissue of one of social psychology's classic textbooks. With a new foreword by Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point.
1,688 citations
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TL;DR: How previously isolated lines of work can be connected are reviewed, it is concluded that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.
Abstract: Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
1,617 citations
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University of California, Berkeley1, Stanford University2, Spanish National Research Council3, University of New Mexico4, American Museum of Natural History5, University of California, Davis6, Simon Fraser University7, California Academy of Sciences8, University of Wisconsin-Madison9, University of California, San Francisco10, Missouri Botanical Garden11
TL;DR: Evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence is reviewed, highlighting the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions.
Abstract: There is evidence that human influence may be forcing the global ecosystem towards a rapid, irreversible, planetary-scale shift into a state unknown in human experience. Most forecasts of how the biosphere will change in response to human activity are rooted in projecting trajectories. Such models tend not anticipate critical transitions or tipping points, although recent work indicates a high probability of those taking place. And, at a local scale, ecosystems are known to shift abruptly between states when critical thresholds are passed. These authors review the evidence from across ecology and palaeontology that such a transition is being approached on the scale of the entire biosphere. They go on to suggest how biological forecasting might be improved to allow us to detect early warning signs of critical transitions on a global, as well as local, scale. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
1,571 citations
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TL;DR: Water security is defined as the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies as discussed by the authors.
814 citations