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Topic

Uncertainty quantification

About: Uncertainty quantification is a(n) research topic. Over the lifetime, 8599 publication(s) have been published within this topic receiving 132551 citation(s). The topic is also known as: UQ.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work develops methods for applying existing analytical tools to perform analyses on a variety of mathematical and computer models and provides a complete methodology for performing these analyses, in both deterministic and stochastic settings, and proposes novel techniques to handle problems encountered during these types of analyses.
Abstract: Accuracy of results from mathematical and computer models of biological systems is often complicated by the presence of uncertainties in experimental data that are used to estimate parameter values. Current mathematical modeling approaches typically use either single-parameter or local sensitivity analyses. However, these methods do not accurately assess uncertainty and sensitivity in the system as, by default, they hold all other parameters fixed at baseline values. Using techniques described within we demonstrate how a multi-dimensional parameter space can be studied globally so all uncertainties can be identified. Further, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can help to identify and ultimately control uncertainties. In this work we develop methods for applying existing analytical tools to perform analyses on a variety of mathematical and computer models. We compare two specific types of global sensitivity analysis indexes that have proven to be among the most robust and efficient. Through familiar and new examples of mathematical and computer models, we provide a complete methodology for performing these analyses, in both deterministic and stochastic settings, and propose novel techniques to handle problems encountered during these types of analyses.

1,609 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: A Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty is presented, which makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.
Abstract: There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

1,555 citations

Proceedings Article
04 Dec 2017
Abstract: There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model - uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

1,253 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This survey introduces the application, implementation, and underlying principles of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification inredictive modeling.
Abstract: Predictive modeling's effectiveness is hindered by inherent uncertainties in the input parameters. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis quantify these uncertainties and identify the relationships between input and output variations, leading to the construction of a more accurate model. This survey introduces the application, implementation, and underlying principles of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification

986 citations

BookDOI
01 Jan 2010

772 citations

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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
202258
20211,202
20201,108
2019994
2018857
2017737