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Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1975"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper used rational voting behavior as an organizing device to develop a framework within which to consider the effect of economic aggregates on voters and found that the effect on the participation rate is much clearer than the effects on either party.
Abstract: This paper uses rational voting behavior as an organizing device to develop a framework within which to consider the effect of economic aggregates on voters. Unlike most previous studies, ours permits the voter to vote for candidates of either party or to abstain. A principal finding is that the effect of the main economic aggregates on the participation rate is much clearer than the effects on either party. Our results deny that an incumbent administration can affect the control of Congress by stimulating the economy. Voters appear to make judgments about inflation, unemployment and economic growth. We investigated on the basis of long-term, not short-term performance.

226 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the last fifteen years there have been drastic changes in law, and in the interpretation of law, as it bears on voting as mentioned in this paper, and there has been conscious efforts to integrate theoretical and empirical analyses of voting behavior.
Abstract: T Princeton University HIS paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of the probability that an individual will vote in Presidential elections. Our interest in this subject is prompted in part by an interest in social policy. In the last fifteen years there have been drastic changes in law, and in the interpretation of law, as it bears on voting. The Constitution has been altered by both the 24th Amendment, outlawing the poll tax, and the 26th Amendment, lowering the age of voter eligibility from 21 to 18 years of age.' The Voting Rights Act of 1965 sent federal registrars into many Southern communities that had low rates of registration and a history of discrimination against blacks, and it suspended literacy tests as a qualification for voting in six Southern states. Amendments to the Voting Rights Act in 1970 suspended such tests in all states and abolished residence requirements for voting in presidential elections. In 1972 a decision of the U.S. Supreme Court sharply reduced the length of residence that could be required for voting in state and local elections. All of these changes were calculated to enlarge the number of voters exercising the right to vote, and all except the lowering of the age of eligibility were expected to increase rates of voting. That they achieved this latter objective, even among voters 21 and older, is not obvious, the turnout of voters in the presidential election of 1972 was markedly lower than it had been a dozen years earlier. We are interested also in a better explanation of voting. Since 1960 understanding of participation in elections has also increased, even if not so dramatically as the pace of change in electoral law. Fifteen years ago solid knowledge about voting was based almost entirely on simple correlation analyses that related voting to dozens of demographic and sociopsychological variables. Since then, multivariate analyses have become more common and there have been conscious efforts to integrate theoretical and empirical analyses of voting behavior. We designed our research to build upon these trends. To a large extent, the major theories of voting have developed independently of each other; we decided to make them compete to explain a given body of data. We also

183 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, attitudinal patterns of U.S. appeals court judges were investigated along with an analysis of the relationship of judges' backgrounds to their decisions and their voting behavior.
Abstract: In an earlier study of voting behavior of U.S. appeals courts judges, attitudinal patterns were investigated along with an analysis of the relationship of judges' backgrounds to their decisions. In this revisit, the earlier findings were treated as hypotheses and tested with a new case population covering a subsequent and longer time period. In all, 2,115 cases decided nonunanimously were coded on one or more issues. Most cases could be classified under ten broad issue categories which were then utilized for most of the analyses. Although the research design was similar to that of the earlier study, a wider variety of methods was employed including nonparametric and parametric intercorrelations of voting behavior on the ten issues and stepwise multiple regression and partial correla-tion analyses of seven background variables and their relationships to voting behavior on the issues. The principal findings were similar to those found earlier but it was possible to map voting behavior with some-what more precision and to uncover some unexpected relationships such as those concerning the potency of the age variable particularly for voting on political liberalism issues.

165 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A number of theories of rational voting behavior have been proposed, e.g., the authors, which treat votes and voting as the outcome of a rational calculation of marginal costs and benefits, yielding benefits to the individual that can be translated into votes for the party or candidate.
Abstract: THREE strands of thought and conjecture contribute to the belief that economic conditions play an important, and perhaps decisive role in elections. Recent theories of rational voting behavior-Buchanan and Tullock' or Riker and Ordeshook2 are examples-treat votes and voting as the outcome of a rational calculation of marginal costs and benefits. Prosperity, rising real income and increased employment may, in this framework, yield benefits to the individual that can be translated into votes for the party or candidate. Related, yet distinct, is the growing body of conjectures about a "political business cycle." High employment and low inflation in election years are followed by anti-inflation policies that temporarily lower employment and the rate of inflation in succeeding years. These policies work gradually and are replaced by policies to stimulate the economy, so the candidate or party can boast of prosperity and lower inflation at the next election. The conjecture arises also from casual and impressionistic evidence and from some studies of voting. Perhaps the most widely cited recent example is the Kennedy-Nixon election of 1960 when a small plurality and rising unemployment seemed to support the conjecture. Econometric studies of voting behavior provide, at most, mixed support. Most of the evidence comes from time series studies of Congressional elections. Kramer, Stigler, and Arcelus and Meltzer used different methods and reached different conclusions.3

69 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors assesses the ability of legislators to predict constituency opinion by comparing the predictions made by members of Florida's lower house with actual constituency opinion as reflected in subsequent referendum results and find that the predictions prove reasonably accurate.
Abstract: This study assesses the ability of legislators to predict constituency opinion by comparing the predictions made by members of Florida's lower house with actual constituency opinion as reflected in subsequent referendum results. On the whole, predictions prove reasonably accurate. An attempt is also made to identify what influences legislators' predictions. On some issues, previous constituency voting behavior seems to guide the legislators' estimates of constituency opinion. Legislators' selfdescribed role orientations are not consistently related to prediction prowess.

62 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper analyzed survey data from 390 respondents to determine the relative effects of organizational involvement, socioeconomic status, and political attitudes on political participation, and found that organizational involvement and socioeconomic status were correlated with political participation.
Abstract: Survey data from 390 respondents was analyzed to determine the relative effects of organizational involvement, socioeconomic status, and political attitudes on political participation. Two theoreti...

60 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors reviewed the research literature on the reciprocal effects of education and political developments and found that both political development and educational expansion occur within the context of a particular world system (Cohen, 1970; Wallerstein, 1973), and discussed the ways in which this context affects the two processes.
Abstract: Since World War II, national educational systems have expanded rapidly (Coombs, 1968) and have become increasingly structured by centers of political authority. Nation-states have also consolidated their control over more aspects of social life. These two phenomena are related. The consolidation of national political authority extends education throughout society as a means of incorporating its human material in its structure, and politically incorporated educational systems integrate and legitimate political action. This chapter reviews the research literature on these reciprocal effects of education and political developments. Because both political development and educational expansion occur within the context of a particular world system (Cohen, 1970; Wallerstein, 1973), the first section of the review discusses the ways in which this context affects the two processes. The second section considers educational effects on political development, and the third discusses the effects of national political development on education. Most studies of education and political development investigate the interrelations between the educational and political attributes of individuals. Yet both political development and education are institutional properties. We must, then, review research efforts to address the relations among these institutional structures using data on individuals. Because the making of inferences about institutional relations using individual-level data is problematic, there is a great need for more comparative and institutional-level studies.

44 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A relatively large number of Americans believe that they are politically competent and are able to influence political affairs as mentioned in this paper and yet, over the past several years, they have witnessed the estrangement of substantial portions of the American citizenry from the political system, accompanied by an increase in popular distrust of government.
Abstract: COMPARED TO MASS PUBLICS IN OTHER NATIONS, a relatively large number of Americans believe that they are politically competentthat they are able to influence political affairs. And yet, over the past several years we have witnessed the estrangement of substantial portions of the American citizenry from the political systeman estrangement accompanied by an increase in popular distrust of government.' As concepts, political competence and political trust have occu-

36 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the conceptual complexities of political participation in the public realm and the role of participation in forming democratic values in Western societies, and propose a framework to understand the relationship between political participation and the formation of democratic values.
Abstract: rT HE LAST several years have seen a renaissance in the study of political participation. Many contemporary societies have come to regard it as an important concern, partly because of a preoccupation with problems of bureaucratization, alienation, and mobilization of citizens for political and economic development. In Western societies our attention has also been attracted to it by demands and recommendations for more extensive and authentic participation in the political process. These demands have grown out of a serious critique of existing practices and have emphasized, as a corrective, the positive public and personal functions of participation in politics. Even in education, family, and industry the problem of the role of participation, especially in relation to the formation of democratic values, has been revived and expounded. The response of social science and political theory to these crises has been directed typically either at finding an "explanation" for political participation, or at elaborating a rationale supporting large doses of citizen involvement and initiative in the public realm. For the former, explanatory theory has been sought through specifying and measuring the "levels" or "forms" of participation in such a way as to facilitate cross-national ,omparison and prediction of who participates, under what conditions, and in what ways. Operational definitions, statistical methods, and quantification of findings have characterized this particular view of the subject.1 By contrast, other writers have been interested primarily in identifying institutions of a potential "participatory" society and demonstrating their plausibility. Whether couched in the language of recommendation, exhortation, or polemic, this approach has proclaimed establishment of "the case for participatory democracy," to quote a recent title, as its final aim.2 While having obvious merits of their own, neither of these approaches has given sufficient critical attention to the conceptual complexities of political par-

30 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Converse et al. as discussed by the authors studied the role of the normal vote in the 1968 presidential election and found that the majority of the voters in the United States preferred a candidate with a "normal" vote.
Abstract: George Belknap and Angus Campbell, "Political Party Identification and Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy," Public Opinion Quarterly, 15 (1952), 601-23; Warren E. Miller, "Party Preference and Attitudes on Political Issues: 1948-1951," American Political Science Review, 46 (1952), 45-60; Angus Campbell et al., The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960); Philip E. Converse, "The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Politics," in David Apter, Ideology and Discontent (New York: The Free Press, 1964), pp. 206-61; Angus Campbell and Donald Stokes, "Partisan Attitudes and the Presidential Vote," in Eugene Burdick and Arthur J. Brodbeck, American Voting Behavior (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 353-71; Philip E. Converse et al., "Continuity and Change in American Politics," American Political Science Review, 63 (1969), 10831105; Philip E. Converse, "The Concept of a Normal Vote," in Angus Campbell et al., Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966), pp. 9-39; Philip E. Converse, "Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan Attitudes," Public Opinion Quarterly, 26 (1962), 578-99; Philip E. Converse et al., "Stability and Change in 1960: A Reinstating Election," American Political Science Review, 55 (1961), 78-95; Richard W. Boyd, "Popular Control of Public Policy: A Normal Vote Analysis of the 1968 Election," American Political Science Review, 66 (1972), 429-48; Aage Clausen et al., "Electoral Myth and Reality: The 1964 Election," American Political Science Review, 59 (1965), 321-32. 2 Campbell et al., The American Voter, pp. 148-49; Converse, "The Nature of Belief Systems ... ," p. 240.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a model is presented to analyze the transmission of political values across generational lines, which includes social class, parental value, family structure, and ethnic heritage (a residual variable).
Abstract: A model is presented to analyze the transmission of political values across generational lines. The variables within the model are social class, parental value, family structure, and "ethnic heritage" (a residual variable). Political values do differ among ethnic groups both in the parental and adolescent generation. Ethnicity tends to be a stronger predictor of adolescent values than parental education. Some groups are more effective in transmitting values than others. While family structure does not shape the political values of the whole population, it does influence the transmission of values within certain ethnic groups.



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the concepts of political crime, political criminal, political justice, and political prisoner are defined, and dimensions for a taxonomy of political crimes are suggested. But few attempts have been made systematically to define or interrelate these concepts.
Abstract: Few attempts have previously been made systematically to define or interrelate the concepts of political crime, political criminal, political justice, and political prisoner. To establish a more adequate conceptual base for research, political crime and political criminals are herein defined in terms of motiwtions underlying criminal acts, regardless of the nature of the acts themselves; political justice is defined in terms of the state's reaction to perceived threat; and political prisoners are defined as those incarcerated because of either political crime (politico1 criminals) or political justice (victims of repression). Dimensions for a taxonomy of political crime are suggested.

Book
01 May 1975
TL;DR: Kantowicz as mentioned in this paper examines the origins of the heavily Democratic allegiance of Polish voters and demonstrates that Chicago Poles were voting Democratic long before Al Smith, Franklin Roosevelt, or the New Deal.
Abstract: The "new immigrants" who came from southern and eastern Europe at the turn of the century have rarely been the subject of detailed scholarly examination In particular, Poles and other Slavic groups have usually been written about in a filiopietist manner Edward Kantowicz fills this gap with his incisive work on Poles in Chicago Kantowicz examines such questions as why Chicago, with the largest Polish population of any city outside of Poland, has never elected a Polish mayor The author also examines the origins of the heavily Democratic allegiance of Polish voters Kantowicz demonstrates that Chicago Poles were voting Democratic long before Al Smith, Franklin Roosevelt, or the New Deal Kantowicz has made extensive use of registration lists and voting records to construct a statistical picture of Polish-American voting behavior in Chicago He draws on church records and census records to provide a detailed description of Chicago's many Polish neighborhoods He also has studied the city's Polish-language press as well as the few manuscript collections left by Polish-American politicians These collections, together with data gleaned from interviews with individuals who were acquainted with these figures, are used to sketch profiles of the political leaders of Polonia's capital Kantowicz focuses on the goals which the Polish-American community pursued in politics, the issues they deemed important, and the functions which politics served for them He links this analysis to observations on the homeland and the reasons for which the Poles emigrated In this context he is able to draw conclusions about the nature of the ethnic politics in general His work will appeal to a variety of readers: urban and twentieth-century historians, political scientists, and sociologists

Book
05 Jun 1975
TL;DR: The psychology of Nazism and its connections with political attitudes was studied in this paper. But the authors focused on the psychological aspects of political attitudes and did not consider the political context.
Abstract: Preface 1. Introduction: psychology and politics 2. The political context 3. Authoritarian orientation and alienation: some previous research 4. Problems and solutions in measuring psychological dispositions 5. Dispositions and their correlates 6. The structure of political attitudes 7. Psychological dispositions and political attitudes 8. Political conversation in a small group 9. Conclusion: the psychology of Nazism Appendices Bibliography Index.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper found that religious affiliation was a better predictor of legislative voting on abortion reform than any of the other variables, including religious affiliation, party, age, and rural-urban constituency.
Abstract: The research relates four independent variables to the voting behavior of legislators in a western state on the question of abortion reform during three sessions of the state legialature. The four variables include religious affiliation, party, age, and rural-urban constituency. Special attention is given to religious affiliation because of the assumed saliency of abortion reform for certain religious groups. The state chosen for study has large groups of Catholics and Mormons, both of which are opposed to abortion reform on theological grounds. Results indicate that religious affiliation was a better predictor of legislative voting on abortion reform than any of the other variables.


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 1975
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make an explicit attempt to develop and test a theoretical framework on the problem of attracting and retaining grass-roots activists in a political party, arguing that the way party leaders go about recruiting and retaining organizational activists will be similar to the way they go about appealing for electoral support.
Abstract: a core of activists who will engage in the activities necessary for achieving the organization’s collective goal. Furthermore, the way in which an organization or its leadership goes about resolving the problem of recruiting and retaining organizational activists has considerable impact upon its internal dynamics (i.e., its structures and procedures, distribution of power, hierarchical relationships, etc.) In the case of the political party, the way in which party leaders recruit and retain activists and voters also has profound consequences on the political process, for the party occupies a strategic place in the vertical relationship between citizen and government. In fact, it probably would be accurate to say that the way party leaders go about attracting and retaining organizational activists will be similar to the way they go about appealing for electoral support (Sorauf, 1964 and 1966; Eldersveld, 1964). While many students of organization theory and political parties have recognized the significance of organizational survival, few have made an explicit attempt to develop and test a theoretical framework on the problem (Gluck, 1970; Wilson, 1962; Eldersveld, 1964). Representative of the importance of attracting and retaining grass-roots activists is the statement made by Banfield and Wilson (1963, p. 27) in reference to the groups which participate in big-city politics:


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In particular, it has been assumed that indetgenarational consistency in political attitudes is the usual, if not the inevitable, outcome of the political socialization process in Western democracies as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Political socialization research has been characterized by a number of poorly documented but widely accepted generalizations. In particular, it has been assumed that indetgenarational consistency in political attitudes is the usual, if not the inevitable, outcome of the political socialization process in Western democracies.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A number of political scientists identify two forms of democratic theory: an elitist version and a participatory or citizenship version as discussed by the authors, and the concepts of political-ideological development and belief systems play a central part in this dialogue.
Abstract: A number of political scientists identify two forms of democratic theory. Although the two theory classifications lack perfect agreement about who belongs in which category, the various descriptions distinguish between an elitist version and a participatory or citizenship version of democratic theory (Pateman, 1970; Thompson, 1967; Walker, 1967). The concepts of political-ideological development and belief systems play a central part in this dialogue. For any active citizenship role that theorists might envision for a

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results of the 1973 election showed that the Likud-Mapam alignment had a steadily declining share of the vote, or is it the low point of a curve that will again swing up and underscore the rule of the continued dominance of the labor movement in Israeli politics as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Israel's dominant party system has proved to be very hardy. One party-formerly Mapai, now Labor-has consistently won a plurality of the votes in Israel's eight elections and has always been the major factor in the coalition governments that have ruled the country.'1 The elections on the last day of 1973 had great potential for changing the allocation of power in Israeli politics. Since they occurred shortly after the Yom Kippur War, these elections caught the Labor-Mapam alignment suffering from a shortage of public confidence. In addition, the opposition Likud, newly formed from a number of center and right parties, was encouraged by its good showing in the Histadrut (Labor Federation) election before the war. The popular identification of the Labor party with the achievements of the state was bound to be put to a test after the war. Were the 1973 elections in Israel critical?2 Will they be remembered as the elections "in which more or less profound readjustments occur in the relations of power within the community, and in which new and durable election groupings are formed"?3 Is the 1973 alignment showing signs of a steadily declining share of the vote, or is it the low point of a curve that will again swing up and underscore the rule of the continued dominance of the labor movement in Israeli politics? Before turning to these questions, it is important to establish the extent of change in voting behavior in Israeli elections. The size of the floating vote provides a base point for assessing whether the 1973 elections deviated from previous patterns. The results of the 1973 vote allowed the Labor-Mapam alignment to retain power; but its strength was curtailed from 57 seats in the outgoing 120-seat Knesset to 51 seats in the new one. The second largest parliamentary bloc, the Likud, increased its seats from thirtyone to thirty-nine. But the results emphasize the consistent voting behavior of a large segment of the population in election after election.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated one factor, intensity of opinion, as it relates to the organization and development of the political attitudes in the mass public, and concluded that intensity is an important factor in the development of political attitudes.
Abstract: T THE present time, a good deal of work is being done on the nature, stability, and organization of political attitudes in the mass public. Two important problems in this area are how, if at all, do people organize their political attitudes and what factors lead to organization among political attitudes. This paper undertakes an investigation of one factor, intensity of opinion, as it relates to the organization and development of the political attitudes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the last two decades, research in historical voting behavior has revealed striking stability of partisanship over extended periods as measured by relative constancy in the percentages of the vote obtained by the major parties as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In the last two decades, research in historical voting behavior has revealed striking stability of partisanship over extended periods as measured by relative constancy in the percentages of the vote obtained by the major parties. Students of electoral history maintain that we have had only five party systems since the founding of the nation: I789-I820, The Experimental System; 1828-1854/60, The Democratizing System; I860-1893, The Civil War System; 1894-1932, The Industrialist System; I932-?, The New Deal System.' Political scientists have developed a typology of elections in their examination of the persistence of party systems and the changes from one system to another, concluding that each transition of this kind embraces a "critical" election. This inquiry considers literature dealing with the shift from the fourth to the fifth party system. This article makes no pretense of breaking new ground in dealing with underlying phenomena but calls existing theory into account. Its author is a historian whose main purpose is to remind his colleagues that they should not be so willing to accept other people's "myths," that, indeed, they must do not only their own pick-and-shovel work but also their own theorizing. This reminder, to be sure, is not appropriate for all historians since some of the studies which undermine the myth in question are the work of historians. There is considerable evidence, however, that many other historians, in accepting the election of 1928 as critical, have overlooked findings by historians and political scientists which vitiate this concept. The primary aim of this essay should be borne in mind, for the contention that the delineation of critical periods weakens the concept of critical elections, for example, is not presumed to be news to political scientists. The point is that it will be news to many historians, particularly those who not only accept the concept of the election of 1928 as a critical election but support this

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The public school is the most important and effective instrument of political socialization in the United States, according to as discussed by the authors, which is contrary to the conclusions drawn by Hess and Torney a decade ago.
Abstract: THIS PAPER IDENTIFIES some important propositions, which issue from fourteen studies of political socialization, points to research gaps, and draws implications for the planning of political education programs in schools. The subjects of these studies were chosen from countries in the North American continent, Western Europe, the Middle East (Lebanon, Kuwait, and Jordan), Africa (Sierra Leone and Zaire), and Latin America (Colombia).' Some of the propositions challenge the conclusions drawn by Hess and Torney a decade ago,2 namely, that "The public school is the most important and effective instrument of political socialization in the United States."

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Investigation of the relationship between beliefs in the legitimacy of political objects and approval of political protest and violence among a sample of children and adolescents in a Florida town shows beliefs in political legitimacy are shown to be of considerable importance but have little impact on opinions about protest.
Abstract: A question of general theoretical relevance for political socialization research concerns the role played by basic political orientations in structuring specific political opinions. This report investigates the relationship between beliefs in the legitimacy of political objects and approval of political protest and violence among a sample of children and adolescents. The setting for the research was a Florida town. Four aspects of political legitimacy are defined and measured. Measures of approval of political protest and political violence are distinguished conceptually and empirically. Beliefs in political legitimacy are shown to be of considerable importance in structuring opinions about political violence but have little impact on opinions about protest.