Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1977"

On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections

Abstract: Several authors have observed a decline in the number of competitive congressional districts during the past two decades. Various explanations have been proposed for this change. Among these are theories attributing major causal significance to changing methods of drawing district boundaries, and increasing control of campaign resources by incumbents. These theories are examined critically and arguments are advanced for their rejection. The principal cause of the decline of competition for congressional seats appears to rest on a change in individual voting behavior.

From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behavior

Abstract: To live is to have problems. However the country as a whole fares, the individual has bills to pay, work to do, children to worry about – to mention only a few of the commonplace problems that people face in their daily lives. Commonplace or not, these are problems that people must wrestle with. They are immediate, inescapable, and serious, far more so for most than the ‘large’ issues facing the country. Students of voting have long suspected that such problems may influence political choices, but key questions remain unanswered. Which personal problems are taken to be political and which non-political? Do personal problems have an impact on voting behavior only if they are taken to be political? When and how do personal problems become translated into political choices? In this paper we shall address such questions as these.

On the Meaning of Political Support

Abstract: The incumbent vs. system affect distinction is basic in the conceptualization of political support. It is based on the premise that system affect is a more important antecedent of aggressive political behavior than incumbent affect. The data reported here show that it is possible to distinguish incumbent from system affect empirically, and also theoretically important to make the incumbent-system distinction. Measures especially sensitive to incumbent affect correlate differently with ideology than does a measure especially sensitive to system affect. Byvariate correlations between measures of incumbent affect and a measure of aggressive political behavior are shown to be either spurious or indirect, due to the fact that incumbent affect is correlated with what appears to be a more powerful and direct antecedent of aggressive political behavior, namely, system affect. The theory behind the incumbent-system distinction is expressed in four propositions. In general, the data conform to it, but each prediction is qualified according to whether ideology and community context are inhibitory or facilitative.

An Outline for a Model of Party Choice

Abstract: This article is a synthetic effort. It attempts to mold the issue voter of traditional democratic theory and rational choice models with the "nature of the times" and partisan voters of empirical voting studies. The vehicle for this attempted synthesis is a voter decision rule more complex, more inclusive, and perhaps less "rational" than others previously suggested. After motivating and developing the formal representation of the decision rule, a variety of empirical findings about voting behavior are reexamined in light of the rule. Some reinterpretations result, particularly in the case of party identification. This article takes a first step toward formalizing a number of ideas about American voting behavior. Specifically, I will sketch a model which integrates the familiar notions of party identification, retrospective voting, and issue voting into a single decision rule. As intimated, the ideas in this paper are not new ones. But the process of formalizing familiar notions may force a greater degree of precision in our thinking, and perhaps make evident the full implications of the ways we think about voting behavior (see Fiorina, 1975). The article divides into two sections. In the first I outline a model of the individual voting decision, proceeding from the simplest conception of electoral choice to the most complex. This section is largely abstract. In the second section of the paper I attempt to show that the model provides an explanation for a variety of empirical findings which emerge from the research of specialists in voting behavior. Such findings include low correlations between specific issue positions and the ultimate vote decision, the general importance of party ID for voting behavior and why it may vary over time, the strengthening of party ID with political experience in some societies but not in others, incumbency advantages, the importance of the personal qualities of candidates for office, and others.

The ritualistic and pragmatic bases of political campaign discourse

Abstract: (1977). The ritualistic and pragmatic bases of political campaign discourse. Quarterly Journal of Speech: Vol. 63, No. 3, pp. 219-238.

Patterns of Change in the Partisan Loyalties of Native Southerners: 1952- 1972

Abstract: INCE THE INCURSIONS made by Strom Thurmond on the solid South in 1948, a great deal of interest has come to focus on the electoral behavior of this region. From the historical and descriptive point of view, the crumbling of the traditional Democratic hegemony provokes continued fascination. However, the major interest which this region now holds for the political scientist is the opportunity it presents to advance theoretical thinking about voting behavior. In particular, the existence of rapid change allows a fresh examination of the controversy which has arisen over the place which partisan self-identification has come to occupy in the pantheon of political science concepts. The goal of this study is to

Partisan Cleavage and Cohesion in the House of Representatives, 1861-1974

Abstract: Partisan Cleavage and Cohesion in the House of Representatives, I86I-1974 The American Congress surely qualifies as one of the most intensively studied political institutions of the world, past or present. Historians and political scientists have examined the Congress in detail in various temporal contexts and from a variety of perspectives. In recent years much of this work has been concerned either directly or tangentially with the role and influence of political parties in Congress. It has involved meticulous, quantitative analyses of congressional voting records. Concern for the functions and influence of political parties in Congress is understandable. The party system is among the most prominent structural elements of Congress, and in numerous historical contexts party affiliation has been found to be a major correlate, although not necessarily a determinant, of congressional voting behavior. Political parties also exist in the larger political system and are often seen as the principal agencies of modern polities for mobilizing and structuring mass participation in politics and for aggregating and articulating popular interests and demands. In this view, political parties link Congress and its members to the larger political system and are vital mechanisms of responsible and representative government. But despite numerous investigations, knowledge of the functioning of political parties in Congress is incomplete in critical ways. Studies of Congress have been disproportionately crosssectional in nature, concerned with the behavior of members of Congress and the performance of congressional institutions during limited time periods. The work of political scientists has focused primarily upon the years since 1945, and historians have concentrated upon limited temporal eras, usually those marked by conflict and intensive controversy. Without considering problems presented by methodological diversity, the essentially episodic focus of this research has been such that the results of investigations do not readily combine to provide an adequate cross-

Psychological needs and political behavior : a theory of personality and political efficacy

Abstract: A political scientist assesses the implications of an individual's desire to exercise personal control which he identifies as a prime motive for politica involvement.

Temporal Orientations and Political Life: The Psychology of Political Impatience

Abstract: This brief paper has two purposes. The first is to suggest some reasons why the study of time is important and should be of interest to political analysts. The second is to present some data which link one aspect of temporal analysis, political impatience, with a range of political orientations and behaviors. Although the magnitude of the correlations reported is not large, the patterns of association suggest a syndrome to which more attention may be profitably turned.

Discriminant Functions, Role Orientations and Judicial Behavior: Theoretical and Methodological Linkages

Abstract: IN A RECENT ARTICLE Sidney Ulmer presented an interesting theoretical use of discriminant functions, or fact pattern analysis.' Ulmer's research focused upon a concept which he termed "political activism" and its influence upon judicial behavior. Political activism is defined "as the ability of political or non-legal factors to explain variation in voting behavior. 2 His substantive application of fact pattern analysis concerned the behavior of five

On preferences, beliefs, and manipulation within voting situations'

Abstract: This paper shows that no nondictatorial voting procedure exists that induces each voter to choose his voting strategy solely on the basis of his preferences and independently of his beliefs concerning other voters' preferences. This necessary dependence between a voter's beliefs and his choice of strategy means that a voter can manipulate another voter's choice of strategy by misleading him into adopting inaccurate beliefs concerning other voters' beliefs. CONSIDER A VOTING SITUATION, as in a committee. Each rational member has preferences over the alternatives being considered and beliefs concerning the other members' preferences. The question we consider in this short paper is: can a voting procedure be constructed such that each member's vote depends only on his preferences, not on his beliefs concerning other individual preferences. We show, by an application of Gibbard [6] and Satterthwaite's [11] impossibility theorem for strategy-proof voting procedures, that such a voting procedure does not exist. Moreover, we show that this necessary lack of independence between a member's beliefs and his choice of voting strategy makes him vulnerable to possible manipulation by other members. Specifically, consider members one and two. Since member one partially bases his vote on what he believes member two is seeking, member two may deliberately mislead member one into adopting a false belief concerning member two's preferences. As a consequence of this inaccurate belief, member one may decide to vote in a manner that is, in fact, unfavorable to himself and favorable to member two. Derivation of these results depends critically on the possibility that members may be uncertain concerning other members' preferences. This assumption is reasonable because the purpose of legislative bodies is to reconcile conflicting preferences. If preferences were generally known with certainty, then, as Wilson [14, p. 310] has pointed out, the need for a legislative body would vanish because preferences could be aggregated directly. Therefore, a realistic analysis of voting behavior must accept that a member's true preferences are private. Our results are consistent with the work that other researchers have reported. Dummett and Farquharson [3, pp. 34-35] and, to a lesser extent, NVilson [14] assumed the validity of our results. Harsanyi [7] in discussing bargaining situations where the two opponents are uncertain concerning the other's preferences argued that the decisive element may not be the actual preferences of the two individuals involved, but rather the societal "stereotypes" (beliefs) concerning their preferences. Schelling (12, e.g., Ch. 3] in his insightful discussion of bargaining strategy dwells extensively on the same theme.

Stability and Change in Japanese Voting Behavior, 1958–72

Abstract: The analysis of change and stability in voting behavior is an important component of contemporary political behavior research. Because of implications for continuity and discontinuity in national political leadership, both stability and change in aggregate electoral choices are of special importance in present-day Japan. Also, because there have been tendencies toward stability in some sectors of the Japanese electorate and great fluidity elsewhere, the nature and sources of consistent and fluid voting behavior are of special interest. In the ensuing discussion, two kinds of basic analysis are presented: one deals with the question of the degree and location of stable voting trends and fluid behavior; the second seeks to identify the sources of both shifting and constant choices.

Legislative profits and the economic theory of representative voting: An empirical investigation

Abstract: The statistical findings of this study support the economic theory of representative voting. In general, producer and consumer groups influence representative voting behavior as expected. The findings suggest that legislators act “rationally” when confronted by competing lobbying groups. The consistently positive and highly significant influence of MSB share which serves to measure MSB influencerelative to the other bank groups indicates that legislators appear to consider opportunity costs in their decision-making calculus.

Education and Political Development

Abstract: COLEMAN, WRITING IN 1965, CONSIDERED EDUCATION (primarily formal education) to perform important functions in the political system.' These functions included (a) the socialization of children and youth into the political culture, (b) the selection, recruitment, and training of political elites, and (c) the political integration or nation building of groups of people. Massialas further elaborated on the relationship between education and the political order by examining specific works in comparative theory and research.2 In these works it is proposed that a political system, in order to survive, needs support from its citizens. Education has often provided this support through the process of political socialization. If the political orientations of the citizens, trained in a nation's schools, were congenial to the system, the system may have maintained its existence and continuity. If the orientations imparted by education or other social agencies (e.g., the family, the church, the peer group) were not supportive of the system, the system either collapsed or changed in order to meet the new demands arising out of new orientations and expectations. (The student movement of the late '60s in the United States regarding the war in Vietnam and the change in administrative policy may provide an example of partial system responsiveness to demands.) In a similar way education may contribute to system change or maintenance through its function as a recruiting agent for the system. Especially in developing countries, education plays a pivotal role in selecting and training potential leaders. If nationals of a country do not have the proper credentials (often regardless of what they actually know or the content of the school program under which they were taught) they do not have a chance in the competition for key positions in the government and in the civil service. When schools are "captured" by a governing elite they tend to use selective criteria for admission, criteria which will keep "undesirable elements" out of school. Conversely, there is a natural inclination in these schools to recruit those who are sympathetic to the government, i.e., the offspring of people occupying important positions in the system. Thus, in some countries, education tends to accentuate the elite-mass gap or, if used in a more open way, it may close the gap. When we talk about political integration of a nation, the elite-mass gap constitutes only one of the dimensions. Another major dimension is what Coleman refers to as the

Electoral choice in 1972: A test of some theorems of the spatial model of electoral competition*

Abstract: Data about the 1972 U.S. Presidential election are used to test theorems from the spatial model of electoral competition, a theory of social choice expressed through the voting mechanism. Four statistical models are derived from the theorems and tested against the data. All four models are supported in the data, predict voting behavior well, and generally appear to satisfy the requisite conditions. The best fitting model is then examined in more detail. This model continues to meet the theoretical conditions under more exacting inquiry. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of this analysis for social choice and the spatial models and for understanding electoral behavior.

Spatial Voting Models for the French Fifth Republic

Abstract: In this study formal spatial models are applied to cross-sectional analysis of district results on the second ballot of French legislative elections. A model of probabilistic spatial voting better accounts for the data than either standard “ecological” models or a model of deterministic spatial voting. There are three substantive findings concerning voter behavior. First, the adjustment of voters to external information can be largely viewed as a shift in the spatial (Left-Right) distribution of voters. This shift, plus decisions by parties and candidates as to which districts parties will contest, determines the first ballot outcome. In arriving at second ballot choices, voters then appear to utilize decision rules that have a substantial degree of temporal stability. A second and related finding is that the second ballot can be reasonably accounted for by a single Left-Right dimension. Third, in those districts with three or more candidates on the second ballot, there may be substantial strategic voting with voters switching from candidates close to their ideal points but unlikely to win to more distant candidates who are more likely to win. The existence of strategic voting is suggested by the finding that models based solely on spatial preferences perform well for two-candidate districts, but less well for three- or four-candidate districts.

Voter Turnout and Political Efficacy Among Mexican-Americans in Michigan1

Abstract: A description and explanation of the research on levels of political interest and feelings of political efficacy among Mexican-Americans is presented. The primary concerns are comparing Mexican-Americans with other Americans, determining the effect of the Mexican-American subculture, and evaluating the usefulness of standard explanations of variations in political interest and feeling of political efficacy in explaining variations among Mexican-Americans. The research sample included 465 Mexican-Americans in Michigan. Contrary to past studies, which have described Mexican-Americans as politically inactive and fatalistic, we found that Mexican-Americans did not differ significantly from other similar Americans in voting turnout and political efficacy. The Mexican-American subculture did not discourage voting or encourage a sense of powerlessness. Generally, standard theories were useful in explaining variations in voting turnout and political efficacy among Mexican-Americans. An additional factor of importance was the perception of the status of Mexican-Americans in society.

The Historical Experiment as a Research Strategy in the Study of World Politics

Abstract: As one looks back on the important developments in political science over the past two decades, there is much to be applauded. While it may be premature to say that we have come “of age” as a scientific discipline, the field is clearly in better shape today than it was in the early 1950s. One indicator is the ratio between mere speculation and observed empirical regularities reported in our journal articles. Another is the decline in the percentage (if not in absolute numbers) of our colleagues who insist that political phenomena are just not amenable to scientific examination. A third might be the dramatic increase in the number of political scientists who have been exposed to training in the techniques and rationale of data making and data analysis. The list could be extended, but we need not do so here. On the other hand, a stance of comfortable complacency would be very premature. Not only have we fared badly in coming to grips with the knowledge-action relationship in the abstract, but we have by and large done a poor job of shaping the policies of our respective national, provincial, and local governments. Since others as well as myself have dealt—if not definitively—with these issues before, let me eschew further discussion of the knowledge application question for the moment, and go on to matters of basic research. Of the more serious flaws to date, two stand out particularly. One is the lack of balance between a concern for cumulativeness on the one hand and the need for innovation on the other. My impression is that students of national politics (at least those who work in the vineyard of empirical regularities) have been more than conscientious in staying with one set of problems, such as the relationship between political attitudes and voting behavior. But students of inter-national politics have, conversely, tended to move all too quickly from one problem to another, long before cumulative evidence has been generated and before our findings are integrated into coherent wholes.

Values in Political Science: The Concept of Allocation

Abstract: DESPITE THE GROWING ACCEPTANCE of the thesis that political science is necesarily a value-laden discipline' two of its central aspects have received surprisingly little detailed analysis. There is, first, a need to determine the precise manner in which values are unavoidably introduced into political science.2 And, secondly, there is the further task of explicitly identifying which values are built into the study of politics.3

The rhetoric of political newscasting

Abstract: Television has become the major source of news for most Americans. Therefore, it seems important to consider television's rhetorical potential to influence the public's understanding of political affairs. The purpose of this essay is to explore some of the ways television news reporting, documentaries and docu‐dramas may lead us to know and judge political events, political leadership and political institutions.

Political perception and political preference. an exploratory study of swedish political parties.

Abstract: Political perception was studied as a function of the perceiver's political viewpoint. The political stimuli used were the names of 9 Swedish political parties or organizations. Political viewpoint was defined by the person's political party preference. The subjects were 105 undergraduate psychology students. Different aspects of political party perception were studied concerning (a) perceived positions of the parties on a Left-Right con- tinuum, (b) perceived similarity among parties, and (c) the number and nature of inferred dimensions and categories underlying the perception of the parties. With regard to (a) and (b), the analyses indicated systematic differences among political preference groups, whereas the number and nature of political dimensions seemed to be the same. Thus, for both socialists and nonsocialists the dimensions underlying the perception of Swedish political parties could be interpreted as "left-right", "extremity", and "re- ligiosity".

Legislative Role Orientations and Support for Party and Chief Executive in the Indiana House

Abstract: This article examines the relationship between role orientations and roll-call voting behavior in the 1969 session of the Indiana House of Representatives. Role orientations toward party, separation of powers, style and areal focus of representation are correlated (Pearson's r) with Republican and Democratic legislators' support for party and gubernatorial positions on contested bills. Role orientations are also entered into multiple regression analysis of party and gubernatorial support. Role orientations are found to relate rather weakly, if at all, to the roll-call voting measures. Majorityminority status affects the relationships, with roles appearing to be more important among the minority Democratic legislators. Variables more useful to an explanation of roll-call support for party and governor include length of legislative service, the legislators' perceptions of the primary competition in the legislative district, district interparty competition, and strength or importance of local party organizations to election. Roles appear to be important only at the margins in explanations of party and gubernatorial support in roll-call voting.

How Conservative Are American Catholics

Abstract: It has become part of the conventional wisdom that, while they traditionally used to vote Democratic, Catholic ethnics are now conservative. They are more likely to be racist, less likely to support civil liberties, more likely to take a punitive attitude toward the counterculture. They were stronger supporters of the Vietnam war thanother Americans, and voted heavily for Wallace in 1968. As many of them moved into the suburbs and became more affluent, they began to drift away from the Democratic party in both affiliation and voting behavior. Although this description of the voting behavior and views of American Catholics seems unexceptionable, it happens to be demonstrably untrue. The remainder of this article will present empirical data showing that this "accepted" view is false and will offer a more accurate and realistic account of how Catholics have been participating in the American political system.'

Identifying Voting Strategies from Roll Call Votes: A Method and an Application

Abstract: Students of institutions characterized by plural or repetitive voting show an increasing concern with strategic voting (Niemi and Riker, 1976). Those who study legislative behavior are keenly aware of the importance of strategic voting as an element in the legislative process (Ferejohn and Fiorina, 1975). Game and social choice theorists are beginning to provide valuable theoretical and conceptual insights into the strategic behavior of legislators and legislatures (Arrow, 1951; Black, 1958; Buchanan and Tullock, 1962; Riker, 1962). Empirical researchers are relying increasingly on such theories and concepts, while continuing to provide richly detailed descriptions and explanations of legislative behavior (Fenno, 1973; Hinckley, 1972; Manley, 1970; Mayhew, 1974; Rhode and Shepsle, 1973). Students of judicial behavior (Murphy, 1964; Howard, 1968; Rhode and Spaeth, 1976), parties and party systems (Downs, 1957; Sjoblom, 1968), and more generally coalition behavior (Groennings, Kelley and Leiserson, 1970) also express a keen interest in strategic voting. Unfortunately, these theoretical and descriptive developments have not produced a corresponding concern for deriving a valid and efficient method for identifying any major patterns of strategic voting behavior. The dominant methods for analyzing patterns of roll call voting behavior are still those of cumulative scaling and factor analysis. The utility and importance of these techniques is not questioned here, but the assumptions underlying them are at odds with the concept of strategic voting. Admirable advances in measurement such as multi-dimensional scaling (Weisberg and

Political Information, Party Identification and Voting Defection

Abstract: A NUMBER OF recent studies have argued persuasively that policy issues play a significant role in voter decision-making' Although they are an important addition to voting research, these studies leave several major questions about the information level of the voter unresolved This is unfortunate, for the quantity and quality of the underlying information must affect one's interpretation of the studies' findings The purpose of this research note is to present data that have bearing on two of these unresolved considerations-namely, the relationship between political information and (1) strength of party identification and (2) voting defection On the basis of the impressive investigations conducted by the Michigan Survey Research Center/Center for Political Studies (SRC/CPS), it is generally thought that strong partisans are more informed than weak partisans And weak partisans, in turn, are presumed to be more informed than Independents Partisans, however, apparently use their information to reinforce their partisanship As Converse puts it: "The

The Rise of Class-Based Voting in London

Abstract: At some point near the turn of the century social class displaced religion as the principal source of political conflict in England. The class interpretation of English voting contradicts another historical tradition, which treats religion, not social class, as the major force behind party affiliation in the period before World War I. This note uses aggregate data on political behavior in London to contribute to the debate on the relative importance of class and religion in English voting behavior from 1885 to 1910. The evidence presented here indicates that the role of social class has been overstated in recent historical research and, by implication, confirms the findings of those scholars who identify religion as the crucial determinant of party choice before the war.

The neglected candidate: Interpersonal communication in political campaigns

Abstract: (1977). The neglected candidate: Interpersonal communication in political campaigns. Western Journal of Speech Communication: Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 245-252.