Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1981"

Prejudice and politics: Symbolic racism versus racial threats to the good life.

Abstract: Although theories of prejudice have been extensively catalogued, empirical confrontations between competing theories are surprisingly rare. The primary goal of the present research was to test two major theoretical approaches to prejudice by whites against blacks: realistic group conflict theory, which emphasizes the tangible threats blacks might pose to whites' private lives; and a sociocultural theory of prejudice termed symbolic racism, which emphasizes abstract, moralistic resentments of blacks, presumably traceable to preadult socialization. The main dependent variable in our analysis is suburban whites' voting behavior in two mayoral elections in Los Angeles, both strongly influenced by racial issues, that matched the same two candidates, one black and one white. In both elections, symbolic racism (sociocultural prejudice) was the major determinant of voting against the black candidate for people removed from possible personal threats posed by blacks as well as for those at risk. Direct racial threats to whites' private lives (to their jobs, their neighborhoods, their children's schooling, their families' safety) had little effect on either antiblack voting behavior or symbolic racism. The article closes by developing the implications of these results for theories of prejudice and, more speculatively, for interpretations of the effects of voters' private lives on their political behavior. Theories of racial prejudice suffer from benign neglect. Although the theories themselves have been extensively and ably catalogued (most notably, by Allport, 1954; Ashmore & DelBoca, 1976; LeVine & Campbell, 1972), empirical confrontations between alternative theories occupy surprisingly little

The Origins and Meaning of Liberal/Conservative Self-Identifications.

Abstract: A critical element in the model is the specification of the relationship between ideological labels and self-identifications. The lack of bipolar meaning assumes a special significance when considered in conjunction with individual self-identifications. Turning to the content of meaning, both cognitive factors and political symbols can influence attitudes towards liberals and conservatives, and thus ideological self-identifications. Ideological self-identification was measured in terms of a standard CPS question which focuses on political liberal/conservative identification. Ideological self-identifications, therefore, may serve an important function for the public by providing a symbolic framework which simplifies societal conflicts. Specifically, ideological identifications are found to have largely symbolic meanings, a fact that helps to explain some of the findings concerning the relationship of the liberal/conservative continuum to political perception and behavior. Along similar lines, John D. Holm and John P. Robinson have compared the impact of partisan and ideological identifications on voting behavior.

Personal Attribute Models of the Voting Behavior of U.S. Supreme Court Justices: Liberalism in Civil Liberties and Economics Decisions, 1946–1978

Abstract: The prevailing view among students of judicial politics is that judges' background characteristics or personal attributes cannot provide satisfactory explanations for variation in their decision-making behavior. Parsimonious attribute models reported here account for 70 to 90 percent of the variance in the voting of postwar Supreme Court justices in split decisions concerning civil rights and liberties, and economics. Seven variables representing six meaningful and easily interpretable concepts achieve this success. The concepts are Judge's Party Identification, Appointing President, Prestige of Prelaw Education (economics only), Appointed from Elective Office, Appointment Region (civil liberties only), Extensiveness of Judicial Experience, and Type of Prosecutorial Experience. The impressive performance of these models is attributed to superior measurement, operationalization, and model building; to a greater similarity between personal attribute models and more fully specified ones than has been assumed; and to the possibility that the attitudes which intervene between the personal attributes and the voting of judges are causally very closely linked to voting.

Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues

Abstract: This study explores the hypothesis that voting in response to economic problems is policy-oriented voters concerned about unemployment are predicted to give greater support to Democratic candidates, while those concerned about the inflation are predicted to vote more Republican. In light of evidence from previous research, this study investigates the electoral effects of inflation and unemployment as (1) problems directly experience by the individual, and (2) problems deemed serious for the nation as a whole. Support is strongest for the unemployment side of the hypothesis. Voters personally affected by unemployment gave a modest boost to Democratic canidates in virtually every election. And in years of high unemployment at the large percentage of voters who felt it was a serious national problem voted heavily Democratic as well. This study concludes by discussing the important implications these findings have for our understanding of how economic conditons influence voting behavior in American national elections.

Differentiation and Integration: Two Dimensions of Political Thinking.

Abstract: Conceptual differentiation refers to the number of discrete elements of political information individuals utilize in their evaluation of political issues. In contrast with the more commonly used textbookish political knowledge indices, this measure corresponds more closely to knowledge-in-use. Conceptual integration is defined as the spontaneous and explicit organization of ideas and information in terms of abstract or ideological constructs and represents an expansion of Philip Converse's research on levels of ideological thinking in mass publics. These two related dimensions of political information processing emerge from a detailed content analysis of depth interview transcripts. The analysis reveals substantial variation in the way citizens relate the condition of their own lives to those of their fellow citizens and to political authorities. As expected, education plays a central role in explaning these patterns, but there are some surprising interactive linkages between education and patterns of pol...

Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues

Abstract: This study explores the hypothesis that voting in response to economic problems is policy-oriented: voters concerned about unemployment ore predicted to give greater support to Democratic candidates, while those concerned about inflation are predicted to vote more Republican. In light of evidence from previous research, this study investigates the electoral effects of inflation and unemployment as (1) problems directly experienced by the individual, and (2) problems deemed serious for the nation as a whole. Support is strongest for the unemployment side of the hypothesis. Voters personally affected by unemployment gave a modest boost to Democratic candidates in virtually every election. And in years of high unemployment the large percentage of voters who fell it was a serious national problem voted heavily Democratic as well. This study concludes by discussing the important implications these findings have for our understanding of how economic conditions influence voting behavior in American national elections.

Political Cues and the Perception of Candidates

Abstract: Though typically they have not been the subject of systematic analysis, political cues are often depicted as having a major influence on voters' perceptions of political candidates. In this regard, different interpretations have been offered by those adopting perceptual balance and rational choice perspectives. After reviewing the points of controversy separating these two approaches, a more comprehensive explanation of political cues is offered. In particular, the use of political cues is depicted as involving two key elements: the political cue and the political stereotype with which the cue is associated. The implications of this perspective for voter rationality are then discussed. Finally, some of the key hypotheses are tested, and found to be supported through the use of experimental data.

The 1928–1936 Partisan Realignment: The Case for the Conversion Hypothesis

Abstract: An unresolved question concerning the New Deal realignment is the extent to which the Democratic surge in the vote resulted from either the conversion of former Republicans or the mobilization of newly active voters. Analyzing survey data from the Literary Digest straw polls and from early Gallup polls, we find evidence supporting the conversion hypothesis. New voters in 1928, 1932 and 1936 were only slightly more Democratic in their voting behavior than were established voters. Between 1924 and 1936, the vote among established voters was extremely volatile, largely accounting for the Democratic gains. After 1936, however, vote shifts became minimal and party identification had become highly consistent with presidential voting, suggesting a crystallization of the New Deal realignment by the late 1930s rather than a gradual evolution due to generational replacement.

Liberalism, Environmentalism, and Partisanship in Public Policy-Making The California Coastal Commissions

Abstract: This article examines the effects of partisanship, liberalism, environmental concern, and issue salience on both the general policy preferences and the actual voting behavior of administrative officials in a state agency concerned with land use and natural resources management. Building upon earlier studies of interest groups and legislative bodies, this analysis of the members of the California Coastal Commissions suggests several refinements in current thinking about the relation of environmental concern to traditional ideological and partisan cleavages. First, while our findings confirm the association found in most previous elite studies between liberalism and support for protection of natural resources, they also indicate that it is only two of the three components of liberalism that are relevant-government regulation of the market and local government autonomy as opposed to attitudes toward the welfare state. Second, party identification proves of minimal value in explaining the policy preferences a...

Voting in Union Certification Elections: A Conceptual Analysis

Abstract: Facets of job satisfaction have been considered as direct predictors of voting in union certification elections in most previous research, but the relationship between satisfaction and voting is more complex. Our model of union certification voting behavior, based on Fishbein's [1967] theory of behavioral intentions, predicts that employees' attitudes toward voting for a union are influenced by their satisfaction with the economic facets of their jobs. Employees' general subjective norms toward unions are influenced by perceived expectations of the supervisor and co-workers, and by individual characteristics.

Bloc Voting and The Freshman Justice Revisited

Abstract: A NEWLY APPOINTED JUSTICE often comes to the United States Supreme Court with the opportunity to have an immediate impact on decisions involving some of the significant policy questions of the day. Such an opportunity to influence policy is more meaningful when the "freshman justice" joins a closely divided court on which a single vote may tip the balance on a decision, or when a single president has the opportunity to appoint several like-minded justices in a single term. Recognizing the importance of the appointment process as a means of influencing judicial decisions, presidents throughout history have sought to name individuals who would support the president's policy goals once on the Court. 1 Thus, the question of how a newly appointed justice is likely to vote is of interest not only to the president, but to all who recognize the Supreme Court's policy-making function. Of particular interest is the question of whether the voting behavior of new justices differs from that of more senior members of the Court. Is the voting behavior of newcomers immediately

The determinants of voting by the National Labor Relations Board on unfair labor practice cases: 1955–1975

Abstract: This study has employed logit analysis in an attempt to determine important variables that influence the voting by the NLRB on unfair labor practice cases. Pooled regression results on the odds of voting prolabor were reported for the administrations of Eisenhower, Kennedy-Johnson and Nixon and for the entire period 1955–1975. A number of interesting findings are offered in this empirical investigation of the NLRB. First, it was found that if a Board member is reappointed to the Board, the greater will be the odds that the member will vote prolabor. This verifies the speculation that the Democrats preferred a solidly prolabor voting Board, and that the Republicans desired a strong prolabor voting minority on the Board. Secondly, political variables such as the party of the administration appointing the NLRB member and the member's own political party had an influence on the odds of voting prolabor. If the administration in power was Democratic or if the Board member was a Democrat, the greater were the odds that the member would vote prolabor. Even if a member of the Board professed to be an independent politically, which was the case for two members during the Eisenhower Administration, this variable was found to have a positive effect on prolabor voting for that particular administration and for the entire study period. Also, in the Eisenhower and Nixon administrations, being a former nonmember employee of the NLRB may have had some impact on the voting behavior. Finally, variables for economic conditions in the economy were introduced into the regression equations to test whether or not these variables had any effect on the voting behavior of the NLRB members. In almost all of the logit models reported, the unemployment rate had an influence on voting by Board members. The effect was found to be positive in the Eisenhower period and negative in the Kennedy-Johnson and Nixon periods. The effect for the entire period was positive. It is suggested that whether or not the influence of the unemployment rate on the voting on unfair labor practice cases was positive or negative depended on how the Board perceived the role of organized labor in the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. If the members believe that organized labor's demands for higher wages caused accelerated inflation when the administration in power was simultaneously trying to reduce unemployment, then the odds of the member voting prolabor were reduced. Besides the unemployment rate, some other economic condition variables that were found to have a possible effect on NLRB voting during the Kennedy-Johnson administration were real GNP, strike days lost, and union membership in the United States. While admittedly this study is only a first attempt at modeling the voting behavior of the NLRB on important unfair labor practice decisions, we believe that we have captured some of the most important political and economic variables that effect the behavior of a quasi-judicial agency — the NLRB.

The impact of campaign spot advertising on voting defections

Abstract: This research investigates the possibility that political campaign communication is partially responsible for recent increases in the number of voters defecting from their partisan identification when making their electoral choices. Survey and contextual data from 1970, 1972, and 1974 are used to explain why some voters defect from their party identification when voting for senatorial and congressional candidates while others do not. Multiple regression and discriminant analysis indicate that exposure to political broadcast advertising is an important explanatory variable, even when holding constant a variety of other independent variables. Consequently, the availability of this form of campaign communication may have implications for the traditional functions of American political parties and for the dynamics of the public policy process.

Explaining House Voting On Energy Policy: Ideology and the Conditional Effects of Party and District Economic Interests

Abstract: T _HE IMPORTANCE of congressional decisions on energy policy has provoked considerable speculation but relatively little empirical analysis on why congressmen vote as they do.1 Speculation has focused on three main factors as explanations for congressional voting behavior on energy policy: (1) the relative economic benefit to the district; (2) the party affiliation of the congressman; and (3) the ideology of the congressman. This analysis of votes on energy policy during the 94th Congress demonstrates the relative importance of the ideological factor and explores the ways in which the other factors condition the relationship between ideology and voting behavior on energy. This analysis is needed substantively as a counterweight to much of the published material, especially that by energy-policy specialists, which incorrectly attributes congressional voting behavior to constituency pressures. It also makes a significant methodological contribution by going beyond mere establishment of the relative importance of ideology to show how party and constituency interests condition the impact of ideology on voting.

The Changing Swedish Electorate Class Voting, Contextual Effects, and Voter Volatility

Abstract: This article attempts to assess the contribution of long-term changes in Swedish social structure to three recent developments in Swedish electoral behavior: the decline of the Social Democrats, the decline in class voting, and the increase in the volatility of party preference. The author argues that the decline of the Social Democrats cannot be attributed to long-term structural changes in the electorate but rather is a product of the policies and electoral strategies pursued by the parties. The decline in class voting is found to be partly attributable to long-term structural change. Original secondary analysis of survey data is then presented to show that the socioeconomic composition of individuals' places of residence affects their voting behavior independent of individual-level characteristics. The author then argues that the parties' policies and electoral strategies have reinforced the tendency toward decreasing class voting. Finally, both long-term structural changes and the decline in class vot...

Political participation, diffuse support and perceptions of political efficacy as predictors of mass media use

Abstract: Most research on the development of political orientations in children indicates that diffuse support, political efficacy and political participation develop earlier in life than regular and extensive use of television and newspapers for public affairs information. I therefore argue that political orientation variables should be treated as predictor, rather than criterion variables in analyses of political communication. A test of the model utilizing surveys of 190 Mexican‐American, 176 black and 225 white adults shows that of the independent variables used in the regression models, political participation is the strongest predictor of media use for public affairs information. Respondents from all three ethnic groups who were politically active were also heavier users of TV and newspapers for public affairs information. This tendency can be attributed to the social and practical utility of public affairs information for the politically active citizen, as well as to the reinforcement value of the informati...

Why Voters Turn Out for Tax Limitation Votes

Abstract: The paper is a sequel to a previous study (NT J, March 1980) in which we surveyed 2001 Michigan households to see why they voted for or against some tax limitation proposals on the 1978 ballot. Here we use the same survey to explain why voters went to the polls in the first place. We use an iterative least squares technique to estimate a parameter reflecting the propensity of nonvoters to vote "yes" on a tax limit amendment , finding that they were approximately as likely to vote for it as "no" voters. Translated, this means that the "true believers" in tax limitation turned out and voted yes, while those not in favor apparently had milder preferences such that the turnout choice among the latter group was close to random. This supports a variant of what political scientists call the řř alienation " theory. IN sults a previous of a voter paper survey we given analyzed right the after results f a oter s rvey given ri h ter the 1978 Michigan vote on a series of tax limitation amendments.1 The results of the analysis were, on the whole, disappointing to those who like to model fiscal choices as the outcome of a rational, informed voting process. Even though one tax limitation amendment, the Headlee Amendment, passed, there did not appear to be pervasive feeling either that government spending was excessive in Michigan, that the number of public employees was too great or that public wages were too high. Most of the support for tax limitation came from those who felt taxes would be cut even though they did not favor reductions in spending, or from those who felt the amendment would in some undefined way improve governmental efficiency or voter control. It is not clear what public finance economists can or should do about these findings. It is obviously costly to give complex *The University of Michigan. voter surveys every time an economist wants to model a public choice outcome. But on the other hand economists should not ignore the results either. The usual model of voting behavior simply relates spending demand to voter attributes (income, tax price, age, race, etc.),2 glossing over what we find to be a host of complications regarding how different people perceive different fiscal packages, and how they then vote. In this paper we extend the results of this analysis to another aspect of the voting decision, the question of whether or not a potential voter will go to the polls in the first place. This is an issue that has long fascinated political scientists,23 but here we employ methodology more familiar to economists. Again the rational model would say that voters would go to the polls if their benefits of voting outweighed their costs. Hence if voters were relatively indifferent between two fiscal packages, they will be predicted not to vote, while if they have strong preferences on one side or the other, they will be predicted to vote. As with our analysis for voters, the survey of non voters as well as voters makes it possible to test more precisely various turnout hypotheses. This paper begins with a short review of our results for voters. Then we apply the same model to the turnout decisions finding results that are not very favorable to the indifference hypothesis. We conclude with a few checks on our results, and some interpretations of the new findings. Explaining Voter Preferences One can imagine three types of models to explain the votes of voters on, say, a tax limitation issue. The first, and most commonly used by economists, will be termed the attributes model, where votes are related directly to attributes of voters. This might be analogous to a reduced form model in other contexts. Then there

Explaining and Predicting Japanese General Elections, 1960-1980

Abstract: Despite the recent application of Western social science theories and methods to the study of Japanese elections, the result has been a reemphasis of cultural and idiosyncratic factors in electoral politics. The study of Japanese elections has thus once more become isolated from comparative social science research. Much of the cause of this problem has been the failure to develop a systematic theoretical model of voting behavior with the ability to account for electoral results. The major thrust of this article is to demonstrate that even the simplest version of a theoretically oriented model performs reasonably well in explaining and predicting electoral outcomesindeed, better than the predictions of major Japanese newspapers made shortly before each general election-and that no resort to cultural peculiarities or uniqueness is necessary to explain more than 62 per cent of the variance in electoral outcomes.

Personal Finances and Voting Behavior: A Reanalysis

Abstract: Four major shortcomings of existing studies of the presumed linkage between personal economic circumstances and voting decisions are discerned. These shortcomings leave open the possibility that hypotheses premised on "rational economic man" which have received minimal empirical support to this point may nonetheless be valid. However, when these shortcomings are corrected and a wide range of different hypotheses concerning this linkage are tested, there is still negligible empirical support.

Analyzing Electoral History: A Guide to the Study of American Voter Behavior

Abstract: Since the late 1950s, interest has increased among historians, political scientists, and other social scientists in the systematic analysis of American Elections past and present.

Mass Attitudes on Political Issues in Britain

Abstract: Although there have been several studies of attitudinal constraint in the American public, similar studies for other political systems are rare. Using the October 1974 British Election Study, the a...

Determinants of Public Services Provision in Rural Communities: Evidence from Voting on Hospital Referenda

Abstract: There has been considerable recent research regarding the determinants of consumer demand for collectively provided goods, but relatively little of this research has focused on rural areas or issues that are particularly important to rural residents. In this paper, a public choice analytical framework is adopted to analyze voting behavior on rural hospital referenda. The results of the analysis aid in understanding support given by rural residents to low occupancy, rural hospitals and in predicting opposition to public sector efforts to close such facilities.

Do They Lie

Abstract: Attempts to ascertain respondents' attitudes and behavior in respect to sensitive subject matters through classical interviewing methods carry a significant risk of obtaining insincere responses. By employing three alternative types of interviewing methods, that is, regular interview, ballot-box, and the randomized response technique, one finds that past voting behavior, future voting intentions and attitudes toward issues which determine party affiliation are considered by many Israeli voters as sensitive, hence, they tend to lie about them when interviewed in a regular manner more often than when interviewed by either of the other two methods. It is also shown that the degree of dependence between the respondents' attitudes toward certain sensitive political issues and their voting behavior is stronger when interviewed in a less obtrusive manner, for example, by resorting to the ballot-box method.