Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1982"

Economic Self-Interest and Political Behavior

Abstract: The nature of the relationship between personal economic well-being and political behavior has been an object of much theory and research in the social sciences. A growing number of studies of survey data have concluded, however, that there is little or no relationship in the U.S. between financial well-being and political attitudes and behavior. This paper offers an explanation for these findings based on the way people perceive the nature of their financial well-being. The analysis shows that belief in economic individualism leads people to accept personal responsibility for their economic conditions, which in turn eliminates any connection between personal well-being and political evaluation. I discuss the role of political culture and belief in the assessment of "self-interest" and "rationality" in political behavior in light of these findings.

A General Equilibrium Model of Congressional Voting

Abstract: In this paper we specify a model in which Congressmen, constituents, and campaign contributors simultaneously decide on behavior. Constituents and contributors desire to influence the voting behavior of Congressmen; Congressmen, on the other hand, want to be elected and vote accordingly. We empirically test this model using roll call voting on eight bills dealing with economic regulation and find support for the model. Our results indicate that part of the voting behavior of Congressmen may be explained by noneconomic factors. We also find that unions and businesses as campaign contributors are sometimes influential; unions are more often influential than is business. Ideological factors are also important in explaining voting.

Strategies of political inquiry

Abstract: The essays in this volume, written by leading political scientists, express discontent with the prevailing basis of political studies. They find that the acceptance of a logical positivist view of what makes a valid theory has led to a concentration on questions of method. How to describe political relationships quantitatively, how to measure and compare patterns of policy and behaviour: these are the kind of topics that have concerned researchers not dedicated solely to qualitative methods. They are seeking, still, an empirical foundation for political science, clear cut and consistent patterns that are repeated often enough in the data to need theories to account for them.

Jumping on the Bandwagon with the Underdog: The Impact of Attitude Polls on Polling Behavior

Abstract: An experimental design was used to examine the effect which previous polling information about candidate preference had upon subsequent polling responses. Subjects were given one of three types of information (Carter commanding a lead, Reagan commanding a lead, no information about current poll results) at two different points in time. This yielded nine information conditions. The data clearly demonstrate that both strength of attitude and candidate preference are influenced by knowledge of previous polling results. The patterns of both shift in attitude and switching candidate preference are explained in terms of an oppositional reactivity hypothesis. Stephen J. Ceci is a psychologist and Edward L. Kain is a sociologist. Both are Assistant Professors in the Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. 14853. Portions of this report were underwritten by a grant from the College of Human Ecology to S. J. Ceci. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 46:228-242 ?) 1982 by The Trustees of Columbia University Published by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0033-362X/82/0046-228/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.93 on Wed, 13 Jul 2016 05:53:02 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms IMPACT OF ATTITUDE POLLS ON POLLING BEHAVIOR 229 possible that the absence of any bandwagon or underdog effects is a result of the fact that candidate preference grows more stable as election day approaches. Thus, these studies of bandwagon effects sampled voter opinions at a point in time when the impact of information such as televised election returns would be minimal (Mendelsohn and Crespi, 1970; Navazio, 1977). A further concern with these studies involves the response validity of self-reports of voting behavior. Although two of the studies examined precinct rosters to verify the self-reports of going to the voting booth (Fuchs, 1966, Mendelsohn, 1966) there was no way to validate the self-reports of candidate preference when those votes were cast. A long research tradition has examined response error in surveys of voting behavior (Clausen, 1968; Dinerman, 1948; Miller, 1952; Parry and Crossley, 1950; Traugott and Katosh, 1979). The recent research by Traugott and Katosh (1979) indicates that a fairly large number of respondents misreported their behavior in the 1976 CPS National Election Study. This error was large both in terms of reports of voter registration (15 percent) and reports of voting in the election (14 percent). The substantial majority of misreporting was in the direction of claiming to have voted or registered to vote when this was not, in fact, the case. It appears that some of this misreporting, therefore, was a result of feelings of pressure to give a socially appropriate response. Two further findings of the Traugott and Katosh research are important to note. The authors suggest that for those whose vote could not be verified, there was a distinct preference for Carter, indicating a small postelection bandwagon effect. Also of interest is the finding that being interviewed prior to the election is clearly linked to levels of voter participation. Further, this effect is cumulative, so that respondents who were interviewed in more than one wave of the election study had successively higher rates of validated voter participation (Traugott and Kotosh, 1979: 370-71). Navazio (1977) has suggested that research using an experimental design can help assess the impact of previous information upon polling responses. He used questionnaires including four opinion questions which were sent to both an experimental and control group. The experimental questionnaire differed only in the fact that the questions were preceded by the most recent national poll results on those questions. The response differences between the experimental and control groups did not indicate either an underdog or a bandwagon effect when examined as a whole. When occupational groups were compared, however, consistent differences appeared. The national poll results had been strongly negative in evaluating President Nixon. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.93 on Wed, 13 Jul 2016 05:53:02 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

Sexism, racism, and ageism in voting behavior: An experimental analysis.

Abstract: In order to assess the impact of candidate characteristics and candidate-voter similarity on voting preferences, descriptions of candidates were presented to 1,158 voters in a simulated mayoral election. Five experimental candidates-white female, black female, black male, young white male, and elderly white male-were pitted in two-candidate races against a middle-aged, white male opponent. Ageism in voting patterns was stronger overall than either sexism or racism. The hypothesis that similarity breeds attraction received strong support in the form of pro-female bias among women, pro-black bias among blacks, and pro-white male bias among white males.

Personalization in attributing responsibility for national problems to the president

Abstract: The studies reported test two hypotheses concerning the conditions under which citizens will attribute more of the responsibility for political events to the president. The first hypothesis, derived from Heider's theory of defensive attribution, is that citizens who feel more threatened by national political problems will judge the president to be more responsible for those problems. The second hypothesis is that those who lack knowledge about political events will attribute more of the responsibility for such events to the president as a cognitive simplifying strategy. These hypotheses were tested in three studies—two surveys on inflation and unemployment and an experiment on nuclear war. The results of all three studies support Heider's defensive attribution hypothesis. Each suggests that those more threatened by a national political problem will hold the president more responsible for that problem. The survey results also suggest that such attributions of responsibility have an influence upon voting behavior, with those who hold the incumbent responsible for national economic problems more likely to vote for the other presidential candidates. The results of the three studies are equally clear in the case of knowledge effects. In none of the studies do those who lack political knowledge attribute increased responsibility for national problems to the president. In addition, there is no evidence of an interaction between threat and knowledge. Instead, threat-induced increases in attributions of responsibility to the president are found to occur to an equal degree at all levels of political knowledge.

Governing: An Introduction to Political Science

Abstract: I. POLITICS, GOVERNMENTS, AND PEOPLE. 1. Politics in Human Life. 2. Governments and Governing. 3. Political Psychology, Socialization, and Culture. 4. Modern Political Ideologies. 5. Democracy and Authoritarianism: Principles and Models. II. POLITICS OUTSIDE FORMAL GOVERNMENTS. 6. Public Opinion in Democratic Systems. 7. Political Communication. 8. The Electoral Process. 9. Voting Behavior. 10. Political Parties and Party Systems. III. GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURES, AUTHORITIES, AND PROCESSES. 11. The Legislative Process. 12. The Executive Process. 13. The Administrative Process. 14. Law and the Judicial Process. IV. PUBLIC POLICIES AND THEIR IMPACTS. 15. Human Rights: Principles and Problems. 16. Human Rights: Challenges and Responses. V. THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SYSTEM. 17. Politics among Nations. 18. International Political Economy. 19. The Quest for Peace in the Thermonuclear Age. Index.

Can We Trust Recall‐Data?*

Abstract: About 15% of Norwegian voters report a different party than their actual choice when asked about voting at previous Storting elections. Even though this percentage is lower than in other countries, it nonetheless shows that recall-data do not give a correct picture of people's voting behavior. The political stability among voters is exaggerated. This will have consequences for the monthly political barometers on account of the weighing procedures used. This article discusses different explanations for erroneous recall; incorrect remembering on the one hand and a wish for consistent behavior on the other. The consistency model appears to be most relevant. In this connection the distinction between stable and unstable voters is important.

Political Parties and Political Participation: A Reexamination of the Standard Socioeconomic Model

Abstract: This paper examines conventional explanations as to why many lower status persons in the United States are less inclined than others to participate in politics. Such explanations typically treat lower status nonparticipation as the result of SES-related personality traits and therefore as an inevitable consequence of stratification. We present two lines of analysis. First, a review of comparative data suggests that such explanations ignore characteristics of U.S. political institutions-especially the programs and recruitment strategies employed by the major political parties-which are important sources of lower status political disinterest and nonparticipation. Second, in contrast to previous studies, we examine the effects of political party recruitment patterns on voting and campaign activity. Using the 1976 CPS election study, we find that: (1) voter contact by a political party or candidate increases the likelihood of voting and campaign activity, although it made no difference which party made the overture; (2) voter contact by the two major parties did not reduce the greater likelihood that high SES citizens would participate more in politics; and (3) the impact of contact was the same across social status and political party lines. The implications of these findings for theory and research on social class and political participation are discussed in the text.

From Simple Determinism to Interactive Models of Voting Britain as an Example

Abstract: The class-equals-party model of voting in Britain is inadequate as a simple deterministic model. But so too is the political socialization model. The most appropriate model for explaining individual voting in terms of survey data alone is a model that allows for the interaction of social structure, political socialization, and political attitudes. But it is also important to emphasize that a model of voting in terms of individual survey data alone is an inadequate model of electoral behavior. It ignores the importance of macroeconomic conditions that determine what is there for individual voters to perceive and, even more importantly, which parties present themselves for the voter to choose among. The point has always been important theoretically. The continuing and cumulative deterioration of the British economy and eruptions in the party system only make palpable what has always been contingently important.

Voting Power Indices and the Setting of Financial Accounting Standards: Extensions

Abstract: The allegations and conclusions of the Metcalf report (U.S. Senate [1977]) motivated attempts to explain or refute the notion that the setting of financial accounting standards is controlled by special interest groups (Haring [1979], Hussein and Ketz [1980], Patton [1980], and Newman [1981a; 1981b]). Given the assumptions of the voting model tested in each case, the results suggest no apparent control of the Financial Accounting Standards Board by the so-called accounting establishment"Big Eight" public accounting firms and their clients. Each of these studies examined the past voting behavior of accounting policy bodies and tested hypotheses regarding certain sorts of coalition formation, primarily coalitions of public accountants from Big Eight firms. Even though there was no evidence of control by the Big Eight, Newman [1981a] argued that the Big Eight still had the potential to control the FASB. His argument was supported by a priori calculations of real voting power indices of a possible bloc of FASB representatives drawn from these largest public accounting firms. Newman's calculations rest on three forms of critical assumptions underlying the application of a priori real voting power indices to actual voting situations. These assumptions affect the outcomes and the relevance of voting power indices for such analyses. The objectives of this

Economic Conditions and National Elections, Post-Sample Forecasts of the Kramer Equations

Abstract: There has long been a division of opinion among economists concerning the effects of economic developments on voting behavior. In his well-known study, Kramer (1971a) concluded that the fluctuations in economic activity have a systematic influence on U.S. congressional elections. His findings were challenged by various economists, including Stigler (1973).The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Kramer's results by examining the post-sample forecast performance of his models. As noted by Christ (1966, pp. 546–49), the acid test of a time series model is its ability to perform well outside the sample period. The results discussed below demonstrate that Kramer's equations have relatively good post-sample predictive ability. The findings thus support the view that short-term economic fluctuations have important effects on national elections. However, the results also suggest that economic factors alone are not sufficient to account for all variations of voter behavior.

Newspaper Endorsements and Voter Behavior in the 1980 Presidential Election

Abstract: Newspaper editors and researchers seem uncertain about the effect of political endorsements, especially the endorsements published during presidential elections. Classic election studies conducted during the 1940s revealed that voters are more likely to be influenced by personal factors (by their party affiliations, families and friends, for example) than by the media. Later studies found that the political endorsements published by daily newspapers are more likely to affect the voters in local than in state and national elections. Researchers explained that voters receive more information about the candidates in state and national elections and consequently are less dependent upon the media's recommendations. Two recent studies have challenged some of those earlier findings and demonstrated a need for more research. Both studies have found that political endorsements may have a greater impact than previously imagined, especially in state and national elections. The issue is of great concern to newspaper editors. A growing percentage of the nation's daily newspapers remain uncommitted during political campaigns, and many editors explain they have stopped publishing endorsements because they believe endorsements are ineffective.' Typically, an editor interviewed after the 1980 presidential election declared, \"I've never seen a voter carry a copy of my editorial with him into a voting booth.\"^ On the other hand, many editors who endorsed a candidate in the 1980 presidential election later insisted that their endorsement helped the candidate win. Other editors who continue to publish political endorsements say that newspapers

Oil and Ideology in the United States Senate

Abstract: A study of recent Senate votes indicates that post-embargo regulation of the petroleum industry has been explicitly designed, at the expense of efficient resource allocation, as a mechanism for the redistribution of wealth from crude-oil producers to crude-oil refiners and refined-petroleum-product consumers Senate voting behavior is significantly related to the wealth interests of these constituencies, and the policymaking process has been somewhat captured by private-interest groups These results tend to support the view that the domestic energy crisis is over wealth distribution and not over market crisis or institutional failure It is also found that some form of ideological public-interest behavior related to questions of fairness, freedom from intervention, and other values has also played an important role in Senate voting and policy formation 24 references, 4 tables

Evaluating Political Goods and Productivity

Abstract: Because political evaluation is both inescapable and desirable, it is too important to be left to partial and unexamined criteria. Even the most self-conscious studies of political performance have tended to rely on a limited and incomplete range of standards. We are arguing here for a more comprehensive typology of "political goods," with which both the standards and the performance of specific regimes and ideologies can be compared. Although we cannot, of course, deal with every cultural and structural nuance that may itself be valued, we can attempt to consider explicitly classes of goods that are associated with each of the different levels of analysis of the political system.

Stratification and Voting Behavior Electoral Cleavage in Britain under the Third Reform Act

Abstract: Despite agreement on the importance of class in voting behavior, scholars have not integrated research on class-based political behavior with broader theories about the sources of group cohesion in a mass electorate. This article explores the potential for political cohesion among a variety of occupational groups within the British working class. The propensity for collective action in the electoral arena is evaluated in terms of each group's social situation—its differentiation, level of within-group interaction, need for collective effort, and organizational capacity. Using the 1891 population census and general election results from 1885 to 1910, we then observe the relationship between the spatial concentration of each occupational group and the left-wing vote. The results indicate clearly that alternate conceptions of stratification are associated with different directions of class-party relationships and different levels of class-based voting. The results of both correlation and multivariate regress...

If at First You Don't Succeed: Budgeting by a Sequence of Referenda

Abstract: An econometric model, based on the Romer-Rosenthal model of agenda control by budget-maximizing bureaucracies is used to analyze the budgetary and voting outcomes of referenda in a cross-section of Oregon school districts. In addition to estimates of the effects of agenda control, the model permits estimation of the spending effects of voter failure to perceive the .availability of lump-sum intergovernmental grants. Budgets are set via referenda. In the event of a failed referendum, a limited number of additional votes may be taken. The model permits estimation of the degree to which the agenda setter (e.g., the school superintendent) learns about voter preferences from the outcomes of failed referenda. The endogenous variables in the model are the budget proposals and voting outcomes of each referendum in the sequence of referenda held in each school district. The effects of proposals on voting behavior and the effects of learning appear via structural parameters in the error structure. The model is estimated by non-linear maximum likelihood. The results (1) support the theoretical model of agenda control and the effect of the setter's proposals on voting behavior; (2) indicate that voter failure to perceive state grants leads to important increases in spending; (3) fail to indicate any learning by the setter.

The effect of the pro‐ and anti‐ERA campaign contributions on the ERA voting behavior of the 80th Illinois house of representatives

Abstract: This study provides evidence that campaign Financing has contributed to the defeat of the equal rights amendment (ERA) in Illinois. It is not the primary factor, but it is an important one. Since 1972 eleven votes have been taken on the ERA in the Illinois House and seven votes in the Senate. Also, since 1976, Illinois has required that the campaign finances of the candidates for state office be made public, both these developments provided a unique opportunity to study the effect over time of campaign contributions on the voting behavior of legislators with regard to a single “ideological” issue. The study focuses on the 80th House of Representatives. Six of the eleven House votes on the ERA were taken in its two sessions, two in 1977, and four in 1978. The law‐makers fell into two important categories: consistent voters on this issue, and inconsistent ones. Using a multivariate analysis technique it was found that campaign donations considerably influenced the ERA positions of the inconsistent ...

Influence of Significant Others' Perceived Voting Behaviors on Children's Political Socialization:

Abstract: This study investigated the relative influence of parents, peers, and teachers on children's voting behavior. 66 children in grades 3, 4, and 5 were interviewed about their voting preferences and p...

Voting Patterns, Social Context, and Religious Affiliation in Southwest Germany

Abstract: In elections that offer genuine choices the individual eligible voter is confronted with having to make decisions. But such decisions are rarely based on a dispassionate weighing of all relevant issues and circumstances; on the contrary, most decisions result largely from the socioeconomic and cultural influences of the milieu in which the individual moves, and most people are content to vote with those of their fellow citizens with whom they share basic social and ideational orientations ( cf. Jaros and Grant 1974:177; Parsons 1967:239). So far, the most reliable predictors of voting behavior appear to be structural factors such as group affiliation and its concomitant sharing of values and, although there is no compelling need to restrict explanations of voting behavior to factors of group affiliation and social structure (Iwand 1972:14), attempts to broaden the base underlying voting theory by including psychological processes seem to suffer from fundamental inconsistencies (Abrams 1973:47). It need hardly be mentioned that even at the “safer” level of social processes, any study that hopes to explain voting behavior must deal with a number of methodological problems such as the reliability of questionnaire and interview responses, or the choice of an optimum aggregate level for most fruitful analysis of election returns (see, for example, Feist 1976; Hartenstein 1976).

Mobile home residency and participation: Sociopolitical effects of a popular housing alternative

Abstract: Mobile home residency is becoming a popular alternative to conventional housing, yet relatively little research has been generated which assesses the sociopolitical effects of this housing type. This study tests the traditional conception of mobile home dwellers as isolated transients with data collected in 1977 from five counties in North Carolina (N=844). Our findings indicate that mobile home dwellers are more integrated into the social system than previously believed. While nonmobile home owners tend to participate more in local civic activities than do mobile home owners, their membership in voluntary associations and voting behavior is not substantially different Explanations and the implications of these findings are offered.

An Elite View of the Polls

Abstract: This research note examines the views of election polls of a sample of political activists: delegates elected to the 1980 state conventions of the Oklahoma Democratic and Republican parties. Findings show that although just 13 percent of the delegates overall place high levels of trust in the results of major national polls, nearly a majority (45 percent) feel that poll results affect voter behavior. Both trust in election polls and perception of their impact on voters are found to increase with involvement or interest in electoral politics. Jeffrey L. Brudney is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma. This research note is a revised version of a paper prepared for delivery at the 1981 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Jean McDonald collaborated in the collection of data upon which the study is based. Robert Weissberg and Robert Meadow contributed valuable insight to the revision. While their contributions are gratefully acknowledged, the author bears sole responsibility for the contents. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 46:503-509 ? 1982 by the Trustees of Columbia University Published by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0033-362X/82/0046-503/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.129 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 04:04:09 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 504 JEFFREY L. BRUDNEY

Congressional Cohorts and Voting Patterns

Abstract: Voting behavior on selected issues during the 90th and 95th sessions of Congress is used to determine whether important generational differences altered congressional behavior during the 1970s. Voting differences between newer and older members are examined on issues concerning social welfare, government management, foreign policy, civil liberties and rights, and public interest issues such as environmentalism and consumerism. Some seniority-related differences were expressed in the 90th and 95th sessions. While the younger members of Congress are more likely to reflect the temper of the times, the longer Democrats are in Congress, the more conservative they become.