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Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1986"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Mahajan et al. as mentioned in this paper examined gender differences in policy choices and how they have changed from the 1960s to the 1980s using 267 repeated policy questions (962 time points) and found that the saliency of issues has increased greatly for women, and as a result differences in preferences have increased in ways consistent with the interests of women and the intentions of the women's movement.
Abstract: Using 267 repeated policy questions (962 time points), we examine gender differences in policy choices and how they have changed from the 1960s to the 1980s. The average gender difference in preferences toward policies involving the use of force have consistently been moderately large. Sex differences in opinion toward other policies-regulation and public protection, "compassion" issues, traditional valueshave been approximately half as large but they also warrant more attention than in the past. Our analysis suggests that the salience of issues has increased greatly for women, and as a result differences in preferences have increased in ways consistent with the interests of women and the intentions of the women's movement. Robert Y. Shapiro is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a Research Associate at NORC, University of Chicago. Harpreet Mahajan is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at Columbia University. The authors owe special thanks to Kurt Veith for his collaboration in some of the research reported here. They are also grateful to Ethel Klein, Eleanor Singer, Ester Fuchs, Eric Smith, Tom Smith, Chaim Eyal, Benjamin Page, Garth Taylor, and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. The survey data and tabulations were obtained from the files of the Policy Change and Public Opinion Change project at NORC, which was originally supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-7912969. Support for the research reported here was provided by the Columbia Council for Research in the Social Sciences; the responsibility for analysis and interpretation is the authors'. An earlier version of this article was presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Association for Public Opinion Research, Chicago, Illinois. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol 50 42-61 ?9 1986 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 0033-362X/86/0050-42/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.35 on Fri, 02 Sep 2016 05:08:59 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms TRENDS IN GENDER DIFFERENCES IN POLICY PREFERENCES 43 Significant changes, however, occurred. Not only were women less supportive than men of President Reagan but they had become less likely to consider themselves Republicans (e.g., Clymer, 1983; Schneider, 1984; Frankovic, 1982), and they had become more active politically than in the past and voted in greater numbers (see Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980; Verba and Nie, 1972; Welch, 1977; Klein, 1984; Andersen, 1975; Rapoport, 1981). Despite premature reports in November 1984 of a decrease in the gender gap since 1980, the evidence indicates that the sex difference in President Reagan's support was about the same in both elections and that the gender gap may have affected the outcomes of races for other offices (see Opinion Roundup, 1985:28-29; Klein, 1985; Keeter, 1985). Less attention has been paid to gender differences in policy preferences than to voting. Public opinion surveys usually revealed no appreciable differences in choices for government policies, and these seemingly inconsequential findings were not extensively reported and summarized. They were mentioned, however, in voting and public opinion studies (Erikson et al., 1980:186; Monroe, 1975:96; Pomper, 1975; Campbell et al., 1960; Berelson et al., 1954), and breakdowns of responses by sex were often (and are still) routinely reported with survey results and in special compilations, such as those prepared for Public Opinion Quarterly (e.g., "The Polls" and the earlier "Quarterly Polls"; see also Cantril with Strunk, 1951). Not surprisingly, there has been increasing interest in these differences in policy preferences because of their potential electoral importance.1 Moreover, although some policy issues may be electorally more important than others, any changes that occur in the aggregate distributions of public preferences may ultimately influence the political 1 For example, Frankovic (1982) showed that women's lower level of support for Reagan could be explained by their greater opposition than men to belligerent positions on war and peace issues, arms control, and the uses of force in foreign policy. This assumes, of course, that these issues and any others were equally important influences on voting decisions for men and women. But this need not have been the case. Klein (1984) showed that some policy preferences for which there were no significant sex differences had different effects on candidate choices. Most notably, men and women had similar opinions toward the ERA and other policies pertaining to women's rights, but over time women appeared to be more likely to take these issues into account in voting. Thus the political importance of policy choices may go beyond the differences and similarities in the positions held by different people. On the other hand, such differences are most likely to occur on salient and important issues, and we would expect larger differences to produce larger effects. Moreover, it is also much more difficult for candidates and policy makers to determine the relative importance of different issues for different groups, everything else being equal (i.e., positions on other issues, partisanship; see Klein, 1984; Shabad and Andersen, 1979), than it is to judge simply the extent of differences in preferences. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.35 on Fri, 02 Sep 2016 05:08:59 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 44 ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO AND HARPREET MAHAJAN agenda and the direction of public policy (see Monroe, 1979; Page and Shapiro, 1983). These opinions, to be sure, are not autonomous but may be shaped by events and objective conditions, and by processes of education, leadership, or manipulation (cf. Page and Shapiro, 1982, 1984). Gender and other differences may be important because some groups may be more politically powerful than others or their preferences may be the driving force behind changes in mass opinion. Gender differences may take on additional significance because of women's rising levels of political participation (and women simply constituting a large pool of eligible voters) and because of the greater attention they may pay to particular issues and government policies. As a result, even small sex differences in policy choices may no longer be inconsequential, especially if they occur across a wide array of issues around which coalitions can form. What do we know about these gender differences? What differences have there been and what changes, if any, have occurred? We will briefly summarize the findings of past studies and then build upon them with an analysis of a larger set of additional data.

619 citations


Book
01 Jan 1986
TL;DR: In this paper, W. Russell Neuman analyzes the major election surveys in the United States for the period 1948 1980 and develops for each a central index of political sophistication based on measures of political interest, knowledge, and style of political conceptualization.
Abstract: A central current in the history of democratic politics is the tensions between the political culture of an informed citizenry and the potentially antidemocratic impulses of the larger mass of individuals who are only marginally involved in the political world. Given the public s low level of political interest and knowledge, it is paradoxical that the democratic system works at all.In "The Paradox of Mass Politics" W. Russell Neuman analyzes the major election surveys in the United States for the period 1948 1980 and develops for each a central index of political sophistication based on measures of political interest, knowledge, and style of political conceptualization. Taking a fresh look at the dramatic findings of public apathy and ignorance, he probes the process by which citizens acquire political knowledge and the impact of their knowledge on voting behavior.The book challenges the commonly held view that politically oriented college-educated individuals have a sophisticated grasp of the fundamental political issues of the day and do not rely heavily on vague political symbolism and party identification in their electoral calculus. In their expression of political opinions and in the stability and coherence of those opinions over time, the more knowledgeable half of the population, Neuman concludes, is almost indistinguishable from the other half. This is, in effect, a second paradox closely related to the first.In an attempt to resolve a major and persisting paradox of political theory, Neuman develops a model of three publics, which more accurately portrays the distribution of political knowledge and behavior in the mass population. He identifies a stratum of apoliticals, a large middle mass, and a politically sophisticated elite. The elite is so small (less than 5 percent) that the beliefs and behavior of its member are lost in the large random samples of national election surveys, but so active and articulate that its views are often equated with public opinion at large by the powers in Washington. The key to the paradox of mass politics is the activity of this tiny stratum of persons who follow political issues with care and expertise. This book is essential reading for concerned students of American politics, sociology, public opinion, and mass communication."

419 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, it was shown that the uncovered set contains the outcomes that would arise from equilibrium behavior under three different institutional settings: two-candidate competition, cooperative behavior in small committees, and sophisticated voting behavior in a legislative environment where the agenda is determined endogenously.
Abstract: This paper shows that different institutional structures for aggregation of preferences under majority rule may generate social choices that are quite similar, so that the actual social choice may be rather insensitive to the choice of institutional rules. Specifically, in a multidimensional setting, where all voters have strictly quasi-concave preferences, it is shown that the "uncovered set" contains the outcomes that would arise from equilibrium behavior under three different institutional settings. The three institutional settings are two-candidate competition in a large electorate, cooperative behavior in small committees, and sophisticated voting behavior in a legislative environment where the agenda is determined endogenously. Because of its apparent institution-free properties, the uncovered set may provide a useful generalization of the core when a core does not exist. A general existence theorem for the uncovered set is proven, and for the Downsian case, bounds for the uncovered set are computed. These bounds show that the uncovered set is centered around a generalized median set whose size is a measure of the degree of symmetry of the voter ideal points.

413 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple model of survey responses for issue placement questions is proposed to estimate respondents' uncertainty indirectly from existing National Election Study (NES) data, and the model shows that uncertainty about candidates' issue positions appears to be sufficiently pervasive and important to rival issue distances as a determinant of electoral choices.
Abstract: Enelow and Hinich (1981) proposed a simple model of issue voting for the case in which voters are uncertain about candidates' issue positions. This paper adds an equally simple model of survey responses for issue placement questions that makes it possible to estimate respondents' uncertainty indirectly from existing National Election Study (NES) data. An empirical test of Enelow and Hinich's model based on voting behavior in the 1980 presidential election indicates that voters dislike uncertainty, as suggested by the model. Indeed, uncertainty about candidates' issue positions appears to have been sufficiently pervasive and important to rival issue distances as a determinant of electoral choices.

286 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Gill et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the indirect relationship between ecological concern and voting behavior and found that the effects of ecological concern are mediated by attitudinal, normative, and behavioral intention variables.
Abstract: Using a theoretical framework not previously tested in environmental research, this study investigates the indirect relationship between ecological concern and voting behavior. Results indicate that the effects of ecological concern are mediated by attitudinal, normative, and behavioral intention variables. The results also provide a partial test of the validity of Ajzen and Fishbein's Theory of Reasoned Action. Key environmental, public policy, and communications implications are discussed. James D. Gill is Assistant Professor of Marketing and Lawrence A. Crosby is Associate Professor of Marketing, in the College of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287. James R. Taylor is the S.S. Kresge Professor of Marketing, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support provided by the College of Business, Arizona State University and by S.S. Kresge Research Funds. The authors also wish to thank an anonymous reviewer for technical contributions made to the manuscript. uiblic Opinion Quarterly Vol. 50:537-554 ? 1986 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 0033-362X/86/0050-537/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.27 on Wed, 07 Sep 2016 04:25:40 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 538 JAMES D. GILL, LAWRENCE A. CROSBY, AND JAMES R. TAYLOR First, there have been numerous attempts to determine the antecedents of ecological concern, especially as they relate to the bases of market segmentation (e.g., Crosby and Gill, 1981; Murphy, 1978; Brooker, 1976; Henion and Wilson, 1976; Webster, 1975; Kinnear et al., 1974). Second, efforts have been made to develop or improve ecological concern measures (e.g., Antil and Bennett, 1979; Henion, 1976; Kinnear and Taylor, 1973). Third, several assessments of the impact of ecological concern on consumption and voting behavior have been conducted (Crosby and Taylor, 1982, 1983; Crosby et al., 1981; Lepisto, 1979; Henion, 1976; Kinnear and Taylor, 1973; Herberger and Buchanan, 1971; Kassarjian, 1971). Generally, the research indicates that ecological concern is related to, but is not highly correlated with, consumption behavior. Although often a good explanatory variable of group (market segment) behavior, prediction at the individual level proves difficult. This conclusion parallels that of social and behavioral scientists who have expressed reservations about the value of attitude data in environmental research (e.g., Endo and Nielsen, 1974). The weak relationship between ecological concern and behavior may mean that it is not an important explanatory variable. A more interesting possibility, however, is that ecological concern has an indirect rather than direct influence on behavior, with its influence being gradually diminished through successive levels of intervening variables. This view is consistent with Dunlap (1975) and Mazmanian and Sabatier (1981), who argue that a person's willingness to act upon his environmental attitude is subject to certain mediating influences (e.g., environmental issue salience, situational circumstances, individual differences). The researcher's theoretical perspective, of course, determines the hypothesized intervening variables and their relationships. Van Liere and Dunlap (1982) state that "since progress toward the solution of environmental problems is likely to depend more on proenvironmental behaviors than proenvironmental attitudes, the reasons for the weak relationship between environmental attitudes and behaviors and the conditions under which it can be strengthened clearly deserve examination."

168 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wirls et al. as discussed by the authors argue that the gender gap is the result of unequal rates of defection by men and women away from liberal values and the Democratic party. But they do not consider the role of women in the political process.
Abstract: This study offers an analysis of the recent political differences between women and men that contradicts the conventional description of the "gender gap" in American politics. Beginning with the 1980 elections, the differences between women and men in their opinions on political issues, in voting behavior, and in partisan identification frequently have been portrayed as a result of women's rejection of Reagan and of Republicans and conservative values and their attraction to more liberal political positions and to the Democratic party. This description is misleading and cannot explain the full spectrum of political behavior by the sexes in the 1980s. This analysis argues that the gender gap has been the result of unequal rates of defection by men and women away from liberal values and the Democratic party. Greater movement by men toward conservative positions and the Republican party produced the gender gap. Consequently, the Republicans were never the potential victims but have always been the potential and actual beneficiaries of the gender gap. Daniel Wirls is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Government, Cornell University. The author wishes to thank Benjamin Ginsberg, whose insight and encouragement initiated this study and improved it throughout the project's duration. Kathleen Frankovic graciously provided CBS News polling data. Martin Shefter, Alice Talbot, and the anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments and criticisms that improved the substance and presentation of the argument. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 50:316-330 ? 1986 by the Amencan Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 0033-362X/86/0050-316/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.127 on Sun, 26 Jun 2016 05:56:11 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms REINTERPRETING THE GENDER GAP 317 ing negatively to Reagan, Republicans, and revitalized conservatism.' According to this predominant view, the gender gap spelled trouble for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and signaled the potential coalescence of a women's voting bloc as a key constituent of a new Democratic coalition for the 1980s. This interpretation was the decisive factor behind the nomination of Geraldine Ferraro as the Democratic vicepresidential nominee. In 1984, however, the gender gap did not live up to its putative potential. The difference between the electoral choices of women and men narrowed; had only women voted, Reagan still would have won a landslide victory. Despite the unexpected results in 1984, the conventional interpretation has gone largely unquestioned, though references to the gender gap have become fewer and muted. What explains this contrast between the expectations generated by the popular interpretation of the gender gap in the early 1980s and the reality of 1984? Proponents of the conventional argument often drew conclusions about the dynamics and future of sex-linked political differences from static measurements of opinion and voting, which showed women to be more liberal or Democratic than men at discrete points in time over the last several years. The history of the gender gap demonstrates the danger of projections based on static data and a conceptual focus on women as the relevant political actors. Longitudinal analysis of the direction of political motion by both women and men produces a much different portrait of the meaning and significance of the gender gap. This study argues that the gender gap resulted from a general movement by the electorate toward Reagan, the Republicans, and more conservative values. While both men and women have been defecting from the Democratic party and moving away from liberal values, rates of defection among men have been greater than rates among women. Hence the gender gap. Rather than reflecting an increase in Democratic and liberal sentiments among women, the gender gap resulted from more rapid and widespread movement among men than women to conservative values and the Republican party. Consequently, Reagan and the Republicans were never the potential victims, but the potential and actual beneficiaries of the gender gap in 1984. 1 For example, Lou Harris said that "consistently, women are voting more Democratic than Republican, but most particularly, are inclined to vote against Ronald Reagan in his bid for reelection" (Ms., July 1984:53). Reagan's chief political advisor during the campaign of 1984, Ed Rollins, warned that the gender gap could "lock" the Republicans "into the status of a minority party," and that it threatened the chances for Reagan's reelection (Washington Post, June 6, 1983). For the perspective of the women's movement see Abzug (1984) and Smeal (1984). This content downloaded from 157.55.39.127 on Sun, 26 Jun 2016 05:56:11 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

145 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined a measure that does not suffer from this problem, which is the proportion of actual nonvoters who claim that they did not vote, taking into account the fact that virtually all respondents who misreport whether they voted are actually non-voters.
Abstract: External validity checks of vote self-reports are of particular interest to political scientists. However, most validity checks have used statistics that poorly reflect the behavior they are trying to verify. Earlier researchers have used two measures of the level of agreement between self-reported and validated vote: (1) the proportion of those who claim to have voted who, according to the vote validation, actually did not vote; and (2) the proportion of all respondents who misreported their voting behavior. These measures are substantially affected by the marginal distribution of actual voters and nonvoters in the survey. The measures often will be misleading indicators not only of the propensity of respondents in a given survey to overreport voting but also of differences in this propensity among subgroups of the electorate or across different elections. We examine a measure that does not suffer from this problem. This measure reflects the propensity among members of the appropriate "population at risk" to overreport voting; it is the proportion of actual nonvoters who claim that they voted. This measure takes into account the fact that virtually all respondents who misreport whether they voted are actually nonvoters. The substantive interpretation can be greatly affected by the measure used. An analysis of SRC 1980 National Election Study data shows that with the new measure, the relation of education to vote misreporting is very different than that shown by the other two measures. Also, contrary to previous research, blacks are only slightly more likely to misreport voting than whites.

120 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors develop a theory of the incentives facing political and partly political organizations, drawing particularly upon the concepts of encom passing and of narrow coalitions for collective action, and on the analysis of bargaining in bilateral monopolies.
Abstract: There is a widespread (and, in the literature of neo-corporatism, a particularly urgent) need for a theory of the incentives facing political and partly political organizations. This article develops such a theory, drawing particularly upon the concepts of encom passing and of narrow coalitions for collective action, and on the analysis of bargaining in bilateral monopolies. Unified political parties in political systems with some "winner- take-all" characteristics are found likely to have an encompassing character, and therefore to have some incentive to act broadly in accordance with one general conception or another of the social interest. Hegemonic powers in an international system also have relatively constructive incentives. Narrow distributional coalitions will, by contrast, face uniquely perverse incentives. With the aid of this theory of the incentives facing political organizations neo-corporatism can be raised to the theoretical level and shown to have some potential for reducing the social cos...

117 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the association between newscasters' facial expressions and the voting behavior of viewers and found that voters who regularly watched the newscaster who exhibited the biased facial expressions were significantly more likely to vote for the candidate that newscast had smiled upon.
Abstract: Two studies were conducted to examine the association between newscasters' facial expressions and the voting behavior of viewers. Study 1 examined the facial expressions exhibited by network newscasters while referring to the 1984 presidential candidates prior to the election. Results indicated that one of the three newscasters exhibited significantly more positive facial expressions when referring to Reagan than when referring to Mondale. Study 2 consisted of a telephone survey conducted to determine whether voting behavior was associated with the nightly news program watched. It was found that voters who regularly watched the newscaster who exhibited the biased facial expressions were significantly more likely to vote for the candidate that newscaster had smiled upon. Discussion considered possible explanations for, and implications of, this association between biases in newscasters' facial expressions and viewers' voting behavior.

81 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper used the 1978 and 1980 vote validation studies conducted by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center to test the extent to which false claims about voting are affected by the presence of third parties during the interview.
Abstract: This study uses the 1978 and 1980 vote validation studies conducted by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center to test the extent to which false claims about voting are affected by the presence of third parties during the interview. The presence of third parties during interviews is far more frequent than is commonly as- sumed. But the tendency of respondents to give socially approved answers is not af- fected by the presence of others during the interview. Thus, additional efforts to avoid contamination of interviews by eliminating third parties are not likely to reduce the exaggeration of self-reported vote. The analysis suggests that the declared intention to vote is a far more important factor in whether people falsely report voting than is the presence of others. Additional effort to understand the motivational basis of voting and nonvoting could help to account for variation in voting overreports.

71 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the progress of political science is reconceptualized as an increasing capacity to cope with contingency in its empirical problems and the rationality of any choice among research traditions is therefore historically contingent.
Abstract: Scientific progress is normally portrayed as a series of stable, rational choices between competing theories, research programs, or research traditions within a discipline. Progress of that sort cannot occur in political science because any comparisons among research traditions can only proceed in the context of a set of empirical problems which are socially determined. Political scientists have a say in this determination--but so does the larger society in which political science is embedded. The rationality of any choice among research traditions is therefore historically contingent. The progress of political science may be reconceptualized as an increasing capacity to cope with contingency in its empirical problems.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that delegates who owned slaves or represented slaveowning constituents were more likely to oppose issues favoring a national form of government in the U.S. Constitution.
Abstract: Despite hundreds of studies of the influence of economic interests on the formation of the U.S. Constitution, no consensus has been reached. Our study of the Constitutional Convention differs from previous ones by offering an explicit theoretical model of delegates' voting behavior and employing multivariate statistical techniques. We extend our earlier work by analyzing new information on constituents' economic interests and ideology. Further our econometric results on individual roll-call votes strongly suggest delegates who owned slaves or represented slaveowning constituents were more likely to oppose issues favoring a national form of government.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of disgruntlement among those primary voters who supported U.S. presidential candidates who lost the election has been analyzed in the last five presidential elections in order to determine if differences exist between those supporters of the winning candidate in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the effect of disgruntlement among those primary voters who supported U.S. presidential nomination losers. It analyzes the general election voting behavior of primary voters in the last five presidential elections in order to determine if differences exist between those supporters of the winning nominee in each party and backers of other candidates who also sought the nomination. A multivariate analysis of the determinants of voter turnout shows significant results only for the Democrats in 1972, when primary voters who supported candidates other than George McGovern were more likely to abstain in the general election. Taking into account the option of defecting to another party in November, both parties appear to have been plagued by a considerable amount of disloyalty on the part of supporters of candidates who failed to win the nomination, although for the Republicans this type of response is confined to the 1980 election. The existence of a third party or independent candidacy may be an important variable influencing the behavior of these disgruntled primary voters.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The carryover hypothesis as mentioned in this paper asserts that participants' candidate support behavior in the general election is affected by their preferences for their party's nomination, and that there is a detectable carryover effect on voting behavior both for activists and for citizens generally.
Abstract: The carryover hypothesis asserts that participants' candidate support behavior in the general election is affected by their preferences for their party's nomination. This paper examines data from activist and national sample surveys for evidence of a carryover effect in the 1980 election. There is a detectable carryover effect on voting behavior both for activists and for citizens generally. Among activists, where evidence about candidate support behaviors beyond voting is available, the effect on such activity is substantial, and increases with the effort associated with the general election activity in question.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors discusses a variety of factors that need to be considered in assessing political feasibility and outlines a general way to undertake such efforts, and argues that political scientists should be particularly mindful of its importance in improving public policy.
Abstract: Political feasibility analysis examines the actors and events involved in each stage of a political policy-making process and anticipates the likely resolution of a policy problem as it works its way through the policy process. Despite the prominence of policy analysis in the social sciences over the past decade or so, there has been virtually no scholarly work concerning the analysis of the political feasibility of policy proposals. Political scientists, because of their central concern with the design and effect of the policy-making process, have a unique responsibility to contribute a way to evaluate systematically political feasibility. While all policy analysts, regardless of their disciplinary backgrounds, need to be concerned with assessing political feasibility, political scientists should be particularly mindful of its importance in improving public policy. While anticipating the likely outcome of a dynamic policy process is necessarily a difficult task, an analysis of the political feasibility of a proposed alternative can provide insight into the nature of the policy process as well as identify the criteria that must be met for an alternative to be successful. This article discusses a variety of factors that need to be considered in assessing political feasibility. After arguing the need to design political feasibility analysis frameworks, this essay reviews political scientists' current treatment of political feasibility analysis and outlines a general way to undertake such efforts.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the role of floor voting from the standpoint of legislator organization and control, and examine the timing, sequence, and outcomes of such votes in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Abstract: In representative democracies, such as the United States, legislatures provide the transmission mechanism through which pressure from private interests becomes public policy. Considerable attention has been given in the literature to explanations of the relevant forces that appear to be driving the legislative process. For example, much research has focused on the relative impact of economic vs. ideological influences on congressional voting behavior. In this approach, the way that legislators vote on proposed legislation is modeled as a function of the preferences of various economic and ideological interests groups, including the legislator's own preferences for wealth and ideology (James Kau and Paul Rubin, 1979; Joseph Kalt and Mark Zupan, 1984; Sam Peltzman, 1985). Missing from this approach is the idea that when legislatures are the transmission mechanism, they are costly and imperfect organizations for generating political influence (Gary Becker, 1983). As such, rules and institutions will emerge that are related to problems of internal control within the organization of a legislature. In this paper, we focus on the role of floor voting from the standpoint of legislator organization and control. We seek to expand the interpretation of the meaning of floor voting activity by examining the timing, sequence, and outcomes of such votes. Specifically, we look at final floor voting in the U.S. Congress. The patterns described in the analysis below suggest that a broader analytical perspective on the economic function of floor voting is required. The findings also suggest that to identify more precisely the forces that are driving legislator voting behavior, it is important to recognize the role of legislative transactional costs and institutional constraints. In Section I, the conceptual framework for the empirical results is discussed in more detail. The purpose is not to develop a fullblown theory of legislative organization, rather, it is to focus the reader's attention on several hypotheses about the function of final floor voting as a device for controlling legislator behavior within the legislature. Empirical results, including an explanation of the timing and sequence of final votes on bills, are reported in Section II. The data for these tests are drawn from legislative activities in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 96th and 98th Congresses. Some concluding remarks are offered in Section III.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined the effect of economic performance on incumbency voting in Canadian federal elections from 1930 to 1979, using aggregate economic and electoral data, and compared the sensitivity of the Canadian and American electorates to interelection economic conditions.
Abstract: The theory that voters hold government responsible for economic conditions has contributed to a more comprehensive explanation of electoral behavior in a number of countries,' although in American studies aggregate analysis has tended to produce stronger support for the theory than does survey research.2 In Canada aggregate analysis of the effect of economic performance on voting behavior has not previously been attempted, while election survey analyses have tended to report null or weak net effects for this relationship on party vote shares.3 This study examines the effect of economic performance on incumbency voting in Canadian federal elections from 1930 to 1979, using aggregate economic and electoral data. In addition, the sensitivity of the Canadian and American electorates to interelection economic conditions is compared.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive model of union voting behavior should account for the reasons why employees vote for unions and also why they vote against unions in both certification and decertification elections.
Abstract: Models of voting behavior in union representation elections have largely been concerned with the relationship between work dissatisfaction and pro-union voting and post-hoc analyses of election outcomes. A comprehensive model of union voting behavior should account for the reasons why employees vote for unions and also why they vote against unions in both certification and decertification elections. A model is developed which incorporates some variables not previously given prominence in the literature and some testable propositions are derived.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The democratic-class-struggle thesis constitutes a seriously flawed interpretation of elections as mentioned in this paper, since it assumes that the typical form of political competition follows the responsible-parties model, which implies, among other things, that parties are fundamentally programmatic, adopting distinctive positions along a left-right continuum.
Abstract: It is commonly believed that elections in the industrial democracies reflect a democratic class struggle, according to which lower-income voters support parties of the Left while higher-income voters protect their interest by voting for parties of the Right. This interpretation hinges critically on a series of implicit assumptions. First, the class-struggle thesis assumes that most industrial democracies have majoritarian political institutions. Second, it assumes that the typical form of political competition follows the responsible-parties model, which implies, among other things, that parties are fundamentally programmatic, adopting distinctive positions along a left-right continuum. When these assumptions are evaluated in light of the available evidence on the nature of party systems, political competition, and voting behavior, they are judged to be largely implausible. Thus, the democratic-class-struggle thesis constitutes a seriously flawed interpretation of elections.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a rational choice model is developed that claims that citizens weigh the costs and benefits of alternative paths of political action before deciding on a particular mode of participation, such evaluations can be tapped by making a distinction between institutional and mobilization efficacy.
Abstract: This article presents and tests a theoretical model to explain the attitudinal origins of political action. Consistent with recent work in political science and social psychology, a rational choice model is developed that claims that citizens weigh the costs and benefits of alternative paths of political action before deciding on a particular mode of participation. Such evaluations can be tapped by making a distinction between institutional and mobilization efficacy. Whereas institutional efficacy centers on beliefs about the utility of actions that are organized by the political system itself (e.g., campaigning), mobilization efficacy is concerned with subjective evaluations about direct action techniques (e.g., demonstrations). The model is tested using data that was collected in eight countries for an earlier study: Political Action. It is suggested that the model should resolve some of the inconsistencies that emerged in that research. The subjects in eight countries were divided into four action grou...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined an important attitudinal question which appears in each national election study: the time at which the respondent recalls making a final presidential vote choice, and found that only forty percent of the sample reflect consistent responses on the two measures.
Abstract: Accuracy of respondent recall has long been a concern in political science research. Earlier analyses of voter behavior discovered errors which included 10 to 25 percent of the sample. The present work examines an important attitudinal question which appears in each national election study: the time at which the respondent recalls making a final presidential vote choice. Data from the four-wave 1980 National Election Panel Study are used to validate the recall variable for that election campaign. A new variable — candidate preference patterns — is created which reflects consistency in individual voter preference. Only forty percent of the sample reflect consistent responses on the two measures. Furthermore, partisan strength and political involvement are found to be positively related to inconsistent behavior. Cognitive dissonance and the bandwagon effect are offered as explanations for these results.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1986
TL;DR: This paper examined non-white political participation and policy preferences over approximately the last decade in British politics and found that nonwhite leaders were often self-selected, with minimal followings and little political impact.
Abstract: Early studies of the politics of race in Britain, including those of the author of this chapter, were criticised for focusing on the attitudes and behaviour of the white electorate and white politicians rather than exploring the views of non-white immigrants and leaders. From an empirical viewpoint, the major problem in analysing mass nonwhite attitudes was that the numbers of non-whites in any mass survey were too small for extensive analysis.1 Census data did not enumerate ethnic groups, and small area surveys were likely to be unrepresentative of broader populations.2 On the elite level, nonwhite leaders were often self-selected, with minimal followings and little political impact. Although these problems have not disappeared, there now exists a sufficient base of data, at least on the mass level, to draw conclusions about countrywide non-white political behaviour with greater confidence. This paper will use these data in order to examine non-white political participation and policy preferences over approximately the last decade in British politics. Of course, one cannot discuss the politics of race without making some references to the views of the overwhelmingly dominant white majority population (95 %) and the even more overwhelmingly dominant white politicians (100 % in the House of Commons).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a sample of 3,955 British voters, taken in 1983, provide further support for the latter view and the reasons for this are explored. But they are based almost entirely on aggregate data.
Abstract: There is a strong current in the social sciences at the present time arguing that the concept of a separate urban phenomenon, defined spatially, is irrelevant to understanding society. Against this, others argue that places matter in a whole variety of ways. Recent analyses of voting behavior in Britain support the latter view, but they are based almost entirely on aggregate data. Analyses of a sample of 3,955 British voters, taken in 1983, provide further support for the latter view. Labour voting is shown to vary not only by class but also by place—both region and settlement type. The reasons for this are explored.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical and empirical analysis of wage determination in the state government sector is presented, based on the assumption that state government's objective is to maximize its political support, which leads to predictable behavior regarding how state government employment policies react to changes in state's wealth, income inequality, composition of constituency groups and voting behavior.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a model emphasizing the political beliefs and attitudes of classroom teachers is introduced, and the implications of the model for changing existing practices and outcomes of political education are discussed.
Abstract: Empirical research is reviewed which suggests that the American school does not prepare students to participate responsibility and competently as citizens of a democratic society. Particular messages and practices of the school are identified which appear to work against the development of politically informed, motivated and skilled future citizens. Several alternative models of political socialization are critically assessed to determine why the model may be failing to perform its political role vital to a democracy. A model emphasizing the political beliefs and attitudes of classroom teachers is introduced. Implications of the model for changing existing practices and outcomes of political education are discussed.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the state level, the number of women elected to state legislatures more than tripled from 305 in 1968 to 992 in 1983, with the most striking advances at the state-level as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Recently considerable attention has focused on the status of women in the American political system. The decade of the seventies was marked by accelerated competition of women for public office. Between 1970 and 1980 women's total representation showed substantial gains at all levels, with the most striking advances at the state level.1 Since 1968, the number of women elected to state legislatures more than tripled, from 305 in 1968 to 992 in 1983. Even though state legislatures are predominantly male, there is considerable variation from state to state in the degree of male domination. Since once in state legislative offices, women, unlike men, are less likely to seek higher office, and since their proportional representation is considerably greater in state legislatures than in Congress, the state legislature is a particularly interesting area for research. Differing explanations have been offered by political scientists as to why women have a lower rate of participation as public officials than men. These explanations include (1) physiological constraints (women lack the psychosocial characteristics associated with political leadership); (2) cultural constraints (politics is man's work); (3) role constraints (women have been socialized into the lifetime role of wife/mother); (4) male conspiracy (men seek to preserve their power positions by imposing restraints barring women from access to positions of influence).2 The economics literature suggests several factors that are important determinants of voter support. Stigler (1971) argues that self-interest in voting influences a voter's support for a candidate. The greater the perceived net personal economic gain from a candidate's position on various issues the more likely an individual voter will support the candidate. Conversely the greater the perceived net economic cost that a candidate's position imposes on a voter, the less likely the voter will support the candidate. A second important factor influencing voter support is ideology. Kau and Rubin (1979) suggest that ideology plays an important role in explaining voter behavior. An individual voter is more likely to support a candidate

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed congressional voting behavior with regard to the Fair Practices in Automotive Product Act (HR 5133) and found that congressional closeness to labor was more important than their party affiliation, or the other two variables, in explaining their vote on local content.
Abstract: This study analyzes congressmen's voting behavior with regard to the ‘Fair Practices in Automotive Product Act (HR 5133)’, commonly known as the local content legislation, which was introduced to the 97th US Congress. Among other things, we conducted a quantitative analysis involving four independent variables: congressmen's party affiliation, their closeness to labor, the unemployment rate in their home states, and their seniority in Congress. As a result, congressmen's closeness to labor was found to be more important than their party affiliation, or the other two variables, in explaining their vote on local content. On further investigation, we have arrived at a new understanding of congressional politics, namely that labor's trade impact is possibly maximized on measures unlikely to become law, and that congressmen often support such measures to send signals to domestic constituencies and to foreign governments. The study goes on to discuss the negative implications of such congressional ‘signalling’ for US—Japanese relations, thereby underscoring the need to examine congressional politics in the context of alliance politics and the declining US hegemony in an interdependent world.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 1986-Polity
TL;DR: Atkins and Sloope as mentioned in this paper found that Black did show declining support not only for issues pertaining to civil liberties and civil rights, but also for those relating to economic liberalism.
Abstract: Much has been said in the political science and law literature over whether or not Justice Hugo Black remained consistent in his voting behavior during his last several years on the Supreme Court. The debate focuses on Black's behavior during the 1960's and on whether his declining support, during that time, for civil liberties and civil rights is in fact only the apparent effect of the Court itself having become much more liberal. In this article Professor Atkins and Mr. Sloope test several hypotheses concerning Black and the Supreme Court from 1953 to 1971. They find that Black did show declining support not only for issues pertaining to civil liberties and civil rights, but also for those relating to economic liberalism.

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, MERELMAN and NORRANDER present a survey of the state of the art in the field of social science f&artedy, including the following:
Abstract: Social Science f&artedy ., &an A. W W S , College 01 &ban Affairs, Cleveland State University, Clevefand, Ohio 441 15 Richard M. MERELMAN. Department of Pditical S c i . University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 Peter A. MORRISON, Population Research Center, The Rand Corporation, Post Office Box 2138, Santa Monica, California 90406-2138 Daniel N. NELSON, Department of Political Science, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40506-0027 Barbara NORRANDER. Department of Political Science, San Jose State University. San Jose, California 95192-01 19 Saul SCHWARTZ, Department of Econmics. Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts 02155

Book
01 Jul 1986
TL;DR: In this article, a critique of the major schools of western political theory, providing a feminist dimension to contemporary political analysis, is presented, with a wide range of issues relating to political theory and women's studies.
Abstract: This important critique of the major schools of western political theory, provides a feminist dimension to contemporary political analysis. It covers a wide range of issues relating to political theory and women's studies. This book fills a large gap in political theory and will be essential reading for all political scientists. From different feminist perspectives, the authors reappraise and reconstruct political science in terms of a powerful new critique. Individual chapters consider the development of feminist thought in history and analyse the place occupied by women's issues in contemporary political theory. Conflicts within traditional Marxist as well as 'New Right' ideologies are highlighted by a feminist analysis that reveals how the distinction between 'public' and 'private' spheres in traditional political theory has marginalized women. This work examines the fundamental question of whether it is merely the content, or the essential methods and tools of political analysis, that need to be reassessed.