Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1988"

Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies

Abstract: Does a government's fate at the ballot box hinge on the state of the economy? Is it inflation, unemployment, or income that makes the difference? What triggers economic voting for or against the incumbent - do voters look at their pocketbooks, or at the national accounts? Do economic voters "punish" rulers for bad times, but fail to "reward" them for the good times? Are voter's judgments based on past economic performance or future policy promises? These are some of the questions considered by Michael Lewis-Beck in this major cross-national study of the effect of economic conditions on voting behavior in the Western European democracies and the United States.

Presidential primaries and the dynamics of public choice

Abstract: This innovative study blends sophisticated statistical analyses, campaign anecdotes, and penetrating political insight to produce a fascinating exploration of one of America's most controversial political institutions--the process by which our major parties nominate candidates for the presidency. Larry Bartels focuses on the nature and impact of "momentum" in the contemporary nominating system. He describes the complex interconnections among primary election results, expectations, and subsequent primary results that have made it possible for candidates like Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Gary Hart to emerge from relative obscurity into political prominence in recent nominating campaigns. In the course of his analysis, he addresses questions central to any understanding--or evaluation--of the modern nominating process. How do fundamental political predispositions influence the behavior of primary voters? How quickly does the public learn about new candidates? Under what circumstances will primary success itself generate subsequent primary success? And what are the psychological processes underlying this dynamic tendency?Professor Bartels examines the likely consequences of some proposed alternatives to the current nominating process, including a regional primary system and a one-day national primary. Thus the work will be of interest to political activists, would-be reformers, and interested observers of the American political scene, as well as to students of public opinion, voting behavior, the news media, campaigns, and electoral institutions.

The role of attitude importance in social evaluation: a study of policy preferences, presidential candidate evaluations, and voting behavior.

Abstract: According to a number of social psychological theories, attitudes toward government policies that people consider important should have substantial impact on presidential candidate preferences, and unimportant attitudes should have relatively little impact. Surprisingly, the accumulated evidence evaluating this hypothesis offers little support for it. This article reexamines the hypothesis, applying more appropriate analysis methods to data collected during the 1968, 1980, and 1984 American presidential election campaigns. The impact of policy attitudes on candidate preferences was indeed found to depend on the importance of those attitudes, just as theory suggests. The analysis also documented two mechanisms of this increased impact: People for whom a policy attitude is important perceive larger differences between competing candidates' attitudes, and important attitudes appear to be more accessible in memory than unimportant ones. According to political theorists, democratic governments maintain stability and legitimacy because citizens elect representafives who implement government policies that they favor (e.g., Dahl, 1956; Pennock, 1979). This is presumed to occur because voters' candidate preferences are determined in part by the match between their attitudes toward government policies (called policy attitudes) and their perceptions of candidates' attitudes toward those policies. This notion, referred to as policy voting, is consistent with the many social psychological theories that assert that social attraction is based in part on attitudinal similarity (Byrne, 1971; Festinger, 1954; Heider, 1958). It is also consistent with the results of many studies of voting behavior in recent American presidential elections. In addition to affiliations with political parties, assessments of candidates' personality traits, the emotions candidates evoke in voters, and evaluations of incumbent presidents' performance in office, candidate preferences are shaped by voters' policy attitudes and their perceptions of candidates' policy attitudes (see Kinder & Sears,

A mathematical proof of Duverger's Law

Abstract: A famous stylized fact in comparative politics, Duverger' s Law, is that electoral systems based on single ballot winner-take-all plurality voting will produce bipartisan competition. This paper presents an equilibrium model of elections in which this stylized fact emerges a logical implication of rational strategic voting behavior by individuals in a large heterogeneous electorate.

Political Culture and Political Preferences

Abstract: Aaron Wildavsky has argued that it is theoretically more useful to think of political preferences as rooted in political culture than to entertain alternative bases such as schemas or ideologies. In the APSA presidential address in which he made his case, Wildavsky also advocated a program of research on political cultures, and welcomed “challenges and improvements.” David Laitin accepts the invitation; he variously takes issue with Wildavsky's concept of political culture.

The Political System Matters: Social Psychology and Voting Behavior in Sweden and the United States

Abstract: Acknowledgements 1. Social psychological processes in political context 2. Subjective ideology: left-right and liberal-conservative 3. Partisan political issues 4. Mass attitude systems 5. Parties, leaders and candidates 6. Ideology and proximity voting 7. The preference-expectation link and voting behaviour 8. From intention to behaviour in election campaigns 9. Prior behaviour, recalled behaviour and the prediction of subsequent voting behaviour 10. Political systems, cognitive-affective processes, and voting behaviour Notes References Indexes.

The Effect of Partisan Information on Voters in Nonpartisan Elections

Abstract: How does partisan information affect individual voting behavior in nonpartisan elections? Using data from a 1982 California Poll survey on state supreme court confirmation elections we demonstrate that nonpartisan elections are easily turned into partisan contests in the minds of voters. Partisan information increases the probability of an individual holding an opinion on the elections, and results in votes which are based on the respondent's partisan identification and opinion of the governor who appointed the justice. The implications of these results for nonpartisan elections in general and merit retention contests in particular are also discussed.

Choice, Social Structure, and Political Information: The Informational Coercion of Minorities *

Abstract: This study examines the effects of individual political preference, and the distribution of such preferences, upon the choice of political discussion partners. The data base for the study combines a 1984 election survey of citizens in South Bend, Indiana, with a subsequent survey of people with whom these citizens discuss politics. Special attention is given to the consequences attendant on minority and majority preference distributions in the local social milieu. Reagan and Mondale voters are shown to respond similarly to political support from the social context, and observed differences in political behavior for these two groups are shown to be the consequence of differential distributions, in local social contexts, of Reagan and Mondale supporters. Rational voters exhibit rational information search behavior, but political choice emerges in the analysis as a compromise between individual political preference and socially structured discussion opportunity. Citizens in a democracy exercise free choice when they obtain political information. They avoid some information sources, and they seek out others based upon their own political preferences and viewpoints. Indeed, the availability of informational alternatives is one of the defining characteristics of democratic politics. Liberals are free to read liberal newspapers, and conservatives are free to read conservative newspapers. More important for this analysis, Democrats are free to seek out other Democrats as political discussion partners, and Republicans are free to seek out other Republicans. While this sort of free informational choice is central to democracy, it is also constrained by social structure. Free choice operates within opportunities and constraints that are imposed by the social context, and the central issues pursued here are two. First, how is informational choice circumscribed by the structurally determined opportunities for social interaction, interaction which carries political content? Second, what are the consequences for majority and minority political preferences?

Universalism and the Parties in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1921-80

Abstract: In the study of legislative voting behavior, theoretical and empirical work has focused mainly on the description and explanation of patterns of conflict. However, scholars working within the rational choice framework have recently drawn attention to the importance of the "universalistic" coalition, which is characterized by a high degree of consensus among the voting membership. So far, evidence of the universalistic coalition has been restricted to specific policy areas at specific points in time. This analysis examines the prevalence of the universalistic coalition on roll call votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1921-80, and contrasts it with party behavior over these same years. The results indicate a strong inverse relationship between universalistic behavior and partisan conflict. Two explanations of their interconnectedness are offered.

The Social Sources of Political Knowledge

Abstract: The study explored the sources of political knowledge using data from the 1984 Canadian National Election Study. Two dimensions of political knowledge were measured: factual knowledge, in which respondents were asked to name the 10 provincial premiers; and conceptual knowledge, in terms of respondents’ abilities to define and use the concepts of left and right. The authors tested four explanations of people's levels of political knowledge; these dealt with education, political participation, media effects and region, with controls for income, residency in several provinces, age and sex. Education was significantly associated with both forms of knowledge, but especially with conceptual knowledge. Reading about politics in newspapers and magazines was strongly related to the two knowledge variables. The effects of reliance on television for political information, however, were much weaker. There were significant effects for region, with the patterns depending on the type of knowledge. The study concludes with some observations about the role of knowledge in political behaviour.

Factors Affecting Perceptions of Political Candidates Accused of Sexual and Financial Misconduct

Abstract: Eighty subjects viewed a videotaped simulated debate between an incumbent candidate and his challenger for a fictitious post of County Commissioner. In a 2 x 2 x 2 design, either the incumbent candidate or his subordinate was accused of sexual or financial misconduct, and the incumbent candidate either denied the misconduct charges or apologized for the misconduct. Consistent with Schlenker's (1980) theory of "impression management," denial of misconduct charges was a more effective strategy in obtaining votes than apologizing for misconduct. The candidate was also viewed more negatively if he was directly accused of misconduct than if his subordinate was accused. Voting patterns of subjects in the study were consistent with ratings of the honesty, ethics, and trustworthiness of the incumbent candidate.

Corporate Political Groupings: Does Ideology Unify Business Political Behavior?

Abstract: Pluralists argue that corporations with different economic interests and market orientations are incapable of collective political strategy and actions, while class theorists argue that corporations have sufficient class interests to evolve a collective political class strategy. We examined this controversy using a variant of clique detection methods for business Political Action Committee (PAC) contributions to Congressional candidates in the 1980 election. One large group of corporations emerged based on shared conservative beliefs. No other groups nearly as large were detected. The findings were strong and robust for different levels of political similarity. The identified groups differed from each other economically in various ways, but these differences were not nearly as marked as the political differences. Overall, the evidence lends stronger support to the class rather than the pluralist perspective.

The Impact of Unions on the Voting Behavior of Their Members

Abstract: Based on a survey of members of AFL-CIO-affiliated unions in Pennsylvania, this paper investigates the influence of unions on how their members voted in the 1984 Presidential election. The authors find that unions had little effect on the number of members who voted but surprisingly strong influence on the Presidential choice of those who did vote. Union members who actively participated in their union, held union leadership positions, and reported that they had received literature or telephone calls about the election from their union were significantly more likely than other members to support the candidate endorsed by their union (Mondale). The electronic media influenced voting behavior significantly, but traditional forms of union communication were more influential than many believe.

Presidential elections and American politics: Voters, candidates, and campaigns since 1952

Abstract: Presidential elections and the American political system. Part One: Citizens and elections. A framework for analyzing voting behavior. Party identification. The issue-voting controversy. Issues and candidates, 1952-1972. The Carter, Reagan and Bush elections, 1976-1988. Part Two: Candidates and elections. Elections: From citizens to candidates. The campaign financing, recruitment, and nomination of presidential candidates. The media and presidential politics. Running for president. Toward the future. Appendices. References. Bibliography. Name Index. Subject Index.

Optimism About Elections: Dissonance Reduction at the Ballot Box

Abstract: This field experiment investigated the effects of the act of voting itself on voters' attitudes in the 1984 presidential election. The subjects were 139 voters who were interviewed either on entering or immediately on departing the polling place. They responded to questions concerning the chances of their candidates being elected president, the outcome of the presidential vote locally, their perceived closeness to their candidates on the issues, and to a nonpolitical question (concerning the beauty of the fall foliage) designed to detect any generalized mood changes as a result of voting. The results showed that people were significantly more confident of their candidates' chances after voting than before, even controlling for any generalized optimism (p < .02). Voting for a presidential candidate had an effect only on expectations concerning the outcome of the race for the presidency, and not on seemingly related questions. The experiment replicates and clarifies previous findings on the effects of post-decision dissonance on attitudes in natural settings.

The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice--the View From "Rolling Thunder"

Abstract: This paper uses the theoretical framework developed by Granger in his analysis of causality in dynamic systems to examine the short-term causal relationships between party identification, issue perceptions, candidate evaluations, and voting behavior in the United States. The results show that the revisionist analysis, which suggests that partisanship is an endogenous function of cognitive-based issue perceptions, is not supported. However, the revisionists are correct in asserting that partisanship is unstable over time. But the stability of partisanship is a separate question from its exogeneity in the vote function. It is argued that partisanship is a tally of affective evaluations, which are quite distinct from issue-based evaluations. Partisanship, candidate evaluations, and issues all independently Granger-cause voting behavior, and the former is more important than the latter in determining the vote choice.

Constitution Making: A Rational Choice Model of the Federal Convention of 1787

Abstract: This study offers a theoretical and statistical analysis of the voting behavior of the delegates to the United States Constitutional Convention. The theoretical paradigm employed is rational choice, a model in which individuals are viewed as expected utility maximizers. Logit analysis is used to test the model empirically. Sixteen different roll calls are investigated. The empirical results suggest that the Founding Fathers may have voted both their personal and their constituents' economic interests when those interests were at stake. The measures of constituents' interests contain the most explanatory power. When there was no clear benefit or cost to specific economic interests, voting at the convention appears not to be related to those interests. The study differs from previous investigations because it analyzes individual roll calls under two separate hypotheses and utilizes data on constituent interests as well as on the wealth, economic interests, and probable voting stances of the 55 delegates to the Federal Convention of 1787. The results suggest that the importance of economic interests in constitution making should be given a more prominent role in the political science literature.

Political reasoning and cognition

Abstract: This work presents a new, alternative approach to studying the formation of political ideologies and attitudes, addressing a concern in political science that research in this area is at a crossroads. The authors provide an epistemologically grounded critique on the literature of belief systems, explaining why traditional approaches have reached the limits of usefulness. Following the lead of such continental theorists such as Jurgen Habermas and Anthony Giddens, who stress the importance of Jean Piaget to the development of a strong theoretical perspective in political psychology, the authors develop a different epistemology, theory, and research strategy based on Piaget, then apply it in two emperical studies of belief systems, and finally present a third theoretical study of political culture and political development.

Constituency Candidates Versus Parties in Japanese Voting Behavior

Abstract: Most studies of Japanese elections have seen constituency candidates and their campaigns as the major factor in electoral mobilization. In order to explore the effects of candidate campaigns and voters' images of candidates, as well as party identifications, party images, partisan issue opinions, and past voting, I develop models portraying these effects upon the vote, both separately and together, and test the models using survey data. The results show that partisan attitudes are the dominant force in Japanese parliamentary voting. The most plausible explanation for the importance of partisan factors lies in the electorate's being exposed regularly to information about parties but only intermittently to information about candidates. The plausibility of an information-based explanation of the importance of robust partisan attitudes in Japan suggests in turn that comparative differences in voting may reflect systemic variations in information processes.

The myth of the corporate political jungle: politicization as a political strategy

Abstract: It is argued that the belief that the intraorganizational environment is necessarily a political one represents a myth propagated and entertained to address various needs of organizational members. One consequence of subscription to the myth of the corporate political jungle is a belief in the necessity for, and as a result the performance of, ‘political’ behaviour itself. ‘Political’ responses by others to this behaviour empirically support the myth and justify the behaviour. It is argued that political behaviour incurs dysfunctional consequences that warrant its reduction or elimination. Because political behaviour responds to belief in its inevitability, reduction of political behaviour ultimately depends upon acceptance of the argument presented in this discussion that the workplace is not inherently political.

Metropolitan, Nonmetropolitan, and Sectional Variations in Voting Behavior in Recent Presidential Elections:

Abstract: as industrialization, a sharpening of class consciousness, and immigration.&dquo; Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty as to the relative salience of urbanization versus that of sectionalism in American electoral politics, since these forces have rarely been juxtaposed explicitly in empirical research designs. The thesis that urbanization has eroded sectionalism embodies a premise that national electoral mosaics the outcomes of elections viewed

Voter turnout and candidate choice: A merged theory

Abstract: An alternative approach to the explanation of voting behavior is offered, suggesting that the starting point of electoral decision making is individuals' recall of their behavior in the last similar situation. Whether or not this recall is accurate is irrelevant in our model, since the voters' reasoning proceeds from their belief about their earlier behavior, whether or not it is correct. Using this approach we are able to treat voting from a unified perspective, rather than adopting the current stance of treating the turnout decision as separate from and preceding the candidate choice decision.

Economic justice, political behavior, and American political values

Abstract: Although theories of political economy state that citizens' concerns about economic outcomes are important determinants of their political responses, an alternative perspective states that concerns about economic justice influence political responses Survey data were examined to determine the relative influence of each of these factors on political evaluations and behaviors Concerns about the justice of the procedures used by the government to make decisions about the distribution of benefits and services strongly predicted evaluations of President Reagan and participation in policy-related political behavior, and were weakly related to general political activism Concerns about the justice of the distributions of economic benefits were related to evaluations of President Reagan but not to political activism Judgments about personal economic gain or loss relative to the past predicted evaluations of President Reagan while global subjective judgments of present economic outcomes weakly predicted policy-related political activism The effect of justice is explained by considering the relationship between citizens' concerns about economic justice and values associated with the American political culture

Voters as Investors: A Rent-Seeking Resolution of the Paradox of Voting

Abstract: Although the economic approach to politics has generated many insights into the workings of the political process, economists have not made much headway toward providing a satisfactory explanation for observed voting behavior in democracies Downs (1957) and Tullock (1976), for example, have analyzed the voting decision within the context of a simple benefit-cost model Put in these terms, it is astonishing that anyone ever bothers to vote The probability that any one vote will be decisive in an election is vanishingly small, and so the expected benefits of voting cannot exceed the costs of registering and going to the polls for more than a few citizens In order to account for the relatively high voter turnouts that do occur—more than 80 million ballots were cast in each of the three most recent US presidential elections, for instance—an alternative hypothesis has been put forward emphasizing the consumption rather than the investment aspects of voting (see, eg, Riker and Ordeshook, 1968) The main idea here is that utility may be derived from participating in an election that is independent of the outcome (for example, from the exercise of one’s “civic duty”) Peer pressure and other “sociological” factors have also been suggested as influential in the decision to vote1

Electoral Cycles in Economic Policy

Abstract: A fruitful interaction is occurring between economists and political scientists regarding the relationship between politics and macroeconomic policy. On the one hand, economists are learning that they can no longer abstract from ideology, income distribution, and voting behavior when modeling macroeconomic policy. For example, political scientists are teaching economists that in the real world "fiscal policy" is simply the outcome of promised, politically advantageous redistributions of income through taxes and expenditures-marginal countercyclical fiscal adjustments are just not practicable. On the other hand, political scientists are learning that they can no longer ignore the ineffectiveness of policy actions that are not credible to rational economic agents. For example, economists are teaching political scientists that only shifts in monetary policy that surprise market participants can have a favorable impact on output, employment, and interest rates.

The West German Electorate and the Party System: Continuity and Change in the 1980s

Abstract: Changes in voting behavior and the party system in the three federal elections since 1980 indicate that West German politics have entered a new transitional phase. The periods of CDU hegemony, 1949–1969, and two party competition, 1972–1980, have passed. Both major parties have lost support, turnout has declined, ticket-splitting has increased and New Politics issues such as the environment, disarmament and civil liberties have become salient to increasing numbers of voters. The influence of social class, religion and regional ties on voting behavior has declined. Electoral behavior has become more volatile and uncertain. Four major sources of these changes are identified: the postwar transformation of German social structure; the changing value priorities of mass publics; the introduction of new issues; and the electoral strategies of the parties as determined by their elites and leaders. The study concludes with a discussion of the future of the party system and the prospects for a major dealignment or realignment in West German politics.