Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1990"
TL;DR: The field of positive political economy as discussed by the authors is a new research tradition that is distinct from both normative and historical approaches to political economy, which is concerned with the derivation of principles and propositions against which real-world experience may be compared.
Abstract: This volume serves as an introduction to the field of positive political economy and the economic and political processes with which it is concerned. This new research tradition is distinct from both normative and historical approaches to political economy. Grounded in the rational-actor methodology of microeconomics, positive political economy is the study of rational decisions in a context of political and economic institutions. More analytical than traditional approaches, it is concerned with the derivation of principles and propositions against which real-world experience may be compared. Its focus is on empirical regularities, and its goal is theoretical explanation. The field has focused on three main areas of research: models of collective action, constraints on competitive market processes, and the analysis of transaction costs. Developments in all of these areas are covered in the book. The first part of the volume surveys the field, while the second part displays positive political economy at work, examining a variety of subjects. The final part contains essays by leading political economists on the theoretical foundations of the field.
478 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that political awareness is best measured by simple tests of factual information about politics and that people use cues and other information from political elites to translate their general value orientations into support for particular polices.
Abstract: Political awareness affects virtually every aspect of citizens' political attitudes and voting behavior. Among its effects are greater attitude stability, greater ideological consistency, and greater support for a nation's “mainstream” values. Yet there exists no comprehensive explanation of why political awareness has the pervasive effects that it has. Nor is there agreement on how the concept of political awareness should be conceptualized and measured. This article addresses both concerns. First, it draws on ideas from voting, belief-system, and other studies to develop a general theory of the effects of awareness. This account centers on how citizens use cues and other information from political elites to translate their general value orientations into support for particular polices. Second, the article argues that, on both theoretical and empirical grounds, political awareness is best measured by simple tests of factual information about politics.
271 citations
TL;DR: A survey of the various political expertise and schema measures in use reveals little consensus among researchers and little basis for comparison across research programs as discussed by the authors. But the survey was conducted with a sample of Pittsburgh voters who then read newspaper articles on political issues of current local interest.
Abstract: A catalog of the various political expertise and schema measures in use reveals little consensus among researchers and little basis for comparison across research programs. To examine the varieties of political expertise and their utilities in political information processing, virtually the entire battery of the available measures was given to a sample of Pittsburgh voters, who then read newspaper articles on political issues of current local interest. Confirmatory factor analysis of the expertise measures indicated a cluster of political knowledge, operationalized as (a) accurate consensual knowledge about liberals' and conservatives' issue stands, plus various individuals' and groups' ideological stands, (b) the issue stands of the president and one group, and (c) facts about the government. Other coherent dimensions of political expertise included political activity, print media use, electronic media use, and political self-schema. Structural equations supported political knowledge and print media usag...
196 citations
176 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors differentiate between general political sophistication and domain-specific expertise, and develop a theoretical argument specifying how the two levels differ and the nature of their impact on a variety of memory and judgment processes.
Abstract: In this article we differentiate between general political sophistication and domain-specific expertise, and we develop a theoretical argument specifying how the two levels differ and the nature of their impact on a variety of memory and judgment processes. Subjects, differentiated according to level of political sophistication and expertise in the income tax system, were provided with detailed information about the Tax Reform Act of 1986, and they were required to process this information under different manipulated encoding sets. They were then asked to recall the information and to provide a number of political judgments. The results indicate that the two types of expertise have distinct and theoretically meaningful consequences for political cognition. General political sophistication (but not domain-specific expertise) facilitated evaluative clustering and on-line processing. Domain-specific experts showed enhanced overall recall and larger selective memory effects, with some evidence that these effe...
147 citations
01 Sep 1990
TL;DR: The impulse to study politics scientifically is both old and persistent as mentioned in this paper, and Adams studied republics in exactly the Aristotelian spirit and with, perhaps, an even bolder claim for political science: The vegetable and animal kingdoms, and those heavenly bodies whose existence and movements we are, as yet only permitted faintly to perceive, do not appear to be governed by laws more uniform or certain than those that regulate the moral and political world.
Abstract: The impulse to study politics scientifically is both old and persistent. Aristotle collected 158 constitutions in order to generalize about events and institutions in the Politics . Early in the Renaissance, Machiavelli revived the Aristotelian program in the Discourses and The Prince , although he did not seem to have as clear a vision of the scientific method as did Aristotle. Late in the eighteenth century, when the term political science came into general use, John Adams studied republics in exactly the Aristotelian spirit and with, perhaps, an even bolder claim for political science: The vegetable and animal kingdoms, and those heavenly bodies whose existence and movements we are, as yet only permitted faintly to perceive, do not appear to be governed by laws more uniform or certain than those that regulate the moral and political world. (Adams 1850–1856, vol. VI, p. 218) By the twentieth century, however, hardly anyone shared Adams's faith in the relative certainty of social and physical science. Surely few people now believe that our laws of political life are as certain or as useful for making predictions as are the laws employed in sending a man to the moon or in eradicating smallpox. In 1778, however, when Adams started his book, electricity had been identified but hardly understood, chemistry consisted mainly of the story of phlogiston, and no one had ever thought that bacteria were connected with disease.
131 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1990
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the impact of political instability on the economy and its impact on the individual and his environment, as well as the aggregate effect of political violence on the entire economy.
Abstract: The Scope of the Study The Study of Political Violence in Perspective The Conflict-Free World of Western Social Science: Paradigm Lost Theories of Collective Rebellious Behavior: Paradigm Regained The Individual: The Logic of Participatory Decision The Behavioral Foundations of a Rational Participant in Collective Rebellion The Individual and His Environment The Aggregate: The Impact of Political Instability on the Economy Impact of Political Instability: The Anatomy of an Economic Crisis Political Instability: An Empirical Definition Political Instability: A Structural Explanation Political Instability and Economic Performance: A Political Economic Model of Growth Summary and Policy Implications Appendix: Index for Political Instability Bibliography Index
102 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a study of roll call voting behavior in the U.S. House of Representatives empirically documents the existence of an important simultaneity bias in the heretofore much-investigated relationship between legislator ideological shirking and the security with which a legislator holds office.
Abstract: This study of roll call voting behavior in the U.S. House of Representatives empirically documents the existence of an important simultaneity bias in the heretofore much-investigated relationship between legislator ideological shirking and the security with which a legislator holds office. The results indicate that while greater security allows a policymaker more leeway for ideological consumption, increases in ideological on-the-job consumption also diminish a policymaker's security in office. It is because natural selection is at work in the market for legislators and because retiring legislators, prior to the retirement decision, are “fitter” when it comes to representing their constituents in roll call voting, that the voting behavior displayed by retirers following their decision to quit House office does not differ appreciably from the voting behavior displayed by nonretirers. Much as academics may publish less in the years immediately after obtaining tenure even though they continue to publish at least as much as the average assistant professor, retiring members of the House appear to shirk their constituents' interests more after deciding to retire even though the amount of shirking they undertake does not differ markedly from the amount of shirking undertaken by the average nonretirer.
94 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test the validity of the videomalaise thesis and find no connection between political malaise and the contents of political programming and conclude that political alienation and low participation are related to the use made of entertainment content in both television and the press.
Abstract: The concept of `videomalaise' was first used in America in the 1970s to describe the dual phenomenon of a loss of trust in political institutions and individuals' increasing reliance on television as a means of obtaining political information. Could it be that the particular features of political programming caused political malaise? Using West German survey data, the research presented here tests the validity of the videomalaise thesis. No connection was found between political malaise and the contents of political programming which leads to the conclusion that the videomalaise thesis is unwarranted. Instead, political alienation and low participation are related to the use made of entertainment content in both television and the press.
81 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors re-examine the classic interpersonal explanation of electoral participation and provide evidence that one crucial aspect of social context, the spousal relationship, cannot be neglected in explaining electoral participation.
Abstract: This paper reexamines the classic interpersonal explanation of electoral participation. The analysis is based on loglinear modeling of published tabulations from the November 1984, 1982, and 1980 Current Population Surveys. The results support a contagion model of spousal voting. Turnout is higher among those living with a spouse than among other members of the electorate. The high association between husband's and wife's turnout noted in a 1956 presidential election survey (Q = .94) is found to be robust and stable over time. The relevance of these findings for contemporary models of electoral participation is discussed. The role of personal relationships in turning out voters is absent or negligible in contemporary models of electoral participation (Kinder and Sears, 1985; Aldrich and Simon, 1986; Grofman, 1987).1 In contrast, the classic Columbia voting studies (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet, 1948; Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee, 1954) delineated systematically the social context of voting behavior. Primary-group associates (friends and family) were theorized as providers of political information and influence. The likely mechanisms by which social environments stimulate turnout include the channeling of political information, persuasive argumentation, social pressure, cooperation, and friendly competition. A voter's family, friends, and coworkers serve as bridges to larger networks of social relations (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee, 1954:94) which provide access to the information and resources that stimulate political interest and provide an informed basis for making ballot choices. Interpersonal influence occurs when the reluctant voter adopts or acquiesces to an associate's expectations, when associates BRUCE C. STRAITS is Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The author thanks Noah E. Friedkin, Eric R. A. N. Smith, and Thomas P. Wilson for comments on an earlier draft. 1. A notable exception is the network approach of Huckfeldt and Sprague, 1987, 1988. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 54:64-73 ? 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.91 on Wed, 21 Sep 2016 06:01:32 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms The Social Context of Voter Turnout 65 reciprocally support each other's electoral participation, and even when an individual is motivated to vote for the opposing candidate to cancel out an associate's choice. This paper provides evidence that one crucial aspect of social context, the spousal relationship, cannot be neglected in explanations of electoral participation. The results support a contagion model of voting: turnout is higher among those living with a spouse, and spouses tend to be joint voters or nonvoters. The similarity in spousal voting appears quite stable over time and unaffected when controls are applied for the major nonattitudinal determinants of voter turnout (educational attainment and age).
80 citations
TL;DR: This article developed a theory about how people assess political candidates in order to arrive at a basic like or dislike judgment for each candidate, arguing that voters emphasize both the candidates' personal qualities and the unique nature of the campaign environment.
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a theory about how people assess political candidates in order to arrive at a basic like or dislike judgment for each candidate. We argue that in deciding whether to like or dislike candidates, voters emphasize both the candidates' personal qualities and the unique nature of the campaign environment. Since initial impressions of presidential candidates are formed before voters make direct comparisons for the general election, voters may compare their images of candidates with their intuitive ideas about "human nature" or "most people." In arriving at candidate evaluations, then, voters might rely on a "superman" standard, expecting their political leaders to rise above human nature. Alternatively, they might rely on an "everyman" standard, expecting their leaders to be as representative or typical as possible. Using data from the 1984 presidential election, we find that although the superman model fits the data better, the everyman model has some impact, particularly on feelings toward Reagan. This may explain, in part, the often-noted bias in favor of the incumbent.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the changes in political outlook and behavior that take place during the adult years, providing an invaluable overview of the problems, theories, and methodological approaches that characterize the field of political socialization.
Abstract: In the wake of World War II, the issues of political stability in general and the survival of stable democracies in particular captured the attention of American political scientists. An inevitable offshoot of this interest was the study of political behavior how it is acquired and how and why it persists. In its early stages, work on political socialization focused exclusively on childhood and adolescence, as if the learning process ends when adulthood begins. Only recently has adult socialization emerged as a legitimate field of study within political science. In "Political Learning in Adulthood," social scientists for the first time examine the changes in political outlook and behavior that take place during the adult years, providing an invaluable overview of the problems, theories, and methodological approaches that characterize the field of political socialization. They consider which political values remain constant and which are subject to change, and they explore the ways in which both ordinary and extraordinary life events affect adults' political worldviews. Among specific topics considered are the effects of age and aging, the relation between participation in the work force and the development and expression of political views, continuity and change in the wake of revolutionary social and political movements, and the effects of such traumatic and life-threatening situations as war and terrorist activity."
TL;DR: Schrott et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the long-neglected impact of a candidate being perceived as the winner of political debates on individual voting behavior in West Germany and found that there is a consistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual voter's individual voting choices.
Abstract: This study explores the long-neglected impact of a candidate being perceived as the "winner" of political debates on individual voting behavior in West Germany. While there has been much research on the effects of debates on perceptions of candidate policy stands and personality attributes, there has been little work that attempts to gauge how much "winning" the debate helps a candidate at the polls. I investigate this process with straightforward probit models of the vote choice, including party identification and candidate evaluation, as well as whether the individual judged a particular candidate as the "winner," or "fared best" in the debate. These models are run for the 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1983 elections in West Germany. The results show that there is a consistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual voting choices in West Germany; controlling for party and other factors, there is a significantly higher probability of voting for the party of the politician the respondent feels won the contest. Debates, then, do ultimately make a substantial electoral difference. Since the first televised presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960, both the public and social scientists have become increasingly interested in following political campaign debates. For the public, televised debates are perhaps the only opportunity to watch and judge the candidates in a face-to-face contest. In these events the usual media "gatekeepers" (White, 1950) are bypassed, and the voters are given a chance to assess the issue positions, personal qualities, and programs of the candidates. For these reasons, debates typically draw large audiences, larger than any other campaign event (Kraus, PETER R. SCHROTT is Assistant Professor of Communications at the Free University of Berlin/West Germany. The author thanks Steve Finkel, Lutz Erbring, and Dorothy Davidson for their comments and criticisms of this paper. Also appreciated is the helpful advice of Helmut Norpoth, Alan Abramowitz, and Shanto Iyengar at an earlier stage of this research. This article is a revised version of a paper delivered at the 1988 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Public Opinion Quarterly 54:567-585 ? 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-04/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.103 on Wed, 18 May 2016 07:02:12 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 568 Peter R. Schrott 1962 and 1979; Graber, 1978). For the social scientist, debate research has centered on assessing the impact of these contests on the individual voter, on his or her evaluations and knowledge of the various participants, and on changes in vote intentions that may be due to information presented during the debate (Abramowitz, 1978; Bishop, Meadow, and Jackson-Beeck, 1978; Becker et al., 1980). Numerous studies have analyzed televised debates and the electorate's reaction to them. We have learned, for example, that the audience is very interested in the event (Katz and Feldman, 1962), and gains some information about candidates' personalities and issue stands (Lang and Lang, 1962 and 1979; Miller and MacKuen, 1979; for the West German context see Baker, Norpoth, and Schonbach, 1981). Abramowitz (1978) studied the impact of the 1976 U.S. debates on the rationality of voting decisions and found strong evidence of a persuasion effect, in that the voters adopted the issue position taken by their preferred candidate. Many other studies also demonstrate information gains and reinforcement of preexisting partisan tendencies resulting from debate exposure (Weiss, 1976; O'Keefe and Mendelsohn, 1979). While it has been shown that people do learn from debates, and to a somewhat lesser extent, that debates affect the respondent's evaluation of the candidates (see also Kraus and Davis, 1976), it has never been conclusively demonstrated that debates affect vote choice. In this paper, I examine the direct and indirect influences that debates have had on West German voting behavior through the relatively unexplored concept of the debate "winner." The results show that by selecting a particular candidate as the winner, West German voters in all elections since 1972 were more likely to evaluate that politician more positively, more likely to evaluate his opponents more negatively, and ultimately more likely to vote for the winner's party. Debates, then, strongly influence vote choice in the West German
Book•
26 Oct 1990
TL;DR: In the age of the American Revolution, the political issues surrounding John Wilkes, the colonies, and parliamentary reform agitated the nation, and recent studies of party ideology and voting behavior have shown how these national issues divided England as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: In the age of the American Revolution, the political issues surrounding John Wilkes, the colonies, and parliamentary reform agitated the nation, and recent studies of party ideology and voting behavior have shown how these national issues divided England. But subsequent work on the peerage and Anglican political theory has depicted a more placid, deferential populace. This book engages the discussion by drawing attention to the social and political activities of the English Dissenters. The Nonconformists' legal standing, social status, and political behavior help illumine a number of unexamined causes for both the social stability and the political stresses of Hanoverian England. Legal inequities provoked strong opposition to the government's American policy from the dissenting elite, and while the ministers' publications suggest the depth of popular discontent, previous accounts have been unable to show how popular sentiment was transformed into radical behavior. By comparing sermons, political pamphlets, and election ephemera to poll books, city directories, and baptismal registers, this book offers an integrated approach to the study of ideology and behavior.
Book•
16 Mar 1990
TL;DR: In this article, the future of political action in Western democracies is discussed, the theory and measurement of political actions, the social background, political action ideology and political action values, the political action dissatisfaction, and the general political action generations and families.
Abstract: The theory and measurement of political action the social background of political action ideology and political action values and political action dissatisfaction and political action the general model of political action generations and families in conclusion - the future of political action in Western democracies.
TL;DR: This paper examined the roll call voting behavior of state senators in Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana on three areas of interest to blacks: redistributive issues, civil rights and liberties, and issues with an overt racial component.
Abstract: Studies of legislative responsiveness to black constituents which have been based on Congressional roll calls have consistently found no relationship between the black proportion of the constituency and various measures of responsiveness. This paper examines the roll-call voting behavior of state senators in Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana on three areas of interest to blacks: redistributive issues, civil rights and liberties, and issues with an overt racial component. The measure of black voting strength in the constituency has a positive and usually significant impact on support scores in all three legislatures. When only white legislators are analyzed, the black voting strength variable loses explanatory power but generally remains positive.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the majority of writers on party competition only inadequately consider the other half of the coin, namely, electoral behavior, and they seek to examine a more complete conception of party competition.
Abstract: Over thirty years ago Duverger set out a paradox which still stands. "We find ourselves in a vicious circle: a general theory of parties will eventually be constructed only upon the preliminary work of many profound studies, but these studies cannot be truly profound so long as there exists no general theory of parties." I In large part the academic attack on this problem has been piecemeal; very few authors have attempted to consider a general theory of parties. Those who have attempted such a study-and who we will consider in a moment-have tended to focus upon party competition as the main problem to be attacked. Even here, however, the approach has been piecemeal in that the majority of writers on party competition only inadequately consider the important "other half" of the coin, namely, electoral behavior. In this paper we seek to examine a more complete conception of party competition. The plan of attack is to develop an explicit model of voting behavior and a set of consequences for party behavior. After this we turn to empirical evidence of both the voting model and party behavior. We begin, however, by elaborating upon our contention that inadequate attention to voters has been a downfall of models of party competition. In order to make this task manageable, we will divide the literature somewhat arbitrarily into formal and nonformal or comparativist, beginning our discussion with the latter. To a fairly large extent the traditional comparativist models of party competition have been grounded in implicit, and often idiosyncratic, models of voting behavior, the general impact of which is to build up a picture of political parties as either being unable to move policy positions or being able to move almost at will. A few examples will serve to illustrate this point. First let us examine those who see parties as being able to move freely throughout a policy space. The earliest examples of this view are expressed by Michels and Kirchheimer who see the old socialist or class-mass parties as being able to abandon their old, radical positions and move to become centrist or "catch-all" parties.2 Objections to this "sell out" are seen to come mainly from within the party organizations themselves and not from the voters. That is to say, for example, Socialist and Communist parties, once they manage to overcome internal opposition, can move to become centrist parties with little or no electoral penalty, a picture that is clearly at odds with the difficulties postwar Communist parties have experienced in selling their belief in the "parliamentary road to socialism" to European voters.
TL;DR: The authors found that union members and their families were more likely to vote for candidates endorsed by the AFL-CIO's Committee on Political Education (COPE) than were individuals who did not belong to a union and lived in households containing no union members.
Abstract: The authors investigate whether, as commonly believed, union members and their families strongly support the political candidates endorsed by union leaders Using 1978 data on US Senate, US House of Representatives, and gubernatorial races, they find that union members, and to a lesser extent the nonmembers in their families, were more likely to vote for candidates endorsed by the AFL-CIO's Committee on Political Education (COPE) than were individuals who did not belong to a union and lived in households containing no union members The authors suggest several alternative explanations for this pattern of voting behavior and discuss the implications of their results for unions' political strategy
Posted Content•
TL;DR: A growing body of literature suggests that the demand for public goods is driven both by self-interest and by altruistic motives as discussed by the authors, and the political arena has been a major testing ground for this hypothesis.
Abstract: While classical economic theory suggests that the demand for private goods is motivated by economic self-interest, a growing body of literature suggests that the demand for public goods is driven both by self-interest and by altruistic motives. The political arena has been a major testing ground for this hypothesis. Recently, a number of studies have tried to empirically isolate and determine the importance of economic versus "ideological" factors in explaining political choices by representatives (Kau and Rubin 1979; Peltzman 1984; Kalt and Zupan 1984). While congressional voting records have provided a rich source of data for empirical analysis, a consensus opinion on the importance of self-interest versus altruism has not been reached and remains controversial. Altruistic motivations have also been
TL;DR: For instance, the authors argue that failure to understand the decisionmaker's perception of the constraints of the political context may result in labelling as error or distortion behavior which is quite reasonable when viewed from the perspective of that context.
Abstract: By failing to take into account the essential features of the political context, all three major competing approaches to decision-making, analytical, cognitive, and motivated, exhibit serious deficiences in explaining decisionmaking behavior in the political arena. In particular, failure to understand the decision-maker's perception of the constraints of the political context may result in labelling as error or distortion behavior which is quite reasonable when viewed from the perspective of that context. In order to remedy these deficiencies, psychological theories about decision-making processes must be combined with the insights of political scientists into the nature of the political process to develop a specifically political theory of decision-making. Such a genuinely interdisciplinary collaboration between political science and psychology could result in a theory of political decision-making which truly belongs in the realm of political cognition.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined sex differences in ratings of attractiveness and competence of 44 men and women in the U.S. House of Representatives and found that women voters showed a marked pro-female sentiment, and men were neutral, evaluating male and female politicians similarly.
Abstract: Recent national attention has focused on women's voting behavior because of this group's increasing power to determine outcomes of local, state, and national elections. Research has not established whether males and females use the same “decision rules” in evaluating political candidates. Because of the link between perceived physical attractiveness and many positive attributes, the present study examined sex differences in ratings of attractiveness and competence of 44 men and women in the U.S. House of Representatives. Results indicated that males and females use similar rules in evaluating male politicans' attractiveness. Women show a pro-female sentiment in evaluating female politicians' competence. Physical attractiveness was positively related to perceived competence for both male and female politicians. Contrary to previous research, women voters showed a marked pro-female sentiment, and men were neutral, evaluating male and female politicians similarly.
TL;DR: Weimann et al. as mentioned in this paper studied the effect of media coverage of pre-election polls on voters' preferences and found that the style of reporting polls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, where predictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes.
Abstract: The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media has stimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters. Data for this study come from a content analysis of all press reports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel (1969-88). The findings highlight the impressive increase of poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press. Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reporting polls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, where predictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. In addition, although the reports have become more detailed and informative, they still do not adequately define or interpret methodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examines the intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and prediction errors. The fact that the independen't variable, media coverage of polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusion of this factor in any study of polls' effects. The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media has aroused interest in the effects of such media coverage on voters' preferences. A recent survey of studies on these effects (Donsbach, 1987) reveals the lack of consistency in empirical evidence regarding the nature and the magnitude of the polls' influence. Several studies and reviewers of public opinion research argue that there is no significant change in public attitudes or voting behavior (e.g., Atkin, 1969; Klapper, 1960; Mendelsohn and Crespi, 1970; Roshwalb and Resnicoff, 1971) while the "strong effect" claimers find support in the ideas and findings of Noelle-Neumann (1973, 1974, 1976, 1984), calling for a "return to the concept of powerful mass media." The reason for this lingering debate and the confusing findings may GABRIEL WEIMANN is Associate Professor of Communications and Chair of the Department of Sociology at Haifa University, Israel, and Visiting Professor at the Institut fur Publizistik, Universitat Mainz, Germany. The study was supported by a research grant from the Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, West Germany. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 54:396-408 ? 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-03/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.157 on Mon, 01 Aug 2016 04:42:43 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 397 The Obsession to Forecast be a combination of several factors such as: (a) the general debate on media effects (see reviews by Katz, 1980 and 1988); (b) the multidimensionality of the effects (the political effects of publicized polls may involve cognitive, affective, or behavioral influences or various combinations of these dimensions); (c) short-term versus long-term effects; (d) direct and indirect effects; and (e) changes in media coverage of polls. The coverage of polls varies across societies and cultures, across political systems and regimes, and over time. This makes crosscultural and longitudinal comparisons less valid. The polling industry has changed and so have the relationships between the media and the polling agencies (Gollin, 1988; Shamir, 1986). The fact that the indepedent variable itself, that is, the presentation of polls in the media, may have changed over time is another potential explanation for the inconsistency among studies that focus only on the effects. The present study focuses on the last factor: it examines the changes in press coverage of polls during six political campaigns in Israel.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the voting records of U.S. senators on three recent international trade bills and found that protectionism is especially associated with liberal ideology, high import impact, and low export dependence.
Abstract: In this study, we analyze the voting records of U.S. senators on three recent international trade bills. Our objective is to assess the importance of ideology and constituent interest as forces that influence protectionist vs. free trade voting behavior. The methodology uses discriminant analysis supplemented with expert judgement. The first conclusion is that ideology is the more important force in generic protectionism issues, and local constituent interests are more important for commodity-specific issues. Second, we find that protectionism is especially associated with liberal ideology, high import impact, and low export dependence. Although the discriminant analysis outperforms expert judgement in classifying protectionist vs. free trade votes in two of the three bills studied, the best explanation is obtained by using both methods together.
TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic model of voter behavior is discussed, explaining transitions in party choice by imputed party responsibilities with respect to public and private consumption possibilities, using a group framework to explicitly describe voter interests.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored whether an individual's information about politics is influenced by the political environment in which the person is located and determined whether and how political environment influences one's attention to and retention of political information.
Abstract: This research explores whether an individual's information about politics is influenced by the political environment in which the person is located. It seeks to determine whether and how the political environment influences one's attention to and retention of political information.
TL;DR: For instance, this paper found that cognitive factors such as lack of interest and a generalized cynicism about politicians are better predictors of intention to vote than background factors. But, unlike existing US evidence, low social status is not a predictor of non-voting in this British sample.
Abstract: The great bulk of research into the psychology of voting behavior has been concerned with accounting for partisan preferences and political actions, particularly of unconventional kinds Despite the fact that some 30% of the UK and over 50% of US electorate fail to vote at general elections, little direct attention has been paid to accounting for nonvoting and political apathy in general Utilizing British data from teenagers participating in the E SR C's 16-19 Initiative (n = 2200) we will attempt to demonstrate the following: (1) That it is possible to predict those who explicitly intend not to vote by knowing about levels of cognitive factors such as lack of interest and a generalized cynicism about politicians (2) That such cognitive factors are better predictors of intention to vote than background factors Indeed, unlike existing US evidence, low social status is not a predictor of nonvoting in this British sample (3) That levels of political interest are based upon past educational achievement and existing beliefs about the political system These findings will be discussed in the context of schema theories current within cognitive political psychology
TL;DR: In this paper, two logit models are presented to explain voter turnout and voter choice for a referendum considering a millage increase to finance a new high school building, incorporating attitudinal variables, along with demographic and economic variables.
TL;DR: The authors found that the degree of racial bloc voting and political mobilization often determines outcomes not only of elections but also of voting rights lawsuits in the South Carolina state election in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2008.
Abstract: Over the last quarter century, major changes in Southern social structure have been accompanied by more positive white attitudes on racial issues. Has voting behavior reflected these changes? The question has important consequences. The degree of racial bloc voting and political mobilization often determines outcomes not only of elections but also of voting rights lawsuits. Data from 130 black/white elections in South Carolina were used to determine rates of racial polarization and mobilization. Bloc voting remained high. Other variables had little explanatory power. Some secondary factors helped explain variations in the generally high levels of polarization by race.