Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1993"

A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context

Abstract: A large literature has demonstrated that such economic factors as growth, inflation, and unemployment affect the popularity of incumbents within many democratic countries. However, cross-national aggregate analyses of "economic voting" show only weak and inconsistent economic effects. We argue for the systematic incorporation of political factors that shape the electoral consequences of economic performance. Multivariate analyses of 102 elections in 19 industrialized democracies are used to estimate the cross-national impact of economic and political factors. The analyses show that considerations of the ideological image of the government, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential to understanding the effects of economic conditions on voting for or against incumbents.

Response latency versus certainty as indexes of the strength of voting intentions in a cati survey

Abstract: Comparaison de deux comportements politiques : l'intention de vote et le comportement electoral. Etude des notions d'accessibilite (intention de vote) et de certitude (comportement electoral), qui stucturent le champ du comportement politique.

An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories

Abstract: Do polls simply measure intended voter behavior or can they affect it and, thus, change election outcomes? Do candidate ballot positions or the results of previous elections affect voter behavior? We conduct several series of experimental, three-candidate elections and use the data to provide answers to these questions. In these elections, we pay subjects conditionally on election outcomes to create electorates with publicly known preferences. A majority (but less than two-thirds) of the voters are split in their preferences between two similar candidates, while a minority (but plurality) favor a third, dissimilar candidate. If all voters voted sincerely, the third candidate — a Condorcet loser — would win the elections. We find that pre-election polls significantly reduce the frequency with which the Condorcet loser wins. Further, the winning candidate is usually the majority candidate who is listed first on the poll and election ballots. The evidence also shows that a shared history enables majority voters to coordinate on one of their favored candidates in sequences of identical elections. With polls, majority-preferred candidates often alternate as election winners.

On the (mis)measurement of legislator ideology and shirking

Abstract: In this paper, we show that current statistical measures of legislator's shirking are implicitly based on the electoral concept of a unique majority rule equilibrium point in the policy space where elections are contested. We note that such equilibria do not exist generically and present statistical results showing that cross-sectional regressions where legislators' voting indices are predicted by district average demograhic and economic data are mis-specified. We also discuss a weaker equilibrium construct, the uncovered set, and present statistical evidence showing that differences in voting behavior between Senators from the same state are positively related to the heterogeneity of the electorate. We argue that current evidence alleged to show shirking by Senators is equally consistent with Senators who perfectly represent an idiosyncratic constituency that cannot be represented by district average data.

The presidential pulse of congressional elections

Abstract: An intriguing phenomenon in American electoral politics is the loss of seats by the president's party in midterm congressional elections. Between 1862 and 1990, the president's party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 32 of the 33 midterm elections. In his new study, James Campbell examines explanations for these midterm losses and explores how presidential elections influence congressional elections. After reviewing the two major theories of midterm electoral change - the "surge and decline" theory and the theory of midterms as referenda on presidential performance - Campbell draws upon each to propose and test a new theory. He asserts that in the years of presidential elections congressmen ride presidential coattails into office, while in midterm elections such candidates are stranded. An additional factor is the strength of the presidential vote, which influences the number of seats that are won, only to be lost later. Finally, Cambell examines how the presidential pulse may affect electoral accountability, the relationship between Congress and the president, and the relative strength of Congress, the president, and political parties. He explores the implications of the presidential pulse for understanding electoral change, evaluating the American voter's competence, and assessing the importance of split-ticket voting. Including both election returns and survey data, this work offers a fresh perspective on congressional elections, voting behavior, Congress, and the presidency.

Time series evidence on shirking in the U.S. House of Representatives

Abstract: This paper presents time series evidence on the voting behavior of members of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1975 to 1990. The empirical results indicate that voting behavior of individual congressmen is remarkably stable over time. We find no evidence of economically significant last term effects on voting behavior, nor are there important effects of legislative tenure on voting patterns. The most significant deviations in voting behavior occur for congressmen who failed to win their reelection bid, suggesting that sizable deviations from previous policy positions may result in swift retribution by constituents in the district.

Time series evidence on shirking in the U.S. House of

Abstract: This paper presents time series evidence on the voting behavior of members of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1975 to 1990. The empirical results indicate that voting behavior of individual congressmen is remarkably stable over time. We find no evidence of economically significant last term effects on voting behavior, nor are there important effects of legislative tenure on voting patterns. The most significant deviations in voting behavior occur for congressmen who failed to win their reelection bid, suggesting that sizable deviations from previous policy positions may result in swift retribution by constituents in the district.

Political Sophistication and the Use of Candidate Traits in Candidate Evaluation

Abstract: Most research on voting behavior has attempted to explain how individuals, in general, determine their candidate preference. Recently, however, some scholars have concluded that we must recognize that different individuals make these evaluations differently. Knight (1985) found that political sophistication affected the extent to which individuals rely on issues and ideology when evaluating presidential candidates. This paper finds that political sophistication has little systematic impact on the relative use of candidate's personal traits in evaluating the candidates.

Political Economy: Institutions, Competition and Representation

Abstract: The contents of this volume are drawn from the seventh International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics, and represent recent advances in the development of concepts and methods in political economy. Contributors include leading practitioners working on formal, applied, and historical approaches to the subject. The collection will interest scholars in the fields of political science and political sociology no less than economics. Part I outlines relevant concepts in political economy, including implementation, community, ideology, and institutions. Part II covers theory and applications of the spatial model of voting. Part III considers the different characteristics that govern the behaviour of institutions, while Part IV analyses competition between political representatives. Part V is concerned with the way in which government acquires information held by voters or advisors, and Part VI addresses government choice on monetary policy and taxation.

The Impact of Churches on Political Behavior: An Empirical Study

Abstract: Introduction Toward a Theory of Church Contextual Influence on Political Behavior County Concentrations of Religious Adherents: A Test of Three Election Years Churches, Voting, and Party Identification Churches and Political Attitudes Church Contexts and Individual Self-Evaluations The Political Influence of Church Discussion Partners Conclusions: The Political Relevance of Churches as Contexts Appendix Bibliography Index

Nomination Choices: Caucus and Primary Outcomes, 1976-88

Abstract: Primaries and caucuses now determine the Democratic and Republican parties' presidential nominations. While several political scientists have investigated the voting behavior of individual primary voters (Abramson et al. 1992; Bartels 1988; Geer 1989; Keeter and Zukin 1983; Marshall 1984; Norrander 1986, 1992; Wattier 1983a, 1983b; Williams et al. 1976), aggregate results of primaries and caucuses have scarcely been studied. Primary and caucus outcomes foster publicity, contributions, and, perhaps, voter support for some candidates in what is commonly called momentum, while forcing other candidates from the field. Aggregate vote totals allocate convention delegates for each state, and delegate totals ultimately decide the nominations. While individual decisions make up aggregate outcomes, we are left to make inferential leaps from studies of individual voters when what we really need to understand is the collective outcome. In this vein, presidential primary researchers need to follow the lead of congressional scholars who find it necessary to understand both the aggregate dynamics of and the individual voting behavior that underlie the loss of seats by the presidential party in offyear congressional elections. Flaws in three previously published aggregate analyses of presidential primary and caucus returns hamper us in our ultimate goal of making generalizations about the outcomes of these vital contests. Two of the works ignore caucuses (Bartels 1988; Grush 1980); two analyze only candidates from one party in one election year (Grush 1980; Parent, Jillson, and Weber 1987); and one ignores the dynamic elements of nomination contests (Parent, Jillson, and Weber 1987).

Does Redistricting Make a Difference?: Partisan Representation and Electoral Behavior

Abstract: Chapter 1 Introduction: Defining the Gerrymander Chapter 2 The Court's Approach to Gerrymandering and Representation Chapter 3 The Political Science Model of Voting Behavior and Its Importance for Redistricting Analysis Chapter 4 Theories and Methods of Gerrymandering Analysis Chapter 5 The States as Political Units Chapter 6 The Impact of Redistricting and Incumbency on Voting Behavior Chapter 7 Conclusion: Political Science, Representation, and Politics

Racial Cleavage in Local Voting: The Case of School and Tax Issue Referendums.

Abstract: Since the early 1970s there has been a dramatic increase in this country in voting on ballot propositions. Indeed, tax and financial referendums alone number more than 7,000 each year, and public schools in many localities depend on bond issue votes for much of their monetary support. Voting on issues is important in that it enables the public to bypass the normal "conversion" process of representative government and to directly determine public policy. As significant and common as this form of "direct democracy" has become, there is still much we do not know about political behavior in local referendums, especially the voting behavior of Blacks. Participation in local referendums fluctuates considerably but generally is relatively low, even below 10% on occasion (Hamilton, 1970). Such participation depends somewhat on the issue, but there is often variation in voting rate by group. Blacks, for instance, are less likely than Whites to vote on ballot propositions (Magleby, 1984). Relatively low participation among Blacks is likely for two reasons: Blacks generally turn out in lower rates than Whites, and Blacks "roll-off," or vote in fewer of the issues on the ballot than Whites (Benjamin & Marcus, 1990; Magleby, 1984; Vanderleeuw & Engstrom, 1987). If both of these situations occur simultaneously, Blacks are then doubly underrepresented when these electoral decisions are made. Local school issues have, at least in the past, served as a focus for racial polarization at the polls. Neighborhoods in most commu-

The Third 1992 Presidential Debate: Channel and Commentary Effects

Abstract: The 1960 presidential election between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy ushered in an advanced technique of democracy: the televised political debate. Since 1976, debates have accompanied every presidential election and have emerged as central events in presidential campaigns. In their classic review of studies of the 1960 debates, Katz and Feldman explained that televised debates function to focus the public's attention on the national drama of the political campaign. During debates, candidates' political messages take shape through the power of television. In an analysis of the 1976 debates, Sears and Chaffee wrote, "Debates seem to be much more attractive media events than are the usual one-sided partisan communications in that they are likely to draw much larger audiences". To this day, presidential debates continue to be among the most watched programs ever broadcast, far surpassing typical audience shares (Hellweg, Pfau, & Brydon, 1992). American voters watch or listen to political debates to learn about issues, to learn about personalities, to decide who to vote for, and to fulfill a sense of civic obligation (Sears & Chaffee, 1979). The experimental research reported here focused on audience reactions to the third 1992 presidential debate between George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ross Perot. This study attempted to measure viewers' perceptions before, during, and after the debate and to distinguish effects based on the variables of channel (radio vs. TV) and exposure to network news commentary. Since the first televised presidential debate in 1960, debate research has focused on three primary areas: (1) the effects of decided versus undecided voters; (2) the effects of viewers' perceptions on candidates' issues and images; (3) the effects of preexisting candidate preferences and party affiliation, especially concerning "who won" the debate (Bystrom, Roper, Gobetz, Massey, & Beall, 1991). Most research supports the position that debates affect viewers' decision-making in some way. Sears, Freedman, and O'Connor (1964) argued that the uncommitted voter is open to a great deal of influence while watching televised presidential debates. In 1983, an ABC news poll confirmed that a large portion (58 percent) of the voting age public claim that they rely on debates more often than television news or candidate advertisements for decision-making. In summarizing the effects of the 1960 debates between Kennedy and Nixon, Katz and Feldman (1962) found that debates reinforced partisan interests and helped undecided voters select a preferred candidate. This research on voting behavior helped to dispel the myth of the "independent voter:" the ideal citizen who does not make up his mind until election eve. After viewing the debate, undecided voters determined who they perceived as the winner and adopted a voting preference for a particular candidate (Katz & Feldman, 1962). Roberts (1979) reconfirmed these findings by determining that subjects who had trouble deciding for whom to vote failed to use televised debates as an information source. In addition, Becker, McCombs, and McLeod (1975) discovered that voters who viewed the debates on a regular basis were the most likely to change their initial preferences and to make final voting decisions after the debate ended. Moreover, a study by Biocca and David (1988) indicated that undecided voters take an active role in the decision-making process. Using continuous automated response dials, these researchers determined that undecided voters gave both Bush and Dukakis the most favorable ratings when the two candidates discussed campaign issues. In the 1960 election, four televised debates were held between the two candidates. According to Hellweg, Pfau, and Brydon (1992), television presented opposing images of the two candidates: "This was due to Nixon's pallid complexion, use of a gray suit against a similarly colored background, refusal to wear makeup, and weight loss after hospitalization, in stark contrast to John Kennedy's youthful look and athletic appearance (see, for example, Kirkpatrick, 1979; Mazo, Moos, Hoffman, & Wheeler, 1962; Mickelson, 1972; Siepmann, 1977; Tiemens, 1978; and White, 1961)". …

The House Divided: Ideological Polarization Over Aid to the Nicaraguan "Contras"

Abstract: This study analyzes voting patterns in the House of Representatives on aid to the Nicaraguan contras during the 98th, 99th, and 100th Congresses, in order to examine three theoretical issues: the importance of ideology as a determinant of congressional voting behavior, the relative importance of conversion and member replacement in explaining congressional policy shifts, and the impact of changes in contextual factors on members' voting decisions. As in many recent studies of defense and foreign policy issues, the member's ideology proved to be the predominant factor in explaining contra aid votes. Party and region were also significant, but the constituency's ideology and the electoral vulnerability of members were not. Though membership replacement was a key factor in the shifting balance between the pro-contra and anti-contra blocs, replacement alone was not sufficient to explain changes in the House majority. Conversion was equally important and proved to be a function of President Reagan's standing in the polls and of events in central America that altered the political atmosphere of the debate. Public opinion on the contra aid issue and the content of aid proposals showed no effect. The war in Vietnam shattered the bipartisan consensus that had supported U.S. foreign policy since World War II, inaugurating a period of renewed congressional activism (Franck and Weisband 1979; Holsti and Rosenau 1984; Crabb and Holt 1988). During Ronald Reagan's presidency, no issue better exemplified the tension between Congress and the executive than did policy toward Nicaragua. Convinced that vital U.S. security interests were at stake, President Reagan was determined to aid so-called contra rebels in their bid to overthrow the Sandinista government. Liberal Democrats, especially in the House of Representatives, were determined to stop the war. The debate over Nicaragua helped define a new balance of power between Congress and the executive branch in foreign policy. Over seven years, neither side in that debate was able to win a definitive victory. To opponents of contra aid, it seemed that, no matter how many times they voted the program down, it always managed

Manipulation and Consent: How Voters and Leaders Manage Complexity

Abstract: Pluralistic sophistication and belief systems Criteria of sophistication Issues, parties, and voting The nature of issue publics Political issues and electoral outcomes Political issues, political culture, and ideology Strategic voting Evaluating parties, leaders, and candidates Conclusions and practical implications

Reassessing the “freshman effect”: The voting bloc alignment of new justices on the United States Supreme Court, 1921–90

Abstract: Part of the conventional wisdom about the United States Supreme Court is the presumed existence of a “freshman effect,” a distinct pattern of behavior thought to be associated with newly appointed justices. Among other things, freshman justices are thought to be less likely than their senior colleagues to vote with established ideological blocs on the Court. The empirical evidence for the freshman effect in voting on the Court is somewhat ambiguous, however. In order to test for a freshman effect in the voting behavior of new justices on the Supreme Court, we examined the behavior of all justices on the Court between 1921 and 1990. Voting blocs were determined from the justices' interagreement scores, using the widely employed criterion developed by Sprague (1968). We found no evidence of a freshman effect during the time frame under study. Freshman justices do not differ from their senior colleagues with respect to bloc voting. We conclude that the freshman effect hypothesis is erroneous, at least with respect to the supposed nonalignment behavior of neophyte justices.

Voting in India: Effects of Economic Change and New Party Formation

Abstract: Like voters elsewhere in the world, Indian voters live in a political environment of conflicting influences, some of which encourage political continuity while others promote change. How do they choose, and why do they change their votes from one election to another? Does Indian voting behavior support prospective or retrospective voting theory? India has had ten general elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Parliament, from 1951 to 1991. The Congress Party, usually led by Jawaharlal Nehru or one of his descendants, has won eight of them but failed in two-1977 and 1989. Although the Congress Party got 49.3% of the vote in 1984 and only 34.5% in 1977, a range of about 15%, the fluctuation has usually been only about 5% between 40% and 45%. These fluctuations are most commonly attributed to various public activities,' e.g., Indira Gandhi's promise to get rid of poverty in 1971, her repressive and autocratic rule before the 1977 election, internal strife in the Janata Party before the 1979 election, sympathy for the party of an assassinated leader in the 1984 (Indira) and 1991 (Rajiv Gandhi) elections, and governmental corruption in 1989. Such issue-oriented explanations may be intuitively persuasive, and indeed may sometimes be correct, but they leave a key question unanswered: why do these issues or conditions become salient in some elections and not others? Political parties often have promised to solve economic problems; both the Congress and Janata par-

Urban Constituencies, Regimes, and Policy Innovation in the Progressive Era: An Analysis of Boston, Chicago, New York City, and San Francisco*

Abstract: Perhaps no single aspect of the American polity has been more analyzed, discussed, cited for evidence in grand theories of American political development, and yet less understood than the role of the urban voter in the regime formation and policy innovation of the Progressive era (circa 1890–1920). One century of prolific urban political analysis has produced an abundance of evidence, theory, and keen insight, yet we still have nothing like a systematic survey of urban voting behavior using reliable multivariate methods in more than a few elections or comparatively across several cities simultaneously. As a consequence, we have built for the urban voter a city of theoretical models without an adequate empirical infrastructure.

When Do Campaigns Matter? Informed Votes, the Heteroscedastic Logit and the Responsiveness of Electoral Outcomes

Abstract: Previous research suggests that voters in mass elections tend to be badly informed. If these voters do not know enough about the relationship between the policy consequences of electoral outcomes and their own interests, then electoral outcomes may not provide meaningful expressions of voter interests. Can campaign activity affect the relationship between voter interests and electoral outcomes? To answer this question, we use survey data from 35 comparable elections and a new empirical methodology (Dubin and Zeng's [1991] heteroscedastic logit). The new methodology allows us to estimate the joint effect of voter information and interests on voting behavior in a way that is both theoretically justifiable and better at explaining the available data than traditional methods. We find that campaign activity increases the likelihood that electoral outcomes are responsive to (perhaps, otherwise badly informed) voter interests, when campaigners are able to exert costly and observable effort, are able to make credible statements and have the opportunity to engage in a vigorous and competitive campaign.

Australian Election Study, 1993

Abstract: The 1993 Australian Election Study is the third in a series of surveys beginning in 1987 which have been timed to coincide with Australian Federal elections. The series also builds on the 1967, 1969 and 1979 Australian Political Attitudes Surveys. The Australian Election Studies aim to provide a long-term perspective on stability and change in the political attitudes and behaviour of the Australian electorate, and investigate the changing social bases of Australian politics as the economy and society modernise and change character. In addition to these long-term goals they examine the political issues prevalent in the election and assess their importance for the election result. The 1993 survey replicates many questions from the 1987 and 1990 Australian Election Studies, but also introduces a variety of new questions including a section on foreign affairs and defence, and attitudes to Federal and State government. As in previous surveys, other sections covered the respondent's interest in the election campaign and politics, their past and present political affiliation, evaluation of parties and candidates, alignment with parties on various election issues, evaluation of the economic situation and economic policies, attitudes to a range of environmental issues, and attitudes to contemporary social policy issues including equal opportunity, censorship, migration, assistance for aborigines, abortion, criminal law, expenditure on social services, the monarchy and the Australian flag. Background variables covered include level of education, employment status, occupation, type of employer, position at workplace, trade union membership, sex, year and place of birth, parents' birthplaces, parents' political preferences, father's occupation, length of residence in state or territory, religion, marital status, number of children, income, and where applicable, the occupation, trade union membership and political preference of the respondent's spouse.

Economic Efficiency, Political Institutions and Policy Analysis

Abstract: The authors focus on the implications for policy research and advice if they adopt either a strictly economic perspective or if they extend theoretical modeling to include political behavior and to account for the existence of political institutions. They examine the nature of policy analysis in models centering on a social planner, on expected vote maximization, and on majoritarian choices subject to possible instability of outcomes. Special attention is given to the treatment of project evaluation, budget size, tax structure and reform in the different perspectives, and to the meaning of efficiency in a context that includes political behavior and institutions. Copyright 1993 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG

Cycles and chaos in political party voting—a research note

Abstract: Several studies have shown cycles in the vote for political parties in American presidential elections, raising the question of whether cycles are unique to two‐party systems. This study extends the investigation of cycles to parliamentary elections in several countries that have multiple political parties: Japan, Germany, Norway, and Canada. Phase‐space analysis, a graphical method, is used to show that these countries have a variety of cyclic voting patterns in the distribution of votes among their political parties. Voting cycles may be associated with significant changes in the political party system and with stability of the government. Voting in presidential elections in Alabama is shown to have some characteristics of chaotic change, which is an extreme form of cyclic behavior. The possibility of chaos in voting behavior raises important research issues.

Racial attitudes and voting behavior in the 1988 national elections: liberals versus conservatives

Abstract: To further investigate liberals versus conservatives, data on racial attitudes are related to voting behavior in the 1988 national elections for President of the United States and for races for the U.S. Senate and for the House of Representatives. The sample size ranged from 537 to 1,154 people surveyed in a national representative sample of voters. Results link conservatism to belief that the government should not help blacks and/or that the civil rights movement is pushing too fast for their goals. Liberals are more favorable to helping blacks. The data are consistent with previous findings linking conservatism and prejudice, and contradict the view that racial attitudes do not relate to behavior.

Economic performance and U.S. Senate elections: A comment

Abstract: This paper investigates the issue of economic performance and U.S. Senate elections analyzed by Bennett and Wiseman (1991) in a work published in this journal. Our study analyzes the electoral margins and election outcomes of U.S. Senate elections using state-level data involving only incumbents up for reelection in the 1976–1990 period (212 elections). The ordinary least squares and logit estimation results suggest that the effects of economic performance variables on incumbent senatorial elections are in general overshadowed by other factors known to be important in determining electoral margins and outcomes. In addition, the empirical results of the entire model are in general consistent with prior findings noted in the public choice and political science literature concerning the analysis of U.S. Senate elections. Therefore, we suggest that the findings raised in our study provide enough theoretical and empirical evidence to raise sufficient doubt regarding the robustness of the results suggested by Bennett and Wiseman (1991), and thus call upon other researchers to study further the relationship between economic performance and voting behavior in U.S. Senate elections.

Electoral Dynamics in South Korea Since 1981

Abstract: The analysis of election results from South Korea presented in this paper is one part of a cross-national study of electoral dynamics in several countries, including the Nordic countries, Britain, Italy, the United States, and Japan. The object of the study is primarily to assess the general applicability of the logit methodology for ecological analysis of election results, formulated by Thomsen (1987). In a "most different systems research design," as recommended by Przeworski and Teune (1970), South Korea was chosen as a supposed extreme case marked by volatile electoral behavior during the critical transformation from authoritarian regime to emergent democracy (Billet, 1990; Han, 1989). It is, of course, possible to find more extreme cases in third world countries, but one advantage with the case of Korea is that direct election fraud in counting the votes has been a minor problem in recent elections (C. Park, 1988a, p. 64). The general approach in the analysis is to identify possible causes of the electoral dynamics at four different levels: the national, the regional, the local district, and the individual levels. While actual election results are well suited for the study of electoral dynamics on the first three levels, the estimation of individual voting behavior by the method of ecological inference is more controversial. However, in a country like South Korea, where survey results on individual voter mobility is either not available or of questionable validity, we believe that ecological estimates of voter mobility can provide important clues concerning the possible motives of the individual voters.1