Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 2004"

Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior

Abstract: Part I. Introduction: 1. Do rules matter? 2. Classifying electoral systems 3. Evaluating electoral systems Part II. The Consequences for Voting Behavior: 4. Party systems 5. Social cleavages 6. Party loyalties 7. Turnout Part III. The Consequences for Political Representation: 8. Women 9. Ethnic minorities 10. Constituency service Part IV. Conclusions: 11. The impact of electoral engineering.

Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U. S. House

Abstract: There are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation. In one view, voters can affect candidates’ policy choices: competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center. In this view, elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise. In the alternative view, voters merely elect policies: politicians cannot make credible promises to moderate their policies, and elections are merely a means to decide which one of two opposing policy views will be implemented. We assess which of these contrasting perspectives is more empirically relevant for the U. S. House. Focusing on elections decided by a narrow margin allows us to generate quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of a “randomized” change in electoral strength on subsequent representatives’ roll-call voting records. We find that voters merely elect policies: the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator’s voting behavior. For example, a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the Democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties’ nominees to the left. Politicians’ inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition-induced convergence in policy.

NOT YOUR PARENTS' POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION: Introduction for a New Generation

Abstract: ▪ Abstract The field of political socialization is often stereotyped in terms of some of the earliest work in the field and is neglected outside certain areas of American political behavior. However, the continuing and vibrant stream of work in political socialization holds potential for addressing many critical issues across American, comparative, and international politics. This article discusses three themes: the construction of a more genuinely comparative field of political socialization, a reconsideration of the relevance of childhood to politics following its virtual abandonment by the field for many years, and the importance of understanding the origins of preferences. Cidadania nao tem tamanho/Tamanho nao e documento. You don't have to be big to be a citizen/Size is not important. Augusto Sergio Suares Dutra, a 10-year-old Brazilian, quoted in Guerra 2002, p. 77

Personalizing Politics: A Congruency Model of Political Preference.

Abstract: Modern politics become personalized as individual characteristics of voters and candidates assume greater importance in political discourse. Although personalities of candidates capture center stage and become the focus of voters' preferences, individual characteristics of voters, such as their traits and values, become decisive for political choice. The authors' findings reveal that people vote for candidates whose personality traits are in accordance with the ideology of their preferred political party. They also select politicians whose traits match their own traits. Moreover, voters' traits match their own values. The authors outline a congruency model of political preference that highlights the interacting congruencies among voters' self-reported traits and values, voters' perceptions of leaders' personalities, politicians' self-reported traits, and programs of favored political coalitions.

Social Structure and Citizenship: Examining the Impacts of Social Setting, Network Heterogeneity, and Informational Variables on Political Participation

Abstract: In this study, we develop a model of the interplay between sociostructural determinants of an individual's discussion behavior, such as the setting of primary discussion networks (work, church, and volunteer groups) and the nature of discussion (i.e., level of exposure to non-like-minded ideas), and individual-level outcomes, such as hard news media use, political knowledge, and participation in political processes. In doing so, we synthesize many of the different and sometimes competing models that political communication scholars have used to examine the link between more macroscopic sociological variables and the individual-level behaviors that political scientists often focus on. Data to test our theoretical model come from a national telephone survey conducted in October and November 2002. Our analysis showed that the social setting in which citizens discuss politics is an important antecedent of political participation. Discussion networks as part of volunteer groups, for example, indeed serve as im...

Blind Retrospection. Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks

Abstract: Students of democratic politics have long believed that voters punish incumbents for hard times. Governments bear the responsibility for the economy in the modern era, so that replacing incompetent managers with capable alternatives appears to be a well-informed, rational act. However, this vision of a sophisticated retrospective electorate does not bear close examination. We find that voters regularly punish governments for acts of God, including droughts, floods, and shark attacks. As long as responsibility for the event itself (or more commonly, for its amelioration) can somehow be attributed to the government in a story persuasive within the folk culture, the electorate will take out its frustrations on the incumbents and vote for out-parties. Thus, voters in pain are not necessarily irrational, but they are ignorant about both science and politics, and that makes them gullible when ambitious demagogues seek to profit from their misery. Neither conventional understandings of democratic responsiveness nor rational choice interpretations of retrospective voting survive under this interpretation of voting behavior.

The Feeling of Rationality: The Meaning of Neuroscientific Advances for Political Science

Abstract: Recent advances in the neurosciences offer a wealth of new information about how the brain works, and how the body and mind interact. These findings offer important and surprising implications for work in political science. Specifically, emotion exerts an impact on political decisions in decisive and significant ways. While its importance in political science has frequently been either dismissed or ignored in favor of theories that privilege rational reasoning, emotion can provide an alternate basis for explaining and predicting political choice and action. In this article, I posit a view of decision making that rests on an integrated notion of emotional rationality.

The Radical Right Gender Gap

Abstract: In this article, the author argues that a gender gap exists in the vote for the radical right and that this gender gap can be explained using techniques drawn from the literature on mainstream gender gaps. The analysis emphasizes the impact of the immigration issue on the vote for the radical right. Logit and regression analysis are used to determine what can be explained by structural, situational, and political factors versus gender alone in France, Germany, and Austria. It is found that there is a gender gap, but it varies across the three cases; that attitudes toward political issues, particularly immigration, have a disproportionate impact on the probability of voting radical right but not on the gender gap specifically; and that there is a difference between men and women on the immigration issue, and blue-collar workers are more likely to be anti-immigrant than those in other sectors.

Comparing Political Communication: Political News Journalists: Partisanship, Professionalism, and Political Roles in Five Countries

Abstract: Most empirical studies of journalists' thinking and decision-making processes have been conducted as case studies of individual countries. They suffer from a considerable shortcoming insofar as they lack a larger context for assessing the validity of their findings. However, the question of how significant these findings are can be answered by use of comparative analyses, which include a range of different countries. The relevance of international comparative studies is demonstrated, for instance, when we examine the influence that journalists' political beliefs exert on their professional actions. To be sure, case studies of a particular national context can provide a basis for describing the beliefs of journalists in the respective country and the impact of these beliefs on the daily work in newsrooms. Yet, such case studies give no clue as to how much their findings have been influenced by characteristics of the respective media and political systems. The national context must therefore be eliminated if we want to get a clear picture of the connection between the political views of journalists and their professional decisions. This can be achieved by conducting a systematic comparison of various countries with differing media systems and political situations. Apart from its cross-national perspective, this approach also provides a formidable basis for categorizing the state of each country on an international scale. Journalists in Western democratic societies operate under similar legal, political, economic, and cultural conditions. They enjoy formidable legal protections, have considerable access to those in power, and are backed by substantial news organizations.

Fatal Attraction The Effects of Mortality Salience on Evaluations of Charismatic, Task-Oriented, and Relationship-Oriented Leaders

Abstract: A study was conducted to assess the effects of mortality salience on evaluations of political candidates as a function of leadership style On the basis of terror management theory and previous research, we hypothesized that people would show increased preference for a charismatic political candidate and decreased preference for a relationship-oriented political candidate in response to subtle reminders of death Following a mortality-salience or control induction, 190 participants read campaign statements by charismatic, task-oriented, and relationship-oriented gubernatorial candidates; evaluated their preferences for each candidate; and voted for one of them Results were in accord with predictions The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered

The Origin of Politics: An Evolutionary Theory of Political Behavior

Abstract: In this article we propose that evolutionary biology can supply political science with a theory of the ultimate causes of human preferences and behaviors that it otherwise lacks. For the most part, political scientists are either unfamiliar with the social side of evolutionary theory or misidentify its key features. Far from being genetically deterministic or leading exclusively to predictions that all human behavior will be selfish, modern evolutionary theories stress that adaptive behavior is frequently characterized by a guarded sort of cooperation. We describe modern biological theory, offer our own version of it, discuss new and potentially useful interpretations of political attitudes and public policies, and present scientific evidence, drawn from research on autistic individuals and monozygotic and dizygotic twins, of the startlingly important role genetics plays in shaping politically relevant attitudes and behaviors.

Testing Theories of Discrimination: Evidence from Weakest Link*

Abstract: Contestant voting behavior on the television game show Weakest Link provides an unusual opportunity to distinguish between taste‐based and information‐based theories of discrimination. In early rounds, strategic incentives encourage voting for the weakest competitors. In later rounds, the incentives reverse and the strongest competitors become the logical target. Controlling for other characteristics, both theories of discrimination predict that in early rounds excess votes will be made against groups targeted for discrimination. In later rounds, however, taste‐based models predict continued excess votes, whereas statistical discrimination predicts fewer votes against the target group. Although players are voting strategically, evidence of discrimination is limited. There is little in the data to suggest discrimination against women and blacks. I find some patterns consistent with information‐based discrimination toward Hispanics (other players perceive them as having low ability) and taste‐based...

Introduction to Political Psychology

Abstract: Political Psychology: Introduction and Overview. Personality and Politics. Cognition, Social Identity, Emotions, and Attitudes in Political Psychology. The Political Psychology of Groups. The Study of Political Leaders. The Political Psychology of Mass Politics: How Do People Decide for Whom to Vote? The Political Psychology of the Media in Politics. The Political Psychology of Race. From Ethnic Conflict to Genocide. The Political Psychology of Nationalism. The Political Psychology of Social Movements. The Political Psychology of Terrorism. The Political Psychology of International Security and Conflict. Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation. Glossary.

Political science, political ideas and rhetoric

Abstract: The article reviews ‘ideational’ analysis and theory in political science. It argues that this is an important area of research limited by lack of a clear sense of what ideas in politics are and of how to analyse them as directly as possible. It is argued that political science should learn from the ‘rhetorical turn’ in various areas of the social sciences, developing ways, appropriate to political science, of analysing the language, rhetoric and argumentation of political and policy discourse in its governmental contexts. Such an approach rests on a strong sense of the dynamic, contested and creative nature of political activity.

Government Responsibility and Electoral Accountability in Federations

Abstract: Because federalism can be a threat to accountability, a model of voting behavior infederations must accommodate voters' attributions of responsibility to each order of governmentfor policy outcomes. This study uses a panel survey of Canadians in both federal and provincial elections to ask whether voters are able to hold governments accountable in afederal context. Voters may ignore issues where responsibility is unclear, they may reward or punish both the federal and provincial governments to the same degree, or the confusion ofjurisdiction may sour them on the government or even the political system. Canadians who blamed both governments for problems in health care did not take this judgment to their voting decision in either the 2000federal election or the 2001 elections in Alberta and British Columbia, while those who could identify primary responsibility did so. Federalism and intergovernmental policymaking may reduce voters' ability to hold their governments accountable. If the practice of federalism departs from a "watertight compartments" model it can complicate voters' efforts to hold governments accountable. At a minimum, accountability involves principals (voters) removing their agents (governors) if the principals judge the effects of the agents' actions to be unsatisfactory. However, when voters in a federal system evaluate government performance, voting "retrospectively,"' they must assess the degree of responsibility each order of government bears for a given policy outcome. This is not simple, given the myriad intergovernmental arrangements now common in federations. Adding to the confusion, governments complicate matters deliberately, passing the buck and stealing credit.2 There is little impartial, expert opinion that might guide voters in finding the truth amidst intergovernmental bickering or even intergovernmental cooperation. Under these conditions, voters who see something amiss may find it difficult to translate that judgment into an effective voting decision. This concern is not specific to federalism. It resonates with both the voluminous American literature on divided government and with a growing AUTHOR'S NOTE: The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, in the form of a post-doctoral fellowship and a grant under the Federalism and Federations program, and of the co-investigator on this study, Matthew Mendelsohn. Previous versions of this research were presented at the annual meetings of the Canadian and American Political Science Associations in 2002. I thank Chris Kam and Kathy Harrison for comments on a previous version of this article.

The European Union at the Ballot Box?: European Integration and Voting Behavior in the New Member States

Abstract: Scholars have developed a large body of knowledge on the domestic underpinnings and effects of European integration. Students of the European Union (EU) have devoted considerable attention to the s...

The Urban Voter: Group Conflict and Mayoral Voting Behavior in American Cities

Abstract: Karen Kaufmann's groundbreaking study shows that perceptions of interracial conflict can cause voters in local elections to focus on race, rather than party attachments or political ideologies. Using public opinion data to examine mayoral elections in New York and Los Angeles over the past 35 years, Kaufmann develops a contextual theory of local voting behavior that accounts for the Republican victories of the 1990s in these overwhelmingly Democratic cities and the "liberal revivals" that followed. Her conclusions cast new light on the interactions between government institutions, local economies, and social diversity. The Urban Voter offers a critical analysis of urban America's changing demographics and the ramifications of these changes for the future of American politics.This book will interest scholars and students of urban politics, racial politics, and voting behavior; the author's interdisciplinary approach also incorporates theoretical insights from sociology and social psychology. The Urban Voter is appropriate for both undergraduate and graduate level courses.Karen Kaufmann is Assistant Professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park.

Congressional Party Defection in American History

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the roll-call voting behavior of House and Senate members who changed party affiliation during the course of their political careers. We analyze members who switched during the stable periods of the three major two-party systems in American history: the Federalist-Jeffersonian Republican system (3d to 12th Congresses), the Democratic-Whig System (20th to 30th Congresses), and the Democratic-Republican System (46th to 106th Congresses). Our primary findings are that the biggest changes in the roll-call voting behavior of party defectors can be observed during periods of high ideological polarization and that party defections during the past 30 years are distinct from switches in other eras because of high polarization and the disappearance of a second dimension of ideological conflict.

Chronic Accessibility and Individual Cognitions: Examining the Effects of Message Frames in Political Advertisements

Abstract: This study examines the effects of media framing on voter cognitions and how such effects can be moderated by voters' chronically accessible schemas. Participants in this study were exposed to political ads that have been systematically framed as either issue oriented or character oriented. Results indicated that, although message frames could indeed prime audiences and generate related mental activations in political evaluations, these effects varied among those with different political schemas. When message frames were consistent with individual schemas, audiences were more likely to be affected than when message frames were inconsistent. They suggest that identifying individual-level factors in the study of framing effects might be an important link in understanding the dynamic relationship between media frames and audience responses.

Antipartyism and Third-Party Vote Choice A Comparison of Canada, Britain, and Australia

Abstract: The effect of antiparty sentiment on voting behavior is examined comparatively using recent individual-level electoral survey data from Canada, Britain, and Australia. The author distinguishes two dimensions of antipartyism: the rejection of traditional major-party alternatives (specific antiparty sentiment) and of political parties per se (generalized antiparty sentiment). He argues that disaffected voters in these countries are attracted to third or minor parties and support them to voice antiparty sentiments. The results show that in general, third parties benefit from specific antiparty sentiment at the mass level. The rejection of party politics per se, in contrast, brings citizens to abstain, unless some third parties—antiparty parties such as the Reform Party in Canada and One Nation in Australia—electorally mobilize generalized antiparty feelings. The results also indicate that compulsory voting in Australia affects disaffected voters’ behavior; in particular, those who reject all party alternativ...

Voice of the Diaspora: An Analysis of Migrant Voting Behavior ∇

Abstract: This paper utilizes a unique dataset on votes cast by Czech and Polish migrants in recent national elections in their home countries. The political preferences of migrants as manifested by their voting behavior are strikingly different from those of their home-country counterparts. In addition, there are important differences in voting patterns across migrants living in different countries. We examine three explanations of migrant voting behavior: adaptive learning; economic self-selection; and political self-selection. Our results suggest that migrant voting behavior is affected by the institutional environment of the host countries, in particular the democratic tradition and the extent of economic freedom. There is little evidence that differences in migrants’ political attitudes are caused by pre-migration self-selection with regard to political attitudes, or with regard to economic considerations. The results indicate that the political preferences of migrants change significantly in the wake of migration as migrants adapt to the norms and values prevailing in the host country. This change away from home could be the catalyst of a corresponding change at home.

The Views of an Advocatus Dei: political marketing and its critics

Abstract: This paper addresses 11 statements of criticism of political marketing. These statements represent the most commonly voiced issues and were collected from marketers and political scientists. While marketing theorists are more concerned with the state of political marketing theory, political scientists concentrate much of their criticism on aspects of political marketing management as it is experienced in practice. Each statement is discussed and general conclusions are identified. While presenting the personal opinion of the author (advocatus dei), these conclusions and statements concerning political marketing should foster critical discourse on issues such as political marketing management, concepts and ethics. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications

Two Egocentric Sources of the Decision to Vote: The Voter's Illusion and the Belief in Personal Relevance

Abstract: The decision to vote in a national election requires a choice between serving a social good and satisfying one's self-interest. Viewed as a cooperative response in a social dilemma, casting a vote seems irrational because it cannot have a discernible effect on the electoral outcome. The findings of two studies with undergraduate samples suggest that some people vote not because they set aside self-interest, but because they expect their own behaviors to matter. Two psychological processes contribute to this belief: the voter's illusion (the projection of one's own choice between voting and abstention to supporters of the same party or candidate), and the belief in personal relevance (the belief that one's own vote matters regardless of its predictive value for the behavior of others). The rationality of these two egocentric mechanisms depends on the normative framework invoked. Their relevance for actual voting behavior is indicated by their ability to account for four types of variation in turnout rates.

Branding in Politics—Manifestations, Relevance and Identity-Oriented Management

Abstract: In contrast to classical marketing, previous research on political marketing has barely considered the branding aspect. This is all the more surprising, given that on the one hand, political parties and their key representatives presumably fulfil the main criteria of an impact-oriented brand as a firmly anchored, consistent perceptual image in the minds of voters. On the other hand, there are many indicators that political brands are of considerable significance for voting decisions. In essence, the importance of brands for voting decisions on the part of the consumers derives from their branding functions, such as orientation aid in the form of an “information chunk” or risk-reduction function in the sense of a confidence surrogate. Based on the hypothesis that brand management thus constitutes a central challenge for the marketing of political parties, it is appropriate to investigate what approach seems best suited to managing political brands and how these should be formulated.

Place of Residence, Party Preferences, and Political Attitudes in Canadian Cities and Suburbs

Abstract: This article examines the degree to which divergence in voting behavior and political attitudes between inner cities and suburbs in Canadian metropolitan areas can be explained by place of residence. of of yet, there has been very little research done on this topic in Canada. Logistic regression models derived from the 1965, 1984 and 2000 Canadian national election surveys confirm that Canadian inner cities and (particularly, outer) suburbs are diverging, and place of residence has become increasingly important in explaining this divergence. Over the study period, residents of inner cities in Canada became more likely to vote for parties of the left and to hold attitudes that would be considered on the left of the political spectrum, while suburban residents were increasingly likely to vote for parties of the right and to hold attitudes on the right of the political spectrum. The research suggests that in Canada, as in the US, the place and context of suburbia is a factor in the shift to the right. This has implications for the future direction of welfare state policy.

Identities, Interests, and the Future of Political Science

Abstract: tioners have settled on the agenda, they must then determine what methods can best illuminate those topics. This essay argues that political science today needs to give higher priority to studies of the processes, especially the political processes, through which conceptions of political membership, allegiance, and identity are formed and transformed. To do this, we need to identify, to a greater extent than most political scientists have, the historical contexts of the conflicts and political institutions that have contributed to political identities and commitments, and our approaches must provide empathetic interpretive understandings of human consciousnesses and values. We cannot rely solely, or even predominantly, on efforts to identify abstract, ahistorical, and enduring regularities in political behavior such as those that prevailed during the behavioralist era of modern American political science. Nor can we depend primarily on approaches, ascendant in our discipline’s more recent “rational choice” phase, that enhance our formal grasp of instrumental rationality. 2 Those sorts of work can certainly offer important contributions, but in general they are most effective as elements in projects that rest extensively on contextually and historically informed interpretive judgments. Despite what some may fear, an increased focus on how political identities are formed and on their behavioral and normative significance need not mean abandoning aspirations to do rigorous social science in favor of purely thick descriptive or subjective accounts. Political scientists who study problems of political identity should still be able to develop less abstract theoretical frameworks that can help us to discern and explain both the origins and transformations of particular political identities and near-universal patterns of political conduct. We may also be able to develop some supra-historical theories about the means and mechanisms of consequential historical transformations in political affiliations and behavior. Even in our interpretive and contextual characterizations, moreover, we still have to conform as rigorously as we can, as King, Keohane, and Verba have rightly urged, to a unified “logic of scientific inference,” although we should not equate that logic with the particular statistical techniques, all necessarily limited, that are commonly used to approximate it at any given time. 3 If we are to judge, for example, to what conceptions of their identities and interests particular political actors are giving priority, we need to form some hypotheses based on what we think we know about those actors. Then, we define the different implications of alternative hypotheses. Finally, we look for observable data about their lives that we can use to falsify some of the hypotheses. That logic is constant, though the techniques of falsification will vary with the types of problems particular data present and with the tools currently at our disposal. Yet though the challenge of drawing reliable inferences is universal in social science, the most crucial work in analyzing political identities must often be done by immersing ourselves in information about the actors in question, and using both

Religious Social Networks, Indirect Mobilization, and African-American Political Participation

Abstract: This study examines the mobilizing effects of informal political discussions among African-American church attenders. Specifically, I focus on indirect political encouragement through congregant so...

A Great Divide? Religion and Political Change in U.S. National Elections, 1972–2000

Abstract: Since 1980 most social scientists have found little evidence in support of popular and recurring commentaries that identify religion (and evangelical Protestants, in particular) as a major source of conservative political trends in the United States. But in the past several years a new line of research has reported results suggesting that earlier studies underestimated evidence that partisan change among specific religious groups has contributed to an emerging Republican electoral advantage. We assess this latter body of research, presenting the most comprehensive analysis to date of the effects of religious group memberships on political outcomes in national elections from 1972 through 2000. We address the limitations of past studies by incorporating advances in the measurement of religious denomination, adjudicating competing statistical models of the changing interrelationship of religion and voter alignments and extending previous investigations by simultaneously considering the impact of religion on (1) voting behavior, (2) partisanship, and (3) the representation of religious groups within the Democratic and Republican parties' electoral coalitions. Our results refine and extend past studies of religion and political change, providing evidence of limited changes in group-specific voting coupled with much larger changes in religion-based partisanship and party coalitions.

Gender Turnover and Roll‐Call Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives

Abstract: A number of studies suggest that the gender of a legislator affects his or her congressional ideology. We argue that these studies may have produced misleading results because of insufficient controls for constituency influences. To better account for constituency effects, we use a longitudinal research design based on electoral turnover, which holds constituency constant while allowing gender and party to vary. We apply ordinary least squares regression to data from the 103d, 104th, and 105th Houses of Representatives and estimate the effect of gender turnover on changes in DW-NOMINATE roll-call voting scores. We find that, when we sufficiently control for both party and constituency influences, gender is not a determinant of the liberalness of a representative's roll-call voting behavior.